DFS Alerts

The Offense with More Top Projected Bats Than Either Coors Team

It’s usually the opposing team at Coors that has the highest implied run line on the board, but tonight, it’s the home team above six runs (6.17) against Zach Davies with the visiting Diamondbacks not far behind (5.83). The Padres, Astros and Dodgers also have team run totals exceeding five and a half runs with six more at the 4.5 run mark or higher. While we do find that 40% of the top 10 projected batters on either site are Coors bats, it’s only a pair from each team atop the board. Charlie Blackmon (96 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP this year) is projected as the third best bat on the board with teammate C.J. Cron (136 wRC+, .247 ISO) not too far below. While Zach Davies did throw five shutout innings at the Rockies last time out, he’s now struck out just nine of his last 77 batters to drop his season strikeout rate to 18.2% (9.9 K-BB%) and he had allowed 11 runs (four home runs) over his previous 11 innings. It’s almost as if he was frightened of reaching a 20% strikeout rate, so he stopped. Generally a strong contact manager (86.1 mph EV, 31.4% 95+ mph EV this year), he’s even allowed eight barrels (10.3%) over his last five starts. His 4.03 season ERA is below estimators ranging from a 4.11 xERA to 4.57 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .302 and .328 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year, while his recent issues may only be exacerbated at Coors.

On the other side, Antonio Senzatela has completed 19.2 innings over his last three starts with three straight Quality Starts, but holds a 4.68 ERA that’s in between estimators ranging widely from a 4.05 xFIP to a 5.38 xERA and DRA on the season. He rarely walks batters (5.3%), but nearly as rarely strikes them out (13.3%). He has a 90.5 mph EV, but limited barrels to 4.9% with nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. Projections like a pair of LHBs against him the most, in Daulton Varsho (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Ketel Marte (109 wRC+, .175 ISO). Batters from that side of the plate have a .378 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against Senzatela this year, while RHBs have actually been better (.402 wOBA, .376 xwOBA).

With only six spots remaining among the top 10 projected bats tonight, the Dodgers claim half of them. At times this season, Daniel Lynch has flashed some of the tools that have led Fangraphs prospect writers to slap a 50 Future Value grade on him. He has a 28.3 K% and 21.1 K-BB% over his last seven starts, but with a .389 BABIP. On the season, he has a very competent 14.1 K-BB%, though the contact profile is a concern, despite just 7.9% Barrels/BBE (91.1 mph EV, 47% 95+ mph EV). The hard contact has shown up more in the .339 BABIP. His 4.79 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 4.08 FIP to a 4.43 DRA. As mentioned, he’s recently been showing signs of being much better than that, though the Dodgers will certainly be a massive test and the weather in an already positive run environment in Kansas City is currently expected to favor hitters. RHBs have a .338 wOBA and .319 xwOBA against Lync this year, while LHBs have a .322 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA. Projections favor the top third of the Dodger lineups, which essentially includes three MVP candidates in Mookie Betts (180 wRC+, .299 ISO), Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Trea Turner (173 wRC+, .296 ISO).

By the way, the top projected bat on the board is Juan Soto (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in his (week) long awaited return to Washington against Cory Abbott (LHBs .455 wOBA, .300 xwOBA).

Strong Matchups for Many Mid-Range Pitchers

While the top two pitchers on the board separate themselves enough from the rest of the board to remain top five values on either site, they aren’t the only interesting arms on the board. Plenty of pitchers in the $8-9K range on FanDuel project as strong values as well, if players wish to fill their lineups out with more expensive bats. Michael Kopech has just a 3.8 K-BB% over his last eight starts and has completed six innings just twice in his last 10. He has just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season with a 3.38 mostly the product of a .230 BABIP and 79.2 LOB%. On a positive note, he’s throwing his four-seamer 61.5% of the time (-0.6 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%) and facing the worst fastball hitting offense in the majors (-0.69 wFC/C). As you may have guessed, the matchup (Tigers board low 67 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) is the reason he projects as a top two value on either site tonight. He costs $8.2K on FanDuel and more than $1K less on DraftKings. While he’s in the “hard to trust” category there may be even less faith that the Detroit offense can do anything at all against right-handed pitching.

More on his own merits, but also in a great matchup, Luis Garcia is now pitching deeper into games, facing 79 batters over his last three starts. He’s struck out only 17 of them, allowing 11 runs over those 18.2 inning though. This is mostly due to a 63.1 LOB%, but also the reduced strikeout rate. He still has a 25.5 K% on the season with only 34.4% of his contact reaching a 95 mph EV. While 18 of his 24 barrels (7.8%) have left the yard, his 3.93 ERA is a bit above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.37 xERA to a 3.72 xFIP. The A’s have a 79 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP. Garcia projects in an essential tie with the next pitcher as third best on the board and as a top five value on FanDuel, where he is more than $1K cheaper than DraftKings.

Not as many strikeouts this year for Mike Clevinger (22.9%), but with just a 6.3 BB% and 6.9% Barrels/BBE, he’s still doing quality work and has his the six inning mark in five of his last seven starts. His 3.60 ERA is below, but within half a run of estimators ranging from a 3.71 DRA to a 4.01 xFIP. The current iteration of the Washington lineup still doesn’t strike out a ton, but are probably worse than their season numbers (92 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs RHP) since the trade deadline. For $1.3K less on DraftKings, Clevinger is the second best projected value and a great SP2 choice, but can also stand on his own as the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

Finally out of Cincinnati and that band box ballpark, Tyler Mahle allowed three home runs on five barrels to the Blue Jays in his Twins debut. Counting those, 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered at home with 15 of his 24 barrels (league average 8.0%) leaving the yard, there’s reason to believe things could improve for him in Minnesota. Behind a 25.8 K% (17.1 K-BB%), estimators ranging from a 3.39 xERA to a 3.96 xFIP are all well below a 4.49 ERA. Mahle’s best pitch is a four-seamer he utilized 51.7% of the time (-0.8 RV/100, 28.7 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .300). Why mention this? The Angels are the second worst offense in the majors against fastballs (-0.59 wFB/C). They also have the highest strikeout split on the board vs RHP (26.9% with a 96 wRC+). They’ve been one of the coldest offenses in baseball as well (67 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% last seven days). Mahle projects as the seventh best value on either site.

While Austin Voth projects as the top point per dollar value on FanDuel for $5.9K, he probably better serves in the SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $200 more, projecting just outside the top five values. He has an impressive 16.4 K-BB% since moving into the rotation with three of seven barrels (7.2%) leaving the park. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his eight starts, but also hasn’t gone beyond five innings yet. His 2.97 ERA over this span is more than half a run below estimators that are still mostly below four. In a pitcher friendly park, a matchup with the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) offers upside.

For just $6.8K on DraftKings ($1.7K more on FanDuel), Jordan Montgomery projects as the fourth best DK value. He left his St Louis debut (against the Yankees) after 83 pitches with a leg issue before allowing a single run, but striking out only one of the 17 batters he’s faced. While he’s been proclaimed fit to start this game, he’s been below 83 pitches in each of his last three starts and hasn’t hit 90 since before the break. Despite a 13.7 SwStr% and elite control (4.9 BB%), he continues to run a below average strikeout rate (20.2%), which push his estimators as high as 4.33 DRA. Also, despite just 6.5% Barrels/BBE and 34.7% 95+ mph EV, a 4.05 xERA is his second highest estimator. The Brewers struggle with curveballs (-0.26 wCB/C), a pitch Montgomery has utilized with some efficiency this season (21.6%, -0.5 RV/100, 42.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .235). They are also a below average offense against LHP (88 wRC+, 24.8 K%). Perhaps St Louis and this matchup could bring out the best in Montgomery. Regardless, for less than $7K, he’s too cheap.

Only Injuries Have Been Able to Slow Tonight's Top Projected Pitcher Down

A 13 game Friday night slate features just three $10K pitches, though all three reach that price point on both sites. Two more exceed $9K on both sites with nearly half the board in the $8-9K range. Max Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the board and has failed to complete six innings in just two of his 15 starts this year and once by just a single out. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last nine and has a 27.7 K-BB% with just 32.9% of contact reaching a 95 mph EV on the season. It seems as if he doesn’t experience age related decline and only injuries can stop him. Estimators are well above his 1.98 ERA (85.6 LOB%, 7.7 HR/FB – the latter the lowest mark of his career, pitching in the most pitcher friendly park of his career), but only his xFIP (3.13) reached three. The Phillies are the hottest offense in baseball (162 wRC+, 8.5 K-BB%, 22.6 HR/FB last seven days), but have to transition to a much power difficult park, have just a 99 wRC+ (22.4 K%) vs RHP and are now down both of their power hitting LHBs (Harper & Schwarber). Key because Scherzer has a 61 point xwOBA split this season and complete dominates RHBs (.224 wOBA, .240 xwOBA). Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and the third best projected value on either site. For much more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the best Scherzer pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Blue Jays-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Blue Jays-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

The Stack That Competes with St Louis for Top Value on Both Sites

With more separation from the rest of the board, while facing a LHP at Coors tonight, the St Louis Cardinals are expected to be the most popular stack on the board for a second night in a row, but by a much larger margin than yesterday. In fact, with just nine games on the board, St Louis stacks currently project more than double the ownership of any other stack on FanDuel, while also projecting for 15% ownership on DraftKings as well. (Projections are fluid and subject to change.) The Cardinals also smash the slate around 20% of the time in simulations without any other team doing so at a rate higher than 12.5% (Blue Jays). As was the case yesterday, several stacks are bunched together atop the Value% column on FanDuel, one of them certainly the Cardinals, but also both teams in Arizona and the Guardians. It’s a two team competition for top value stack on DraftKings, between the Pirates and Cardinals. The St Louis lineup is expected to feature some cheaper right-handed platoon bats (Albert Pujols) tonight. For much more on the top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections Show Lots of Value in These Two Lineups

It’s not that there are a lot of high priced pitchers on tonight’s slate. In fact, there are only a few who merit consideration, but the pitchers below them, though graced with some favorable matchups, are almost completely lacking of upside. Considering it’s probably a good idea to pay up for pitching tonight and you probably want to stack Coors offenses, who separate from the rest of the board by quite a bit, then you probably also need some cheaper bats to offset the cost. As was the cast yesterday, FanDuel projections simply suggest that you have to alter your stacks a bit with Dylan Carlson (159 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP this year), Albert Pujols (147 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (118 wRC) all not only projecting as top bats tonight, but top values as well, even though the latter costs $3.5K. For less than $3K, Paul DeJong (125 wRC+, .188 ISO) projects as a top value as well. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against Kyle Freeland this year

Yesterday, it was a bit more difficult to stack St Louis bats, but facing a LHP gets some minimally priced right-handed platoon bats in there. The result is that the top three projected values on DraftKings are also Cardinals. Pujols, Lars Nootbaar (68 wRC+, .053 ISO) and Yadier Molina (25 wRC+, .028 ISO) cost no more than $2.1K. Nootbaar is a LHB, but same handed batters have a .391 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against Freeland this year.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected values and do so only on FanDuel. (A pair of Royals – Vinnie Pasquantino & Nick Pratto – also project as top DraftKings values, but are only 1B eligible.) Dean Kremer’s 3.43 is partially built on home run suppression (7.3 HR/FB) in the now pitcher friendly confines of Baltimore and also a high strand rate (79.6%). Just six of his 16 barrels (8.8%) have left the yard. He’s struck out just 17.8% of batters, though there’s room for more (11.2 SwStr%), along with excellent control (5.7 BB%), but non-FIP estimators area all above four and a half. Kremer’s reverse split (RHBs .356 wOBA, .367 xwOBA) could hurt him here. Alejandro Kirk (148 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP this season), Cavan Biggio (109 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (126 wRC+, .117 ISO) all cost less than $3K.

This Offense Separates from the Board, Dominates Projections

With a team run total even higher than last night, now that they are facing a LHP at Coors tonight, the Cardinals (119 wRC+ vs LHP) top a nine game Wednesday night board at 6.67 implied runs. They are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies (5.33), who exploded for double digit runs last night and now also face a LHP with a predominantly right-handed lineup (102 wRC+ vs LHP). The Dodgers (5.08) are the only other team to reach five runs tonight with five more reaching the four and a half run mark.

St Louis bats, once again, dominate projections and are the only offense with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. In fact, each of the top four projected bats tonight are Cardinals. Freeland has struck out 20 of his last 75 against three playoff bound National League offenses, including the Dodgers at Coors. Are we going to believe in that guy or the one with a 17.0 K with an ERA and non-FIP estimators above four and a half this year? He’s been a bit fortunate that just 13 of 34 barrels (8.8%) have left the yard too. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him this year (which really isn’t too bad, considering the first number isn’t park adjusted). Paul Goldschmidt (282 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP this year), Nolan Arenado (169 wRC+, .400 ISO), Dylan Carlson (159 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (118 wRC+, .098 ISO) are the top projected bats on the board with Tommy Edman (98 wRC+, .110 ISO) and even Albert Pujols (147 wRC+, .215 ISO) among the top 12 projections on either site. Despite the team run totals exceeding five runs, neither the Rockies (vs Jose Quintana), nor Dodgers (vs Sonny Gray) project a single batter inside the top 10.

Mid-Range Pitchers in Great Matchups Lack Upside

It’s really difficult not to pay up for one of the $11K pitchers on FanDuel because some of the pitchers who project as better values are not arms with a lot of upside, who are really in trouble if they give up a few runs without the strikeouts to support them. It’s more about great matchups for Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Civale, who are the only pitchers projecting as better values than the top priced arms tonight (though Ryan Pepiot has some weird massive pricing discrepancy between sites going on). Since striking out a season high nine of 29 Nationals three starts back, Bumgarner has struck out just two of 54 Rockies and Braves with four walks. He’s also walked at least three in four of his last seven. Bumgarner has just an 8.5 K-BB% and 90.1 mph EV, resulting in estimators that are all more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.96 ERA, as 10 of his 61 runs have been unearned. He may have some success against Pittsburgh (81 wRC+, 26.2 K% vs LHP) with his cutter (38.3%, 0.5 RV/100), as they’re the second worst offense in baseball against the pitch (-1.47 wFC/C). Bumgarner is the second best projected value on either site for less than $8K and probably makes a better SP2 for $6.9K on DraftKings than a stand-alone arm on FanDuel.

Syndergaard did not fare too well in his Philly debut, allowing more runs (four) than strikeouts (two) against the Nationals. He’s had some fits and starts this year, but in the end, he’s still exhibiting great control (6.1 BB%) with average contact profile, but just hasn’t been able to miss bats the way he used to (18.2 K%). Even his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10.4% (9.4% last nine starts). His 4.02 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators. It’s certainly not the park that draws projections to him (third best projected value on either site). It’s the price tag (under $8K) and matchup (Marlins 97 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP). That doesn’t look too bad, but they were well above a 100 wRC+ against RHP not too long ago.

Aaron Civale returns from the IL to make his first post-break start. He got through 16 batters in a lone rehab start and shouldn’t be too limited here. A league average 21.7 K% and good control (6.3%), Civale’s issue has been the contact profile this year (90.1 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE, 12.1 HR/FB). Things had been stabilizing, as he only allowed a home run in one of his last six starts (7.3% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.07 ERA before hitting the IL. However, his first six starts were so bad that he still has a season ERA above six, while estimators range from a 3.94 SIERA to a 4.74 xERA. Again, cost ($6.5K on either site) and matchup (Tigers 67 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) push his projected value near the top of the board.

It had looked like Jose Berrios had gotten something going until he struck out just a single Twin in his big revenge game last time out. It was the first time he’d allowed multiple home runs in seven starts, but he’s still allowed at least one in all but one of those starts and is still getting barreled up pretty regularly (24 home runs on 43 barrels this year). Berrios has a league average 21.1 K% with good control (5.7 BB%), but either seems to put together a gem or get lit up in most of his starts and we can never really predict which way it’ll go. Perhaps the key stat here is that his best pitch is a curveball (-0.7 RV/100, 32.4 Whiff%) that he throws more than any other pitch (32.2%). The Orioles (98 wRC+, 22.2 K%) have been the second best offense in baseball against curveballs this season (0.93 wCU/C), trailing only the Rockies in a stat that is not park adjusted. Berrios is incredibly difficult to trust, but still has upside you probably can’t complete ignore for $7.3K on DraftKings, though you may be able to for nearly $2K more on FanDuel.

Pitchers costing less than $7K, who have been pitching better recently, but are in tough matchups include Dean Kremer (Blue Jays), Glenn Otto (Astros) and Kris Bubic (White Sox 116 wRC+ vs LHP).

This Pitcher Pounds Out Quality Starts with Few Walks & Lots of Popups

A nine game Wednesday night slate features three $10K pitchers on either site, though not necessarily the same three. Most expensively on either site, Justin Verlander has failed to produce a Quality Start just three times in his last 19 outings, while going at least seven innings in seven of his last 11. He’s doing amazing things for a nearly 40 year-old pitcher, but his 1.73 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 2.96 xERA to a 3.43 xFIP. The reasons for this are a .229 BABIP, 83.5 LOB% and eight unearned runs. His 25.5 K% is more good than great, while the 4.6 BB% and 30 infield flies are more impressive. The Rangers represent a favorable matchup with a 94 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP this season. Verlander is the clear top projected arm on the slate and also the top projected value on DraftKings, which is sure to make him immensely popular, though just the fifth best projected FanDuel value for $800 more. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the top Verlander pivot and the high priced pitcher who projects as one of the worst values on one site, but the best on another, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Marlins-Phillies will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Marlins-Phillies will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

The start of Reds-Mets will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Reds-Mets will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

St Louis Stacks Project to be Popular, but Not Overwhelmingly So

On a large 14 game slate loaded with pitching, St Louis stacks project for double digit ownership on FanDuel because they are at Coors, separating themselves by half a run from the rest of the board and are fairly easy to stack along with a $10K pitcher there. They’re a few points behind FanDuel projections, but are still projected to be the most popular stack on DraftKings, where it’s a bit more difficult, but players can still get there with a mid-range SP2. The Cardinals do project to smash the slate significantly more than any other stack, not quite twice as often as the Blue Jays with the second best Smash%, but with a significant gap. Ryan Feltner hasn’t been bad (14.8 K-BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), but it’s Coors and the Cardinal bats have been smoking (140 wRC+ last seven days, 107 wRC+ vs RHP this year). There is a sizeable log jam at the top of the Value% column on FanDuel with the Cardinals being one of the stacks near the top, along with the Phillies, Guardians and Cubs. DraftKings projections see Cincinnati stacks having the most value by a decent amount, though they do face a tough pitcher (Carlos Carrasco) in a tough park (Citi Field) and they did lose three guys (Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan India) from their original lineup yesterday. As always, remember that stacking projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, which can significantly alter Leverage Ratings, but to see where they’re currently at, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections See Lots of Value in Pair of NL Central Lineups

How can you possibly pay up for one of the many $10K pitchers tonight and stack the Cards at Coors as well? Well, FanDuel makes it easy, as three of the top 10 projected values are Cardinals, two of them (Dylan Carlson & Nolan Gorman) among the top 10 projected overall as well. Neither costs more than $3.2K against Ryan Feltner, who has been fine (14.8 K-BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), but it is Coors and LHBs have a .396 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against him. Gorman (118 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP this season) and Carlson (88 wRC+, .146 ISO) are joined by Paul DeJong (57 wRC+, .174 ISO) as a top projected value tonight for $2.7K. DraftKings makes it a bit harder to stack St Louis with Lars Nootbaar (105 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Yadier Molina (49 wRC+) the only top 10 projected values for less than $2.5K each.

Despite the pitcher friendly weather expected at Wrigley tonight, the Cubs have a 4.41 run team total that sits in the top half of the board tonight and Paolo Espino has struck out just 17.2% with 9.4% Barrels/BBE as a starter and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven. Rafael Ortega (93 wRC+) is the top projected value for FanDuel tonight ($2.2K), as well as a top five projected DraftKings value ($2.5K). Espino actually has a reverse split (LHBs .297 wOBA, .325 xwOBA – RHBs .369 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), though Statcast significantly narrows the gap. Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .158 ISO) is also a top projected FanDuel value for $2.8K.

While no other lineup features multiple top 10 projected values, we have to look at the spot in Arizona. Zack Thompson has two Quality Starts this season, against Miami and Cincinnati, and failed to strike out more batters than he walked in either. He has just a 7.1 K-BB% without an estimator below four and a half, although 16 of his 20 barrels (7.1%) have left the yard. Arizona has a 4.71 run team total, while LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .325 against Thompson this year. The Arizona projected lineup does not feature a batter above $3.4K on FanDuel, while Daulton Varsho (124 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Alek Thomas (117 wRC+, .188 ISO) are each $4.1K or less on DraftKings. Christian Walker (91 wRC+, .235 ISO) costs only $3.7K and Thompson has been even worse against RHBs (.358 wOBA, .368 xwOBA).

A Scorching Offense in a Great Park

The Cardinals have a team 140 wRC+ over the last week and 107 wRC+ vs RHP this year. They head to Coors off of a series bludgeoning of quality Yankee pitching with a board topping 6.23 implied run line. The Mets are nearly a half run below yesterday (5.65), but this may be more due to the weather being not as hitter friendly because Mike Minor hasn’t been much better than Justin Dunn. The Atlanta Braves (5.23) are the only other team above five implied runs, as they travel to Fenway, which is projected to have some hitter friendly weather, against Rich Hill. Five more teams exceed four and a half run team totals on a 14 game loaded pitching board.

The top three projected bats on the board and five of the top eight are Cardinals tonight. Ryan Feltner has a nearly league average strikeout rate (20.8%), 14.8 K-BB% and has only allowed 7.7% Barrels/BBE. However, 46.9% of his contact has had at least a 95 mph EV, which aligns his 5.75 ERA with a 5.60 xERA. All other estimators are more than a run lower (.331 BABIP, 67.0 LOB%, 16.3 HR/FB). Seven of his 10 barrels have left the yard, so it is a bit of an outlier to see his xERA so much higher than his FIP (4.52) in this situation. He really hasn’t been bad, but it’s Coors and the Cardinals are a good offense, so it is what it is. Paul Goldshmidt (166 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP this year), Tyler O’Neill (80 wRC+, .131 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (155 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the top projected bats on the board. RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against Feltner, but LHBs are even better (.396 wOBA, .383 xwOBA). Nolan Gorman (118 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (88 wRC+, .146 ISO) are top 10 projected bats as well.

Unfortunately, no other offense features multiple top 10 projected bats with the Cardinals dominating a large field. The Mets and Braves only place a single batter each on this list with Pete Alonso (162 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP this year) facing a lefty who has surrendered a .435 wOBA and .381 xwOBA to RHBs this year and Ronald Acuna (142 wRC+, .191 ISO) facing a slightly better one (.345 wOBA, .342 xwOBA), but under more hitter friendly conditions in a much more hitter friendly park.

The Mid-to-Low Range Arms to Pair with Top Pitchers + One Who Can Stand Alone

If you were to look at tonight’s board with a ton of $10K arms and believe it were loaded with pitching, you’d be correct. If you were to think that the pitchers worth considering stopped at $9K or $10K though, you’d be wrong because there are several mid-range arms with strong qualities as well. The top projected value for less than $10K on FanDuel is Carlos Carrasco ($9.4K). With just six runs allowed over his last 36 innings, his 3.82 ERA now more closely aligns with estimators ranging from a 3.45 FIP to a 4.02 xERA. The strikeout rate is a bit low for his usual standards (23.3%), but he still owns a more than respectable 17.0 K-BB% (and he’s the team’s fourth starter). He’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four. The weather isn’t expected to affect this pitcher friendly environment nearly as much as yesterday, while not only do the Reds have a 76 wRC+ (8.3 HR/FB) away from home and 85 wRC+ (24.2 K%) vs RHP, but each of Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas were either scratched or left the game early with injuries last night, though all three are projected to be back in there tonight. Carrasco is the fourth best projected DraftKings value for $1.2K less, but the top projected value in the $6K to $9K range.

Some of the additional arms projecting as top 10 FanDuel values are probably not guys you’re considering using on a single pitcher site, at least not tonight. Marcus Stroman would usually be fine with pitcher friendly conditions at Wrigley against the Nationals, but he can’t compete with the upside of the top of the board tonight. Braxton Garrett has shown some upside, striking out 37 of his last 93 batters with a 13.1 SwStr%, but all four of those starts were against either the Red or Pirates, while he has a much tougher matchup in a much tougher park in Philly tonight (113 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP). The Phillies are also the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (159 wRC+). Either are find in your SP2 spot on DraftKings for $7.5K or less.

Tommy Henry walked and struck out three Guardians each in his major league debut, but faces a much less disciplined lineup this time out. Fangraphs ranks the nearly 26 year-old pitcher the 20th best prospect in the Arizona system with a 40 Future Value grade. He produced a 12.3 K-BB% over 20 AAA starts this season. James Kaprielian has allowed 10 runs over his last 38.2 innings, despite just a 5.2 K-BB% over this span (.212 BABIP, 82.1 LOB%, 4.2 HR/FB). Just two of 10 barrels have left the park over this span and you can’t even blame Oakland because he’s only had two home starts. Kaprielian has struck out more than four in just one his last 13 starts, while a 4.81 xERA is his only estimator below five on the season, despite 9.5% Barrels/BBE. However, both project as top three values and potential SP2 punts in great matchups for less than $6K on DK tonight. Henry hosts the Pirates (82 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs LHP) and Kaprielian hosts the Angels (96 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP). Those are the two highest strikeout splits on the board.

Alex Cobb almost has his ERA below four. A 17.9 K-BB%, 62.2 GB%, 28.6 Z-O-Swing%, 3.6% Barrels/BBE and 34.5% mph EV suggest it should be somewhere around three. His worst estimator is a 3.16 DRA. However, a .324 BABIP and 60.6 LOB% have different ideas. Would you be shocked to find out there are another 10 unearned runs on top of the 40 earned ones as well? Twenty years ago, they would have thought he was having a bad season. Cobb is also pitching deeper into games after putting a couple of early season injuries behind him. He has Quality Starts in five of his last six. The Padres are better than their 99 wRC+ (22.0 K%, 9.5 HR/FB) vs RHP this year (though they’ve not been showing it), but Cobb may still be too cheap for $7K on DK ($1K more on FD).

Jose Urqudiy has a 23.5 K% over his last six starts, which includes at least eight strikeouts three times, but a total of eight in his other three combined. He has just a 19.0 K% on the season. With a below average strikeout rate and poor contact profile (90.2 mph EV, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), a 5.1 BB% is his lone positive attribute. Urquidy’s 3.62 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators (78.2 LOB%), but he does pitch in front of the top defense in the league (24 Runs Prevented). Urquidy likes to throw his four-seamer often (54.9%) and it’s his best pitch (-1.1 RV/100). The Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP) are also one of the worst offenses in the league against fastballs (-0.28 wFB/C). He, too, is a fine SP2 in the $7K range.

Lastly, we hate the matchup (Blue Jays 115 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP) and contact profile (11 home runs and 11.7% Barrels/BBE through 10 starts), but Kyle Bradish costs less than $6K in a now pitcher friendly park with a 22.8 K% and no barrels in two starts since returning. This may be another punt worthy SP2 if necessary.