DFS Alerts
Jacob deGrom has eight or more Ks in five of last six starts and seven of last 10
Jacob deGrom (28.3%), Zack Greinke (28.1%) and Jose Quintana (25.3%) have the highest strikeout rates on the board. deGrom (13.4%), Greinke (12.9%), Kenta Maeda (12.8%), and Collin McHugh (12.1%) have the highest SwStr rates without an innings qualifier. Maeda (7.71), J.A. Happ (7.17), and Justin Verlander (7.12) are projected for the most strikeouts by the Daily K Predictor. Greinke and Quintana are in a virtual tie atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections with Maeda and Verlander also in a near tie a bit behind them. Maeda has struck out 27 of 89 batters in August, combining that with excellent contact management (84.7 mph aEV and 28.3% 95+ mph EV are exceeded by just one other pitcher with more than two starts today) in a high strikeout spot against the the Brewers, who have a 25 K% on the road and vs RHP, in LA. The only real issue is that he hasn’t reached 95 pitches since early May. deGrom has eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts and seven of his last 10. The Nationals have a 33 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 4.1 HR/FB (25.5 Hard%) over the last week. Verlander has a 24.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts. The White Sox have an 87 wRC+ and 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. They’ve actually improved since trading off veterans, but one of their top rookie bats (Moncada) just hit the DL. Greinke has a 22.2 K-BB% that is best on the board and sixth best among qualified pitchers, while his 28.4% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest marks on the board. The Giants have just a 10.7 HR/FB on the road, though the park in Arizona is a detractor. Happ has struck out at least eight in three of his last four starts and has an 11.5 SwStr% over the last month, pushing his season rate up to a career high 9.8% again. Since the All-Star break (seven starts) he has a -2.5 Hard-Soft%. Quintana fails to support his strikeout rate with just an 8.4 SwStr%, but has a nice matchup in Philadelphia (83 wRC+ vs LHP). McHugh has a 32.6 GB% that could be an issue if his 9.3 HR/FB hits double digits. He has just a 2.1% Barrels/BBE through six starts, but the Angels have just a 1.5 K-BB% over the last week. A potential sleeper, Julio Teheran has a 24.4 K% over the last month. The Rockies have a 16.8 K-BB% and 79 wRC+ on the road this season. RHBs have a -2.1 Hard-Soft% and 16.7 K-BB% against Teheran this year, which takes nearly everyone not named Blackmon out of the equation tonight. He costs less than $7K on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Kenta Maeda, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, J.A. Happ, Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran, Collin McHugh
Justin Upton has a 317 wRC+, 72.7 Hard% and four HRs over the last week
Remember when Justin Upton seemed like a bust after signing that big contract with Detroit? That’s not really the prevailing assessment anymore and certainly not over the last week in which he has a 317 wRC+ and 72.7 Hard% that both lead all active major league players (10 PA min.). He’s hit four HRs over that span and faces Miguel Gonzalez (RHBs .316 wOBA, 29.2 Hard%) in Chicago tonight. Luis Valbuena (301 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, three HRs) is the only other batter in the league with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. The Angels will hose Collin McHugh, who has allowed barrels on just 2.1% of batted balls in six starts this year. Kendrys Morales (37 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, no HRs) and Chris Davis (190 wRC+, 71.4 Hard%, two HRs) each have a hard hit rate above 70% over the last week too. Morales has done the least with his hard contact without a HR and a low wRC+, having struck out 26.7% of his 15 PAs. Both Davis and Upton have a 41% strikeout rate to go with their 70+ Hard% over the last seven days. Rhys Hoskins (263 wRC+, 50 Hard%), Manny Machado (221 wRC+, 48 Hard%), and Gary Sanchez (207 wRC+, 40 Hard%) are all tied for the lead with five HRs over the last week. Hoskins and Sanchez both have the platoon advantage tonight, while Machado and Sanchez are both facing very home run prone pitchers (Rick Porcello at Fenway, Ariel Miranda at Yankee Stadium).
Other tagged players: Luis Valbuena, Kendrys Morales, Chris Davis, Rhys Hoskins, Manny Machado, Gary Sanchez LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% against Jeremy Hellickson last seven starts
Eleven teams have a projected run line of 4.85 or higher on a full slate with Arizona (5.82) and Boston (5.62) nearly one-third of a run separated from the rest of the pack on top. Paul Goldschmidt (144 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP) and J.D. Martinez (267 wRC+, .552 ISO vs LHP) are always going to look tremendous against a marginal lefty at home. Both have a wRC+ below 55, but hard hit rate at 40% or above over the last week. Ty Blach has just an 11.4 K% on the season, but also an 85.6 mph aEV. It should be interesting with a weak contact generator going from San Francisco to Arizona. Boston faces Jeremy Hellickson, who allowed five HRs in his last start. Over his last seven starts, he has a hard hit rate above 40% five times without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of them. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Rafael Devers (130 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (117 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays there, though both have a wRC+ and hard hit rate below average over the last week. Mitch Moreland (106 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) has a 268 wRC+, but just a 23.5 Hard% over the last seven days. The Reds are in the middle of the board, with an implied run line of 4.52 runs, but players should strongly consider their LHBs at home. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler all have an ISO above .250 against RHP this year. LHBs have a .398 wOBA and 10 HRs against Ivan Nova over his last 14 starts.
Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Paul Goldschmidt, JD Martinez, Ty Blach, Jeremy Hellickson No weather concerns on Thursday night
David is in for Kevin today. There are no weather related concerns in his forecast. Players can read the report and find conditions for all games on the Weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Martin Perez owns a 5.21 xFIP and 4.0% K-BB% versus RHB this season
Outside of a two-start anomaly in early August against the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets, allowing two earned runs or less in each Start, Martin Perez has mostly been unable to keep up his magic act that has continuously frustrated daily fantasy players for the last couple of years. If unaware of this madness, Perez typically has had the uncanny ability to work himself out of jams and limit the overall damage to somewhat respectable totals in most of his outings. However, he has shown cracks in this aforementioned armor lately, allowing six or more earned runs in three of his last five performances. So much of what makes Perez “successful” is his solid pitching profile to left-handed batters, evidenced by a 22.4% strikeout rate, 55.8% groundball rate, and 25.3% hard hit rate, all of which are above-average numbers. These skills are something he will have a nearly impossible time relying on Thursday night as the Los Angeles Angels have just one lefty in their lineup this evening. His previously mentioned skillset takes a drastic downturn against right-handed batters, posting just a 12.3% strikeout rate in 108.1 innings pitched this season while surrendering hard contact 36.8% of the time, leading to a lofty .368 wOBA and 1.41 HR/9 allowed to righties. This all sets up perfectly well for this Angels lineup, as a few of their right-handed bats possess discernible skills against southpaws, with Mike Trout (168 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .203 ISO) decisively leading the way. On top of Trout, virtually any righty cracking the Los Angeles lineup is more than playable on this slate with C.J. Cron (134 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) and Andrelton Simmons (101 wRC+, .318 wOBA vs LHP) being the other definitive players to target, while Albert Pujols and Cameron Maybin make for viable options to round out an Angels stack in large-field tournaments despite their overall struggles with left-handed pitching thus far this season.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols, Cameron Maybin, Martin Perez
Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo both have a 190 wRC+, 45+ Hard% last seven days
Troy Scribner is a 26 year-old rookie with 13.1 major league innings to his name. His 14.7 K-BB% at AAA this season (103 innings) is his highest rate since A ball in 2014. He also hasn’t had a ground ball rate above 40.5% since then either. That’s not necessarily a terrible thing in Los Angeles and the big park should help him out against a Texas offense with an 82 wRC+ on the road and 23.7 K% vs RHP. There’s really no discernible reason that would make him a pitcher players would want to use here except for a low cost in a big park and that players may need one of those on DraftKings. The Rangers have the fifth highest implied run line on the slate, but that’s still only 4.39 runs. The top lineup target should be Adrian Beltre (130 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP). He has a 191 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week. Shin-Soo Choo (109 wRC+, .162 ISO) is a bit more affordable near the top of the lineup, having a similar week (190 wRC+, 50 Hard%). Drew Robinson has handled RHP (118 wRC+, .238 ISO) and costs a bit above the minimum.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Drew Robinson, Troy Scribner RHBs have a .486 wOBA (41.8 Hard%) with 17 HRs against Derek Holland since June 2nd
RHBs have a .410 wOBA and 25 HRs against Derek Holland. Make that a .486 wOBA and 17 HRs with a 41.8 Hard% since June 2nd. Even the two Minnesota LHBs tonight should probably try standing in the right-handed batter’s box. They too have a .350 wOBA against Holland over this span, but with a 59.4 GB% and 31.3 Hard%. As many RH Twins as possible. That’s how many Minnesota batters should be in your lineup. Brian Dozier (167 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP) is the top hitter on the slate according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections and most people who have seen Derek Holland pitch or read his stats lately. Byron Buxton has hit for no power against LHP (100 wRC+, .060 ISO), but moves all the way up to third in the order and has a 144 wRC+ over the last week. The Twins are starting two RH Catcher eligibles (Mitch Garver & Chris Gimenez) at very low costs tonight. Gimenez actually has the second highest ISO (.196) against LHP in tonight’s lineup. Vegas projects the Minnesota offense about one-third of a run better than any other team tonight (5.65 implied runs).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Chris Gimenez, Derek Holland Carlos Martinez has notched a 24.0% K-BB% and 2.99 xFIP versus RHB
Carlos Martinez has been in less than stellar form recently, allowing less than three earned runs just once in his previous five starts. On the bright side, however, he has been relatively consistent in the strikeout department, managing seven or more punchouts in all but one of the aforementioned outings. Martinez is far from a top-three real life pitcher on this slate, despite having the second-highest salary on DraftKings and third-highest on FanDuel, but he’ll certainly be the beneficiary of a significant matchup boost against an exploitable, righty-heavy San Diego Padres offense. This Padres lineup is basically as left-handed as they can get with three lefties cracking the order this evening. This is always a positive sign for Martinez, as he has some serious control (11.7% BB%) and hard contact (37.5% HH%) issues against left-handed batters. It also doesn’t hurt that the Padres lack any lefties that would really give us any serious cause for concern in rostering Martinez in this matchup. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Martinez has been as dominant as ever against right-handed batters this season, evidenced by a 29.3% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and a below-average 29.4% hard hit rate to go along with solid ground ball skills to hitters from both sides of the plate. Further moving the needle in favor of rostering Martinez is the fact that the Padres own the second-highest strikeout rate (25.3% K%) versus right-handed pitching, substantially increasing his ceiling tonight. While San Diego does possess decent power (.172 ISO vs RHP), there is still some safety in this spot, as the Padres only rank 28th in wRC+ (87) and 29th in wOBA (.305) against right-handed pitching, which just further elevates Martinez’s floor and previously mentioned ceiling. Clearly, these statistics vault Martinez close to the same tier of Chris Sale as a top starting pitching option on Thursday’s slate, but he still remains just behind and is better reserved for tournament formats given Sale’s large advantage in the strikeout department (36.6% K%) and the relatively small gap in salary across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Strikeouts are down, but Dallas Keuchel has a double digit SwStr% in three straight starts
Dallas Keuchel has struck out three or fewer in four of his five starts since returning from the DL. His last start in particular was a mixed bag from a batted ball perspective with an 89.5 GB%, but 40% hard hit rate. For the season, his 84 mph aEV is lowest on the slate with a 66.2 GB% that leads the league by nearly three full points among those with at least 100 innings pitched. His 9.7 SwStr% is league average since returning, even if overall strikeouts are down. In fact, he has a double digit SwStr% in four of five and three straight starts. The Nationals are missing nearly half the lineup due to injuries and have a 27.0 K% and 6.0 HR/FB over the last week. This makes Keuchel a reasonable option. The ball has been kept on the ground, if not much else, since his return with RHBs putting it on the ground more often (64.9%) than LHBs (57.1%), but with a 40.5 Hard% vs 25 Hard% for LHBs. The Nationals have somewhat of a four headed monster against LHP at the top of the lineup however. Ryan ZImmermann (153 wRC+, .333 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (183 wRC+, .329 ISO) have been punishing southpaws all season, while Howie Kendrick (173 wRC+, .272 ISO) and Wilmer Difo (171 wRC+, .216 ISO) have been making up for lost time and smaller sample sizes. Which ever side players end up on in this matchup, and good arguments can be made for both, hedging with the other side in a different lineup may be wise as well.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Wilmer Difo, Howie Kendrick Stephen Strasburg struck out eight in his return from DL; Astros have a 103 wRC+ in August
Stephen Strasburg struck out eight of 22 batters faced in his return from the DL. While this seems like perhaps his best season, his 21.2 K-BB% is actually below his career rate by a point, though his 12.7 SwStr% is a career high with just a 5.7 Hard-Soft%. Houston has a 121 wRC+ at home and 126 wRC+ vs RHP. Though they’ve maintained a low strikeout rate (16.5% at home, 17.3% vs RHP, 14.8% last seven days), they have just a 103 wRC+ and .172 ISO in August, essentially league average numbers, making this appear a manageable spot for Strasburg. He costs $3.1K less than Sale on DraftKings, which could make him the top pitching value, but just $800 less on FanDuel. Exposure to Houston bats at a high cost is not ideal. Batters from either side have a wOBA below .300, hard hit rate below 30% and K-BB above 20% against Strasburg this year. While Jose Altuve and George Springer are never poor ideas for a daily fantasy lineup, it’s unlikely players will want to spend so much on a poor spot.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer RHBs have a 68.1 GB% against Luis Perdomo, but nine of his 14 HRs allowed
The continued absence of Matt Carpenter from the lineup could help make the argument for some Luis Perdomo exposure tonight. While he hasn’t been accumulating the strikeouts (15% over the last month), his 9.1 SwStr% has remained consistent with his season rate, just below league average. RHBs have a 68.1 GB% against him, but nine of the 14 HRs he’s allowed. This confirmed St Louis lineup has a .344 wRC+, .180 ISO and 22.7 K% against RHP. The Cardinals have the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.87). Dexter Fowler (128 wRC+, .247 ISO, 39.5 FB%) is the one batter that batters should have exposure to here, while Paul DeJong (126 wRC+, .265 ISO, 43.2 FB%) makes sense as a middle infield option as well. Tommy Pham (135 wRC+, .168 ISO vs RHP) has just a 21.7 FB% against RHP. He, Fowler and Yadier Molina all have a hard hit rate above 60% over the last week though. Luis Perdomo costs just $5.9K on DraftKings though, where Chris Sale players may need to use him as an SP2.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina Jose Berrios has allowed a 37.5% HH% in August, but hasn't eclipsed a 26.0% HH% in any prior month
Jose Berrios broke out of his recent slump in a big way his last time out, hurling seven shutout innings on his way to a tidy seven strikeout performance against a formidable Arizona Diamondbacks offense. Despite the recent rough patch, Berrios certainly seems to have figured it out at the Major League level for the most part and has officially “arrived” as the front-end of the rotation starting pitcher he had been continuously touted as during the last couple of seasons. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 95:31 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.0% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last year. Berrios has been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 27.6% hard hit rate, and though that mark may be somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a few percentage points over time. It’s easy to see that Berrios is a great young pitcher with strikeout potential (23.5% K% vs RHB) who has discovered decent control at the big league level. Tonight, he’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a susceptible Chicago White Sox squad that ranks 27th in wRC+ (87), 28th in wOBA (.306), and 24th in ISO (.160) versus right-handed pitching. In addition to striking out at a middling 22.5% clip, the White Sox rank nearly dead last in walk rate (6.7% BB%), checking in with the second-worst mark by just a tenth of a percentage point, which should very much in Berrios’ favor this evening. On a slate with a plethora of high-priced, high-strikeout arms, Berrios seems likely to go extremely overlooked with most players paying up for at least one starting pitcher across the industry. Although it is still tough to make a viable case for fading the top starting pitching options on one-pitcher sites like FanDuel, it should end up being a contrarian approach to pair two mid-range pitchers like Berrios and Trevor Bauer, for example, in most large-field tournament formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Chris Sale has a 31.9 K-BB% (best in the majors) with nine or more Ks in 11 of 12 starts
Cleveland is actually tied with San Diego for the lowest implied run line on the board (3.1), but Chris Sale leads the majors with a by nearly two full points with a 31.9 K-BB%.He has at least nine strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts and 21 of 24. The Daily K Predictor projects him for the most strikeouts (8.44) by a full strikeout over Strasburg (7.41). He’s clearly the top pitcher on the board, though the RotoGrinders Player Projects appear to like Carlos Martinez in a great spot just as much. If searching for potential holes, Sale has been below his season SwStr rate (15.2%) in six straight starts, though at 12.5% or higher in three straight. The Indians have a 101 wRC+ at home in a fairly positive run environment and a 100 wRC+ vs LHP, but with just a 17.9 K% and 10.2 BB%. He’s become a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher, especially against RHBs (35.6 GB%). They have 12 of his 15 HRs surrendered this year with a 30 Hard%, though a 33 K-BB%. It’s not out of the question that a RHB takes him deep and while most would immediately think of Edwin Encarnacion (125 wRC+, .187 ISO vs LHP), Austin Jackson (169 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP) has has more success against southpaws at a lower cost and would be easier to roster as an Outfielder than a First Baseman. Francisco Lindor (127 wRC+, .198 ISO vs LHP) does have a HR with a 91 mph aEV (13 BBEs) in 17 career PAs with just two strikeouts against Sale. Significant exposure to Cleveland bats is not recommended though.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Jackson, Francisco Lindor Trevor Bauer has a 26.2 K% and 10.8 SwStr% over the last month
Nobody ever feels good about using Trevor Bauer, but for those who would rather pay up for bats than arms, he might be an option. Consider that at the same cost, he has a strikeout rate 7.8 points higher and a swinging strike rate 3.4 points higher than Jose Berrios over the last month. While the Boston lineup does not strike out a lot, 19.4% on the road and against RHP is not far below league average and this lineup does not supply much power. Plate IQ gives this confirmed lineup a .331 wOBA, .176 ISO and 18.5 K% against RHP this year, essentially average considering the positive run environment they play in. The main issue is that Cleveland is not a much worse scoring environment. Bauer’s 88.9 mph aEV is still highest on the slate too. LHBs have a 43.4 GB% with a 20.9 Hard-Soft%, while RHBs have a 48.4 GB% and 19.8 Hard-Soft%, so not much difference there, but the strikeout rate is six points higher against RHBs (28.9%), which explains the 35 point gap in wOBA. The core LHBs here should still play, but the Red Sox have an implied run line (3.88) that’s fourth lowest on the board. Andrew Benintendi (118 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Rafael Devers (137 wRC+, .309 ISO) have both hit RHP well, but with a wRC+ below 100 and hard hit rate of 25% or less over the last week. Worth noting, not a single RHB in the lineup has an ISO above .185 this season vs RHP, while Mookie Betts has just a 98 wRC+.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers RHBs have a .178 wOBA, 59.1 GB% and -12 Hard-Soft% vs Jake Arrieta since the break
Jake Arrieta hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a start since the All-Star break. He’s done that with a 15.2 K-BB%, 46.8 GB% and 5.6 Hard-Soft%. It’s the weak contact that’s been the key and should help him get through one of the more difficult matchups on the slate against a hot Cincinnati offense. They have 135 wRC+, 5.6 K-BB% and 22 HR/FB over the last week. This is one of the few marginal matchups on the slate where there’s not a clear side to favor, though it’s assumed that players would like to avoid Cincinnati bats against Arrieta. The Reds have a 4.15 implied run line that’s smack in the middle of the board. Over this stretch, since the break, RHBs have a .178 wOBA, with a 59.1 GB%, 18.2 IFFB% and -12 Hard-Soft%. This should disqualify the few RHBs in this lineup with Zack Cozart (135 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP) the only one even worth wavering over at a difficult position. LHBs have a .350 wOBA, despite an 18.8 K-BB%, due to just a 32.8 GB% and 25.9 Hard-Soft% over the same span. Over the last two seasons, LHBs have been about league average (.306 wOBA, 30.5 Hard%, 46.1 GB%) against Arrieta. This keeps Joey Votto (168 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP) squarely in play with low ownership likely. Scooter Gennett (140 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) and Jesse Winker (158 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) are certainly viable salary savors.
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jesse Winker