DFS Alerts
Jose Ramirez has a league leading 336 wRC+ (62.5 Hard%, three HRs) over the last week
Jose Ramirez (336 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest hitter over the last week by wRC+ and all of the top four marks over the last week have more than 20 PAs. Ramirez is one of the top batters on the board outside of Coors tonight in a matchup against David Holmberg in Chicago (AL). An added benefit, Kevin forecasts some strong wind conditions blowing out to center. Mitch Haniger (303 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is the only other batter in the league with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. He has a more difficult matchup against Justin Verlander in his Astros debut, but he’s been known to allow some hard contact in the air to RHBs (.293 wOBA, 36.3 Hard% this year). Mike Trout (298 wRC+, 42.1 Hard%, one HR) is just generally this good. He has a 204 wRC+ and .374 ISO against RHP overall this season. His opponent (Kendall Graveman) only has the highest aEV (89.5 mph) and 95+ mph EV (42%) on the board. Welington Castillo (296 wRC+, 73.7 Hard%, five HRs) also has the highest hard hit rate above 12 PAs (Danny Valencia is at 80%, but has only made contact five times in 12 PAs with a 50 K%). C.C. Sabathia has excelled at generating weak contact recently, but all 15 of his HRs allowed this year have gone to RHBs. Chris Iannetta (209 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, two HRs) also exceeds a 70% hard hit rate over the last week. Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed a 37.7 Hard% to RHBs this year. Castillo is also tied for HR lead over the last week with one of Iannetta’s teammates, J.D. Martinez (273 wRC+, 60 Hard%, five HRs) and Matt Olson (218 wRC+, 47.4 Hard%, five HRs). Martinez famously hit four of them in one game on Monday night. Olson is now rocking a 156 wRC+ and .363 ISO (40.6 Hard%, 47.1 FB%) against RHP. Garrett Richards makes his second start of the season tonight and first since April. He threw just two minor league innings at AAA to prepare for tonight’s start against the A’s. All seven batters who made contact did put it on the ground though, but Olson and friends should be prepared to see a lot of bullpen tonight.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Mike Trout, Welington Castillo, Danny Valencia, Chris Iannetta, JD Martinez, Matt Olson
Rockies and Indians each have implied run lines above six tonight
The Colorado Rockies have an slate leading 6.83 run projection from Vegas tonight that’s well above the next highest team (Cleveland 6.04), who are a half run ahead of the rest of the pack themselves. In all, eight teams have an implied run line above five runs and four more above 4.8 on a full board. The Rockies are generally going to have an inflated run line at home and due to poor performance this season, they’ve often been a profitable fade at Coors, especially when facing competent pitching. Tonight, they face Ty Blach. He has just an 11.1 K% (6.4 SwStr%), but an 85.8 mph aEV and 3.8% Barrels/BBE (fifth best on the entire board), which often makes him a guy to completely ignore in a daily fantasy setting. However, we know that marginal contact travels farther at Coors and he’s also allowed six HRs over his last four starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in four of his last six starts. RHBs overall have a .347 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against him this season. Nolan Arenado (212 wRC+, .431 ISO, 36.1 Hard%, 49.1 FB% vs LHP) is today’s top overall bat with DJ LeMahieu (146 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP) and Trevor Story (153 wRC+, .373 ISO, 48.3 Hard%, 46.7 vs LHP) candidates for an abundance of exposure as well. Story even costs below $4K on either site because he’s been so terrible against RHP this year. Although Blach has handled LHBs well (.273 wRC+, 29.5 Hard%), Charlie Blackmon hits LHP very well (138 wRC+, .234 ISO). Players certainly shouldn’t be sleeping on Cleveland bats either. They are facing David Holmberg. He’s faced 373 RHBs in his career, allowing a .380 wOBA with 20 HRs (39.5 GB%, 22 Hard-Soft%). Jose Ramirez (125 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (122 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP) are perhaps the top batters outside Coors with Austin Jackson (164 wRC+, .221 ISO) a strong value if he remains near the top of the order.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Ty Blach, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Jackson, David Holmberg Danny Salazar "won't go too long" in his first start back from the DL
Salazar will make his return from the DL this evening, but after throwing just a 23-pitch simulated game at Class AA, he’s not expected to take on a full workload this evening. Terry Francona stated that the Indians “won’t go too long” with Salazar in his return, and while a strict pitch count may not be in play, his DFS potential is cratered by the fact that he’s unlikely to throw more than five innings. Play the fade on him tonight, but it won’t be long before Salazar is back on the DFS radar.
As reported by: Paul Hoynes
Julio Teheran to have start pushed to Wednesday, Luiz Gohara will start for ATL on Tuesday
Gohara will make his major league debut against the Rangers this evening, with Teheran’s start being pushed back a day to Wednesday. Gohara is a 21 year-old lefty who has exhibited plenty of bat missing ability in the minors, and he will get the advantage of facing the Rangers in an NL park where they’ll lose the DH. The right-handed bats on the Texas side are certainly viable tournament plays against an unproven lefty.
As reported by: Mark Bowman Andrew Cashner has a .229 BABIP versus LHB, despite a 6.02 xFIP
Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves s in search of his eighth quality start in his last 10 outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 5.45 SIERA on the season. With that said, he has been far from immune from a blow-up start from time to time and has certainly shown some cracks in the armor at times this season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 12.4% strikeout rate and high 8.8% walk rate, which should combine to make up a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 3.30 ERA that is mostly driven by his ability to limit hard contact to just 27.8% of the time. It’s frustratingly obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, we can at least bank on his struggles against left-handed hitters to continue down the stretch run. Against lefties, he still has the low strikeouts (12.4% K%) with a high line drive (20.3% LD%) and fly ball rates (42.7% FB%) to go along with just an insane .229 BABIP that has somehow failed to correct itself yet. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous amount of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to feel supremely confident about, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers, which make Freddie Freeman (173 wRC+, .440 wOBA, .313 ISO vs RHP) and Matt Adams (127 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .264 ISO vs RHP) the main Braves hitters to focus exposure and are elite plays on Monday’s night slate. Meanwhile, Ender Inciarte (103 wRC+, .333 wOBA vs RHP) and Nick Markakis lack elite skill sets but can definitely be considered as part of any Atlanta stack given Cashner’s major deficiencies to left-handed bats. The trickier side of this matchup is the Braves righties since Cashner owns a 57.9% groundball rate and a below-average 27.5% hard hit rate, which are skills he’s consistently exhibited in the past and likely are sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the likelihood of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to Braves right-handed batters, which shouldn’t be too difficult given how uninspiring they are, to begin with, against right-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Andrew Cashner
No noteworthy weather concerns for Monday's night slate of games
It’s a relatively quiet night across Major League Baseball in terms of weather, as there are zero games on Monday’s 5-game night slate with any threat of rain. There are a couple spots with possible wind advantages for hitters, so be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Five Rangers hitters have an ISO of .221 or higher versus RHP this season
R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts, but he always seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming rotation. This year, maintained his low strikeout rate, currently sitting at 17.3% to go along with an 8.5% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.5%) and limit hard contact to just 26.0% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 3.91 ERA continuing to improve with a 4.81 SIERA on the year. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Texas Rangers more of a stacking option in tournaments Monday night since there should be plenty of baserunners with a decent probability of home runs but difficult to predict where this production will come from. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Gomez (119 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .360 ISO vs RHP) both have massive strikeout rates that should be mitigated by Dickey’s inability to induce swings and misses, making them the clear top targets from this Rangers offense, while Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Nomar Mazara (.190 ISO vs RHP), Mike Napoli (.221 ISO vs RHP), and Rougned Odor (.229 ISO vs RHP) are more than likely second tier options but are logical members to round out a Rangers stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Monday night’s slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Gomez, Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor, Mike Napoli, Nomar Mazara, R.A. Dickey Jose Berrios has a 2.69 SIERA and 29.7% K-BB% in his last three starts
Berrios has broken out of his slump in a big way over his last three starts against the Chicago White Sox (twice) and Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing just three combined earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched while striking out 27 batters in the process. Despite the aforementioned rough patch, Berrios certainly seems to have figured it out at the Major League level for the most part and has officially “arrived” as the front-end of the rotation starting pitcher he had been continuously touted as during the last couple of seasons. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 115:35 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.1% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last year. Berrios has also been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 27.4% hard hit rate, and though that mark may be somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a couple percentage points over time. Clearly, it’s very easy to see that Berrios is a great young pitcher with strikeout potential (23.4% K%) who has discovered decent control in the big leagues. Tonight, he does draw a suboptimal matchup with a powerful Tampa Bay Rays squad that ranks 7th in wRC+ (102), 15th in wOBA (.323), and 6th in ISO (.192) versus right-handed pitching. The Rays do strike out at a lofty 24.9% clip, checking in with the third-worst mark in the Majors by less than a percentage point, which should obviously greatly favor Berrios this evening. So, on a slate with several similarly priced, borderline elite arms, Berrios is just as likely to post a tournament winning score as any of them and although it would have been nice to see a couple less left-handed batters in the Tampa Bay lineup Monday night, Berrios remains a borderline cash game target and more than viable in large-field tournaments given potential upside in this spot against the free-swinging Rays offense.
As reported by: FanGraphs Justin Smoak, Kike Hernandez both have three HRs with a 96 mph aEV against opposing pitcher tonight
While other sites (DailyBaseballData) add three additional PAs for Kike Hernandez, both he and Justin Smoak have very similar numbers against the pitchers they are facing tonight. Hernandez has three HRs (five extra base hits) in 27 PAs against Robbie Ray. Smoak has three HRs (four extra base hits) in 30 PAs against Rick Porcello. While Smoak has a 96.6 mph aEV on eight Statcast recorded BBEs in this matchup, Hernandez holds the velocity (96.1 mph) on twice the number of batted balls (16) against Ray. While these are two of the better pitchers on a small slate, both have struggled with the amount of hard contact they’ve allowed to opposing batters with the platoon advantage. RHBs have a 40.7 Hard% (39.4 GB%) and Ray. LHBs have a 43.2 Hard% (34.7 GB%) against Porcello.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Robbie Ray, Rick Porcello Boston and Atlanta have the top implied run lines on the night slate, but face weak contact inducing pitchers
The five game night slate has just one team with an implied run line above five (Boston 5.35) with Atlanta the only other offense within a half run (4.81). There are reasons for caution in both cases however. J.A. Happ faced Boston in his last start too. Coming into that start, he had struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts with an 11.2 SwStr% in August. Since the All-Star break (eight starts), he had a -1.4 Hard-Soft%, muting contact to batters from both sides of the plate over that span (hard hit rate below 23%). While he allowed just one run over six innings in that start, he walked four and struck out just two. The Red Sox have just a 6.1 K-BB% vs LHP, so that’s not a major surprise, but Happ had a 72.2 GB% in that game and Boston has just a .138 ISO vs LHP this year. Considering Boston bats in the projected lineup with more than 50 PAs against LHP this year, Hanley Ramirez (.239) and Mookie Betts (.155) have the top ISO marks (Rafael Devers has a .242 ISO in 37 PAs). The Braves face Andrew Cashner, who has survived with terrible peripherals due to a 48.5 GB% and 27.8 Hard%. While he’s shown no real platoon split in terms of wOBA and hard hit rate this year, LHBs have a ground ball rate 20 points lower (37%) than RHBs (57.9%). Freddie Freeman (173 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP) is bravely and successfully battling through wrist issues, but is the only real threat LH threat against RHP in the lineup. Matt Kemp has a 113 wRC+ and .201 ISO vs RHP from the right side.
As reported by: Rotowire Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Cashner, Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp Padres have a 24.6 K% (7.4 Hard-Soft%) at home, 25.1 K% (7.0 Hard-Soft%) vs RHP
Carlos Martinez is the top pitcher on the day slate. Eleven of the 18 pitchers actually have higher strikeout rates over the last month than his 22.1%, but none can boast a ground ball rate above his 51.4% for the season, along with a very respectable 5.0% Barrels/BBE. He’s also facing a San Diego offense with a 24.6 K% (7.4 Hard-Soft%) at home and 25.1 K% (7.0 Hard-Soft%) vs RHP. While the ground ball rate holds up against batters from either side, Martinez stifles RHBs with a .262 wOBA adn 28.3 Hard%. LHBs have a much more potent .342 wOBA and 36 Hard% against him. Cory Spangenberg (129 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP) and Yangervis Solarte (118 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) are as good as it gets for the Padres from that side, the latter below $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte The Rockies have a day slate leading 6.55 Vegas run projection against Chris Stratton
The Rockies are implied for a day slate leading 6.55 runs today against Chris Stratton, though the Giants are a bit lower at just 4.95 runs. Chad Bettis is generally a low strikeout pitcher (16.8 K% career), but with a high enough ground ball rate (49.2% career) to limit damage, while teams haven’t been quick to catch onto his reverse splits either (LHBs .322 wOBA, RHBs .373 wOBA). Over his last three starts though, he’s allowed five HRs. In four total starts, his 82 mph aEV is lowest on the board. While the reverse split might lead players to Buster Posey, consider that he has just a .115 ISO vs RHP this year. Four of Bettis’s five HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, though LHBs have hit him harder overall (32.4 Hard%, 34.4 GB% vs 25.5 Hard%, 47.7 GB%) so far this year. That’s enough of a motive to move players more towards Denard Span (107 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP) and Joe Panik (98 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP) at the top of the order today. On the Colorado side, Chris Stratton has made four straight starts, striking out 10 in two of the last three. To make it even more confusing, he struck out just one Brewer on a 6.9 SwStr% in the start in between. Considering his 20.2 K% in 79 AAA innings was his highest mark since A Ball in 2014, perhaps we shouldn’t continue to see strikeout totals in the double digits. His perfectly average 20.3 K% and 9.7 SwStr% for the season might seem more reasonable, but is unlikely to help much in Coors. While LHBs have a .352 wOBA some 90 points higher than RHBS (.262), that’s mostly due to their 15.4 BB%. Batters from either side have a hard hit rate below 30%, though there’s another massive difference in ground ball rate (LHBs 32%, RHBs 56.1%). Charlie Blackmon (152 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP) is a top bat on any slate at Coors where he’s facing a RHP and today is no different. Nolan Arenado (97 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP), DJ LeMahieu (80 wRC+, .071 ISO vs RHP), Mark Reynolds (118 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) and Gerardo Parra (105 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP) all grade out well relative to the rest of the slate as well.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra, Chris Stratton, Chad Bettis, Buster Posey, Denard Span, Joe Panik Parker Bridwell has limited RHB to a .281 wOBA this season
The Angels starter has also limited opposing right-handers (190 faced this year) to a collective .125 ISO, but Bridwell has posted some notable handedness splits this season. For example, his 25.4% Hard-Soft% against LHB is far worse than his 10.9% rate to the opposite side. That’s a major reason why he’s allowed a .366 wOBA and .185 ISO to the 146 lefties he’s faced. On top of that, he’s given up a 44.1% fly ball rate to that side of the plate – a sharp rise from his 36.7% FB% to RHB – while forcing ground balls just 35.4% of the time. That sets up a great matchup for Oakland’s five lefties this afternoon with Matt Joyce, Matt Olson, and Jed Lowrie standing out as the top three choices to exploit Bridwell’s weaknesses. The trio have all posted fly ball rates between 46.5-47.1% against RHP this season, so they should have no trouble getting the ball in the air. Across 111 plate appearances, Olson has used a 38.5% Hard% to deliver a .316 ISO and .382 wOBA. His primary drawback is his high 29.7% strikeout rate, however, Bridwell K’s lefties at a poor 13.3% clip. Lowrie rarely strikes out as is (14.9%) and has also managed a strong 37.5% Hard%, although his .178 ISO is much lower than Olson’s and Joyce’s .252. Khris Davis and his .309 ISO against RHP is naturally the top righty to target, but he’s been cold recently. Over the past eight games, he’s batting .185 with a 44.4% K% and a lone homerun. Fortunately, he’ll be in a favorable strikeout matchup (Bridwell has a hitter-friendly 16.8% K% against RHB this year) and he has a good shot to overcome Bridwell’s tough batted ball profile considering his 43.7% FB% and 40.9% Hard% this season. With an implied total of just 4.36 runs, the A’s should fall under the radar in GPPs this afternoon. That makes Joyce, Olson, and Lowrie appealing tournaments targets given their favorable matchup with Bridwell.
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis
Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion both on the bench against James Shields
Cleveland is running the B squad out there this afternoon, without Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Yet, they are still the only team outside of Coors with an implied run line above six (6.15). Shields actually has a 24.4 K% with just a 28.2 Hard% over the last month, but still somehow managed a 22.2 HR/FB, while walking five with just three strikeouts in his last start in Minnesota. He’s allowed a HR in six straight starts (nine total), over which span, he’s actually dominated RHBs (.287 wOBA, 26.5 K%, 20.9 Hard%). LHBs continue to rake though (.399 wOBA, 21.5 K%, 38.2 Hard%). Jose Ramirez (143 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP) had a big day yesterday and has a 387 wRC+ (62.5 Hard%) over the last week. He’s one of the top plays on the slate and just $3.5 K on FanDuel. Lonnie Chisenhall (138 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP) is another value play for less than $4K on either site and batting cleanup today. Carlos Santana (122 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Francisco Liriano (95 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP) are also core parts of any stacks.
Other tagged players: Lonnie Chisenhall, James Shields, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor Jonathan Schoop has a 155 wRC+ and .306 ISO vs LHP this year
Jordan Montgomery misses bats at an above average rate (22.5 K%, 12.6 SwStr%) with an 86.7 mph aEV and respectable 31.1 95+ mph EV. The issue is that he generally doesn’t get very deep in games. He’s thrown 100 pitches only five times this year and more than 90 for the first time in six starts last time out. The Baltimore offense has a 109 wRC+ at home (17.4 HR/FB), 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 wRC+ over the last week (19.0 HR/FB). RHBs (which the Baltimore lineup almost entirely consists of) have a .302 wOBA and 27.8 Hard%, but with just a 39.9 GB% against him. The Orioles have an implied run line of exactly five runs (fourth most on the day slate) with Kevin’s forecast suggesting wind blowing out to center at 10 mph. While Trey Mancini has surprisingly struggled with LHP (83 wRC+, .138 ISO), Welington Castillo (174 wRC+, .256 ISO), Manny Machado (117 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Jonathan Schoop (155 wRC+, .306 ISO) are all serious threats. Tim Beckham (112 wRC+, .169 ISO), Adam Jones (100 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Mark Trumbo (106 wRC+, .176 ISO) have all been more average against southpaws this year.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham, Jordan Montgomery