DFS Alerts
Jose Berrios continues to dominate RHB with a 29.4% K% and 18.8% HH%
As a former highly-touted prospect coming up through the Minnesota Twins minor league system, Jose Berrios seems to have figured it out at the Major League level and appears to have officially “arrived” as a front-end of the rotation starting pitcher, despite a recent rough patch allowing at least four earned runs in each of his last two outings. Since being called up from AAA in mid-May, he has a more than respectable 65:19 K: BB ratio and has seen his walk rate drop to 7.2% from the astronomical 12.5% walk rate he allowed in 14 starts last season. Berrios has been incredible at limiting hard contact thus far, coming into tonight’s start with a 25.9% hard hit rate on the year, and though that mark is likely somewhat fluky due to sample size, his hard contact rate would still be below league average even if it was to increase a few percentage points over time. Clearly, Berrios is a great young pitcher with high strikeout potential who has found his control at the big league level. Tonight, he’ll receive the added benefit of facing off with a righty-heavy Baltimore Orioles offense that is without their biggest power threat from the left side, Chris Davis, ranks 20th in wRC+, 20th in wOBA, and 13th in ISO versus right-handed pitching, in addition to striking out at a 23.0% clip and drawing the second fewest number of walks in the Majors (6.5% BB%). So despite roughly league average power, the Orioles are nothing more than a subpar big league offense essentially halfway through the season. Outside of maybe Chris Sale (ok, definitely), Berrios looks to have a clear advantage in terms of upside over other top-tier starting pitchers, making him a great option in cash games and tournaments alike across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Houston bats dominate overall and value projections tonight
George Springer is the top projected batter tonight, atop the RotoGrinders Player Projection board. In fact, three of the top four are Astros (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) with Bryce Harper (facing Mike Foltynewicz if weather cooperates) breaking up the Houston party in the second spot. RHBs have a .370 wOBA against Francisco Liriano this year. Paul Goldschmidt rounds out the top five, but he’s be a risky pay up against a lefty who seems to have found his curveball again (Rich Hill). Houston appears to dominate the value projections as well with Carlos Beltran (2.4 Pt/$/K) looking strong on DraftKings, along with Springer (2.2 Pt/$/K), while Evan Gattis has the top value projection on FanDuel (4.04 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Beltran
Tim Beckham scratched, replaced by Taylor Featherston
Tim Beckham has been scratched and will be replaced straight up by Taylor Featherston, who bats sixth.
As reported by: Neil Solondz Other tagged players: Taylor Featherston The Daily K Predictor has Chris Sale at 11.02 Ks tonight
Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in the league (35.5 K%, 16.0 SwStr%, 2.6 ERA & SIERA). He tops the board with an absurd 11.02 strikeout projection from the Daily K Predictor tonight against the Rays (26.5 K% vs LHP) and leads all other pitchers by a mile in terms of overall projection tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections). There’s no question he’s the top pitcher on the slate. The question is if he’s the best per dollar (value). Lance McCullers may be the second best pitcher in the AL this year (though Corey Kluber has a claim in as well). He has a 22.0 K-BB% (seventh) and 63.9 GB% (first). He’s the only qualified pitcher who can claim elite marks in both categories. The Daily K Predictor has him second (7.53), far behind Sale, but McCullers can claim elite contact management as well (85.3 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 27.6% 95+ mph EV). While the Rays strike out a lot, the Blue Jays may be the better matchup from a run prevention standpoint. Over the last week, they have a 44 team wRC+, 17.6 K-BB%, 4.4 HR/FB, and 3.4 Hard-Soft%. McCullers costs over $2K less than Sale on either site. There are several other high upside arms with a few dangerous flaws on this slate as well. Dinelson Lamet and Robbie Ray both have a strikeout rate above 30%, but also an 88+ mph aEV. Lamet has allowed barrels on 15.1% of BBEs and Ray has allowed 42.7% of BBEs above 95 mph off the bat. Jacob Faria has a 23.6 K-BB% through five major league starts. He’s facing a low strikeout offense (the Red Sox) with a 150 team wRC+ over the last week. It may be difficult getting him a W against Sale as well tonight. Rich Hill might be the other interesting arm. He seems to have found his curveball again and has struck out 26 of his last 76 batters, going seven innings in each of his last two starts. He’s managed contact well all season (83.1 mph aEV, 24.1% 95+ mph EV, -1.4 Hard-Soft%) and may have the top matchup on the board against the Diamondbacks (70 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs LHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Lance McCullers, Robbie Ray, Dinelson Lamet, Jacob Faria, Rich Hill Dodgers have strong numbers against Robbie Ray (Kike Hernandez three HRs)
Dodgers’ RHBs have some strong career numbers against Robbie Ray. Enrique/Kike Hernandez is averaging more than one HR per first name against Ray. He has three in 21 PAs with two more extra-base hits and a 96.5 mph aEV on 13 BBEs. Looking at all batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher, two other Dodgers are the only batters with an aEV above 90 mph. Yasiel Puig has a 94 mph aEV on 13 BBEs with a HR in 24 PAs against Ray, while Justin Turner has a 92.3 mph aEV on 10 BBEs with two doubles in 20 PAs. Ray has been struggling recently with at least four walks in four straight starts and has always had contact issues.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner, Robbie Ray Pair of RH Astros and Dodgers among hottest bats over the last week.
Carlos Correa (364 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%, three HRs) and Yulieski Gurriel (343 wRC+, 68.8 Hard%, two HRs) are the hottest batters on the slate (10 PA min.) and facing a pitcher (Francisco Liriano) allowing RHBs a .370 wOBA this season. The issue with Correa right now is health, while Gurriel may mean passing up on a better Houston 1B option (Marwin Gonzalez), on FanDuel at least. No other batter on the slate has a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. Andrew Benintendi is next best (289 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, two HRs). He’s in a tough spot facing Jacob Faria. LHBs have just a .222 wOBA against him so far. A pair of Dodgers round out our list. Justin Turner (282 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, three HRs) and Logan Forsythe (281 wRC+, 26.7 Hard%, 15 BB%) might be more interesting than they’d normally be against Robbie Ray. While he continues to allow hard contact much too often (88.4 mph aEV, 42.7% 95+ mph aEV), he has also walked 17 of his last 110 batters.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Yulieski Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Andrew Benintendi Despite Dinelson Lamet having the third-lowest SIERA on the night slate (3.22), the Indians are the biggest favorites on the board (-185)
Lamet enters tonight’s matchup with Cleveland with an excellent 32.1% K% and 13.9% SwStr%, second only to Chris Sale in both categories on Thursday’s main slate. However, his strikeout rate drops to 25.7% against LHB and Cleveland is projected to start six batters that will hit from the left side. Overall, their projected lineup has a combined .199 ISO and .345 wOBA against RHP this year. It’s setting up to be a tough matchup as only one of these lefty bats has a strikeout rate above 19.0% – and three of them are at 14.0% or under – which hinders Lamet’s primary strength. When batters make contact against him, it’s the type we want to target; he has a 39.6% Hard% and 50.9% FB% after facing 79 LHB this year. Plus, he’s allowed a .422 wOBA and .369 ISO in split. All of this makes guys like Kipnis (47.6% FB%, 30.4% Hard%, .161 ISO, .289 wOBA vs. RHP this year), Lindor (44.4% FB%, 29.9% Hard%, .212 ISO, .422 wOBA), Ramirez (41.7% FB%, 35.2% Hard%, .293 ISO, .422 wOBA), Chisenhall (49.1% FB%, 33.0% Hard%, .281 ISO, .376 wOBA), Brantley (26.7% FB%, 42.0% Hard%, .156 ISO, .364 wOBA), and Zimmer (25.8% FB%, 34.2% Hard%, .188 ISO, .357 wOBA ) appealing tonight, and the difference between Lamet’s SIERA and the Indians’ implied total (5.25) makes more sense. Be sure to check out official lineups when they’re released.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer, Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall
RHBs have a .370 wOBA, 4.3 K-BB% and 35.5 Hard% against Francisco Liriano this year
A seven game night slate is very well spread out with five teams above a five run implied run line and five below four with all but two teams between 3.75 and 5.28. The biggest surprise might be the team Josh Tomlin faces with an implied run line one quarter of a run less than the team Lance McCullers faces. With no team above 5.3 runs, there isn’t an immediately obvious stack, which should help diversify ownership. At exactly five runs against Francisco Liriano, the core three Houston bats look great tonight, assuming Correa’s presence in the lineup. The difference between Liriano’s K-BB% from LHBs to RHBs is 22.9 points (4.3%, .370 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%). George Springer (207 wRC+, .397 ISO), Jose Altuve (147 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Carlos Correa (164 wRC+, .200 ISO) have all pummeled LHP this year and each has at least a 171 wRC+ over the week. Marwin Gonzalez (138 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP this year) and Evan Gattis (95 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP this year) are great stacking compliments, especially if Correa is unavailable.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis, Francisco Liriano Zach Davies has allowed a .234 ISO to LHB this season
Davies will face a Cubs lineup with a combined .198 ISO against RHP this year. Three of the batters that will attack from the left side of the plate have ISOs of .204 or better against righties – Rizzo (.204), Happ (.310), and Schwarber (.228). Rizzo and Happ both have solid wOBAs of .362 and .378, respectively, while Schwarber has posted a .303. He’ll make his return from AAA this afternoon, where he had a.343 average and hit four dingers. He has a 27.5% K% against RHP this year, but Davies isn’t a big strikeout threat (14.8% against LHB this year), which makes this an appealing matchup for the slugger. Happ also has a high K-rate of 30.8%, so this is good news for him as well, while Rizzo strikes out just 12.5% of the time. Davies has some notable handedness splits – 36.6% Hard% against LHB vs. 29.3% against RHB; .374 vs. .343 wOBA;.234 vs. .162 ISO – but someone like Kris Bryant is still interesting with his .226 ISO and .366 wOBA against RHP this year. Vegas has given the Cubs 5.34 projected runs today.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant Johnny Cueto (ear) scratched Thursday; Christopher Stratton will start in his place
Cueto is dealing with an ear infection and won’t be able to toe the rubber on Thursday. Christopher Stratton will make his first career start in his absence. This makes the Tigers a more appealing team to target on the early slate. Stratton has only tossed 13.1 innings in the bigs, dating back to last season, so we don’t have a huge sample, but he’s inexperienced at this level and he’s posted a 5.18 SIERA so far in his career.
As reported by: Henry Schulman Other tagged players: Chris Stratton Michael Wacha leads early slate with a 22.7% K% this season
It’s an ugly slate of pitchers this afternoon, which is highlighted by six of eight teams currently sitting with projected run totals above 5. Wacha tops our projections model despite his mediocre strikeout rate, 9.7% SwStr%, and 4.21 SIERA. Vegas has provided Miami the lowest implied total on the board (4.09) and without Stanton in the lineup, their starters have combined for a .149 ISO and .341 wOBA this season while their strikeout rate is a solid 18.1%. Johnny Cueto, who’s checks in as our SP3, has a more favorable strikeout matchup with the Tigers (22.4%), but they have a .174 ISO and Vegas has given them a 5.34 projected run total. Despite a cheaper price, Mike Montgomery is our SP2 this afternoon. He’ll square off against a Thames-less Milwaukee squad that has a combined 22.2% k% this season against LHP and a 4.15 implied total. Although their ISO is a solid .175, they have a high 50.2% GB% according to PlateIQ. These three appear to be the top options on a tough pitching slate. Anibal Sanchez could also be an interesting option if looking to differentiate in tournaments – the Giants have a combined ISO of .137, .314 wOBA, and 18.2% K%. It’s not a tremendous strikeout spot as Sanchez has a 20.6% K% and 9.1% SwStr% this year, but none of the matchups on the early slate are great in that regard. He’s definitely a risky bet though, even against a weak lineup, as he’s posted a 37.9% FB% according to PlateIQ and he’s allowed a 37.9% Hard% this year. Sanchez is a better deal on DK, where he comes in second in points-per-dollars.
Other tagged players: Johnny Cueto, Mike Montgomery No weather concerns for Thursday's early MLB slate; ATL-WASH game (ORANGE) could be trouble tonight
We start off Thursday with a four-game afternoon slate that will feature clear skies and warm weather – all of the matchups will be at least 84 degrees at first pitch and the Reds-Rockies meeting is expected to reach 95. Later on, we’re anticipating inclement weather in Philadelphia and Washington. The Pirates-Phillies matchup isn’t on the main slate, but keep an eye on it if playing the all day slate. A flash flood watch has been issued in D.C until 7 pm and Kevin is expecting storms around first pitch. Other than that, the forecast looks clear for the night’s games. Be sure to check out our weather page for complete details and follow Kevin @KevinRothWx on Twitter.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Start of Wednesday's BOS-TEX game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay has the potential to be a lengthy one. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/ORANGE due to the potential of stationary pop-up showers. Pitchers a risky proposition in this contest but hitters should remain fine as the chance of postponement should be low.
As reported by: Pete Abraham Kevin has upped the risk in Washington to ORG-YLW, but still believes the game is more likely than not to play
We’ve already gotten word of a late start here, which could be good in terms of the game playing through once we get rolling. This game locks at 7:08 PM ET, so it’s looking unlikely that we’ll get word of an official start time before then.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Cheap RHBs are available in the San Francisco lineup against hard contact prone lefty
Players looking to save salary have a couple of options tonight. One is for those who are willing to punt SS, which looks fairly weak tonight. Tzu-Wei Lin (171 wRC+, 43.8 Hard% last seven days) costs the minimum on FD ($3K on DK) and faces a pitcher who has been beaten soundly by LHBs (.361 wOBA since last season) in a great park in Texas. Bradley Zimmer ($2.6K FD, $3.4K DK) has a 133 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP and leads off against Luis Perdomo tonight (LHBs .371 wOBA career). Jae-gyun Hwang (150 wRC+, 30 Hard%) moves up in the lineup to face a LHP who has allowed a lot of hard contact (38.4% to RHBs since last year) in Detroit for $2.6K or less on either site. Austin Slater has a lesser lineup spot, but comes in at the same cost in that game. Gorkys Hernandez leads off for just a bit more. David Freese is $3K or less on either site against Ben Lively.
Other tagged players: Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, David Freese, Bradley Zimmer, Tzu-Wei Lin