DFS Alerts
Toronto run line increases, several other high ones decline.
Run lines for several teams have dropped since earlier this afternoon. Where as many as 10 teams previously had a run line above 4.9 runs a few hours ago, currently only eight remain above that point right now. Cleveland has seen the biggest drop (5.38 to 5.06), but Boston (5.12 to 4.94), Kansas City (5.06 to 4.81) and Baltimore (4.94 to 4.69) have also seen significant declines too among that group. These appear to be whole game total drops as Cleveland is at Boston, while Kansas City is at Baltimore tonight. The biggest riser was already the too projected offense on the slate as Toronto has moved from 5.89 implied runs up to 6.07.
No weather concerns at all on Monday night
In Kevin’s shortest report of the season, he gives us the all clear without a single significant game of note. The RotoGrinders Weather page still has expected conditions, including temperature, wind (speed and direction) and humidity for all outdoor games tonight. Players may want to note that temperatures and humidity in Texas are a bit more reasonable tonight than they’ve been over the last week. Don’t forget to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) in case circumstances unexpectedly change.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Luis Severino expected to be most popular on DK, but Charlie Morton could compete for top spot on FD
Toronto Blue Jays are expected to have overwhelming support on a slate where they are now the only offense projected for more than six runs currently (6.07) against James Shields. There are certainly lots of viable alternatives with 10 of 16 teams carrying an implied run line higher than 4.7 runs, but it’s very difficult to lay off Shields, especially when so many Toronto bats are so affordable. Cleveland (vs Doug Fister) and Kansas City (vs Ubaldo Jimenez) LH bats may have more modest ownership numbers with nearly equal expectations. Even Oakland currently has an implied run line above five runs against Matt Cain. On the mound, Luis Severino is the clear chalk on DraftKings where both Charlie Morton and Gio Gonzalez are above $10K as well. Morton costs $1.3K less than Severino on FanDuel though, in a high strikeout spot, and challenge for the top ownership spot. Wavering from those two is risky tonight, but Mike Clevinger has the top SwStr rate on the board (13.4%) and faces a slumping Boston offense (67 wRC+ last seven days). He’s currently expected to be in less than 5% of lineups on FanDuel. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Mike Clevinger Yankees have the second lowest sOPS+ (76) against ground ball pitchers
Players looking beyond the likely chalk pitchers tonight and perhaps considering the other side of the matchup at Yankee Stadium can’t take too much comfort in Michael Fulmer’s 13.1 K% over the last month, but his SwStr rate has been above 11% in each of his last two starts while he’s gone at least in four of his last six starts. Additionally, half of his contact has been on the ground this season with a board low 28% 95+ mph EV. The batted ball profile is significant in this matchup because the Yankees appear not to like ground ball pitchers. According to Baseball-Reference, their 76 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers is second worst in the majors. In fact, only Clint Frazier (249 sOPS+) in a small sample size and Aaron Judge (163 sOPS+) are above a 100 sOPS+ or .770 OPS overall against ground ballers with Judge and Matt Holliday tied for the team lead with just three HRs against ground ballers.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday Nationals and Blue Jays each own a pair of top bats according to RotoGrinders Player Projections
While Bryce Harper is the top projected batter on the slate against Jose Urena (LHBs .334 wOBA since last year) according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, two of the top five are Toronto Blue Jays (Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista) facing James Shields, while Harper is joined by teammate Daniel Murphy in that group. Toronto also adds Josh Donaldson to be the only offense with three hitters in the top 10. Notably absent from the top projected batters on FanDuel are any Cleveland Indian bats, especially left-handed ones, who have a .405 wOBA against Doug Fister since last season. Bautista doubles as a top projected value on either site (2.4 Pt/$/K DraftKings, 3.73 Pt/$/K FanDuel). Kendrys Morales and Russell Martin both join him as potentially top FanDuel values (2.76 Pt/$/K each). It’s safe to say that Blue Jays are going to be pretty popular against James Shields.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin Paul Blackburn is now the confirmed replacement for Sonny Gray
Paul Blackburn is now the confirmed replacement for Sonny Gray. Although he has just a 1.6 K-BB%, his 54.5 GB% and 6.0 Hard-Soft% have kept him out of trouble in a pitcher’s park. He’s actually been more effective in muting LH contact (22.2 Hard%, 57.4 GB%) than same handed batters (27.7 Hard%, 51.1 GB%). However, the Giants do gain some value in being priced down in expectation of facing a better overall pitcher.
As reported by: Susan Slusser Other tagged players: Sonny Gray Luis Severino has at least seven IP in 12 of 20 starts, eighth in K-BB (21.8%) and GB rate (51.8%)
Charlie Morton has the top strikeout projection on the Daily K Predictor tonight (7.08), while Luis Severino is second (6.22) with no other pitcher above six. Severino is easily the overall favorite of the RotoGrinders Player Projections though, ahead of Gio Gonzalez and Morton. He has gone seven innings in four straight and now in 12 of 20 starts this year with a 21.8 K-BB% that’s eighth in baseball along with a 51.8 GB% that’s also eighth among qualifiers. Tonight, Severino is facing a Detroit lineup lacking two of their best bats this year, recently moved in trades, and they still have just a 92 wRC+ on the road and 96 wRC+ vs RHP. Charlie Morton has been inconsistent in run prevention, which could be an issue against a high power offense (Rays 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP), but he’s kept half of his contact on the ground and has a 26.1 K% in a high upside strikeout upside spot (Rays 25.1 K% vs RHP). A $10.6K DraftKings price tag is a new level for him. While Gonzalez should be fine in Miami (89 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ vs LHP), they do have a team 142 wRC+ over the last week and his 2.81 ERA comes with estimators above four due to a .251 BABIP and 84.5 LOB%. He costs $11.2K on FanDuel. With Sonny Gray off the board now, Mike Clevinger may be the next strongest pitcher. His 13.4 SwStr% is tops on the board and his 27.2 K% is second. While Boston has an 88 wRC+ at home and against RHP with very little power (9.0 HR/FB at home), they don’t strike out a lot. However, the confirmed lineup does not have a single batter other than the recent arrival Rafael Devers with a wOBA above .340 or ISO above .200 vs RHP this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Charlie Morton, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Clevinger Sonny Gray (trade) scratched Monday; Paul Blackburn expected to start in his place
Gray has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the San Francisco Giants following his trade to the New York Yankees. In his place, Paul Blackburn is expected to receive the starting nod and would obviously be a clear downgrade in terms of pitching ability from Gray. Meaning, Giants hitters should provide tremendous value at their depressed price tags on Monday’s slate.
As reported by: Jane Lee Other tagged players: Paul Blackburn
Robinson Cano has three HRs (34 PAs) and a 94.7 mph aEV (20 BBEs) against Cole Hamels
Not that there’s a lot of value to it without a single HR, but it’s rare that we see BvP matchup with more than 100 PAs of data, such as today’s between Elvis Andrus and Felix Hernandez. While Andrus has just four doubles in 109 PAs, he has struck out just 15 times. In that Statcast era, he has 79.9 mph aEV on 18 BBEs. Only Robinson Cano has more Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher. In 20 against Cole Hamels, he has a 94.7 mph aEV with three HRs in 34 PAs for his career. Jose Bautista has a slate leading five HRs against James Shields in 36 PAs. Unfortunately, those matchups all took place prior to the Statcast era, but it’s not as if Shields has gotten better. Among others with at least 10 BBEs against tonight’s pitcher, Adrian Beltre has 97 mph aEV on his last 14 BBEs against Felix Hernandez, but with just a double and a homer in 60 PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Felix Hernandez, Jose Bautista, James Shields Ryan Zimmerman has the third best wRC+ (244) & Hard% (58.8) on the slate over last seven days
No single player on the slate tonight has a wRC+ above .300 over the last week. In fact, the hottest bat on the slate (10 PA min.) belongs to Jose Altuve (256 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, no HRs). While RHBs have just .304 wOBA against Alex Cobb since last year, that comes with a 36.1 Hard%. Altuve is a high cost, nearly matchup proof bat at this point. Looking for something cheaper leads you to Guillermo Heredia (255 wRC+, 30.8 Hard%, one HR) who should be in the lineup, perhaps even at the top, in Texas against Cole Hamels (RHBs .315 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% since last season). Ryan Zimmerman (244 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs) also has one of the top hard contact rates on the slate over the last week. Jose Urena has allowed a 39.1 Hard% in the month of July. Mike Zunino (168 wRC+, 60 Hard%, two HRs) and Chase Headley (142 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) are the only two batters on the slate with a higher hard contact rate than Zimmerman. While Zunino has never had issues hitting the ball hard, Headley has never been a big exit velocity guy (87.6 mph this year).
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Guillermo Heredia, Mike Zunino, Chase Headley No shortage of attackable pitchers with 10 of 16 teams above 4.9 implied runs
Ten teams are projected for 4.9 runs or higher on just an eight game slate tonight with only four teams below 4.5 runs. There is certainly no shortage of pitchers to attack tonight, namely James Shields against whom both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .360 since last season. RHBs additionally enjoy a hard hit rate of 39% (10 points higher than LHBs). Batters from either side also have a wOBA above .350 against Matt Cain since last year, who pitches in Oakland tonight. Other pitchers can be attacked hard by batters from one side of the plate or another. LHBs have a .405 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% with just 37.9% ground balls against Doug Fister since last season, which puts most of the Cleveland lineup in high regard tonight. LHBs also have .393 wOBA (32.7 Hard%) against Ubaldo Jimenez, giving a more balanced Kansas City lineup a few very interesting bats. While Charlie Morton has an uncharacteristic reverse split this year, RHBs have a 55.6 GB% to go along with their .347 wOBA against him, though the other side of that matchup gives us Alex Cobb and his .333 wOBA against LHBs with a 35.2 Hard%. Great timing considering that the Astros have recently lose two of their top RH bats to injury. While those splits answer one question in the Cleveland lineup, which is Carlos Santana (134 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) over Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) at First Base in stacks tonight (Santana also has a 231 wRC+ over the last seven days), Justin Smoak (139 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) gives him some competition for the top bat at the position and perhaps overall tonight. As for the value play bat tonight (pitching is more expensive than expected), that may be Derek Fisher (160 wRC, .222 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP), hopefully at the top of the Houston lineup.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Derek Fisher, Edwin Encarnacion, James Shields, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Doug Fister, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb Melky Cabrera scratched Sunday, Leury Garcia will replace and bat leadoff
Cabrera has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for today’s game against the Cleveland Indians following his trade to the Kansas City Royals. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Leury Garcia, who will take over the outfield duties and bat leadoff. Since Garcia is slotting directly in Cabrera’s spot in the batting order, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Chicago White Sox Other tagged players: Leury Garcia Mark Trumbo scratched Sunday; Craig Gentry replaces and will bat ninth
Trumbo has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for today’s game against the Texas Rangers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Craig Gentry, who will take over the outfield duties and bat ninth. This lineup change will bump Trey Mancini up to the cleanup spot in the order, Welington Castillo up to sixth, and Joey Rickard up to seventh from his original position in the nine-hole. However, the remainder of the Orioles previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Jon Meoli Other tagged players: Craig Gentry Lance McCullers has fallen victim to an insane .436 BABIP and 54.4% LOB% in five starts since being activated from disabled list
Lance McCullers has experienced some unexpected difficulty in recent outings since being activated from the disabled list, allowing three earned runs or more in all but one start and failing to pitch past the fifth inning each time out. This afternoon, he’ll take on a Detroit Tigers squad that ranks 20th in wOBA (.316), and even 26th in ISO (.155) versus right-handed pitching and they also offer some appeal in the strikeout department, ranking middle of the pack in the Majors with a 21.8% strikeout rate. Despite recent struggles, McCullers has maintained his elite strikeout ability this season, evidenced by a 26.8% strikeout rate to hitters from both sides of the plate that is supported by a fantastic 12.3% swinging strike rate, just slightly lower than his 13.0% mark from the 2016 season. Additionally, this particular matchup with Detroit is a great one for McCullers, as the Tigers are rolling out just two left-handed hitters today, and his ground ball ability is much more effective versus right-handed batters (65.5% GB%), though still solid to lefties (60.3%). He has also notched an elite a 25.0% hard-hit rate overall, which sets up perfectly alongside his ground ball skills against this occasionally susceptible Tigers lineup. Another key development in McCullers repertoire is that he has managed to maintain a walk rate (7.5%) significantly below his career 9.2% rate, which essentially increases his ceiling and enables him to pitch deeper into contests. With that said, it’s pretty easy to make a viable argument for paying up for McCullers on a slate lacking other elite starting pitching options, even with his downward trend in his last four outings, given the strong likelihood of McCullers finishes the day as the highest scoring pitcher in daily fantasy formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Clarifying Rockies starters for Sunday, Kyle Freeland starts Game 1 and Jon Gray will start Game 2
There were some initial conflicting reports on the order of the Colorado Rockies starters for today’s day-night doubleheader against the Washington Nationals, but Kyle Freeland will, in fact, draw the start in Game 1, pushing Jon Gray back to the Game 2 starter. Both have a particularly tough matchup so Gray shouldn’t have been on too many players radar for Sunday’s main slate, but be sure to remove him from any and all lineups if that was the case.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Starting Lineups Page Other tagged players: Jon Gray