DFS Alerts
Cleveland @ Minnesota full ORANGE in tonight's forecast
ORANGE is never a desirable color in Kevin’s forecast because there’s so much uncertainty and that happens to be the case in Minnesota tonight (vs Cleveland). With heavy rain potentially arriving mid-game, Carlos Carrasco is certainly a risk and with Kevin even mentioning the possibility of considering RED, hitters in this game appear to be at risk too. This is a problem from Cleveland side, as they are the fifth of five teams with an implied run of at least five runs tonight against Kyle Gibson. Players will have to assess the risk and adjust lineups accordingly. Cincinnati @ Chicago could be in line for a late start, but players are unlikely to be concerned about pitchers here (except for that those employing hitters might want to keep them in the game) and hitters appear to be safe. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and find updates from Kevin in the hour before first pitch in Expert Chat.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Expert Chat
Wilmer Flores scratched
Wilmer Flores has been scratched from the Mets lineup with a side issue. No word on who will replace him against Jaime Garcia yet.
As reported by: Kristie Ackert Jacob Faria has an elite 22.8% K-BB% versus RHB through 12 MLB starts
Jacob Faria has been showing signs of breaking out of his recent lull after a great start to his rookie campaign, despite allowing five earned runs against the Cleveland Indians his last time out, his highest mark of the season. The main reason for optimism is that his strikeout numbers have returned in a big way, punching out 24 batters in his last 16 innings pitched over the course of three starts. If Faria can harness some the control he exhibited earlier in the year, he’ll be well on his way to improving upon his 15.6% K-BB% down the final stretch. Faria will take the mound tonight against a Toronto Blue Jays squad that has the propensity to disappear on a night-to-night basis and are far from immune to allowing opposing pitchers quality outings. In fact, they are a team that ranks 23rd in wRC+ (91), 23rd in wOBA (.311), 17th in ISO (.169) with a middling 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, good enough for the 12th-best in the Majors. Though Faria has exhibited questionable control through 12 Major League starts (8.9% BB%), it was obvious that the youngster was going to hit some bumps in the road after hitting the ground running right out of the gate, but the lack of offensive consistency for Toronto makes it far more likely than not that Faria can manufacture a solid outing this evening. Additionally, Faria’s strikeout abilities have clearly carried over to the Majors fairly well, as he has maintained an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, even despite his recent lull, after recording a 34.7% strikeout rate in 11 starts at AAA this year. On top of that, Faria has notched a 27.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.4% walk rate to right-handed batters, which should help him tremendously in navigating this righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup. Although he is only striking out lefties at an 18.8% rate that is accompanied by a brutal 18.8% walk rate, he has managed to keep the ball on the ground against lefties 55.0% of the time and limit hard contact to just a 21.7% rate. Fortunately for us, he’ll also receive the added bonus of drawing a Blue Jays lineup with really just two left-handed hitters of note on Wednesday night. Still, given his inconsistent performances of late, Faria looks to be a much better tournament target than cash game option, though he still does possess enough upside to compete with the other high-priced arms for the top score on tonight’s slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Coors and Wrigley bats among top projected hitters tonight
Charlie Blackmon is, unsuprisingly, the top projected hitter on the slate, facing a RHP with a .349 wOBA against LHBs at Coors tonight. Nolan Arenado joins him in the top five according from the RotoGrinders Player Projections, though Mike Foltynewicz has handle RHBs better (.318 wRC+, 25.7 Hard% since last season). Freddie Freeman is the other top five projected Coors bat. LHBs have a .322 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% against Jon Gray since last season. This year, he has just an 8.0 SwStr% overall. Anthony Rizzo rounds out the top three against Homer Bailey (LHBs .385 wOBA, 37.4 Hard% since last season). Andrew Benintendi (LHBs .342 wOBA vs Lance Lynn since last year) and Joey Votto (LHBs .339 wOBA vs John Lackey) both find themselves a top five projected batter on at least one site tonight. Kris Bryant makes the Cubs the only other team besides the Rockies to have two batters in the top 10 among overall projections despite the Rangers being sandwiched in between the two teams in terms of implied runs tonight. Players looking for value can turn to Kike Hernandez on FanDuel (4.1 Pt/$/K) for just over the minimum. DraftKings players have more Carlos Beltran (2.36 Pt/$/K), Rougned Odor (2.27 Pt/$/K) and Kyle Schwarber (2.27 Pt/$/K) all in the middle of strong offenses for $3.6K or less.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto, Andrew Benintendi, Kris Bryant, Enrique Hernandez, Carlos Beltran, Kyle Schwarber Yu Darvish has struck out 20 of 47 batters since being traded to the Dodgers
Yu Darvish tops tonight’s board with a projection of 8.18 strikeouts by the Daily K Predictor. Carlos Carrasco (7.14) is the only other pitcher above seven. Darvish is also the top projected pitcher by the RotoGrinders Player Projections, again by a healthy margin over Carrasco. He’s struck out 20 of 47 batters he’s faced since being traded to the Dodgers and gets his first home start in a fantastic spot against the White Sox, who are likely worse than their overall numbers (87 wRC+ vs RHP) since the trade deadline and in a National League park, no less one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Carrasco is had the third best strikeout rate on the slate (27.2%), just 0.3 points off of Darvish’s lead. His 20.4 K-BB% is 12th best among qualified pitchers. The biggest concern for him is likely going to be rain, which has the potential to wipe this game off the daily fantasy map tonight (stay tuned for Kevin’s update later). Charlie Morton has a string of six straight starts without a hard hit rate above 20% (-20.2 Hard-Soft%) snapped in the Texas heat. His 25.4 K% is the best of his career (more than 20 innings), while he’s generating ground balls at an above average rate (51.1%) with just an 85.2 mph aEV (second best on the slate). It’s a great benefit getting the Diamondbacks outside of Arizona, where the offense plays down (81 wRC+ on the road), but you still get the strikeouts (24.2% on the road, 23.4% vs RHP, 30.1% over the last week). At $5.4K less than Darvish, he could be the top value on DraftKings. Marcus Stroman leads all qualified pitchers by more than five percentage points with his 62.8 GB%. While he’s not particularly strong with contact authority, resulting in a non-optimal BABIP above .300, he does miss bats at a league average rate too and is in the top strikeout spot on the board tonight in Tampa Bay (24.9 K% at home, 25.1 K% vs RHP). Jacob Faria is another name to consider for less than $9K on either site. Strikeouts are back up (34.3% over his last three starts), but so are walks (14.3% last three starts).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Charlie Morton, Jacob Faria Yoneis Cespedes has a 58% fly ball rate vs LHP this year, Mets 123 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers
Jaime Garcia has league average strikeout potential with a high ground ball rate (54.6% is fifth among qualifiers) and 7.0 Hard-Soft%. He also transitions to a highly negative run environment at Citi Field tonight. That’s the good news. His walk rate (9.2%) ties the highest of his career, including 10 of 78 batters since being traded from Atlanta. The Mets have a 17.7 K-BB% vs LHP, but a 23.8 HR/FB over the last week as their top RH bat is heating up. Yoenis Cespedes has a 210 wRC+ over the last week and a .284 ISO with a 58% fly ball rate against LHP this year. Jaime Garcia has kept RHBs grounded more often than LHBs since the start of last year (57% to 50.8%), though batters from either side have at least a 14 HR/FB and RHBs have a .336 wOBA with a 31.7 Hard%. Additionally, the Mets have the third best sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against ground ball pitchers (123). Michael Conforto leads the way with a 188 sOPS+ against ground ballers among Mets with more than 25 PAs. He’s also hit LHP very well this year (104 wRC+, .247 ISO). He and Cespedes are the expensive bats in this lineup. However, the rest of the lineup, including Wilmer Flores (111 wRC+, .264 ISO), Jose Reyes (109 wRC+, .189 ISO), Travis D’arnaud (149 wRC+, .250 ISO) have all hit LHP fairly well this season and cost much less. We can include Amed Rosario in that group with his 182 wRC+ over the last week too. D’arnaud has struggled against ground ball pitchers though (38 sOPS+), the only really below average hitter against them this season in tonight’s lineup, but his prowess against LHP and bump up the lineup could compensate for that for less than $3K on either site.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Jaime Garcia, Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores, Travis d'Arnaud, Amed Rosario Bailey not likely to be the only Homer at Wrigley tonight
Homer Bailey has gotten absolutely torched by batters from both sides since his return from a long absence last year. LHBs have a .383 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%, while RHBs have a .418 wOBA, though with just a 25.4 Hard%. He has a league average ground ball rate against batters from either side. Kevin says the wind is likely to be blowing in from right at around 10 mph with stronger gusts tonight, but Bailey may need something like a hurricane to hold the Cubs down. Chicago has an implied run line of 5.55 runs that is currently third best on the slate. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (304 wRC+ last seven days), Alex Avila, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber all have an ISO above .220 against RHP this season. This could get ugly. However, Mr. Bailey may not be the only Homer in the building tonight. Perhaps Mr. Lackey should adopt that first name because he’s allowed the third most Homers in the majors this year (29). While RHBs have just a .283 wOBA against him since last season (LHBs .339 wOBA), batters from either side have hit the ball hard on around one-third of batted balls with 30 of his 52 HRs being surrendered to RHBs over that span. The Reds have one of the lowest implied run lines on the slate (3.95), but could be a sneaky contrarian stack here. Joey Votto (171 wRC+ vs RHP), Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall all have an ISO above .235 against RHP this year, while Eugenio Suarez (114 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this year) adds a 254 wRC+ and 43.8 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Homer Bailey, John Lackey, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, Adam Dunn, Eugenio Suarez, Alex Avila Kris Bryant (304 wRC+) is the only batter on the late slate above a 300 wRC+ last seven days
Kris Bryant (304 wRC+, 25 Hard%, two HRs) is the hottest hitter on the main slate and the only one above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). Though he has homered twice, the prowess comes more because he’s rarely swinging and missing (7.1 K%, 5.2 SwStr%) rather than hitting the ball very hard. The wind is blowing in from right tonight, according to Kevin’s early forecast, but it may need to be a hurricane to keep players from piling on against Homer Bailey (RHBs .418 wOBA this year). Dexter Fowler (262 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) has hit a lot of balls hard this week, but homered just once in 24 PAs. He faces Eduardo Rodriguez (RHBs .304 wOBA since last season) at Fenway. Rafael Devers (260 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, three HRs) is on the other side of that matchup against Lance Lynn (LHBs .342 wOBA). He could be the top play among this entire group. Gary Sanchez (256 wRC+, 42.1 Hard%, four HRs) has homered twice in the last two nights and has perhaps the best matchup of the series tonight. RHBs have a .344 wOBA, though a 55.3 GB% against Robert Gsellman in his career. Eugenio Suarez (254 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%, two HRs) faces John Lackey. RHBs have just a .283 wOBA against him since last season, but with a 34.3 Hard% and he’s allowed the third most HRs in the majors this year (29). Edwin Encarnacion (212 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, five HRs) faces Kyle Gibson. RHBs have a 51.7 GB% against him since last season, but with a .347 wOBA and 33.8 Hard%. The Tribe and Twins may have to dodge significant weather issues to get this one in though.
Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Rafael Devers, Gary Sanchez, Eugenio Suarez, Edwin Encarnacion Rockies and Rangers both with an implied run total above six tonight
Five of 18 teams tonight have an implied run line above five runs with two (Colorado and Texas) above both above six runs. The Rangers are just a league average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+), but have the benefit of a highly positive run environment and a matchup with Anibal Sanchez. RHBs have a .385 wOBA, 37.4 Hard%, and 38 GB% against him since last season. Adrian Beltre (130 wRC+, .245 ISO), Elvis Andrus (119 wRC+, .180 ISO), Carlos Gomez (115 wRC+, .227 ISO), Mike Napoli (79 wRC+, .222 ISO), and Robinson Chirinos (104 wRC+, .308 ISO) have all shown power against RHP this year. Joey Gallo (129 wRC+, .371 ISO) should not be counted out either. LHBs have a .345 wOBA, but just a 29.3 Hard% against Sanchez since last season. The Rockies are the worst offense in the majors against RHP (78 wRC+) and Mike Foltynewicz has allowed RHBs just a .318 wOBA with a 25.7 Hard% (47.4 GB%). LHBs have a .349 wOBA, 33.5 Hard% and 31.4 GB% against him since last year. ALL the Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this year) obviously with some Gerardo Parra (110 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP this year), though the rest of the Rockies aren’t mandatory plays. Carlos Gonzalez (61 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP this year) is toast.
Other tagged players: Gerardo Parra, Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Foltynewicz, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Robinson Chirinos, Joey Gallo Rangers lead non-Coors teams in projected runs Wednesday (6.29)
Texas will square off against Anibal Sanchez tonight and Vegas is expecting plenty of offensive production. Their projected lineup has posted a .236 ISO against RHP this season with every player topping .163 and six guys over .221. Although Sanchez is exploitable from both sides of the plate, he has worse numbers against right-handers. Through 173 RHB faced, he’s been smashed for a .287 ISO, .409 wOBA, 42.6% Hard, 18.9% Soft%, and a 38.7% FB%.Our projections model provides Elvis Andrus (.180 ISO, .350 wOBA, 30.0% FB%, 29.5% Hard%) and Adrian Beltre (.245 ISO, .372 wOBA, 36.0% FB%, 37.2% Hard%) the top raw scores among the Rangers’ RHB, but someone like Robinson Chirinos (.308 ISO, .335 wOBA, 57.8% FB%, 36.5% Hard%) could be a sneaky GPP play considering his solid batted ball profile and low .178 BABIP. From the left side, our model favors Joey Gallo, who’s posted a .371 ISO, .371 wOBA, 59.2% FB%, and 45.4% Hard% against RHP this year, although Nomar Mazara (.195 ISO, .342 wOBA, 38.9% FB%, 33.3% Hard%) and Rougned Odor (.240 ISO, .308 wOBA, 44.9% FB%, 38.6% Hard%) look like great options as well. Sanchez has allowed a .240 ISO, .363 wOBA, 42.6% FB%, and 30.5% Hard% to 171 LHB this year. Be sure to check official lineups when they’re released.
Other tagged players: Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara
Jimmy Nelson leads Wednesday's early slate with a 26.9% K% this year
Despite being priced under Gerrit Cole by $1.9k on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel, Nelson projects as our top starting pitching this afternoon by a comfortable margin. Pittsburgh’s starting lineup has a combined .126 ISO – only one batter tops .156 – and .311 wOBA against RHP this season. As a result, they have the lowest project run total (4.03). Although this seems to be a safe matchup, the upside may be somewhat limited as the Pirates have a combined strikeout rate of just 16.8%. Plus, they’re rolling out six righty bats and Nelson’s k-rate dips to 22.5% against RHB. Even so, that rate would be good for second among all starters in the six early games (Nick Pivetta has a 22.9% K%) and the rest of his numbers against right-handers (306 TBF) are solid: .303 wOBA, 28.5% Soft%, 26.2% Hard%, 55.6% GB%, 25.0% FB%, .113 ISO. Cole may have a better strikeout matchup against Nelson’s Brewers as they have a pitcher-friendly 23.1% K%, but his strikeout rate is only 21.4% and Nelson’s 11.5% SwStr% is 2.8% higher than Cole’s. With the lack of pitching talent this afternoon, Nelson appears to be the top choice, despite the limited strikeout potential.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole Wednesday's early slate clear of weather concerns; CLE-MIN game (ORANGE) could be trouble tonight
Three of the six afternoon games will be played in a dome and the others aren’t at risk of delay or PPD. The most favorable hitting conditions will be at Nationals Park where it’s expected to be 86 degrees at fist pitch with plenty of humidity. This evening, we’re expecting a slow-moving storm to head towards Minneapolis and it could cause some problems for the Indians-Twins matchup. We’re currently considering it ORANGE but it may take a downgrade this afternoon; this game is risky. DET-TEX (GREEN/YELLOW) and ATL-COL (YELLOW) are the other two spots to monitor today, although both should be fine. Be sure to check back this afternoon for Roth’s updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Nick Pivetta allowing a .417 wOBA to RHB this season
The Phillies’ starter has faced 203 righties in 2017 and his numbers have been poor: 45.0% Hard%, 43.8% FB%, and .353 ISO. The right-handed pitcher has displayed some drastic reverse splits as his profile against LHB (182 TBF) looks much better: .308 wOBA, 30.8% Hard%, 39.3% FB%, .135 ISO. Currently, the Padres are projected to start five righty bats, four of whom have ISOs between .183 and .251 against RHP this year – Jose Pirela (.234 ISO, 35.0% FB%, 33.6% Hard%), Wil Myers (.218 ISO, 45.2% FB%, 37.1% Hard%), Hunter Renfroe (.183 ISO, 41.2% FB%, 33.5% Hard%), and Austin Hedges (.251 ISO, 47.6% FB%, 33.6% Hard%). San Diego’s projected run total is fifth on the early slate (4.79), which may drive down the ownership of the Padres’ righties, making them appealing tournament options. Be sure to check official lineups when they’re released.
Other tagged players: Austin Hedges, Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Pivetta Significant run line movement for both teams at Coors tonight
The Colorado Rockies were already the top projected offense by Vegas when the afternoon began, but they’ve also now made the biggest upward jump over the course of the day, from 6.22 runs now up to 6.61 (+0.39 runs), while the Braves have made a corresponding drop from 5.28 implied runs to 4.89 currently (-0.39 runs). Might the return of Nolan Arenado to the Colorado lineup be responsible for part of that? The Chicago Cubs are another big mover, up from 4.5 to 4.8 runs, while the Reds have dropped from 3.7 to 3.5 implied runs in that game. Kevin’s evening forecast has the wind blowing in at 10 to 15 mph from center. The St Louis Cardinals are the other significant mover on the slate, going in the wrong direction against Rick Porcello in Boston (4.61 to 4.23 runs). Players can find implied run lines and movement for all teams throughout the day on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Rick Porcello Orlando Arcia scratched Tuesday; Eric Sogard will now bat 8th and play SS
Arcia has been scratched from Tuesday’s lineup due to back spasms, and it’s unclear at this point if it’s anything that’ll keep him out of the lineup in the days to come. Sogard and Jonathan Villar will likely pick up the slack at shortstop until Arcia is able to return.
As reported by: @Brewers Other tagged players: Eric Sogard