DFS Alerts
Lack of premium pitching may make Coors stacks more popular tonight
Coors bats are expected to be most popular on tonight’s slate and while there’s often some conflict between bats in Colorado and high priced pitching, players generally don’t have such a decision to make tonight. It’s impossible to fit all of the top bats in any lineup, but there seems to be a bit of extra leeway tonight without much in the way of high priced pitching. In fact, not a single pitcher currently projects above 20% ownership on FanDuel with Luis Castillo and Jimmy Nelson perhaps being tonight’s most popular arms. Those looking to jam their lineups full of premium bats may consider looking into Jack Flaherty, making his debut in San Francisco. He is a prospect of some note in a deep system, barely missing the Fangraphs Top 100 this year and is not likely to be highly owned. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Castillo, Jimmy Nelson, Jack Flaherty
No areas of major concern in Kevin's evening forecast
In his late forecast, Kevin touches on a few spots that could see some sprinkles, but nothing that players should be overly concerned about. He also notes a few spots where it’s a bit cooler than usual and some parks with gusting winds tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and find further updates in Premium Chat tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout find themselves among Coors bats atop RotoGrinders Player Projections
The RotoGrinders Player Projections have five of the top seven bats residing in Coors tonight. Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez are projected very closely at the top, followed by Giancarlo Stanton, who may treat Miami like Coors tonight, facing a pitcher who has allowed RHBs a .423 wOBA, 44.9 Hard% and 40.5 GB%. Mike Trout in Texas (Cole Hamels) then shows up among Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Nolan Arenado. Rounding out the top 10 requires a return trip to Miami, where Rhys Hoskins faces the debuting Dillon Peters. There’s a lot of small sample sizes and unknown in that matchup. He’s followed by Nelson Cruz against Sean Manaea (RHBs .342 wOBA, 38.3 Hard% this year) and Jonathan Schoop (203 wRC+, 40.9 Hard% last seven days) at home against Joe Biagini. Despite the lack of high priced pitching on the board, it’s never a bad idea to hunt for value. The projections believe it’s best found with Matt Davidson (3.94 Pt/$/K), Danny Valencia (3.85 Pt/$/K) and Jean Segura (3.82 Pt/$/K) among those projected for at least nine FanDuel points. Each are around the $2.5K mark with the platoon advantage. On DraftKings, the projections see Chris Iannetta (2.44 Pt/$/K) as a top value, along with teammate J.D. Martinez (2.35 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Iannetta, Matt Davidson, Danny Valencia, Jean Segura, Charlie Blackmon, Nelson Cruz Jimmy Nelson has a stellar -2.0% Hard-Soft% versus RHB this season
Jimmy Nelson has been a model of consistency this season, something the right-hander couldn’t have been further from claiming in years past and is currently in the midst of a stretch allowing three earned runs or less while recording at least six strikeouts in all but one of his previous seven outings. That kind of consistency has forced his price tag to remain relatively flat across the industry, $8.4K on DraftKings and $8.5K on FanDuel, despite a recent blow-up start against the Cincinnati Reds, could be enough to make some daily fantasy players weary of deploying Nelson in their lineups with a plethora of other viable starting pitchings residing in his pricing tier. This notion couldn’t be any more off base, however, as Nelson has exhibited some elite all-around skills this season, evidenced by a 26.6% strikeout rate, 50.1% groundball rate, and 3.45 SIERA to hitters from both sides of the plate. Further adding to his upside appeal, Nelson will receive the benefit of facing off with a Washington Nationals lineups that will likely roll out three left-handed batters sans Bryce Harper, and while this may not normally be plus for a right-handed pitcher, it is for Nelson and his elite 29.6% strikeout rate to lefties on the year. With that said, the strikeout prowess against lefties doesn’t come without some added risk, as Nelson sacrifices a lot of his control and contact management skills to left-handed batters while seeing a decrease in ground balls (45.3% GB%), an increase in hard contact (37.1% HH%), and an increase in free passes issued (8.5% BB%). The matchup with a Washington squad that ranks 8th or better in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO against right-handed pitching does very little to alleviate those aforementioned concerns about Nelson’s skills against lefties. However, without Harper, there is very little to be worried about in terms of lefty-power in this lineup, and Nelson possesses a great skill set to shut down the remaining Nationals righties with a respectable 23.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% BB%, and 54.1% groundball rate to along with a 26.3% hard hit rate. Although, making the upside aspect of this matchup less than ideal is the fact that the Nationals are a relatively difficult team to strike out, ranking in the top-third of the league in strikeout rate against righties (20.4% K%). This and the previously noted contact and control issues do firmly demote Nelson to a tournament option only on Friday’s slate given some safer options on the board, but he has shown consistently that he can overcome any matchup and pitch his way to a solid performance in any given start.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Dillon Peters, Jack Flaherty make their major league debuts in great spots tonight
September first means roster expansion and while players should expect a lot of new faces, two pitchers making their major league debuts right off the bat is a bit unexpected. For the Marlins, Dillon Peters is a 25 year-old lefty, who was graded as the sixth best prospect in a weak Miami system by Fangraphs before the season, but only given a 40 Future Value grade. He’s a former Tommy John patient, who has never seen AAA, but had a 16.2 K-BB% in 45.2 AA innings this season. He allowed just one HR with a 46 GB%. His ground ball rate had previously been above 50% at every other level above rookie ball. The stuff is considered fringey and he could be over-matched in the majors right now, but it may not take much to keep the Phillies off balance (77 wRC+ on the road, 84 wRC+ vs LHP, 22.2 K-BB% last seven days. He did strike out 12 of his last 47 batters over his last two starts (12.2 IP – 0 ER) before leaving AA. Jack Flaherty is also the sixth ranked prospect (Fangraphs) in the St Louis system. However, this near 22 year-old was given a 50 Future Value grade and also received some consideration, but just missed their Top 100 list. He’s done absolutely nothing to hurt that ranking at AAA this season with an 18.0 K-BB% in 15 starts with 10 HRs and a 41 GB%. He may not be in line for a lot of strikeouts against the Giants (19% at home, vs RHP, last seven days), but he may generate a rate around league average and has little to worry about from a contact perspective (6.0 HR/FB at home, 8.8 HR/FB vs RHP, 7.1 HR/FB last seven day).
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Dillon Peters Three pitchers (Kershaw, Cueto, Lopez) make their returns from the DL tonight
There are a lot of unknowns on the mound tonight. Players would be justified by starting and ending their daily fantasy research with Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the Padres most times (24 K% at home and vs LHP). Even though he struck out eight through five innings in a rehab start, he faced just 16 batters and a Twitter search reveals he’s likely to be limited to 75 pitches tonight. That’s too small a workload for the cost against any team, even in the best spot imaginable. The Dodgers have absolutely no reason in the world to push him. Johnny Cueto hasn’t started a major league game in a month and a half. Over his last four starts, he totaled 13 strikeouts with 16 walks. In three rehab starts, he didn’t finish the fourth inning once. His last one was in High A ball. He allowed eight runs (five earned). Reynaldo Lopez is a prospect of some note, who has even had some major league success so far (21.9 K% in 54.1 IP). However, he returns after a two week DL stint with a back issue and without a rehab start.
Other tagged players: Johnny Cueto, Reynaldo Lopez Luis Castillo has struck out 21 of last 65 batters, 57 GB% & 85 mph aEV on the season
Luis Castillo’s 26.4 K% is just the fifth highest on the board tonight. After a strong start to his career, he suffered through somewhat of a rough patch following the All-Star break. However, he’s now struck out 21 of his last 65 batters (three runs in 17 innings). For the season, he has a 57 GB% with a 6.3 Hard-Soft%. His Statcast numbers are some of the best on the board: 85 mph aEV (fourth), 3% Barrels/BBE (first), 28.9% 95+ mph EV (second). The combination of strikeouts and weak ground balls in Pittsburgh might make him the top pitcher on the board tonight (for just $8.1K on FanDuel). While the Pirates strike out just 18.8% against RHP, they’re up to 26.2% over the last seven days overall. They have just a 10.4 HR/FB at home and vs RHP this year. This is a great spot for Castillo to continue his recent dominance.
Blake Snell has struck out 15 of last 52 batters, 84.9 mph aEV is third lowest on the board
Blake Snell has the talent to miss bats, but a high walk rate has kept him from reaching his potential early on. From the end of July through the middle of August, he had five straight starts with two or fewer walks, but failed to strike out more than five in any of them. Last two times out, it seems like he may be finding his way. He’s gone seven innings in each start with 15 strikeouts and five walks (52 batters). Over these last seven starts combined, he has a 48 GB% and 6.4 Hard-Soft%. For the season, his 84.9 mph aEV and 29.4% 95+ mph EV are both third best on the board. The White Sox have a 29.5 K% over the last seven days and now with Jose Abreu out tonight, the confirmed lineup has a .313 wOBA and .133 ISO with a 22 K% vs LHP according to PlateIQ. For the season, RHBs have a .334 wOBA (32 Hard%) against Snell with all 12 of his HRs allowed. Over these last seven starts, that’s turned into a .305 wOBA with four HRs, a 14.0 K-BB%, 52.8 GB% and 3.7 Hard-Soft%. A third straight strong start may not yet be considered a breakout, but whatever it should be called, it might be expected to continue tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Both teams at Coors projected for six runs tonight, more than half a run above all other teams
The Friday slate is two games short of being full with a Wrigley day game and a Houston PPD. The game at Coors has both teams projected for about six runs. Ten of 24 remaining teams have an implied run line between 4.9 and 5.4 runs. The Coors matchup, Taijuan Walker vs Kyle Freeland, features two competent pitchers, but also two that have not been at their peak recently. Freeland has a ground ball rate below 40% with a hard hit rate above 35% in three of his last four starts (discounting his 0.1 inning outing). Walker has just 12 Ks over his last four, but a 55.9 GB% and 23.7 Hard% over his last three starts. While RHBs have a 59.1 GB% and 29.6 K% against Freeland for the season, they also carry a .336 wOBA. Over these last four starts, it’s a .399 wOBA, 46.3 GB% and 36.4 Hard%. Your lefty mashing D’Backs: J.D. Martinez (259 wRC+, .537 ISO), Paul Goldschmidt (155 wRC, .270 ISO) and even Chris Iannetta (155 wRC+, .237 ISO) are all in play. Though very expensive, Martinez and Goldschmidt each have a 58% hard hit rate over the last week. Taijuan Walker has very little platoon split, keeping most of the Colorado lineup in play in this environment, with Charlie Blackmon (152 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP) the obvious standout. Mark Reynolds and Nolan Arenado have a wRC+ around average, but ISOs above .230 vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Charlie Blackmon, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Freeland, Chris Iannetta Brandon Phillips scratched Thursday; Jace Peterson replaces and will bat seventh
Phillips has officially been scratched from the Atlanta Braves lineup for tonight’s game against the Chicago Cubs due to an unspecified reason, though Atlanta beat writers believe Phillips may have been traded. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Jace Peterson, who will take over the third base duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will bump Ozzie Albies all the way up to the two-hole from his original position of seventh and also slide him over to second base defensively. However, the remainder of the Braves previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: David O'Brien Madison Bumgarner scratched, Matt Cain will start
Madison Bumgarner scratched, Matt Cain will start
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner The Giants are tied for the second-lowest implied team total (3.8) on Thursday's slate
Michael Wacha has been extremely consistent from a run prevention standpoint this season but seems to have a bit of a rough patch lately, allowing four or more earned runs in each of his last three starts while recording just nine punch outs in the process. However, if we dig a little deeper, we’ll see that Wacha certainly hasn’t been pitching as poorly as the results would indicate and he has just fallen victim to an insanely high .426 BABIP that should be expected to normalize quickly. If we throw out his last three disastrous outings, the recent improvement in his skill set over his previous five starts (24.2% K% and 5.8% BB%) provides optimism for a bounce back and Wacha’s performance going forward in the final stretch of the season. Wacha has also shown the ability to control batted ball events relatively well all year, quietly limiting hard contact to just 28.3% of the time to hitters from both sides of the plate. Tonight, Wacha will also receive the added benefit of facing a San Francisco Giants lineup that is downright abysmal against right-handed pitching, ranking 30th in wRC+ (82), 30th in wOBA (.297), and 30th in ISO (.133). They do, however, only strike out at only a 19.4% clip, good for a tie for third-best in the Majors, which does possibly cap Wacha’s ceiling just a bit this evening. Considering how weak Thursday’s main slate is for starting pitching options, it’s unlikely that Wacha flys under the radar but some gamers still may feel the need to pay up for high priced options like Madison Bumgarner and Gio Gonzalez on a slate that clearly does not dictate it across the industry. Wacha certainly makes sense as a starting pitcher target on either site in order to pay up for higher quality upside bats to anchor our lineups. With his ability to limit hard contact and walks, a six-inning performance with roughly a strikeout or so an inning could be more than enough to compete in large-field tournaments with the right combination of hitters on Thursday night.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Only one game with rain delay potential in Thursday night's MLB weather forecast
There is not much to monitor on the weather front for Thursday’s abbreviated six-game slate as just one game has any sort of rain delay potential. This game comes to us in Baltimore for the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles with a risk classification of YELLOW/GREEN due to a few spotty showers that could move their way over the stadium. With the aforementioned scattered showers, Kevin Roth cannot fully rule out the possibility of a delay but the game looks to be safe overall, which will certainly keep hitters from both teams firmly in play this evening. Be sure read Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below and check out the new RotoGrinders Premium Chat between 6-7pm where Kevin will be providing key weather updates on a nightly basis during the week. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long as well, @KevinRothWx
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Madison Bumgarner has a 20.1 K-BB% over his last six starts.
While still not up to normal standards and expectations, Madison Bumgarner has struck out exactly seven in five of his last six starts, going exactly seven innings in four of those starts. He has a 20.1 K-BB% over that span. While his 23.4 K% is his lowest since 2012, it’s still good enough for second best on the slate. His 87.4 mph aEV and 34.5% 95+ mph EV are both second highest on the slate, but they’d likely be somewhere closer to the middle on a full slate and that’s less of a concern in San Francisco. The negative run environment makes a somewhat neutral matchup against the Cardinals (96 wRC+ on the road, 102 wRC+ vs LHP) a decent one. He’s the top projected pitcher on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections). While RHBs have just a .278 wOBA against Bumgarner this season, they also have a 38.9 Hard%, but with a 20.8 K-BB%. This makes Tommy Pham (148 wRC+, .268 ISO vs LHP), Paul DeJong (142 wRC+, .323 ISO vs LHP), Yadier Molina (143 wRC+, .315 ISO vs LHP) and Jedd Gyorko (132 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP) all slightly interesting, but more so on DraftKings with similar price tags. Players also need to consider the power muting effects of the park. Even on a small slate, this is probably a spot to attack offensively without a discount. The Cardinals have a 3.7 projected run line, second lowest on the board.
Other tagged players: Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Jedd Gyorko RHBs have a -3.2 Hard-Soft% against Zach Davies in his last eight starts
The Nationals have two of their right-handed starters back in the lineup (Jayson Werth and Trea Turner) this week, but this may not be the ideal spot to utilize them. RHBs have a .314 wOBA against Zach Davies this year, but a 54.5 GB% and 26 Hard%. Turner’s game is more speed than power predicated, so he can still be useful here, but at a high cost, players are going to need him to steal a couple of bases tonight. Davies has just a 4.3% Barrels/BBE, which has helped him keep his HR rate down in a tough park in Milwaukee. Over his last eight starts, batters have just a 22.8 Hard% against him, including -3.2% for RHBs. A 15.1 K% on the season makes it hard to even consider using him. LHBs have it a bit easier (.329 wOBA, 31.1 Hard%, 41.3 GB% this season). They have just a .247 wOBA, 21.7 K% and one HR over this eight start stretch, but with a 33.8 GB% and 29.7 Hard%. On a small slate, both Daniel Murphy (134 wRC+, .234 ISO, 35.1 Hard%, 40.8 FB% vs RHP) and Adam Lind (127 wRC+, .222 ISO, 40.8 Hard%, 37.3 FB% vs RHP) may still have some value. The latter has a 250 wRC+ and 53.9 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Adam Lind, Trea Turner, Zach Davies, Jayson Werth