DFS Alerts
All three Miami outfielders have multiple career HRs against Max Scherzer
The Marlins at Nationals presents some interesting scenarios tonight. In a vacuum, Max Scherzer is tonight’s top pitcher, especially considering the unfavorable schedule for the Nationals recently, which had them playing a Thursday night road game in Houston into extra-innings before a four game weekend series at home that concluded in a day-night double-header on Sunday. This is where you’d expect Scherzer to put the load on his shoulders and carry his team through eight innings and 110+ pitches. Knowing Dusty and Max, that may still happen if the latter wants it to. However, he’s also throwing his first competitive pitchers in two weeks, returning from a DL stint due to a neck issue and the Nationals really aren’t playing for anything tonight. He could very well stroll off the mound in the first inning again, have some sort of pitch limitation, or be completely healthy and pitch his standard game. Players might want to consider that Scherzer has allowed 19 HRs this season and is an extreme fly ball pitcher. These Marlins have given him some trouble in the power department too. Seven of tonight’s eight confirmed lineup participants have homered off of Scherzer with the exception being J.T. Realmuto, according to Daily Baseball Data. With more than 10 BBEs, Statcast (Baseball Savant) has Marcell Ozuna (91.4 mph aEV) and Christian Yelich (98.5 mph aEV) making consistently hard contact against him. All three outfielders have multiple HRs against Scherzer. Stanton, of course, has hit his 50th HR before any other major leaguer has hit their 40th. Unfortunately, none are priced down for tonight’s matchup, but that could also serve to make ownership rates virtually non-existent. While a full out assault on Max Scherzer is never recommended, multiple lineup players might one to consider some one off exposure to Marlins outfielders in GPPs tonight. The one additional variable worth considering is that Kevin’s forecast calls for wind gusts up to 20 mph blowing in from right field tonight, which makes Yelich, especially, a higher risk and obviously impedes the opposite field power of the two RHBs.
As reported by: Daily Baseball Data Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Max Scherzer
Only one game with rain concerns in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a fairly quiet MLB weather forecast for Sunday’s full slate of games, as just one contest has any threat of rain in the forecast. That game comes to us in Chicago for the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox with a grade of YELLOW/ORANGE due to the probability of a delay before or during the game. Starting pitchers from this contest shouldn’t really be on daily fantasy players’ radar this afternoon, but if they are, a pregame delay would obviously be a huge boost to their fantasy outlook. On the other hand, hitters remain firmly in play considering postponement chances remain very low. There are some prime hitting conditions in other cities across the big leagues, so be sure to check out Kevin Roth’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Chris Archer ranks first among Sunday's starters in SIERA (3.34) and K% (30.1%)
Chris Archer is set to take the mound today against the St. Louis Cardinals on the road tonight coming off of a great performance against the Toronto Blue Jays his last time out, allowing just one earned run in six innings pitched while striking out 10 batters. Archer continues to stay on the straight and narrow after a shaky start to the year, especially in the strikeout department, notching eight or more strikeouts in eight of his last ten starts, flashing that elite upside that we have all come to know and love from the Rays ace. Effectively, the current season advanced statistics for Archer look fantastic, evidenced by a 3.34 SIERA, 30.1% strikeout rate, and a 7.1% walk rate, that are essentially in line or better than his career numbers. One potential trouble spot is the small dip in his groundball rate (41.2% GB%) from a career 45.7% rate that is correlated with a career-high 39.4% hard hit rate, though a 27-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain extremely concerning nonetheless. Even in a less than ideal matchup with a Cardinals squad that ranks 10th in wRC+ (101), 8th in wOBA (.329), but only 19th in ISO (.165) against right-handed pitching, it’s still easy to see why Archer possesses one of, if not, the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Sunday’s slate, especially when factoring in St. Louis’s exploitable 21.7% strikeout rate to righties. If weighting splits, another small “drawback” with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 33.7% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a still usable 26.5% strikeout rate on the road. This does make Archer a more than viable fade candidate if he projects to be one of the higher owned starting pitchers on the slate. However, it’s important to keep in mind that Archer still has the ability to overcome a below-average matchup and is still probably the favorite to finish the day as the highest scoring pitcher and would be needed in tournaments more often than not.
As reported by: FanGraphs Wade Miley has just a .260 BABIP in his last five starts, leading to some slightly deceiving results
On the surface, Wade Miley seems to have righted the ship a bit recently, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his five previous starts while eclipsing five or more strikeouts in all but one of those aforementioned outings. Although Miley has seen some good results lately, his peripheral stats certainly fail to follow suit. Today, Miley is set to face off with a Boston Red Sox squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers being the only left-handed batters to crack the Boston lineup this afternoon. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 19.1%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.4% over that same time period. Miley’s 49.7% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Red Sox hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.0% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.5% of the time. With that said, the Red Sox offense has the chance to become one of the more over owned stacks on Sunday’s main slate and don’t really provide many significant one off power options throughout their order, making them a worthy fade candidate in large field tournaments if able to find other spots with as much or more upside potential . Considering the elevated ownership the Boston bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn’t be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Red Sox stacks to better differentiate from the masses. especially in given their overall strong numbers against left-handed pitching. Based solely on statistics, Mookie Betts (114 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP), Hanley Ramirez (.231 ISO vs LHP), and Chris Young (113 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .172 ISO vs LHP since 2016) stand out as the primary plays from this Red Sox lineup, while Eduardo Nunez and Xander Bogaerts are a clear tier below the previously mentioned players and are better utilized as part of a Boston stack in tournaments than individual one-offs given their lack of individual upside at the plate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, Eduardo Nunez, Xander Bogaerts, Wade Miley Righties in Cardinals lineup Saturday have a combined .234 ISO against LHP this season
That could cause some trouble for opposing pitcher Blake Snell, who enters the game with a .186 ISO against righties this season. Especially considering that .234 ISO figure is weighed down by Stephen Piscotty’s .075. The remaining five guys have ISOs of at least .194 and four of them sit between .250-326 paired with wOBAs between .357-.410. Those four – Thomas Pham (.265 ISO, .399 wOBA), Paul DeJong (.326 ISO, .410 wOBA), Jedd Gyroko (.250 ISO, .376 wOBA), and Yadier Molina (.293 ISO, .357 wOBA) – appear to be solid targets that could sneak a bit under the radar as St. Louis is fifth in projected runs tonight (4.79). Snell has allowed a 32.8% Hard% and 40.6% FB% to 343 RHB this season, which pairs particularly well with Molina (48.7% Hard%, 44.9% FB%), while DeJong (42.1% FB%, 29.0% Hard%) and Gyorko (39.5%, 32.1% Hard%) have a good shot to take advantage of Snell’s hitter-friendly fly ball rate. If we include last season’s data for a bigger sample size, Pham’s and Gyorko’s ISOs drop but stay strong at .244 and .202, respectively, while Molina’s drops more noticeably to .178. At the same time, Piscotty’s rises to .216 and Grichuk’s jumps to .229. Overall, they look like an appealing group to stack against an exploitable pitcher who has one of the highest SIERAs on the slate (5.02).
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk, Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty
Saturday's Chicago White Sox lineup has a combined .140 ISO, .284 wOBA, and 24.3% K% against RHP this season
With sample sizes ranging from 123-376 plate appearances against righties in 2017, Chicago’s starters have had plenty of opportunities at the dish – most of them simply haven’t done much with their chances. That said, the meat of the order – Jose Abreu (.216 ISO, .336 wOBA, 17.6% K% vs RHP this season), Avisail Garcia (.195 ISO, .342 wOBA, 21.1% K%), and Matt Davidson (.285 ISO, .326 wOBA, 41.3% K%) – have been solid and could pose a problem for opposing pitcher Buck Farmer. Through 40 RHB faced, Farmer has given up a .408 wOBA to right-handers, along with a 42.9% Hard% and .316 ISO. On the positive side, he has a 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handed opponents. Although he’s only expected to face three lefties, he has an impressive 34.3% K% through 35 LHB faced. While Farmer has a small sample through just four starts this season, he’s posted a promising 15.0% SwStr%. Additionally, his 3.26 SIERA is way better than his 6.62 ERA, which tanked over his last two outings – he didn’t make it out of the third inning in either contest, allowing 13 total runs in the process. Afterwards, he was sent down to the minors and hasn’t pitched in the bigs since June 18th. He fit in 11 starts during that period, racking up at least six strikeouts on seven occasions. While undoubtedly risky, against this weak White Sox lineup with a 24.3% strikeout rate, the upside is there. In his first start this season, which coincidentally was against CHW, he fanned 11 in 6.1 shutout innings. With plenty of other SP2 options available in a similar price range, the $6.4k Farmer (on DraftKings) will surely go low-owned, making him an interesting high-risk GPP value option given the spot.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson No weather concerns in Saturday's MLB forecast
David has listed all games GREEN tonight, without a single issue popping up. Wind won’t play a major factor as all outdoor games are expecting winds between 6-11 mph. Most matchups are expecting temperatures between 74-80 degrees at first pitch, although three games will reach the mid-80s. It’ll be warmest in Atlanta (84 degrees) for the Rockies-Braves meeting, complete with humidity reaching into the mid-60s. The coldest matchup features the Royals and Indians; we’re expecting it to be 69 degrees at Progressive Field when Michael Clevinger gets the game rolling. Check out the full details on our weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Nick Castellanos scratched Friday; Dixon Machado replaces and will bat seventh
Castellanos has officially been scratched from the Detroit Tigers lineup for tonight’s game against the Chicago White Sox due to a presumed wrist issue. He’ll be replaced in the said lineup by Dixon Machado, who will take over the third base duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will bump James McCann all up to the five-spot from his original batting position of seventh. However, the remainder of the Tigers previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Jason Beck Other tagged players: Dixon Machado Not a single weather issue on Friday night's slate.
David is filling in for Kevin tonight and does not mark a single game with weather concerns. In his words, “No rain, no wind….and it won’t be hot or humid either!” The RotoGrinders Weather page has the full report along with expected conditions for every game.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Nick Delmonico (sprained right wrist) scratched Friday
Delmonico is dealing with a strained right wrist, which will force him out of Friday’s lineup. Things keep on improving for Verlander, as he’s facing a watered down Chicago lineup. Considering that the Sox lineup has already been watered down since the trade deadline, this is a great draw for the Tigers righty, setting him up as a strong option in any format.
As reported by: @WhiteSox
Michael Wacha expected to be the cheaper compliment to high priced arms on DraftKings
Jacob deGrom is expected to be tonight’s most owned pitcher after the Washington Nationals announced a lineup without almost every regular except for Daniel Murphy. No other pitcher is expected to be in more than 15% of lineups on FanDuel currently. Michael Wacha looks to be the popular lower priced complement on DraftKings. While in a high strikeout spot against the Rays, his strikeout rate has dropped to 17.4% over the last month and he’s failed surpass five innings in three of his last four starts. Julio Teheran is projected at just 5% on DraftKings, is cheaper than Wacha and could be the better choice against an offense with a 79 wRC+ and 24.4 K% on the road. The Rockies have just one legitimate LH hitter and RHBs have a -2.1 Hard-Soft% and 16.7 K-BB% against Teheran this year. With several hard contact bearing pitchers on the mound tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays are expected to be most popular, but not overwhelmingly so against Bartolo Colon and his devilish 6.66 ERA with just a 13.9 K%. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander get a bump w/ several players missing from opposing lineups
The Washington Nationals have a 102 wRC+ and 14.8 HR/FB against RHP this season. Those stats have taken a bump since the Bryce Harper injury though. They have a 33 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 4.1 HR/FB over the last week. Tonight, it gets even worse. Daniel Murphy is the only Opening Day starter in the lineup. Using PlateIQ, we can see a .298 wOBA, .151 ISO and 25.1 K% for this confirmed lineup against RHP. Jacob deGrom gets a nice bump. The Chicago White Sox have an 87 wRC+ and 16.0 K-BB% against RHP this year. They’ve actually improved some since trading off vets and inserting Leury Garcia, Yoan Moncada and Nick Delmonico into ever day roles. Delmonico is the only one of the three in the lineup tonight. Moncada has hit the DL, but Garcia is a bit of a surprise omission. Via PlateIQ again, this confirmed lineup has a .300 wOBA, .127 ISO and 23 K% against RHP this year. Justin Verlander gets a bump as well. Note: Delmonico’s late scratch now makes it a .285 wOBA, .118 ISO and 21.9 K% for the confirmed White Sox lineup against RHP.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Nicky Delmonico Jason Vargas has allowed 10 HRs with a 44.5 Hard% over his last seven starts
Jason Vargas has had some success as a low strikeout, extreme fly ball pitcher due to a big park, great outfield defense and lots of weak contact. He has an ERA above seven over his last seven starts because one of those things has gone away. He’s allowed 10 HRs over that span with a 44.5% hard hit rate. Cleveland bats with power should be closely looked at tonight. Jake Odorizzi matches that hard hit rate (45.6%), only RHBs for the entire year with 17 of his 25 HRs allowed. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham is not in the St Louis lineup tonight, but some Paul DeJong (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP) exposure may be mandatory. Some other pitchers who have allowed too much hard contact include Parker Bridwell who’s 88.4 mph aEV and 39.7% 95+ mph EV are both among the worst rates on the board with a 23.3 LD% to match. He has a 2.92 ERA due to an 83.8 LOB%. Kendall Graveman’s 89 mph aEV and 41.6 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board. Jerad Eickhoff has a 35.3 GB% over his last seven starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in six of them. Ariel Miranda has allowed a league leading 31 HRs this year and his 9.0% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark on the board. His opponent, the Yankees are second in sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (114). Jeremy Hellickson allowed five HRs in his last start and has a hard hit rate above 40% in five of his last seven starts without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of those starts. Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day and it favors some Boston batters tonight against a pitcher allowing nearly 10% Value Hits to LHBs this year. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Robert Stephenson has the only double digit barrel rate on the board (11.6% of BBEs). Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Jason Vargas, Jake Odorizzi, Kendall Graveman, Jerad Eickhoff, Ariel Miranda, Jeremy Hellickson, Robert Stephenson Bartolo Colon has a 43.0% HH% and 85.1% LOB% since joining Minnesota
Bartolo Colon currently finds himself in the midst of a stretch since signing with the Minnesota Twins where he hasn’t been completely terrible. In fact, he’s managed to “limit” his opponents to four earned runs or less in all seven outings, and somehow was able to manufacture a seven-inning shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers three short starts ago. He’ll take the mound tonight for the eighth time as a member of the Twins rotation against a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that is nothing special against right-handed pitching on the year, but are still in a perfect position to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking hitters out (13.9% K%) from both sides of the plate. Although, on the season, Colon has been substantially worse against left-handed batters, evidenced by a 45.8% fly ball rate and 41.9% hard hit rate compared to a more respectable 49.0% groundball rate and 31.8% hard hit rate versus righties. Unfortunately, this Blue Jays squad lacks the ability to go super left-handed, but they do still possess a few bats that should be able to capitalize on Colon’s low strikeout and massive hard contact numbers. This means that Justin Smoak (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .277 ISO) is the premier one-off option from this Toronto lineup given his plate skills and power upside against right-handed pitching. With that said, Colon isn’t immune to right-handed batters by any means, but he certainly does have a better ability to control batted ball outcomes on a more consistent basis, which makes guys like Josh Donaldson (142 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP), Steve Pearce (121 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP), and Jose Bautista (.182 ISO vs RHP) more effective as tournament options than core pieces to a cash game roster.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Steve Pearce, Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon Three Arizona bats (Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez, A.J. Pollock) among top 10 projected tonight
Paul Goldschmidt is tonight’s top projected player (RotoGrinders Player Projections) on the team with tonight’s highest projected Vegas run line, facing a contact prone, LHP (Ty Blach) in Arizona tonight. While Blach has an 85.6 mph aEV this year, RHBs do have a .341 wOBA and 32.7 Hard%. Teammate J.D. Martinez (267 wRC+, .552 ISO vs LHP) joins him in the top five, along with Giancarlo Stanton (167 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP) against Travis Wood and Mike Trout (204 wRC+, .374 ISO vs RHP) against Collin McHugh. Anthony Rizzo is a top five projected bat on FanDuel against Jerad Eickhoff (35.3 GB% with a 33+ Hard% in six of last seven), though tied for 10th on DraftKings. A.J. Pollock (84 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP) gives Arizona three bats among the top 10. Pollock doubles as a top value on FanDuel (3.74 Pt/$/K), along with Jose Ramirez (3.86 Pt/$/K) and Asdrubal Cabrera (3.76 Pt/$/K), who are both below $3K. Among those projected for at least seven DraftKings points, Jose Bautista (2.86 Pt/$/K) and Miguel Cabrera (2.73 Pt/$/K) are value plays against Bartolo Colon and Miguel Gonzalez.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: JD Martinez, A.J. Pollock, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Bautista, Jose Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Miguel Cabrera