DFS Alerts

DET-NYY game will be delayed Wednesday

There isn’t a tarp on the field, but they’ve delayed the game due to “impending weather.” A new start time hasn’t been made available yet.

UPDATE: Game will start at approximately 2:30pm EST.

DET-NYY (YELLOW/ORANGE) and TOR-CWS (YELLOW) games carry some weather risk Wednesday afternoon

Both matchups will have to deal with pop-ups today. Precipitation is expected to begin west of Yankee stadium around first pitch and move in while the game is underway. There’s a solid chance of an in-game delay and low risk of a PPD. In Chicago, the coverage is lower which means we shouldn’t be at risk for a PPD, but there’s certainly a chance for a delay. Later tonight, there are several games that will also be dealing with pop-ups, but there’s nothing too crazy with the riskiest games currently considered YELLOW (CLE-BOS and NYM-COL). It’s definitely worth checking out our weather page though, as there’s a long list of matchups to monitor throughout the day. Be sure to check back for our afternoon update and follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinRothWX.

Two of six teams on Wednesday's early slate have projected run totals over 6.0

The Blue Jays (6.24; -200) and the Yankees (6.03; -212) are big favorites Wednesday with the White Sox (4.26; 185) a distant third in projected runs. Toronto will square off against Derek Holland, who tops the early slate with a 5.2 SIERA through 106.1 IP this season. The hurler has given up a 37.7% Hard%, 40.4% FB%, and an 82.2% Contact% while his SwStr% is just 7.5%. He’s posted some drastic splits in 2017 – it’s best to attack him with righty bats. Fortunately, Toronto is currently projected to start eight RHB this afternoon, which accounts for their high implied total. Holland, through 381 RHB faced, has allowed a .400 wOBA, .272 ISO, 40.5% Hard%, and 44.0% FB% while limiting Soft% to just 16.0%. Clearly, it’s a good spot for all righty bats on the Blue Jays’ squad, but guys like Josh Donaldson (41.2% Hard%, 41.2% FB%, .205 ISO, .345 wOBA vs LHP this season), Justin Smoak (42.5% Hard%, 39.7% FB%, .277 ISO, .475 wOBA), Steve Pearce (34.1% Hard%, 40.9% FB%, .241 ISO, .331 wOBA), and Kevin Pillar (39.8% FB%, .235 ISO, .389 wOBA) stick out with their propensity to hit the ball hard and in the air. Kendrys Morales has posted an impressive 7.1% Soft% and 41.4% Hard, although his 28.6% FB% is much lower than some of his teammates. Still, he’s posted a .231 ISO and .399 against lefties this season and his expected FB% is much higher than normal in this matchup. Jose Bautista’s struggles against lefties this season have been well-documented – he has a .109 ISO and .260 wOBA, which is his lowest ISO since his second season (11 AB) and his worst wOBA since his rookie campaign – but he maintains a 46.9% FB% and even though his Hard% is just 26.6., his Soft is a low 12.5% and he has a .226 BABIP. It’s a good spot for him to turn it around. Jordan Zimmerman, who faces the Yanks today, has also demonstrated some splits, but he has poor numbers against each side of the plate. Against RHB, he’s allowed a .362 wOBA, .234 ISO, 36.8% Hard%, and 41.5% FB% while he’s been even worse against LHB with a .378 wOBA, .231 ISO, 41.8% Hard%, 42.2% FB%. Lefties Brett Gardner (35.6% Hard%, 37.7% FB%, .227 ISO, .371 wOBA) and Didi Gregorius (25.4% Hard%, 40.5% FB%, .246 ISO, .321 wOBA) are appealing options. On the right side of the plate, we have Aaron Judge (46.2% Hard%, 39.0% FB%, .332 ISO, .435 wOBA) – who naturally leads our projections model this afternoon – Gary Sanchez (36.2% Hard%, 31.3% FB%, .211 ISO, .355 wOBA), and Matt Holliday (30.5% Hard%, 39.1% FB%, .217 ISO, .322 wOBA). All in all, the Yankees and Blue Jays own nine of the top ten spots in our projections Wednesday afternoon.

Johnathan Lucroy scratched Tuesday; Ryan Hanigan replaces and will bat eighth

Lucroy has officially been scratched from the Colorado Rockies lineup for tonight’s game against the New York Mets due to a reported stomach illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ryan Hanigan, who will take over the catching duties and bat eighth. Since Hanigan is slotting directly into Lucroy’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the Rockies previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.

Steve Souza scratched Tuesday; Peter Bourjos will man CF with Smith shifting to LF

Bourjos will slot into the 7th spot in the order, with Miller and Hechavarria moving up one spot. This makes Mike Fiers a more viable GPP play, although with the dearth of pitching options available, he’s still not high up on the list of options.

Mariners and Pirates offer some affordable LH bats in great spots tonight

While pricing generally tightens up as the season wears on and players will be hard pressed to find the kind of cheap or even minimally priced value that was often available in April and May, there should be a wider search for low cost bats with both Max Scherzer and Chris Sale on the mound. Occasionally, you’ll have to go against other top pitchers in order to find them, but it can often be worth it when these hitters don’t have to do much to pay off. Despite a matchup with Chris Archer, Derek Fisher is likely under-valued on either site ($3.3K DK/$2.5K FD). He leads off for Houston and may be able to take advantage of Archer’s tendency for hard contact (though mostly on the ground) with a 204 wRC+, .313 ISO and 53.9 Hard% vs RHP so far. Eric Sogard is not what he appeared to be earlier in the season, but he still costs less than $3K in the leadoff spot for the Brewers and Carlos Martinez has been vulnerable to LHBs (.332 wOBA since last season). Jarrod Dyson has no such illusions of facing a quality arm. In fact, he’s in Texas against Nick Martinez (LHBs .401 wOBA since last season), where his 101 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP this year is fine for $3.4K on DK ($1K less on DraftKings) batting second for the Mariners. Teammate Ben Gamel is only $500 more on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot. Adam Frazier costs $2.7K at the top of the lineup against Homer Bailey (LHBs .380 wOBA since returning from injury). Teammate John Jaso bats lower in the order, but costs even less ($2.6K or less on either site).

Several games with rain potential, but nothing particularly threatening

Kevin’s evening forecast bring us several YELLOW/GREEN combinations with only two straight YELLOWs for a potential late start in Baltimore (vs Kansas City) and then San Diego (vs Minnesota) of all places. Considering the late start, that’s really the only spot players will want to keep a close eye one if considering one of the pitchers from that game. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.

Coors bats and Mariners expected to be very popular tonight.

Coors bats are expected to dominate ownership on FanDuel tonight where they may be more affordable and players only have to select one pitcher. DraftKings may have a few more Seattle bats with more than 10% ownership. The middle of the lineup is affordable ($4K or less) in a prime spot in Texas against Nick Martinez. With all of the attention on those spots, Washington RHBs are looking to potentially be surprisingly scarce against a pitcher allowing a .376 against righties through four starts. Max Scherzer is expected to be a bit more popular than Chris Sale tonight. There are numerous strong options on this slate, including guys like Carlos Carrasco and Jameson Taillon, projected to be in only around 5% of lineups. Projected ownership rates are continuously updated throughout the day and are available to premium players on the Projected Ownership page.

Jose Berrios continues to dominate RHB with a 25.0% K% and 18.0% HH%

As a former highly-touted prospect coming up through the Minnesota Twins minor league system, Jose Berrios seems to have figured it out at the Major League level and appears to have officially “arrived” as a front-end of the rotation starting pitcher, despite a recent rough patch allowing at least four runs in five of his last six starts outings. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 78:25 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.1% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last season. Berrios has been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 25.0% hard hit rate on the year, and though that mark may be somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a few percentage points over time. Clearly, Berrios is a great young pitcher with strikeout potential (25.0% K% vs RHB) who has found decent control at the big league level. Tonight, he’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a susceptible, righty-heavy San Diego Padres offense that ranks 25th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, in addition to striking out at a 25.4% clip, good for the highest whiff rate in the Majors. So despite roughly league average power (.170 ISO), the Padres are nothing more than a subpar big league offense at this point in the season. On a slate with a plethora of high-priced, high-strikeout arms, Berrios looks to be the perfect SP2 pairing in tournaments on DraftKings, though it is still tough to make a viable case for fading the top starting pitchers on one-pitcher sites like FanDuel.

LHBs have a .387 wOBA, 35.5 Hard% vs Mike Pelfrey since 2016, but Blue Jays don't have many

Daily fantasy players know what to do whenever Mike Pelfrey takes the mound. Stack up LH bats from the opposing team (.387 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 43.5 GB% since last since). RHBs are a bit more complicated because although they have a .330 wOBA against Big Pelf since last year, it comes with a 59.1 GB% and 25.9 Hard%. The issue is that the Blue Jays only have two competent LHBs and it’s even worse for daily fantasy players because they both play First Base. Justin Smoak (140 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top overall bat in the lineup. Kendrys Morales (85 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this year) is the salary savor on FanDuel ($2.8K). Considering what to do with the rest of the Toronto lineup, a stack encompassing any of the first seven batters in the order (Jose Baustisa through Ryan Goins) may be viable here, but you’re looking for them to keep turning the wheel and scoring runs rather than expecting the RH batters to go deep. The Blue Jays do have the highest implied run line outside of Coors tonight (5.69) and most of their RHBs are either strong against same handed pitching, affordable, or both.

Anthony Rendon has a 221 wRC+, .375 ISO vs LHP; RHBs have a .376 wOBA, 38.1 Hard% vs O'Grady

Chris O’Grady has a 3.68 ERA with 22.3 K% through four starts, but that may be a bit of a fluke with just a 6.2 SwStr%, 12.8 BB% and 88.9 mph aEV. He has a ground ball rate below 30% against batters from either side, but has legitimately stifled LH contact (.219 wOBA, 22.2 Hard%). RHBs, however, have smashed him (.376 wOBA, 38.1 Hard%). The way players can take advantage of this may be with a Washington stack that omits LHBs. Does anyone ever omit Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, who hit LHBs well, from Washington stacks? Anthony Rendon, who has smoked LHP this year (221 wRC+, .375 ISO) and Ryan Zimmerman (149 wRC+, .325 ISO vs LHP this year) are core bats with Wilmer Difo (135 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP) and Howie Kendrick (148 wRC+, .146 ISO) providing lower cost support (at least on FanDuel) at the top of the lineup. The Nationals have a current run projection of 4.8 runs according to the Vegas Odds page.

Aaron Judge mashes fly ball pitchers (165 sOPS+) and RHPs (162 wRC+); RHBs .378 wOBA vs Sanchez since last year

Anibal Sanchez has allowed a .378 wOBA and 37.7 Hard% to RHBs since last year with just a 38 GB%. This is a good reason why Aaron Judge (162 wRC+, .311 ISO career vs RHP) is one of only two non-Coors batters among the top five overall projected batters by the RotoGrinders Player Projections on either site tonight. To make matters even worse for the Tigers, Judge has a 165 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) with 17 HRs against fly ball pitchers this year in 198 PAs. Gary Sanchez (163 sOPS+) is one of three additional Yankees with exactly 11 HRs against fly ballers. The others are Brett Gardner (140 sOPS+) and Matt Holliday (139 sOPS+). Sanchez adds a career 148 wRC+ and .268 ISO vs RHP in his career, while Clint Frazier should also be included in any Yankee stacks for a lineup with a 5.65 implied run line. He has a 115 wRC+, .266 ISO and 51.1 Hard% against RHP in 64 PAs.

Chris Archer and hard ground balls

Chris Archer struck out at least eight in every July outing with a 33.1 K% that is fourth on tonight’s board. His 21.9 K-BB% is seventh on the season among all qualified pitchers. Contact management has not been a strength this year. While he’s allowed fewer HRs than last year (15 in 142 IP vs 30 in 201.1 IP last year), his 41.4 GB% and 38.1 Hard% are career worsts. An 88.8 mph aEV and 38.9 95+ mph EV are both bottom five marks on tonight’s, but he’s magically been able to turn that into 5.1% Barrels/BBE despite the increase in hard contact and fly balls overall. His .330 BABIP is only backed by a 22.2 LD%, so where is all this hard contact coming from and how might it be affecting his BABIP? His 86 mph aEV on ground balls is behind only four qualifiers, while his 92.5 mph aEV on flies and liners is much closer to the middle of the board. That doesn’t really explain the 38.9% 95+ mph EV, but all of those hard ground balls might explain the BABIP and low barrels rate. Whether or not this is a sustainable skill might be debatable and might shape how you feel about him going forward in terms of regression. Tonight, he faces a very difficult Houston team, which will severely cut into his strikeout rate (17.3% vs RHP, 16.6% at home), but they’ve been around a league average offense without two top bats over the last week (106 wRC+, 9.9 HR/FB). This matchup is probably a bit more pitcher friendly than the overall numbers suggest even if it’s still not ideal and it’s likely one of the few times you’ll see Archer for less than $10K on both sites.

Max Scherzer and Chris Sale are top projected pitchers on a star studded slate

Max Scherzer (9.01) is one of three pitchers the Daily K Predictor projects for 8+ tonight. Chris Sale (8.44) and Chris Archer (8.32) are the other two on an amazingly deep pitching board. RotoGrinders Player Projections also have Scherzer just ahead of Sale, well ahead of the pack tonight. Separated by just a couple of hundred fantasy dollars on either site, their lines read incredibly similar this year, right down to the Statcast batted ball data. The separator may be that Scherzer appears to have the superior matchup in Miami (88 wRC+ at home, 97 wRC+ vs RHP), while Sale welcomes Cleveland (100 wRC+ on the road, 106 wRC+ vs LHP) to Fenway. Overall, nine pitchers on this slate have a 25+ K% over the last month. Three of them are Jimmy Nelson, Mike Fiers and Patrick Corbin. Players could close their eyes and point to a name with a 50/50 chance of selecting a strong pitching option. Aaron Nola may fly under the radar on this slate, but is a superior play with a 24.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts, in which he’s gone at least seven innings five times. Jeff Samardzija has a third best 23.0 K-BB% on the season among qualifiers and is in a high strikeout spot in Oakland. Carlos Martinez and Jon Lester are also facing offenses that strike out a quarter of the time, while Archer is facing a Houston lineup minus two of their top bats. This slate also has Carlos Carrasco (27.4 K%) facing a below average Boston lineup and Jameson Taillon featuring a 22 K% and 51.6 GB% at home against Cincinnati for no more than $8K. While there are clearly superior pitching choices in Scherzer and Sale, who many may gravitate towards, there are plenty of strong options at more affordable prices at well. Aside from those two, only Marcus Stroman reaches $10K on DraftKings otherwise.

Both pitchers at Coors tonight had a ground ball rate below 40% with an enormous ERA in July

Twelve of 30 teams are projected by Vegas for 4.75 runs or more on a full slate with such exceptional pitching that all of the other 18 teams are at 4.35 runs or fewer with a 0.4 run gap in the middle. The offense should be highlighted by a Coors matchup featuring Steven Matz (9.30 ERA, 39.2 GB%, 35 Hard% in July) facing Jeff Hoffman (8.00 ERA, 0.8 K-BB%, 38.3 GB% in July), where all that air contact is not going to be pitcher friendly. The Rockies have a slate high 6.53 implied run line and always seem to be over-valued at home, where the Mets are probably the superior offense, with a second best 5.97 run line. While Matz doesn’t have much of a wOBA split (seven points since last season), RHBs have hit the ball much harder (34.2 Hard% to 21.5% for LHBs since last season) with a 20 point difference in ground ball rate too. Nolan Arrrenado (146 wRC+, .303 ISO vs LHP since last season) is the top bat on the slate, while D.J. LeMahieu (139 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP since last season) profiles extremely strongly as well with Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .322 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Charlie Blackmon (121 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP since last season) a bit behind. Jeff Hoffman has exhibited an interesting career platoon split as well. LHBs have a .311 wOBA and 33.9 Hard%, but RHBs have a .375 wOBA and 32.1 Hard%. He has a ground ball rate just a bit below league average either way. Michael Conforto (138 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Jay Bruce (127 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Yoenis Cespedes (119 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are the top bats with Asdrubal Cabrera (108 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Curtis Granderson (117 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2016) profiling strongly as well. Super prospect Amed Rosario (not available on FanDuel) is expected to make his debut tonight. He may be a bigger defensive upgrade for the team than an offensive one immediately and is more of a contact and speed bat (51.7 GB%, 15.8 K%, 19 SBs at AAA) than a power one right now (still plenty useful here with a reasonable lineup slot).