DFS Alerts
Boston (5.81) tops a 12 game slate with five teams above five implied runs
Five of 24 teams are projected between 5.21 and 5.81 runs tonight with three between 4.89 and 4.95 runs with Boston at the top of the pile against Jharel Cotton, who has the odd distinction of strong looking Statcast exit velocity numbers (86 mph aEV, 30.3% 95+ mph EV), but lots of HRs (26 over his last 17 starts). He’s allowed six in just the last two, but with a hard hit rate above 40% each time. The Red Sox don’t strike out a lot, but don’t hit for power either (9.6 HR/FB at home, 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Cotton has no real split with batters from either side above a .350 wOBA, below a 40 GB% and right around a league average hard hit rate. Among projected starters, Mitch Moreland is the only one who combines an above average wRC+ (101) with an ISO above .200 (.201) against RHP this year and just barely. Mookie Betts (98 wRC+, .185 ISO, 35.5 Hard%, 43.3 FB% vs RHP) and Dustin Pedroia (105 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP) each have a wRC+ above 240 over the last week, though Betts (53.3%) crushes Pedroia (18.2%) in hard hit rate. Rafael Devers (96 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) has shown some power as well. Seattle (5.57) is the only other team currently above five and a half runs. They face Martin Perez in Texas, which seems like an ideal spot, but Perez has a 51.3 GB% with a 24.2 Hard% over his last seven starts. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against him this season, but just a .308 wOBA with two HRs, a 53.3 GB% and 24.8 Hard% over this span. Nelson Cruz has crushed Perez in 21 PAs (.607 wOBA, three HRs, 104.7 mph aEV) and is certainly a top bat (126 wRC+, .172 ISO, 42.7 Hard% vs LHP), while Mitch Haniger (126 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP, 291 wRC last seven days) and Mike Zunino (122 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP) are interesting as well, but players may want to be more cautious when considering an all out assault on Perez, who has been managing contact well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jharel Cotton, Dustin Pedroia, Rafael Devers, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, Martin Perez
Players could be hesitant with Clayton Kershaw, who struggled in his second start back from DL
One game short of a full slate on Tuesday night with some incredibly expensive pitching at the top helps spread out hitter ownership expectations tonight, especially with only Robinson Chirinos (206 wRC+, .339 ISO vs LHP) currently projected for even 15% ownership on DraftKings for just $3.5K. A couple of Twins (Brian Dozier and Byron Buxton), along with a few other batters are projected in that range on FanDuel, but none for more right now. Players are expected to free up those salary dollars to pay up for Corey Kluber more than any other pitcher in a great spot against a diminished Detroit offense. There may be some hesitation on Clayton Kershaw, who struggled in his second start back from the DL against the Rockies and finds himself in another great spot in San Francisco tonight, though not necessarily a high strikeout one. He’s currently projected to appear in fewer than 10% of lineups on FanDuel tonight. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Robinson Chirinos, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton Potential for light rain in a few spots tonight
There aren’t any major weather concerns on tonight’s slate, but the Reds and Cardinals may have to play through some light rain tonight in St Louis as that game gets Kevin’s worst grade tonight at straight YELLOW. Light rain could appear in Cleveland late in the game between the Tigers and Indians, but isn’t currently much of a concern. In his evening forecast, Kevin touches on a couple of other games with a small risk of rain along with wind conditions. Read the full report on the Weather page and catch him on RotoGrinders Premium Chat from 6-7pm for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Willson Contreras returns from DL to bat cleanup, but won't play full game
Players considering rostering Willson Contreras tonight need to be aware that he’s not expected to play the full game in his first game back from the DL. Of course, there’s a chance he could generate enough value in a few plate appearances at a low cost ($3.6K DK/$2.9K FD), but it certainly diminishes the expected return.
As reported by: Megan Mawicke Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez tie for the lowest aEV on the board (84.5 mph)
Sean Manaea is one of three pitchers with average exit velocity above 88 mph tonight. His 88.9 mph aEV leads the slate, ahead of Robert Stephenson (88.5 mph) and Kyle Gibson (88.5 mph). Dylan Bundy sits at exactly 85 mph. Stephenson has also generated the highest frequency of Barrels on the slate 9.8% of batted balls with Eduardo Rodriguez (8.4%) and Marco Gonzales (8%) trailing. Only Gonzales (43%) and Manaea (41.1%) have allowed more than 40% of contact at an exit velocity above 95 mph more than 40% of the time. Some of these arms (Bundy, Stephenson, Rodriguez) may even be usable pitchers tonight due to recent strikeout proficiency, but there is certainly reason to be concerned and that doesn’t preclude using the right bat against them. Gibson generates enough ground balls (51.8%) to make attacking him a bit tricky and he’s also facing the Padres tonight. Manaea is certainly vulnerable to RHBs (.343 wOBA, 37.4 Hard%), while the Rangers have the highest implied run line on the board hosting Gonzales.
On the other end of the spectrum, nobody is planning on attacking Clayton Kershaw (84.5 mph aEV) in San Francisco and Gio Gonzalez may be a bit over-priced with an 85% strand rate this season and 6.6 SwStr% over the last month, but the work he’s done managing contact can’t be denied. He ties Kershaw for the lowest aEV on the board. Brent Suter (84.9 mph) is third, but has been allowing more hard contact to RHBs recently (5 HRs in 18 IP since start of August). Jon Gray has an 85 mph aEV, but that’s been climbing recently too. Blake Snell has allowed the lowest rate of barrels on just 4.3% of batted balls, but RHBs have a 32.9 Hard% against him this year (.336 wOBA). Suter, Gray and Gonzalez are all tied at 4.7% Barrels/BBE, just ahead of Joe Biagini (4.8%), who mostly does that by generating so many ground balls (57%). Suter (25%), Kershaw (26.6%), Gonzalez (27%) and Lance Lynn (27.9%) have all generated a 95+ mph EV on fewer than 30% of batted balls. So while Gio Gonzalez may not have the upside his strikeout rate suggests or estimators that come close to supporting his 2.50 ERA, he’s not necessarily someone players should look to attack either. It may be best to leave that entire matchup alone.
RHBs have a .414 wOBA and 42.4 Hard% against Nick Pivetta
The Miami Marlins have just a 4.63 implied run line right in the middle of the pack, but their RHBs may have the top matchup on the slate. While Nick Pivetta has a 27.1 K% over the last month, it’s not fully supported by just a league average 9.3 SwStr%, while RHBs have torched him for a 414 wOBA and 42.4 Hard% this year. Giancarlo Stanton has cooled off lately (60 wRC+, 26.7 Hard% last seven days), but he has a 148 wRC+ and .337 ISO vs RHP this season. He and Marcell Ozuna (143 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP) need to be considered strong plays tonight. An offense projected for an even lower run total (4.16), the Pirates shouldn’t be overlooked in Milwaukee for those seeking cheap bats. Brent Suter started his major league career strongly, but has been fading since the start of August (18.1 IP – 13 ER – 5 HR – 9 BB – 14 K – 84 BF). He’s faced 65 RHBs over that span, who have a .411 wOBA with all five of those HRs. Andrew McCutchen (179 wRC+, .362 ISO, 40.4 Hard%, 48.9 FB% vs LHP) homered last night and costs just $2.9K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Andrew McCutchen, Nick Pivetta, Brent Suter Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts are top projected hitters tonight
Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts head the RotoGrinders Player Projections on either site. After that, players begin to move up and down depending on which site players are looking at, though it’s generally the same group on either site. Lindor is in a great spot at home against Matt Boyd (RHBs .373 wRC+, 38.8 Hard%) and is joined by teammate Edwin Encarnacion among the top 10. Houston is the only other offense that places multiple batters in the top 10 with both George Springer and Jose Altuve projecting strongly against Garrett Richards. The reality is that they’ll likely see a lot of the Angels’ bullpen with Richards having thrown just 52 pitches in his return from the DL. Betts and the Red Sox are hosting Sean Manaea. RHBs have a .343 wOBA and 37.4 Hard% against him this season. Overall, his 88.9 mph aEV is highest on the board and a 41.1% 95+ mph EV is second worst. Because there’s some extremely high priced pitching on the board, players may be looking for more value offensively. Chris Young (4.37 Pt/$/K) and Andrew McCutchen (3.8 Pt/$/K) project for a lot of it on FanDuel, while Matt Carpenter (9.38 Pt/$/K) is a top DraftKings value play.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Edwin Encarnacion, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Chris Young, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Carpenter Jose Quintana and Gio Gonzalez each exceed a 3.0 K/SwStr over the last month
Gio Gonzalez and Jose Quintana are two similarly priced left-handed pitching options tonight, the former with a 2.50 ERA and the latter is one of just four pitchers on the slate exceeding a 25% strikeout rate. Both may be over-priced. Quintana has a 27.9 K% over the last month, but just an 8.2 SwStr% (3.4 K/SwStr, league average is 2.1) and hasn’t gone more than six innings since his first start for the Cubs. While the Mets have a 16.8 K-BB% against LHP this year, they’ve turned over the majority of the power hitting left-handed portion of their lineup at this point. The Mets have a team 17.2 K% and 16.1 HR/FB over the last week. As always, and especially with the most active offenses during the trade deadlines, use PlateIQ to see the confirmed lineup when posted, which could be better or worse than perceived from looking at season long team statistics. Gonzalez continues to run estimators nearly two runs above his ERA. While he has excelled at suppressing hard contact (84.5 mph aEV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE, 27% 95+ mph EV) and has a -0.9 Hard-Soft% over his last 11 starts, he has just a 6.6 SwStr% (3.08 K/SwStr) over the last month and has been below 6% in four of his last six. A .248 BABIP and 85% strand rate are not considered long-term sustainable.
Other tagged players: Gio Gonzalez Corey Kluber's 35 K% and 16 SwStr% lead tonight's slate
Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw top Tuesday night’s 14 game slate on the pitching end. Kluber may be the safer of the two right now. He leads the slate with a 35 K% and 16 SwStr%. He had not struck out fewer than eight in a game he didn’t leave with injury since second start of the season until three starts back. He then struck out seven in two straight, but had 13 last time out. He’s completed seven innings in 14 of last 17 starts. The Tigers have a 20.0 K-BB% over the last week. Clayton Kershaw struggled to throw strikes, facing 21 batters in 3.2 innings (86 pitches), walking three. He still struck out seven. It happens and he’s still tied for lowest aEV (84.5 mph) and second best 95+ mph EV (26.6%). It’s a great overall spot for him in San Francisco (83 wRC+, 6.6 HR/FB at home, 81 wRC+, 7.3 HR/FB vs LHP). It quickly becomes dicey behind those two, though Justin Verlander struck out seven of 24 Mariners in six one run innings in his Astros debut and has a 25.1 K-BB% since the break. His .236 BABIP and 96 LOB% are not sustainable, while a GB and hard hit rate each at 31% has led to 11 HRs in these 10 starts. His 32.5 K% over the last month is the highest on the board among those with more than two starts and the Angels have a -4.4 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Gerrit Cole has an 18.8 K-BB% (25.3 K%) last 13 starts with a 3.3 Hard-Soft%. The Brewers have power (18 HR/FB at home and vs RHP), but strike out a ton (26% at home and vs RHP, 28% last seven days). Eduardo Rodriguez is one of just three pitchers on the slate with a strikeout rate above 25% and a double digit SwStr%. He can be a bit prone to hard contact in the air though. Dylan Bundy struck out fewer than eight for first time in over a month last time out. Still 11+ SwStr% for fifth straight and seven of eight. He too, is still prone to hard contact in the air though. Robert Stephenson’s 9.8% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board and he has walked 12 of last 75, but also struck out 25 of them. RHBs have a 36.8 K%, 15.8 Hard% over span, which is good to know in St Louis, a significant park upgrade from a power suppression standpoint. Sonny Gray has a league average 13.3 K-BB% since trade (seven starts) with an 11.7 SwStr%, 48.8 GB% and 26.2 Hard%. The Rays have a 24.9 K% vs RHP. Citi Field is a more negative run environment than Trop. Dillon Peters has struck out 14 of his first 47 major league batters with an 11% or better SwStr rate in both starts, plus a 67.9 GB% and 17.9 Hard%. He may get figured out soon and is not a top prospect with 40 FV grade (Fangraphs), but he’s in a great spot hosting the Phillies.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, Robert Stephenson, Sonny Gray, Dillon Peters Michael Taylor is the hottest batter in the league with a 331 wRC+ and three HRs over the last week
Michael Taylor (331 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest batter in the majors over the last week. He’s one of four exceeding a 300 wRC+ (10 PA min.) over the last seven days. All four are right-handed and he is the only one facing a right-handed pitcher. Julio Teheran has allowed a .332 wOBA to RHBs, but just a 24.7 Hard% this year. Asdrubal Cabrera (316 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, no HRs) and Robbie Grossman (314 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, two HRs) are grouped together because while each has a wRC+ exceeding 100 against LHP this year, each also has an ISO in the .080’s. Jose Quintana (RHBs .323 wOBA, 33.7 Hard%) and Travis Wood (RHBs .381 wOBA, 30.6 Hard%) are pitchers of differing quality however. Robinson Chirinos (306 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) is a great play at home against Marco Gonzalez (RHBs .423 wOBA, 32.5 Hard%) if he remains in the middle of the Texas lineup at home tonight. Stephen Piscotty (112 wRC+, 75 Hard%, one HR) is the only batter on the slate above a 70% hard hit rate over the last week. While he’s only made contact in 12 of his 20 PAs, he’s still hit nine of those balls exceptionally well with only five on the ground. No less than 12 batters (including Taylor) are tied for the slate lead with 12 HRs over the last week.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Robbie Grossman, Robinson Chirinos, Stephen Piscotty The Rangers (5.96) lead six teams projected above 5.4 runs on Tuesday night
Six of 28 teams have an implied run line between 5.41 and 5.96 on Tuesday with nobody else above 4.8 runs. There’s not much on the high end behind Kershaw and Kluber, but the slate is filled with marginal arms that probably don’t excite players one way or the other. The Rangers are on the top of the board, hosting Marco Gonzales, who has somehow turned an 11.1 SwStr% into just a 15.6 K%. He also has allowed the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the slate (43%). RHBs have a .423 wOBA and 32.5 Hard% against him this year. If Robinson Chirinos (206 wRC+, .339 ISO, 39.1 Hard%, 47.8 FB%) remains in the middle of the lineup, he’ll be a great value on DraftKings, where he’s the same price as FanDuel ($3.5K). The second best hitter against LHP for the Rangers has been…Joey Gallo (133 wRC+, .303 ISO), followed by Elvis Andrus (124 wRC+, .233 ISO). Nobody else has a wRC+ above 100, but Mike Napoli has a .274 ISO to go with his 86 wRC+ against southpaws. The Twins fall about a quarter of a run behind the Rangers (5.72). Since Travis Wood was traded to the Padres, RHBs have a .374 wOBA with nine HRs (28.4 GB%), which is actually an improvement on his .381 wOBA against RHBs for the season. Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) should mash, but among active batters, Byron Buxton has been the next best hitter against LHP (125 wRC+, .170 ISO) with Miguel Sano DL’ed. Nobody else on the roster combines a wRC+ and ISO above 100 against LHP this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, Marco Gonzales, Travis Wood, Byron Buxton Greg Bird scratched, Tyler Austin bats ninth
Greg Bird has been scratched from the Yankee lineup with lower back tightness. Tyler Austin will bat ninth. Considering that Jake Odorizzi actually has significant reverse splits (RHBs 42.2 Hard% this year), this may not be a downgrade. However, with Austin’s 49 career wRC+ (85 PAs) against RHP and spot in the order, the daily fantasy significance here is likely minimal.
As reported by: Yankees PR Dept. Other tagged players: Greg Bird Carlos Carrasco could help depress ownership rates of high cost bats.
Carlos Carrasco is expected to easily be the most popular pitcher on the site. With Zack Greinke having a questionable history against the Rockies (6 HRs in four starts this season) in a difficult park and Kenta Maeda (25.2%) the only other pitcher above a 25% strikeout rate on the slate, Carrasco is an obvious choice with a 30.9 K% and -32.7 Hard-Soft% over his last three starts. Despite just eight games tonight, Carrasco may somewhat depress the ownership of some of the highest priced bats tonight. Not a single batter is currently projected for even 20% of lineups tonight with Corey Seager the only one even above 15% on DraftKings. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Seager Weather activity possible in San Francisco tonight
While it’s rare that we see a west coast rain delay, there is the potential for such in San Francisco tonight. Do to the uncertainty and time frame (still over four hours out), Kevin currently has this game at YELLOW/ORANGE. It doesn’t look too dangerous right now, but aside from Kenta Maeda in a nice contact management spot, games in San Francisco generally aren’t too difficult to avoid if need be. Read the full report on the Weather page and catch Kevin in RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7PM with further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Five of tonight's pitchers have an aEV of 85.2 mph or less this season
Five of tonight’s 16 pitchers have an aEV of 85.2 mph or less this year all with less than 5% Barrels/BBE and 33% 95+ mph EV (three below 30%). Neither Carlos Carrasco, nor Zack Greinke are among that group. Kenta Maeda (84.9 – 4.6% – 29.3%) and C.C. Sabathia (84.4 – 4.1% – 29.5%) are probably names that won’t surprise anyone at this point in the season. Kyle Freeland (84.4 – 4.4% – 32.8%) might and he’s still going to be a pitcher players want to attack tonight considering that Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez are likely going to be in the opposing lineup. Among those with much smaller samples, Brandon Woodruff (84.7 – 3.1% – 32.3%) does come with some prospect hype, has started his career strongly and is in a nice spot against a weak hitting Pittsburgh offense. Chris Stratton (85.2 – 4.8% – 27.4%) pitches in a great park (San Francisco) against an ice cold offense tonight (43 wRC+, 27.4 K%, 8.2 HR/FB last seven days). He has struck out 10 in two of his last four starts, but no more than four in any of his other four starts this year and has not exceeded a 20.2 K% since A ball. On the other end of the spectrum are Reynaldo Lopez (89.5 – 9.1% – 36.4%), Ubaldo Jimenez (88.4 – 7.8% – 39.6%), and Ariel Miranda (87 – 9.5% – 34.1%). Lopez has some strikeout ability with an 8.8% or better SwStr% in all four starts, but a 28.8 GB% is not going to lead to a lot of favorable outcomes with that much hard contact. Jimenez should probably no longer be starting in this league. Miranda is tied of the league lead with 35 HRs allowed in just 156.1 innings (30 to RHBs).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: CC Sabathia, Joel Freeland, Brandon Woodruff, Chris Stratton, Reynaldo Lopez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ariel Miranda