DFS Alerts
Affordable Baltimore bats currently projected to be just as popular as top offenses tonight
Max Scherzer is expected to be the most popular pitcher on tonight’s slate, followed fairly closely by James Paxton in a matchup with high strikeout potential against Oakland (25.7 K% vs LHP) probably for players who are looking to pay up for Coors tonight. Interesting arms at low projected ownership include Zack Greinke, Dan Straily, Jacob deGrom and Drew Pomeranz. Affordable Baltimore bats in Minnesota are currently expected to be about as popular as Colorado and New York (AL) bats. However, no single batter projects for over-whelming ownership tonight, perhaps due to the high cost of pitching. Projected ownership numbers are continuously updated for all players are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, James Paxton, Zack Greinke, Dan Straily, Jacob deGrom, Drew Pomeranz
Top three GB pitchers on tonight's slate face top seven offenses against GB pitchers
Aaron Sanchez (54.2 GB% last two calendar years), Carlos Martinez (54%) and Charlie Morton (54.1%) are the top three ground ball pitchers on tonight’s slate. All three are facing top seven offenses against ground ball pitchers this season in Houston (153 sOPS+ = 1st), Toronto (118 sOPS+ = 4th) and New York (NL) (116 sOPS+ = 7th). Martinez and Morton have had long standing platoon issues, struggling greatly against LHBs. This is more a problem for Martinez, who faces six from the left side, while Morton has just four lefty Blue Jays to worry about and two at the bottom of the order. Morton and Sanchez have also both been on the DL since late May. The thing to do here might be to avoid the three pitchers, while bats like Justin Smoak (133 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP this year) and Curtis Granderson (198 wRC+, 60 Hard% last seven days) may still have some merit. Houston could be more interesting. Each of their first five batters in the lineup have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week, but are fairly expensive against a pitcher with a .269 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Aaron Sanchez, Charlie Morton Usual DFS hitter targets Dickey, Nolasco and Gausman pitching well recently
Kevin Gausman, Ricky Nolasco and R.A. Dickey are pitchers daily fantasy players normally feel comfortable picking on, but the three have allowed a combined two runs over each of their last two outings. While using any of the three in your lineup still seems risky, should players now consider avoiding attacking them? Dickey is the easiest to consider. He throws knuckleballs. There are very few adjustments possible, yet he’s allowed a total of two ERs over his last three starts with a 24 K% and 11.6 SwStr% over the last month. The last team to bomb him was Washington (8 ERs, 3 HRs), whom he’s facing tonight. Weather and BvP data may be better indicators of his success. There’s a little bit of a breeze and late game rain potential in Washington, which shouldn’t affect the knuckler too much. In tonight’s lineup, only Ryan Zimmermann has homered against Dickey. He’s done so twice with a 95.4 mph aEV (four BBEs) in the Statcast era. Ricky Nolasco has shut down the Dodgers (on the road) and Mariners at home, both very negative run environments. He’s struck out 12 with just two walks and no runs, though he only really managed contact well against Seattle. Texas is a different kind of park, expected to be hot and humid. The Texas bats are a favorite in today’s Trendspotting article today. Kevin Gausman may be a different story. He has struck out 22 of his last 70 batters and has not allowed a run in his last two starts. He’s stopped throwing his slider and started throwing more splitters. A prominent reverse platoon for his career, RHBs have just a .131 wOBA over his last three starts (27.5 K-BB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%). Curiously, Brooks Baseball has his velocity up a bit in his last start, while Fangraphs does not. Gausman might be the one of these three with some reason to reconsider offensive exposure against tonight.
Other tagged players: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Gausman Four offenses (Rockies, White Sox, Nationals, Diamondacks) dominate Player Projections tonight
There’s a familiar and expected cast of characters leading the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, led by Nolan Arenado at home against Derek Holland, followed by Aaron Judge, also with a team implied run line above six. Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, and Jose Abreu (at Coors) round out the top five, all in favorable spots. The top 10 rounds out with three more Coors bats (Charlie Blackmon, Mark Reynolds, Todd Frazier) then another from Arizona (Jake Lamb) and Washington (Daniel Murphy). Many players are likely paying up for pitching though, and will be looking for more value from their bats. On FanDuel, Jesus Aguilar ($2.1K) projects for 4.18 Pt/$/K at Yankee Stadium against Jordan Montgomery, who has been a bit more generous with the long ball recently, while David Peralta projects for both a high point total and a lot of value (4.02 Pt/$/K) against Tim Adleman. Mitch Moreland (2.6 Pt/$/K) projects for the most value on DraftKings. Though Jake Odorizzi has a reverse platoon split for his career, Moreland leads the Red Sox with a .219 ISO vs RHP this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Jose Abreu, Jesus Aguilar, David Peralta, Mitch Moreland Several pitchers projected for seven strikeouts or more via the Daily K Predictor
Predictably, Max Scherzer has the top projected strikeout total (8.88) on the Daily K Predictor tonight. He’s more than a strikeout ahead of Jacob deGrom (7.47), Drew Pomeranz (7.18), Carlos Carrasco (7.0) and Jordan Montgomery (6.94), who are all at least reasonable options on tonight’s slate. Notably absent from the top five, but second behind Scherzer among overall point projections (RotoGrinders Player Projections) is Zack Greinke, hosting the Reds. It’s a deep pitching slate with James Paxton perhaps having the top matchup hosting Oakland (79 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs LHP). Pomeranz (27.0%) and Montgomery (26.1%) are also facing offenses with high strikeout rates vs LHP. Scherzer has struck out just 13 Braves in two starts, but has faced just 46 batters in two starts, good for a 28.2 K%. Just one all season has he gone fewer than six innings and has not struck out fewer than six in a start this season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Drew Pomeranz, Carlos Carrasco, Jordan Montgomery, Zack Greinke, James Paxton Joey Votto has seven extra-base hits in 34 PAs against Zack Greinke
Among batters with at least nine BBEs against tonight’s pitcher, Dustin Pedroia has both the most BBEs (16) and highest aEV (92.8 mph) with two HRs (28 PAs), though none of that seems all too exciting. Joey Votto has homered a slate high three times against Zack Greinke with seven extra-base hits in 34 PAs. He has just an 82.8 mph aEV on four BBEs in the Statcast era, but the interesting thing here is Votto is not a massive exit velocity guy. He has 32 Barrels this year, which is seventh best in baseball, but only 34.8% of his contact has been above 95 mph. No other players with at least 30 Barrels is below 42%. He has struck out just twice against Greinke and seems to see him well in a very run friendly park. J.D. Martinez has two HRs (two doubles) in 20 PAs with a 97.7 mph aEV (seven BBEs) against Carlos Carrasco. Miguel Sano has homered twice in eight PAs with a 97.7 mph aEV against Kevin Gausman and Brian McCann has two HRs in 10 PAs (97.1 mph aEV) against Aaron Sanchez as well.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Dustin Pedroia, JD Martinez, Miguel Sano, Brian McCann Jose Ramirez has a 169 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this year and 298 wRC+ over the last week
Kurt Suzuki (356 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) is the hottest batter in the majors over the last week (10 PA min.) While the three HRs are impressive because he hasn’t reached double digits in a season since 2011, good luck with Max Scherzer, assuming he even makes the lineup, though if hMad Max does have one weakness it’s the long ball. Jose Ramirez (298 wRC+, 36 Hard%, four HRs) has been torching RHP this season (169 wRC+, .302 ISO) and faces Jordan Zimmermann (LHBs .337 wOBA, 35.9 Hard% since last season). Logan Forsythe (289 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, one HR, 16.7 BB%) has stopped swinging at anything out of the strike zone. He’s faced several LHPs recently, but gets Jason Hammel. RHBs have just a .307 wOBA, 30.8 Hard% against him since last season. Logan Morrison (282 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) has hit LHP well this seaon (123 wRC+, .222 ISO) and LHBs have been about average agaisnt Drew Pomeranz since last season (.314 wOBA, 33.1 Hard%). This would surely be a contrarian play with some potential. Scooter Gennett (281 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, two HRs) hit cleanup a few days ago and Zack Greinke has been prone to hard contact at home this year (41.4%) and against LHBs (37.4%). Eric Thames (275 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, three HRs) has also hit same handed pitching well this year (107 wRC+, .303 ISO). Jordan Montgomery has held LHBs to just a .286 wOBA and 20 Hard% though.
Other tagged players: Kurt Suzuki, Logan Forsythe, Logan Morrison, Scooter Gennett, Eric Thames White Sox have just a 5.06 implied run line (eighth tonight) at Coors
With 13 games on the night slate, 11 teams have an implied run line above 4.8 runs, including three above 5.8 runs with the Yankees and Rockies tied at the top (6.4 implied runs). The White Sox have just an 87 wRC+ against RHP, but their 5.06 implied run line is still a bit of a surprise in Colorado. German Marquez has just an 11.8 K-BB% (average) with an 89.4 mph aEV (third highest on today’s board). While LHBs have a higher wOBA against him (.357 career), RHBs (.336 wOBA) have actually hit him harder (36.6% to 33.3%) with a much lower GB rate against RHBs as well (39.3%). White Sox batters from either side look very strong here. In fact, seven of the projected starting nine on the lineups page have at least a 91 wRC+ against RHP this year with Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson about a .200 ISO. Unfortunately, do to position restrictions, players may only choose two of the three. Frazier and Melky Cabrera have a 200+ wRC+ over the last week. If at the top of the lineup, stackers can even throw in Adam Engel for salary relief.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Melky Cabrera, Adam Engel Braves-Nats to be delayed due to rain on Thursday
This type of delay may be bad news for those hoping to target this game, as there is still a fair amount of precipitation expected later on in the night. This game is certainly not for the risk averse, but there is definitely some tournament appeal in attacking a dangerous Nats lineup that could go under-owned.
As reported by: Jorge Castillo
Dodgers and Indians supply cheap platoon advantage bats for those paying up for pitching
Players looking to pay up for Chris Sale are going to need to save a lot of money elsewhere and that may start behind the plate where Austin Barnes ($2.6K FD, $3.8K DK) may be the top catcher on the board tonight with Evan Gattis out, regardless of cost. Jason Kipnis ($3.5K DK, $2.8K FD) has really been struggling (75 wRC+ vs RHP), but leads off from the offense with the top implied run line tonight against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a wOBA above .400. Kyle Seager costs $2.5K on FanDuel against Paul Blackburn. In the outfield, Abraham Almonte may be a pure punt player lower in that Cleveland order, but does cost the minimum on FanDuel, while Max Kepler costs $2.7K and has a 229 wRC+ over the last week. Kike Hernandez has three HRs and a 96.5 mph aEV against Robbie Ray. He costs $2.3K on FanDuel and only $1K more on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Jason Kipnis, Abraham Almonte, Kyle Seager Kevin has slightly lowered risk in Washington; tune into 6:30 ET Grinders Live for an update
Risk has been slightly lowered in Washington, but an in-game delay is still certainly possible. Tune into tonight’s 6:30 ET GrindersLive to hear Kevin’s take on the game live!
As reported by: RotoGrinders Live Pirates-Phillies to be delayed due to rain
Tonight’s Phillies/Pirates tilt will not start on time, as rain is approaching the Philadelphia area and the tarp has already been rolled out. This game locks at 6:05 ET, so it’s unlikely we’ll get an official start time by then. This game isn’t included on either FanDuel or DraftKings’ main slate.
As reported by: @Phillies Chris Sale, Houston and Minnesota bats expected to be most popular
Projected ownership trends on a seven game slate have several Houston bats in the top 10, but George Springer and Jose Altuve expected to be the most popular. Several Minnesota bats, including Miguel Sano, may be popular as well. Dodger bats could be an interesting contrarian stack with none projected higher than 10% on either site, facing a pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate, but also severe control and hard contact issues. Chris Sale is expected to be the over-whelming favorite on the mound tonight, no surprise with his strikeout potential against the Rays. This means that there are several high upside arms like Lance McCullers, who adds great contact management, and Rich Hill, who may have the top matchup (Arizona 70 wRC+ vs LHP), who may go under-owned. Projected ownership rates are available for all players to premium subscribers on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Miguel Sano, Lance McCullers, Rich Hill Games in Philadelphia and Washington with substantial risk in Kevin's evening weather update
Pittsburgh Philadelphia is not on the main slate, but all day players still may have the opportunity to late swap and Kevin does see some PPD potential there with a bit of uncertainty. The same goes for Atlanta Washington tonight. Both games are graded ORANGE and pitchers are a concern at the very least. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Using PlateIQ to break down Cleveland hitters against changeups (LHBs .273 ISO vs Lamet's)
Dinelson Lamet has a 30% strikeout rate rate, but great problems with batters who have hit the ball (88.8 mph aEV, 15.1% Barrels/BBE). LHBs have hit him particularly well (.422 wOBA, 39.6 Hard%. The fastball (47% usage vs LHBs, .556 ISO) and changeup (18% usage vs LHBs, .273 ISO) seem to be the culprits. The slider (27% usage, .100 ISO) has actually been a quality pitch against opposite handed batters. While we immediately want to gravitate towards Cleveland LHBs who hit RHBs well (basically all of them), players can then use PlateIQ in an attempt to filter further. Lamet has an interesting heat map against LHBs because while he throws most of his pitches either down or away against them, the low AND away box is his least populated part of the strike zone (3.6%). It makes it more difficult to square up great matchups for Cleveland with this part of the tool alone, but counting the last two seasons Abraham Almonte has the fewest hot zones among Lamet’s most populated regions, not really a surprise. While most Cleveland LHBs in the confirmed lineup have been around average against fastballs, Michael Brantley looks to have the most difficulty with changeups, though he also has one of the smaller sample sizes considering his recent injury history. Jose Ramirez appears to have the most success against the pitch, although Lindor, Almonte, and Zimmer have hit the change well too. The key takeaway may be that Jose Ramirez (165 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP this year) needs to be a part of any stack against Lamet, while Bradley Zimmer (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP) may be the sneaky salary saver closer to the bottom of the lineup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Lindor, Abraham Almonte