DFS Alerts
Dylan Bundy has eight or more strikeouts in four straight starts
Gary Sanchez will begin serving his suspension today and that makes things a bit easier for Dylan Bundy, who generated a 36.4 K% (17.8 SwStr%) over the last month. He’s struck out at least eight in four straight with 12 in a complete game one-hitter last time out. He’s ramped up his slider usage to 27.6% over these four starts (21.5% for the season). While the massive strikeout rate in conjunction with a with a 4.3 BB% over this span has kept his wOBA below .275 against batters from either side, when batters have made contact, they’re still hitting it hard (40.6%) in the air (38.1 GB%) without much of a split. Bundy costs a bit above $9K on either site in a dangerous park, but the tremendous upside can no longer be ignored. With Sanchez out, Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .310 ISO, 43.6 Hard% vs RHP) becomes the isolated power threat. Didi Gregorius (124 wRC+, .224 ISO, 26.1 Hard%, 42.1 FB% vs RHP) and Brett Gardner (122 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP) can both hit the ball out too. Chase Headley (117 wRC+, .138 ISO vs RHP) has not shown much power against RHP, but has a team leading 280 wRC+ (43.8 Hard%) over the last week. Considering the amount of hard contact Bundy is still allowing on batted balls along with his fly ball tendencies, calculated exposure to Yankee bats could pay dividends. Bundy has an 88.1 mph aEV on the season that’s fourth highest on the day slate.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius
Wind and rain expected for KC-DET and CLE-CHW matchups Monday afternoon, both games considered YELLOW
Both games are expected to start dry, but could experience some late-inning rain. Neither one appears to be a PPD risk, although an in-game delay is definitely possible. We’re expecting strong winds for both matchups. In Detroit, gusts will reach 35 mph, although they’ll mostly be across the field from right to left and a bit in from right. In Chicago, sustained winds of 15-20 mph blowing out to left will be a plus for hitters. Similarly, 15 mph winds out to left will help bats in the PHI-NYM tilt. The only other meeting today that could pose some risk is in Colorado, where the Rockies host the Giants; it’s currently considered GREEN/YELLOW due to a low chance of late pop-ups. It’ll be a warm day across the country, with several games anticipating temperatures in the 80s. Be sure to head into premium chat for Kevin’s updates prior to lock.
Javy Baez scratched on Monday
RHBs have just a .296 wOBA with four HRs (47.6 GB%, 30.4 Hard%) against Chad Kuhl in a difficult park for RH power in Pittsburgh. Replacing him with a below average LHB like Mike Freeman (-26 wRC+, .077 ISO vs RHP in 55 career PAs) is probably still a slight downgrade, considering LHBs .375 wOBA, 37.4 GB%, and 36.4 Hard% against Kuhl this season.
Other tagged players: Mike Freeman, Chad Kuhl
Rafael Montero has a 23.5 K% and 3.5 Hard-Soft% since his June recall
Rafael Montero had acquired a fairly well-deserved reputation as a failed prospect this season. Given chance after chance, he never did anything to show that he deserved to remain in the major leagues, let alone the starting rotation. Something seems to have changed after his most recent recall to the majors in June. While he’s still had periods of struggles, the overall package has looked at least competent with the increased use of an improved changeup (21%) that he’s ridden to the lowest aEV (83.8 mph) on the afternoon slate among those with at least five starts. His 4.4% Barrels/BBE is lowest without any cutoff. His 26.5% 95+ mph EV is second. He still has a 9.8 BB% in 11 starts (four relief appearances) since mid-June, but now with a 23.5 K% to go along with the weak contact (3.5 Hard-Soft%). Montero is coming off the best start of his career in Cincinnati, where he walked four, but one of those was Votto…intentionally…in the ninth inning. He struck out a career high eight through 8.1 shutout innings on three hits. He costs $7.5K or less this afternoon and might have the best matchup on the board. The Phillies have a 78 wRC+ and 10.0 HR/FB on the road with an 87 wRC+ and 16.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Over the last week, they have 76 wRC+, 24.4 K% and 4.7 HR/FB. Rhys Hoskins (190 wRC+, .381 ISO, 45.1 Hard% vs RHP) returns to the Philadelphia lineup from a few days off with a hand issue and that will help the cause of the offense here, though he does cost $4.6K on FanDuel. Nick Williams (109 wRC+, .208 ISO, 38.7 Hard vs RHP) has been the only other above average hitter with any power against RHP in today’s lineup and he has just a 35 wRC+ with a 15.8 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams Milwaukee's projected run total (5.26) has jumped 0.37 runs Monday morning
It places them third on the afternoon slate today while the two squads above them (Colorado and Cleveland) top six runs. In a favorable matchup with Homer Bailey, Milwaukee’s bats are expected to carry high ownership levels. Thames is expected to be the highest-owned player on the entire slate (20.0%), while Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw, and Manny Pina are all projected in the double-digits. Braun also makes an appearance in the top ten points-per-dollar projections on DraftKings, which makes a lot of sense considering his $3.7k price tag and Bailey’s splits against RHB. Through 152 TBF, Bailey has allowed opponents to reach an extremely high .434 wOBA this season along with a .219 ISO. However, it’s worth noting he’s also posted an oddly high .410 BABIP for his 29.1% Hard% and 25.7% FB% rates. He isn’t exactly limiting RHB to soft contact though (15.5%) and his ground ball rate hasn’t been exceptionally high (45.7%). With a similar batted ball profile across 64 right-handers last season – with the main exception being a very low 14.3% Hard% – Bailey still posted a .390 BABIP. Although Braun isn’t a big fly ball hitter (31.6%), his solid 38.5% Hard% has helped him to a .225 ISO against RHP. He also boasts one of the lower k-rates on the team (20.8%) and Bailey has a low 15.1% K% against RHB on the season. Milwaukee’s strikeout struggles have been well documented this season, but fortunately lefties like Santana (29.9% K% vs. RHP) and Thames (27.9% vs. RHP) should find some reprieve against the Reds’ hurler, who’s struck out just 13.7% of the left-handers he’s faced this year. Santana, like Braun carries a nice ISO (.215) with a low FB% (29.5%) and solid Hard% (37.5%). Of course, Thames (.285 ISO) excels in both areas (43.3% FB%, 40.7% Hard%). Although Bailey has a lower wOBA against lefties (.366) it’s a hitter-friendly rate. His Hard% rises slightly to 30.8% while his GB% falls a bit to 42.5%. This also bodes well for Travis Shaw, who finds himself in the top five points-per-dollar projections today. He’s taken advantage of right-handed pitching for a .263 ISO with a 38.8% FB% and 39.9% Hard%. Back on the right side of the plate, Manny Pina (.177 ISO) has an excellent fly ball rate (44.7%) and although he has a low 29.2% Hard%, he rarely hits for soft contact (15.2%). All told, the Brewers lineup has a combined ISO of .208 – all of their batters top .138 while their two through six bats exceed .205 – and .347 wOBA against RHP this year. With Bailey struggling to strike guys out, he could have a really tough time working through the meat of this order, which makes the Brewers an appealing stack, although they will likely come with relatively high ownership.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Manny Pina, Domingo Santana Confirmed Mets lineup has just a .280 wOBA, .120 ISO vs RHP
Dominic Smith (71 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) is probably not the ideal choice of a cleanup batter for the Mets at this point in his career, but the real goal for this team may be survival at this point with Wilmer Flores and Amed Rosario joining the wounded over the weekend in Houston. Smith is actually the only batter in the lineup with an ISO above .160 against RHP this year. Brandon Nimmo (124 wRC+, .099 ISO vs RHP) is one of just two batters with a wRC+ exceeding 90 against RHP (Nori Aoki is the other – 101). Nimmo has been an on-base machine without much power, which is obviously why Terry Collins has Jose Reyes (74 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP) leading off with him batting sixth. Mark Leiter has started six games for the Phillies this year, in two batches of three each. He’s been serviceable with at least five strikeouts in five of them, but no more than six in any. For the season, he has a perfectly average 20.7 K%, but 25% in August. The Mets are implied for 4.45 runs, but Leiter is facing a confirmed lineup with a .280 wOBA and .120 ISO vs RHP this year (PlateIQ). He’s pitched at least 6.2 innings in each of his last two starts and is certainly a pitcher players might want to consider on a weak slate at a reasonable price. The other factor in his favor is the recent schedule for the Mets, who traveled home from Houston after playing a double-header Saturday and a day game Sunday, while also assisting in hurricane relief efforts. While an extremely noble cause, all of this activity and travel could come back to hurt them on the field for an early afternoon Monday start.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes 2014 eighth round draft pick, 25 year-old Artie Lewicki replaces Verlander in Detroit rotation
Artie Lewicki is a 25 year-old former eighth round draft pick in 2014 for the Tigers. He was names as an honorable mention (Future Value below 40) by Fangraphs in their pre-season organizational ranking in December without any standout tools. There’s no pressure on him today, as the guy he’s replacing in the rotation is just some marginal arm the Tigers traded away named Verlander. Lewicki has thrown just 31 innings above AA, striking out 27.1% of batters he’s faced at AAA in that small sample. That’s well above a league average strikeout rate he ran at AA for 177.1 innings over the last two seasons and a point or two higher below that. He has, however, exhibited solid control with a walk rate of 6.5% or below at every stop since high A ball. The Royals, who he’ll host in his debut, are projected by Vegas for 4.87 runs, nearing the middle of the board, but still on the top half for the day slate. Kevin has not yet weighed in with the day’s forecast, but the Weather page shows a strong wind (18 mph) potentially blowing in from right in this game. There is that element of the unknown in a pitcher making his major league debut, so the Royals may not necessarily be the offense to target for players here. Not a single bat in today’s lineup has a wRC above 100 with a hard hit rate above 30% over the last week. Lorenzo Cain has a 181 wRC+ over the last week, but with a 10.5 Hard%. He has just a .130 ISO vs RHP this year. Eric Hosmer (143 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP) and Mike Moustakas (130 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP) are the top choices. Salvador Perez (104 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Brandon Moss (73 wRC+, .225 ISO) have shown power vs RHP as well. Melky Cabrera (107 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP) has improved on his season numbers since being returning to the Royals.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Melky Cabrera, Artie Lewicki, Salvador Perez, Brandon Moss Outside of Coors, the Angels are tied for the second-highest implied team total (5.9) on Sunday's slates
Outside of his recent August stretch of allowing two earned runs or less in four of his previous five starts, including a seven-inning shutout against the “same” Los Angeles team he faces this afternoon, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up his magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in most of his outings. So much of what makes Perez “successful” is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 21.9% strikeout rate, 55.1% groundball rate, and just 24.4% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something he should have a nearly impossible time relying on today as the Los Angeles Angels will likely have just one lefty in their lineup for this matinee. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters as well, posting just a 12.4% strikeout rate in 121.1 innings pitched this season while surrendering hard contact 36.0% of the time, leading to a lofty .361 wOBA allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this Angels lineup, as several of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with Mike Trout (162 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .185 ISO) and Justin Upton (203 wRC+, .476 wOBA, .387 ISO vs LHP) decisively leading the way. On top of the aforementioned duo, virtually any righty cracking the Los Angeles lineup is more than playable on this slate with C.J. Cron (113 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .292 ISO vs LHP), Andrelton Simmons, and newly-acquired Brandon Phillips being the other definitive players to target, while Albert Pujols is probably best avoided outside of large-field tournaments given his overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Upton, C.J. Cron, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Phillips, Albert Pujols, Martin Perez
Tyler Saladino scratched Sunday; Jose Abreu replaces and will bat third
Saladino has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for today’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a presumed hand or wrist injury. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Jose Abreu, who will take over the designated hitter duties and bat third. This lineup change will bump Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, and Kevan Smith each down one spot in the order to fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively. However, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Chris Kuc via Twitter Other tagged players: Jose Abreu Relatively quiet MLB weather forecast for Sunday's main slate of games but potential trouble spots in late slate
It’s a pretty strange day on the weather front across Major League Baseball for Sunday’s full slate of games, as the game with the worst rain delay potential comes to us in San Diego of all places for the matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres with a grade of YELLOW/ORANGE due to the possibility of a late start or in-game delay. As for the main slate, however, the only game with even a chance of rain is in Texas for the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers with a risk classification of just YELLOW/GREEN due to some low-coverage pop-up storms in the area. Be sure read Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below and check out the new RotoGrinders Premium Chat where Kevin will be providing key weather updates on a nightly basis during the week. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long as well, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Five Blue Jays righties have an ISO of .215 or higher versus LHP this season
On the surface, Wade Miley seems to have righted the ship a bit recently, allowing no more than three earned runs in any of his six previous starts while eclipsing five or more strikeouts in all but two of those aforementioned outings. Although Miley has seen some good results lately, his peripheral stats certainly fail to follow suit. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Toronto Blue Jays squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Ryan Goins being the only left-handed batters to crack the Boston lineup this evening. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 19.0%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.2% over that same time period. Miley’s 49.2% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us utilizing Blue Jays hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.2% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.6% of the time. With that said, this Blue Jays offense has the chance to become one of the more overlooked stacks on Saturday’s main slate since they don’t really provide many usable one-off power options throughout their order. Considering the reduced ownership Toronto bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn’t be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Blue Jays stacks to better differentiate from the masses in tournaments. Based solely on statistics, Justin Smoak (193 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .273 ISO vs LHP), Kendrys Morales (159 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .229 ISO vs LHP), and Josh Donaldson (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .290 ISO vs LHP) stand out as the primary plays from this Blue Jays order, while Kevin Pillar (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .215 ISO vs LHP) and Steve Pearce (.247 ISO vs LHP) should be considered more as secondary options and a clear tier below the previously mentioned sluggers and are better utilized as part of a Toronto stack in tournaments or as contrarian one-offs given their decent individual upside at the plate against southpaws.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson, Kevin Pillar, Steve Pearce, Wade Miley Several games with grades of YELLOW or worse in Saturday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively busy Saturday night on the weather front for an 11-game slate, as a total of three games check-in with risk classifications of YELLOW/ORANGE, meaning that a postponement cannot be fully ruled out in any of them, albeit the less likely outcome. These games come to us in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Chicago, so be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The White Sox are tied for the second-lowest implied team total (3.5) on Saturday night's main slate
Chris Archer is set to take the mound on the road tonight against the Chicago White Sox coming off of two-straight fantastic performances against the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays his last couple times out, allowing just two earned runs in 13 innings pitched while striking out 18 batters in the process. Archer continues to stay on the straight and narrow after a shaky start to the year, especially in the strikeout department, notching eight or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts, flashing that elite upside that we have all come to know and love from the Rays ace. Effectively, the current season advanced statistics for Archer look fantastic, evidenced by a 3.33 SIERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, and a 7.0% walk rate, that are essentially in line or better than his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (40.4% GB%) from a career 45.6% rate that is correlated with a career-high 39.4% hard hit rate, though a 28-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain worrisome nonetheless. In a matchup with a White Sox squad that ranks 24th in wRC+ (89), 28th in wOBA (.305), and 25th in ISO (.157) against right-handed pitching, it’s easy to see why Archer possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Saturday’s main slate, especially when factoring in Chicago’s exploitable 23.1% strikeout rate to righties. If weighting splits, another small “drawback” with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.7% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a still usable 26.7% strikeout rate on the road. This does make Archer a more than viable fade candidate if he projects to be one of the higher owned starting pitchers on the slate. However, it’s important to keep in mind that Archer still has the ability to finish the night as the highest scoring pitcher and would be needed in to do well in tournaments more often than not.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Corey Kluber owns a stellar 2.66 SIERA and 29.5% K-BB% on the year
To say that Corey Kluber has been pitching well this season would be a massive understatement, as the Cleveland Indians’ ace has recorded double-digit strikeouts in all but FIVE of his starts dating back to the beginning of June while allowing three earned runs or more on just four occasions in that time span. That is just an incredible stretch of outings for any starting pitcher but even more impressive considering Kluber was activated off of the disabled list right before the start of the aforementioned time period. Across those 17 starts, Kluber has struck out 38.0% of the batters he has faced while issuing free passes at just a 4.4% clip and surrendering hard contact only 25.8% of the time. With those type of numbers, it wouldn’t really matter who Kluber was facing tonight and would still be in play for any format, but amazingly, he receives the privilege of taking on a Detroit Tigers squad that strikes out at a 22.3% clip versus right-handed pitching, bad enough for tenth-highest in the big leagues. This Tigers offense is also extremely unlikely to take Kluber deep considering they rank 27th in ISO (.153) while also residing in the bottom-third of the league in wRC+ (93) and wOBA (.314). So, clearly, Kluber still remains a virtual must play in every format given his upside in this particular matchup and remarkable consistency over the last three-plus months. Meaning, without a doubt, if playing one of Saturday night’s slates, Kluber should be the anchor in your starting pitcher slot in nearly every lineup across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Chris Stratton scratched Saturday; Jeff Samardzija will now start in his place
Stratton has officially been scratched from his start in today’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals due to an unspecified reason. In his place, Jeff Samardzija will receive the starting nod and bat ninth in the order. This does mean that Cardinals hitters projected value could take a slight hit on Saturday’s early slate, while Samardzija becomes an interesting late swap candidate if able to reconfigure your rosters following the lone early contest.
As reported by: Amy Gutierrez via Twitter Other tagged players: Jeff Samardzija