DFS Alerts
A pair of red hot Joses (Ramirez and Martinez) have a wRC+ above 340 over the last week.
The three hottest hitters in the majors over the last week via wRC+ (10 PA min.) all share a name. Jose Ramirez (349 wRC+, 58.6 Hard%, five HRs), Jose Martinez (346 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, three HRs) and Jose Iglesias (282 wRC+, 38.9 Hard%, one HR) finally have their party broken up by Tommy Pham (281 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, two HR). While it’s not advisable to find Iglesias in your daily fantasy lineup under most circumstances, the other three certainly merit discussion. Ramirez is a no brainer tonight against Reynaldo Lopez (91.2 mph aEV, 11.6% Barrels/BBE through three starts) with the Indians implied for 5.35 runs. The Cardinals are facing Dinelson Lamet, who combines a 29.5% strikeout rate with improved contact management recently (-4.4 Hard-Soft% last seven starts). Martinez generally plays only against LHP, but could be rewarded for putting up over 50 FanDuel points last night. A pair of Diamondbacks, Chris Iannetta (209 wRC+, 70 Hard%, two HRs) and Paul Goldschmidt (104 wRC+, 70 Hard%, one HR) have hit the ball the hardest over the last week. The issue there is that Iannetta’s potency appears mostly against LHP and Goldschmidt has missed the last few days with an injury. Another Diamondback, J.D. Martinez (259 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, five HRs) joins Ramirez atop the Home Run leaders over the last week. Kendrys Morales (135 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, five HRs) has also hit five out, three in one game in Baltimore. If weather cooperates, he should have a favorable matchup in Boston against Doug Fister. However, the veteran right-hander has generated a 58.6 GB% and -3.4 Hard-Soft% over his last three starts. He’s faced just 35 left-handed batters, with a .227 wOBA and 0.0 Hard-Soft% over that span.
Other tagged players: Jose Martinez, Jose Iglesias, Tommy Pham, Chris Iannetta, Paul Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Kendrys Morales
Robert Gsellman will now start in place of Matt Harvey tonight, not Tommy Milone
Despite earlier reports on Wednesday, the New York Mets have now decided to start Robert Gsellman instead of Tommy Milone against Philadelphia Phillies tonight in place of Matt Harvey. Even with the pitching change, this move does very little to sway projections to either side as the Phillies remain a middling stack to target on Wednesday’s main slate while Gsellman is a less than intriguing starting pitching option, though his price tag is certainly low enough to roll out in large field tournaments on two-pitcher sites if so desired.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo via Twitter Other tagged players: Tommy Milone, Matt Harvey
The Rockies have a 6.58 run projection more than a run above any other team vs Johnny Cueto
The Rockies have a 6.58 implied run line that’s more than a run above any other team tonight. While their 82 wRC+ against RHP is not encouraging, neither is Johnny Cueto’s 8% Barrels/BBE with a hard hit rate above 32% to batters from either side of the plate this season. Of course, Charlie Blackmon (153 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP), but also any competent hitter against RHP from either side of the plate is in play here, including Nolan Arenado (97 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Mark Reynolds (117 wRC+, .246 ISO). Seven more teams on a 12 game slate are between 4.84 and 5.63 runs tonight, including the visiting team at Coors tonight, the Giants at 5.42 runs (third). Kyle Freeland has had an odd and unpredictable rookie season. He’s gone no more than six innings since the break and only that many three times despite increase in strikeout rate (22.1% over the last month). His GB rate is only 40% with 41.3 Hard% over that span. LHBs have a .284 wOBA, 26.9% K-BB%, 21.4 GB% and 41.2 Hard% over that span. RHBs have a .386 wOBA, 4.3 K-BB%, 46.7 GB%, 41.3 Hard%. How that pertains to figuring out which San Francisco Giants might be useful tonight is a great question. The Boston Red Sox are sandwiched in between the two with an implied run line of 5.63, though there are some reasons for caution here. Opposing pitcher Joe Biagini struck out 10 in his last outing and despite some struggles, does have a 57.7 GB% this year. The weather forecast is not very optimistic about conditions in Boston today either. Cleveland is projected for 5.35 runs and has a team 153 wRC+ that leads the majors over the last week. Reynaldo Lopez has some talent and a 22.5 K% through 60 major league innings, but in his first three starts this year (16 innings), he has a slate high 91.2 mph aEV (tied with Andrew Moore) and 11.6% Barrels/BBE.
Other tagged players: Johnny Cueto, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Kyle Freeland, Joseph Biagini, Reynaldo Lopez LHBs have a .347 wOBA and 38.5 Hard% against Gerrit Cole this year
One thing that we can always say about Joe Maddon is that he is situationally aware and more often acts upon that information than not. Tonight’s lineup against Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh is another such case. Facing a pitcher who has stifled right-handed contact (.290 wOBA, 25.6 Hard%) in a park that crushes right-handed power, he has lined up with six of eight position players left-handed tonight. LHBs have a .347 wOBA, 38.5 Hard% and 16 HRs against Cole this season. While Jason Heyward (86 wRC+, .133 ISO vs RHP) is probably not an ideal play in any situation anymore and Jon Jay (100 wRC+, .105 ISO vs RHP) needs production behind him, there are some solid plays in this lineup. Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) may still be a bit over-priced, but bargains may be found with Tommy La Stella (133 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP), Ian Happ (125 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP) and Alex Avila (140 wRC+, .221 ISO, 54.9 Hard% vs RHP). Gerrit Cole is still a good pitcher and has been productive even with this flaw against LHBs in recent starts (at least six IP in 11 straight, at least six Ks in six of seven), making all out stacks a questionable proposition, but there’s certainly some upside to utilizing cheap LH bats against him.
Other tagged players: Ian Happ, Tommy La Stella, Anthony Rizzo, Gerrit Cole, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay Start of Tuesday's TEX-ATL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as ORANGE in his updated weather forecast due to the likelihood of a rain delay. Unfortunately, a postponement cannot be fully ruled out either. So, clearly, this puts both starting pitchers and hitters at risk in this matchup. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page for more information. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Evan Grant Yankees @ Orioles to be delayed
The Orioles have announced that the start to their game with the Yankees will be delayed. Kevin had this game at ORANGE in his evening forecast with the delayed start expected.
As reported by: Baltimore Orioles Risk increased in Baltimore (ORANGE)
Kevin has increased the risk in Baltimore, calling it a straight ORANGE at this point and very likely to at least have a delayed start. A PPD is still not the most likely scenario, but it is a possibility that players will need to be aware of. For further updates, Kevin can be found in Premium Expert Chat right now.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Several spots at risk of delay or worse in Kevin's evening forecast.
The good news is that there’s no RED in Kevin’s evening update tonight. The bad news is that there’s some ORANGE and plenty of YELLOW. The worst of it seems to be in Atlanta (vs Texas), which gets the sole ORANGE grade tonight with enough risk of a PPD that it should be easy enough to omit that particular contest from the radar of DFS players, especially with a pitcher making his major league debut after a Teheran scratch tonight. New York (AL) Baltimore may be more difficult fade bats, but Kevin sees a late start more like than PPD. Jacob deGrom is the most significant pitcher at risk. The Phillies Mets is currently graded YELLOW with the belief that the bad stuff will miss, this is a spot players will want to be sure to get updates on and that can be done by finding Kevin in Premium Expert Chat from 6 to 7pm ET. Kansas City Detroit and Cleveland Chicago (AL) get the other YELLOW grades on the slate. The entire evening forecast, including some hitter friendly wind conditions, can be found on the Weather page.
Cheap Giants' bats projected to be popular on FanDuel, providing a path to high priced pitching
The San Francisco Giants have an 81 wRC+ on the road and 82 wRC+ vs RHP. Still, FanDuel may have under-priced them for Coors tonight. While no individual bats currently projected above 15% ownership on DraftKings, not a single confirmed Giants batters costs more than $3K on FanDuel with Buster Posey expected to be in potentially more than a quarter of lineups. While players should be cautioned by his .114 ISO vs RHP against a ground ball pitcher (57.6% against RHBs this year), Posey doesn’t have to do much to reach value and does have a 194 wRC+ with a 43.8 Hard% over the last seven days. Pitcher popularity may be split up between Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg factions tonight, while Michael Wacha could be the cheap secondary pitcher of choice on DraftKings. Wacha has struggled to miss bats recently (14.2 K%, 6.9 SwStr% last 30 days), but the Padres (25.1 K% vs RHP) can be a potent medicine for that type of condition. Considering the cost of the top pitching choices, it’s not surprising that players may be gravitating towards the cheaper team at Coors, even if they’re projected for more than a run and a half less.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Wacha Lively and Despaigne have sub-15% K rates, but lowest aEVs on the board
C.C. Sabathia has done a great job of managing contact this year. He may still have some issues facing a powerful, predominantly RH lineup in Baltimore, but it’s probably not a surprise at this point to find out that his 84.8 mph aEV is lowest on the slate. What might be a surprise is the two pitchers who are lower. Both have sample size issues and would probably increase over a full season, but the point stands that neither Ordrisamer Despaigne (81.6 mph aEV in 28 IP) nor Ben Lively (84.5 mph aEV in 59 IP) are allowing a lot of hard contact. Neither misses enough bats to be considered a useful daily fantasy pitcher with strikeout rates below 15%, but they may not necessarily be pitchers players should be lining up to attack either. Both have a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% as well. Jacob deGrom and Michael Wacha are the only other pitchers on the board who can boast that as well. Lively does have a 23.6 K% (10.5 SwStr%) over his last three starts, but in the outing with the most strikeouts (eight) and only above average SwStr%, he also allowed four HRs with a 50% hard hit rate. On the other end of the spectrum, Kendall Graveman has the worse aEV (89.5 mph) and 95+ mph EV (42%). No other pitcher is above 88.5 mph or 40%. Robert Stephenson (9.9%) and Ariel Miranda (9.7%) have the highest rate of Barrels on batted balls. Stephenson has a 15+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts with just one HR allowed over his last five though.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Odrisamer Despaigne, CC Sabathia, Kendall Graveman, Ariel Miranda, Robert Stephenson Several non-Coors teams (Astros, Indians, Orioles) have multiple top projected batters tonight
Nolan Arenado is the top overall projected batter on either site by the RotoGrinders Player Projections by a wide margin. His 212 wRC+ and .431 ISO vs LHP this year takes aim at Ty Blach’s 11.1 K%. RHBs have a .347 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against him. He done a good job managing contact this year (85.8 mph aEV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE), but less so lately (six HRs last four starts) and batted balls are significantly enhanced at Coors. The Houston Astros (George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa), Cleveland Indians (Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor) and Baltimore Orioles (Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop) all find themselves with multiple hitters near the top of the board. The Astros face the major league leader in HRs allowed in Ariel Miranda (35). RHBs have hit 30 of those with just a 28.6 GB%. His 9.7% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. Cleveland is facing David Holmberg. In his career, RHBs have hit 20 HRs in 373 PAs with a .380 wOBA and 22 Hard-Soft%. Players don’t have to scan the projections too much further to find Jose Ramirez either. The Orioles are facing C.C. Sabathia in Baltimore. He’s done a great job managing contact this season, but all 15 of his HRs have been surrendered to RHBs this year. The projections believe basically the entire San Francisco lineup is a value steal on FanDuel (nearly all 4+ Pt/$/K), mostly below $3K against Tyler Chatwood, who hasn’t made a start in over a month and has a high of 44 pitches over the last 30 days. Batters from either side exceed a .325 wOBA against him this year despite a ground ball rate above 55% and hard hit rate below 30%. He has a 12.9% walk rate. Among those projected for more than eight DraftKings points, Corey Dickerson (2.89 Pt/$/K) could be a top value for just $3.3K against Bartolo Colon (LHBs .387 wOBA, 42.2 Hard% this year).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Manny Machado, Corey Dickerson Logan Morrison scratched Tuesday, Lucas Duda to play 1B
No reason for the scratch has been given at this point, but Lucas Duda will now shift from DH to 1B. We’ll pass along a new confirmed lineup as soon as it becomes official.
As reported by: Marc Topkin Other tagged players: Lucas Duda
Robert Stephenson's 9.9% Barrels/BBE worst on slate, but he also has a 15+ SwStr% three of last four
Robert Stephenson had a 9.9% Barrels/BBE that’s highest on the board. His 88.3 mph aEV and 38.4% 95+ mph EV are both only behind Kendall Graveman tonight. LHBs have a .373 wOBA and 43.3 Hard% against him this year. RHBs have a .357 wOBA and 33.3 Hard%. He’s walked 14.4% of batters in 34 innings (six starts, one relief appearance) since the All-Star break. Cincinnati is a power haven. The Brewers have a 17.1 HR/FB on the road and 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Players should certainly consider having some exposure to Milwaukee bats tonight. Neil Walker (.207), Travis Shaw (.258), Stephen Vogt (.198), Domingo Santana (.211) and Ryan Braun (.224) have all shown significant power against RHP this year. Robert Stephenson has struck out 18 of his last 51 batters faced over his last two starts, exceeding 90 pitches in each. He’s had a SwStr rate above 15% in three of his last four starts. His hard hit rate has been below 28% in four of his last six starts with just one HR allowed over his last five. He costs less than $7K against an offense with a 25% strikeout rate on the road, vs RHP and over the last week. Robert Stephenson could help someone win a GPP tonight.
Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Travis Shaw, Stephen Vogt, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun Stephen Strasburgh has the top projection and second highest K rate (28.4%) on the board
There are five pitchers on tonight’s board who exceed a 25% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, the only one above a 30% strikeout rate (Danny Salazar 32.4%) returns from the DL with an elbow issue and has not thrown a professionally competitive pitch in two weeks, which makes him very likely to be facing some sort of pitch limitation that would make him unplayable tonight. Fortunately, the next two highest strikeout rates are in favorable spots. Stephen Strasburg has a 28.4 K% (second best on the slate) and is also third with a 30.3 K% over the last month. He’s the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on the board in Miami. The Marlins have a 23.9 K% and 3.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Jacob deGrom’s five Ks last time out was just his fourth time below eight in his last 12 starts. He’s pitched into seventh in 12 of his last 15 and though his 25 HRs are tied for 17th most, his 28.7% 95+ mph EV is third best on the board. His 13.5 SwStr% is second on the slate. His 28.3 K% is third. He may have the top matchup on the board, hosting the Phillies (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.9 HR/FB road, 25.1 Hard% and 3.1 HR/FB last week). Zack Greinke has the fourth highest K% on the board (27.5%). He’s catching the Dodgers at a great time (27.1 K% and 10.3 HR/FB over the last week). The one caveat is that they also have a 42% hard hit rate over the last week. Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed three to five ERs in seven of nine starts since returning from the DL after the break. His 15.3 K-BB% over that span is still above average and his 33.1 Hard% isn’t terrible. For the season, his 25.2 K% is fifth best on the board and he’s actually been better against RHBs. He has a 16.3 K-BB% against them since his return and 17.3% for the season. The Blue Jays have just a 28.3 Hard% against LHP this year. Other considerations might be Justin Verlander in his first start for the Astros in Seattle. He has eight or more Ks in seven of his last nine starts (25.1 K-BB%) with a 6.6 Hard-Soft% over that span. Kyle Hendricks has a 24.2 K% over the last month. His 12.6 SwStr% is fourth best on the board over that span. Robert Stephenson is the dark horse and deserves his own post, which begins with striking out 18 of his last 51 batters.
Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Eduardo Rodriguez, Danny Salazar, Justin Verlander, Kyle Hendricks, Robert Stephenson Adam Jones has five career HRs against C.C. Sabathia
With quite a few veteran pitchers on the mound tonight, there’s a lot of rich BvP and even Statcast data tonight in several matchups, including some of tonight’s top pitchers. Adam Jones has 10 extra-base hits with a slate leading five HRs against C.C. Sabathia. On 16 Statcast recorded BBEs, he has a 90.2 mph aEV and is not the only Oriole with some success against Sabathia. Manny Machado has two HRs and eight extra-base hits with an 87.7 mph aEV on 22 PAs. Among several batters who have homered three times against tonight’s opposing pitcher, we find George Springer (94.6 mph aEV on seven BBEs) against Ariel Miranda, Giancarlo Stanton (98.6 mph aEV on 14 BBEs), who has 11 extra-base hits against Stephen Strasburg, Nelson Cruz (97.6 mph aEV on eight BBEs) against Justin Verlander, Jose Abreu (91.6 mph aEV on 12 BBEs) against Danny Salazar, and Albert Pujols (95.3 mph aEV on 21 BBEs) against Kendall Graveman. Yadier Molina also has three HRs against Travis Wood, but with just an 82.6 mph aEV on six recorded BBEs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Manny Machado, CC Sabathia, George Springer, Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina