DFS Alerts
Detroit has just a 92 sOPS+ (25th) against fly ball pitcher, but with a few potent bats
There are four fly ball pitchers (GB rate below 40% over the both last two calendar years and this year) facing a bottom eight offense via sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this season. While San Francisco is not a surprise (78 sOPS+ = 28th), they do get a significant park upgrade facing Jared Eickhoff (6.5 SwStr% in May) in Philadelphia. Jake Odorizzi has an ERA more than a run below his estimators due to a .223 BABIP and 86.6 LOB%, but may get a small bump in Seattle with the Mariners 94 sOPS+ (23rd) against fly ball pitchers. Odorizzi is striking out batters at a league average rate this year. The other two may be more interesting because they are both pitchers that players will likely be targeting tonight. Atlanta has just an 81 sOPS+ against RHP, but that’s not a surprise and Bronson Arroyo’s HR tendencies are still much too strong to ignore. The last one is Detroit. With such a strong tendency to elevate low pitches (league high 123 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers), they actually struggle when met with a pitcher who generates fly balls on his own, running just a 92 sOPS+ (25th) with a .409 SLG. Nick Castellanos (32 sOPS+) is the biggest offender. Most other active Detroit batters tonight are closer to average. In fact, J.D. Martinez (125 sOPS+) and Miguel Cabrera (130 sOPS+) have both done well against fly ball pitchers, so don’t let this team-wide stat dissuade confidence in them. Unfortunately, the one bat who has excelled against fly ball pitchers (Alex Avila 203 sOPS+) is on the bench tonight against a LHP, but John Hicks (182 sOPS+ with two HRs in 21 PAs) has had some small sample success and may be an interesting, very low cost Catcher.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: JD Martinez, John Hicks, Nick Castellanos, Derek Holland, Jake Odorizzi, Bronson Arroyo, Jerad Eickhoff
Andrew Benintendi doubles as a top projected overall hitter and value play against Alec Asher
They did not do much of anything as a top projected offense against Wade Miley last night, but that wasn’t Andrew Benintendi’s fault, as he didn’t play. Tonight, against RHP Alec Asher, he doubles as a top four bat both by overall projections and potential value on either site according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. LHBs have a 33.7 Hard% against Asher since last season, but just a .289 wOBA in just 121 opportunities. Miguel Cabrera is the only other batter who doubles as a top overall bat and potential value on DraftKings tonight. Nolan Arenado is the overall favorite of the projections tonight. Transitioning to a much more difficult park (Petco), his 135 wRC+ and .300 ISO still stand out against LHP since last season. Clayton Richard has kept RHBs on the ground 56.4% of the time since last season, but Arenado’s 50.6 FB% could counter that. Kole Calhoun projects as the top value on DraftKings (2.74 Pt/$/K) by a decent margin for just $2.6K against Kyle Gibson, while Matt Adams (against Bronson Arroyo) combines with Benintendi as the only two bats projected for more than 4.0 Pt/$/K on FanDuel. Clayton Kershaw is the top overall projected pitcher with Stephen Strasburg not far behind. Michael Pineda may be a top value on FanDuel for just $8.5K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Matt Adams, Kole Calhoun, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Pineda, Nolan Arenado Davis, Trumbo and Jones all have great numbers against Porcello
Chris Davis (92.2 mph aEV, 12 BBEs), Mark Trumbo (104.8 mph aEV, 7 BBEs) and Adam Jones (92.7 mph aEV, 18 BBEs) have all homered three times against Rick Porcello in addition to high end exit velocity. Although Manny Machado adds just one HR, it comes with a 95.1 mph aEV on 14 BBEs. However, all four have struck out in more than 20% of their PAs against Porcello as well. In his lone start against Baltimore this season, Porcello went six innings with seven strikeouts and just one HR with a 25 Hard%, only one of three times his hard hit rate has been below 40% over his last 10 starts. The Orioles have under-whelmed this season (92 wRC+ at home, 94 wRC+ vs RHP) despite breaking out each of the last two nights. Exposure to either side of this matchup would be acceptable as it looks like a boom or bust situation. There may plenty of hard contact and strikeouts here. Jose Bautista (93.7 mph aEV, 5 BBEs) also has three HRs against Michael Pineda, while Miguel Cabrera’s three HRs against Derek Holland are out-dated enough where Statcast has not recorded a BBE in the matchup.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Jose Bautista, Michael Pineda, Miguel Cabrera, Derek Holland Stephen Strasburg has struck out 26 of last 56 batters, A's have 37.7 K% over the last week
Clayton Kershaw tops the Daily K Predictor today with a projection of 9.66 strikeouts against the Brewers (25.4 K%) and is the top overall pitcher via RotoGrinders Player Projections, but is not too far ahead of Stephen Strasburg (8.45 Ks). A 23.1 K-BB% and 24.8 Soft% with at least seven innings in eight of 11 starts is All-Star quality stuff, but not the standard for Kershaw. He allowed three HRs for the second time this season in his last start and the Brewers do have some power (18.6 HR/FB at home). Strasburg has struck out 26 of his last 56 batters and faces and now has at least eight in six of 10 starts. He’s facing an Oakland team that has struck out in 37.7% of PAs over the last week! Dallas Keuchel would be a quality third option even in Texas with a 23.9 K% against an offense with a 25.4 K% against LHP. The park might scare players, but ground balls can’t leave the park no matter where you play and he’s put up a 67.6 GB% with a -8.3 Hard-Soft%. An ominous weather forecast is the biggest concern in this game. Michael Pineda has a 22.5 K-BB% and an ERA matching his estimators in the low three range. His HR rate is once again through the roof (22 HR/FB), but the ground ball rate is up to 50.9% with a hard hit rate below 30%. A healthy Toronto is one of the hottest offenses in the league (16.5 K%, 21.4 HR/FB over the last week), but that doesn’t really justify a cost below $9K for Pineda.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda Chase Utley has a the fourth highest wRC+ (282) in baseball over the last week
Gerardo Parra is the hottest hitter in the majors with a 374 wRC+ and 42.9 Hard% over the last week. Although just one HR, no other batter comes close by wRC+ (10 PA min.). Of course, Coors caveats apply and he transitions to Petco tonight where he may not even be in the lineup against a pitcher who has generated an 80.6 GB% against LHBs since last season. The only other hitters with a wRC+ above .300 is probably not going to be in the lineup tonight either against a RHP (Austin Barnes). The third hottest hitter in the league, George Springer (296 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 4 HRs) might have some merit, even in Texas against an inconsistent Yu Darvish tonight, if it weren’t for Kevin’s dismal forecast for this game. Chase Utley (282 wRC+, 35.3 Hard%, 2 HRs) is probably the best play of the bunch tonight in Milwaukee against Jimmy Nelson. Nelson has improved to a 20.7 K-BB% against LHBs this season, but still allows hard contact on 37.5% of batted balls. Whit Merrifield (279 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, 1 HR) has decreased numbers against RHP. Two of the three players following him are the Shortstops in that game in Texas with Darvish facing Keuchel with a terrible forecast.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Austin Barnes, Gerardo Parra, Whit Merrifield Bronson Arroyo has allowed 18 HRs already this season
Three offenses are projected for five runs or more tonight without a game at Coors with one of them being the team Bronson Arroyo pitches for, but not the one the pitcher who has allowed 18 HRs is pitching against. That’s because Arroyo is facing the Braves without Freddie Freeman. It still says quite a bit that Atlanta has an implied run line of 4.85 runs, fourth on the slate. Due to a park that favors power hitting, ideally, you’re looking for bats with some power as Arroyo shows few biases how he allows his HRs (10 to LHBs, 8 to RHBs). Matt Kemp has a 113 wRC+ and .222 ISO vs RHP since last season, Matt Adams a 107 wRC+ and .215 ISO and is very affordable on either site. The other place to look might be Tyler Flowers (129 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since last season). He doesn’t have a lot of power, but it’s enough for a low priced catcher in this spot against a bomb dispenser like Arroyo. No other Brave has an ISO above .140 against RHP since last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Bronson Arroyo, Tyler Flowers All Brewers priced below normal minimum priced on FanDuel against Kershaw
Minimum price is usually $2K on either site. Tonight, Nick Franklin is the highest priced Brewer at $2K. Every other Milwaukee bat costs less than $2K on FanDuel. The reason for that is that they’re facing Clayton Kershaw, so the suggestion is not to immediately go out and stack Brewers, especially because he’s likely the pitcher that saving all that salary would allow you to afford. However, he has been a bit more vulnerable this season. His strikeout and swinging strike rates are down five and three points. Those are still quality numbers that gets him to 26.5% and 12.2%, but their clearly below his normal standard. In addition, he also allowed three HRs for the second time this year in his last outing. Perhaps players may want to choose someone like Domingo Santana (127 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP since last season) for $1.8K, who has homered twice in the last week, which would save some cap space for bats if paying up for Stephen Strasburg, who has struck out 26 batters over his last two starts and is facing an offense with a 37.7 K% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg No weather issues for tonight's games
Kevin gives daily fantasy baseball players the all clear on a four game slate. Players can still see temperature and wind conditions for tonight’s game on our Weather page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Blue Jays power bats in prime position to tee off against CC Sabathia
CC Sabathia is currently in an impressive three-start stretch where he’s allowed two earned runs or less in each outing while recording a quality start in two of them. However, if we take a deeper look, Sabathia faced the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Kansas City Royals in his last three starts. These teams currently rank 23rd, 18th, and 28th in wOBA against left-handed pitching respectively, while the Athletics and Rays present significant strikeout upside to southpaws as well. Despite Sabathia posting solid surface results of late, he is still surrendering a 38.8% hard hit rate to right-handed batters, which is worrisome considering an impressively low hard contact rate was key to his resurgence last season. Sabathia will also draw the unenviable task of shutting down this suddenly potent Toronto Blue Jays lineup on Thursday night. Now that Jose Bautista is looking like his old self and Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are back in the fold, it shouldn’t take long for Toronto to improve their middling 16th ranked wOBA against southpaws. The Blue Jays may not have the highest run upside on tonight’s 4-game slate, but they certainly do possess the most power upside. Josh Donaldson (150 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .235 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is clear top option in this Blue Jays lineup and looks to be rounding into form following his stint on the disabled list, while Justin Smoak (114 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .202 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Jose Bautista should be considered as secondary options. Kevin Pillar (109 wRC+, .336 wOBA vs LHP since 2016) has decent plate skills against lefties but is better utilized as a part of Blue Jays stack in tournaments given his lack of individual power upside.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, Troy Tulowitzki, CC Sabathia
Wade Miley (4.58 SIERA) is due for serious regression to his low 3.02 ERA
After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has begun to come back down to earth in his last few outings, pitching past the fifth inning just once in his last six starts. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a naturally righty-heavy Boston Red Sox squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 20.5%, a substantial decrease after his unsustainable start to the year, while his walk rate has ballooned to 13.0% in no time. Miley’s 53.8% groundball rate versus righties is still above-average but is not enough to deter us from Red Sox bats considering he is allowing a 22.0% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 37.9% of the time. The Red Sox are likely to be one of the most popular offenses on this slate, and it seems justified after what the did to Miley’s fellow southpaw, Jose Quintana, just a few short days ago. With how much ownership the Red Sox top bats are expected to attract, it definitely isn’t a horrible idea to try to get creative with your Boston stacks, especially in large field tournaments. As always, anytime the Red Sox face a lefty, Hanley Ramirez (167 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .302 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Chris Young (137 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .208 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Xander Bogaerts (135 wRC+, .379 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), and Mookie Betts (110 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2016) headline the hitters we should be focusing on, while salary saving options like Christian Vazquez (126 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .174 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Sam Travis are perfect options to round out Red Sox stacks in tournaments, However, it’s important to keep in mind that Travis may be lifted in favor of a pinch-hitter later in the game, despite how well he has performed since his call-up, as he is typically only in the lineup to hit left-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Sam Travis, Wade Miley Marco Estrada's 21.8 K-BB% is eighth best in majors, but Yankees top offense vs fly ball pitchers (132 sOPS+)
Marco Estrada has a career high 27.9 K% and 12.6 SwStr%. While he’s generating one of his lower hard contact rates (27.9% as well), his 7.1 IFFB% is also the lowest of his career as well. None the less, his 21.8 K-BB% is eighth best in baseball. He’s struck out at least eight in three of his last four with at least six innings in 10 of his 11 starts this year. He also has the toughest matchup on the slate. The Yankees have a 120 wRC+ and 17.0 HR/FB vs RHP and are the top offense in baseball (132 sOPS+) against fly ball pitchers, while Estrada has the lowest ground ball rate on the slate over the last two calendar years (32.8%) and has allowed a HR in five straight starts. Exposure to either side of this matchup should be acceptable on a four game slate. RHBs actually have a higher wOBA against Estrada since last season (.298 to .268) with HRs split dead evenly, which would seem to favor the Yankees here with Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .317 ISO vs RHP career) batting third behind Gary Sanchez (169 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP career). Judge has barreled up 24.6% of his batted balls this season with a 101.5 mph aEV, leading the majors with 28 total Barrels. Both Matt Holliday (.244) and, surprisingly, Brett Gardner (.254) have an ISO above .200 against RHP as well this year.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Brett Gardner Goldschmidt and Tomas have hit the ball hard against LHP, but without results to show for it
Inexplicably, a predominantly RH lineup with Paul Goldschmidt in the middle has been struggling against LHP this season (78 wRC+, 15.6 K-BB%). Perhaps it’s Goldschmidt’s 100 wRC+ and .154 ISO that’s responsible for a large portion of that. A 52.4 Hard% tells a better story going forward, but the cost remains steep. He’s the second best overall bat according to RotoGrinders Player Projections. The team has also struggled to a 76 wRC+ on the road with a 25.1 K%. Jeff Locke makes his first start for Miami after rehabbing from a shoulder injury. In four minor league starts (all below AAA), he struck out 22 of 81 batters with just two walks and two HRs. He has just a 7.4 career K-BB% in over 600 innings, so 20 innings below AAA is not going to change our minds. Either Nick Ahmed (160 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this year) or Chris Owings (117 wRC+, .158 ISO vs LHP this year) are solid SS options tonight in the top half the lineup with Ahmed more likely to get you to Greinke at a lower cost. Yasmani Tomas destroyed LHP last season, but has just a 51 wRC+ and .173 ISO against them this year, though, like Goldschimdt, he has been hitting the ball hard (39.4%), but has only been getting in the air 27.3% of the time.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Yasmany Tomas, Nick Ahmed, Chris Owusu, Jeff Locke Zack Greinke struck out just six, but with a season high 24.7 SwStr% in his last start
Zack Greinke mocks your velocity. He did tie a season high with five runs allowed in Milwaukee last time out with his lowest strikeout total (six) in over a month, but had a season high 24.7 SwStr% and hasn’t been below 10% since his first start of the season (9.8%). His 24.7 K-BB% is third best in the majors, meaning you can live with a 37.1 Hard% and 8.1% Barrels/BBE. He gets a park boost in Miami tonight. RotoGrinders Player Projections have him as the top pitcher on the slate with the Marlins the only team Vegas projects for less than four runs tonight. The cost is steep ($12.7K on DraftKings) so he may not be a tremendous value on a larger slate, but may be difficult to entirely fade tonight. As Greinke doesn’t seem to have much of a platoon split and has handed out his HRs evenly this season, power bats for the Marlins could be considered and are likely to have low ownership. They have a 22.2 HR/FB as a team ove the last week. Stanton, Bour and Ozuna all have an ISO above .200 against RHP this year and a wRC+ above 200 over the last week. Greinke has allowed nine HRs over his last six games.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Marcell Ozuna The Angels may struggle to take advantage of favorable matchup
The Angels’ offense arguably has the best pitching matchup today against Adalberto Mejia. Although we only have small sample size from him this season of 21.1 innings pitched and 95 total batters faced, the Twins’ starter has the highest SIERA (5.01) and Contact% (83.0%). He also has a hitter-friendly 41.3% FB% and 12.6% BB% while his 20.0% K% this season is the second-lowest among starters going tonight. He’s particularly struggled against RHB (87 total batters faced), who have a .381 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 43.9% FB% this season, although he has limited Hard% to 28.1%. The question is whether Los Angeles has enough firepower without Trout in the lineup. Among the projected starters, all but one guy will bat from the right side tonight and none of them have an ISO above .200 this year. In fact, five of them have ISOs of .085 or under. The three above that range are Jefry Marte (.194 ISO, .301 wOBA, 23.3% Hard%, 23.3% FB%), Martin Maldonado (.172 ISO, .488 wOBA, 37.5% Hard%), and Albert Pujols (.135 ISO, .263 wOBA, 30.0% Hard%, 33.3% FB%). In Maldonado’s case, he currently has a .500 BABIP against LHP, indicating some of his numbers are a bit inflated. The Angels have the third-highest projected run total on the slate (4.38) – although, generally speaking, it isn’t that high – and clearly have a favorable matchup. However, outside of the three guys mentioned above, it’ll be hard to find strong targets to stack on this team and if the other six guys struggle, it would damage the value of Marte, Maldonado, and Pujols, none of whom have put up super strong numbers against LHP to begin with. Another thing to consider is Mejia’s average start has lasted 4.2 innings this season and he’s only made it past 5.0 once. The Twins bullpen ranks 15th in ISO (.166) and 17th in wOBA (.314) against RHB this year; while they’re not strongest bullpen they’re close to average.
Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte, Adalberto Mejia
Eduardo Rodriguez has held RHBs to a .299 wOBA since 2016, projected as top FD value tonight
The Orioles broke out for 10 runs last night, but still have just an 89 wRC+ at home and 95 wRC+ vs LHP (24.4 K%), though they do make good contact against southpaws (36.1 Hard%). Baltimore is still a difficult place to pitch for a pitcher with a 33.8 GB%, but Eduardo Rodriguez has the third highest strikeout rate (26.6%) and swinging strike rate (12.1%) on the slate with only 27.9% hard contact. Additionally, the Orioles have just a 90 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against fly ball pitchers too.The third highest priced pitcher on either site, right around $9K, Rodriguez appears to be the play here. RotoGrinders Player Projections like him as the top value play on FanDuel tonight (2.27 Pt/$/K). He has allowed RHBs just a .299 wOBA since last season, while only Manny Machado (.246) has an ISO above .175 against LHP for the Orioles this year. He carries a -23 wRC+ over the last week into this game, but does cost less than $4K on DraftKings tonight. Joey Rickard (121 wRC+, .160 ISO vs LHP since 2016) may have some value on FanDuel for just $2.4K.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Joey Rickard