DFS Alerts
Alex Meyer is allowing a .620 wOBA+ISO to LHB this season
That’s by far the highest on the main slate tonight. Broken down individually, his .383 wOBA and .237 ISO are also the highest against lefties. The sample is small (53 batters), but his career numbers are even worse through 105 total lefties faced: .410 wOBA, .302 ISO. He’s also allowing a 47.6 FB% and 36.5% Hard%, although those numbers have dipped to 44.4% and 29.6% Hard% in 2017. The latter number is a little suspect considering his Soft% is just 7.4%. Tonight, he’s expected to face six lefty bats, if the Twins’ projected lineup holds. Most notably, Max Kepler has posted a 43.0% FB%, 41.7% Hard% and turned in a .205 ISO, .368 wOBA, and 131 wRC+. Joe Mauer has been making solid contact with the ball (43.2% Hard%), although his ISO is .141, in part due to a low FB% of 29.4%. Still, he has a wOBA of .365 and 129 wRC+. Minnesota is also projected to use Robbie Grossman (.200 ISO, .372 wOBA, 24.6% Hard%, 33.3% FB%), Jorge Polanco (.115 ISO, .312 wOBA, 29.7% Hard%, 43.0% FB%), Eddie Rosario (.195 ISO, .328 wOBA, 26.9% Hard%, 34.8% FB%), and Jason Castro (.165 ISO, .314 wOBA, 31.5% Hard%, 35.2% FB%) – all of whom make for interesting secondary tournament targets or pieces of a stack in this spot . Meyer has been much more effective against RHB with a .309 wOBA, .114 ISO, and 25.0% Soft% this season. Of course, he could still have trouble dealing with Miguel Sano and his 55.6% Hard%, 47.6% FB%, .287 ISO, and .412 wOBA against RHP. Brian Dozier has also put up solid numbers – 34.2% Hard%, 41.4% FB%, .179 ISO, .319 wOBA vs. RHP – but he doesn’t seem as strong an option as Kepler, given Meyer’s handedness splits. Currently, Minnesota has the third-lowest projected run total on the four-game slate (4.12), so they could sneak by with low ownership, making them a potential way to differentiate lineups in GPPs on a small slate. Be sure to check out the official lineup when it’s released.
Other tagged players: Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman
Eduardo Rodriguez has some big K potential Thursday night
On the heels of an improved SwStr% – it’s up 1.4% to 12.0% this season – Rodriguez has raised his K% by 4.8% to 26.6%, which is good for third on tonight’s slate. He has the best matchup for strikeouts on the board, as the Orioles have posted a 24.5% K% against LHP this season – a full 2% higher than the second team tonight in terms of handedness splits. Rodriguez’s 43.9% FB% isn’t what we’d like to see, but he’s limiting hard contact to 27.9%, the lowest figure on the slate. Plus, the two other top pitching targets, Greinke and Estrada, have high fly ball rates themselves – 41.0% and 47.2%, respectively. Greinke is allowing a 37.1% Hard% while Estrada is tied with Rodriguez in the metric. In terms of handedness splits, Estrada arguably has the tougher spot – the Yankees have posted a .191 ISO, .350 wOBA, and 120 wRC+ vs. RHP this season to the Orioles’ .145 ISO, .316 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ against lefties. Estrada’s strikeout stats are pretty comparable – 27.9% K% and a 12.6% SwStr% – although he’s had better command this season, posting a 6.1% BB% to Rodriguez’s 9.5%. On the positive side, the Yankees walk at a higher clip (9.5% in split) than the Orioles (8.0% in split) and they have a lower K rate (22.4% in split). Rodriguez provides a $700 savings off Estrada on DraftKings and he’s $200 cheaper on FanDuel. It’ll be worthwhile to check our projected ownership when it’s released this afternoon as Rodriguez could become even more appealing. Currently, he projects as our SP1 in terms of points-per-dollar on DK.
Other tagged players: Marco Estrada Chase Anderson allowing 47.4% FB% and 42.4% Hard% to LHB this season
Anderson squares off against a Mets’ lineup featuring six lefties this afternoon and the wind is going to be blowing 10-15 mph out to right in a stadium that’s already homer-friendly in that direction. On top of the aforementioned stats, after facing 90 LHBs, Anderson has allowed a .187 ISO, .343 wOBA, and a 29.8% GB%. His HR/FB rate is just 7.4%, but that’s bound to go up if he keeps allowing this level of hard contact – his career average is 10.9% and he that number increased to 13.3% last season as he allowed 43.2% FB% and 32.3 Hard%. This sets up a great spot for several bats – Jay Bruce (.317 ISO, .398 wOBA, 48.2% FB%, 46.4% Hard%, 20.8% HR/FB vs RHP this season), Michael Conforto (.311 ISO, .429 wOBA, 37.6% FB%, 45.5% Hard%, 26.3% HR/FB), Lucas Duda (.264 ISO, .368 wOBA, 44.6% FB%, 38.5% Hard%, 20.7% HR/FB), Curtis Granderson (.190 ISO, .303 wOBA, 48.5% FB%, 33.7% Hard%, 8.0% HR/FB), and Neil Walker (.180 ISO, .323 wOBA, 39.7% FB%, 33.3% Hard%, 12.0% HR/FB) are the top targets. Anderson has a 23.3% K% against lefties this season, but as a team, the Mets have a solid 19.1% K% against LHP. New York currently has the second-highest projected run total on the early slate (4.55); they’re looking like a great squad to stack.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Chase Anderson Thursday morning forecast is clear; Brewers-Mets considered YELLOW/GREEN
That’s the only game with any concern as of now – it’s based on the small chance of a pop-up storm. They should be all set to play ball but check back for an update prior to lock. The good news is Kevin Roth is expecting winds up to 10-15 mph blowing out to right field, which could provide a slight dinger boost in a ballpark that already sees an above-average number of homers out that way. On top of that, it should hit 80 degrees during the game. Check out our weather page for complete details and don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Yankees-Orioles only dealing with a brief delay; expected to start at 7:15 PM ET
This tilt is only expected to be delayed by a few minutes, so we’re able to proceed as normal at this point.
As reported by: Bryan Hoch
Yankees-Orioles to be delayed due to rain
The storm is apparently moving rather quickly, but this game won’t start on time. It still appears to have a good chance to be completed tonight, so the Yankee bats are still firmly in play, but the pitchers here carry some risk.
As reported by: Dan Connolly Antonio Senzatela has just a 3.9% K-BB% versus LHB
Antonio Senzatela continues to find ways to limit the damage against him, holding the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless in eight innings of work at Coors Field his last time out. It’s tough to buy into Senzatela and his 3.19 ERA considering his SIERA is currently sitting at an unimpressive 4.77, which is obviously a substantial gap. It is certainly plausible that Senzatela could end up being one of those starting pitchers that can consistently outperform his peripherals with his ability to limit hard contact (28.1% HH%), but through just 10 career starts, we’ll have to lean on side of inevitable negative regression to his aforementioned ERA and low .249 BABIP, especially versus left-handed batters where he is surrendering average hard contact and an overall average batted ball profile. This leaves us with Robinson Cano (167 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP), Kyle Seager (140 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Ben Gamel (155 wRC+, .394 wOBA vs RHP) as the primary Seattle Mariners hitters we want to target. Seager is off to a relatively slow start against righties this season (to his standards anyway) but has notched a 39.8% hard hit rate and 13.8% strikeout rate, indicating some strong positive regression coming his way. Additionally, after some injury concern, Nelson Cruz (146 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .248 ISO vs RHP) is in the Mariners lineup tonight, leaving him as the top right-handed bat to target, but is probably only worth rostering if looking to fully stack the Seattle offense in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ben Gamel, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Antonio Senzatela
No major rain concerns in Wednesday night's MLB weather forecast, but several games to monitor
It’s not exactly a quiet night across Major League Baseball on the weather front, but there doesn’t look to be any games in danger of postponement. The worst risk classification of the night comes to us in the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets at Citi Field, which is currently graded as YELLOW by Kevin Roth for the possibility of a rain delay. This does add some risk to rostering Jacob deGrom should there be an in-game delay that cuts his start short, but hitters do remain firmly in play, especially from the Mets side of things. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jaime Garcia has notched a 19.0% K-BB% in his last two starts, faces off with the Trout-less Angels
Jaime Garcia is coming off of two consecutive solid outings in which he allowed one earned run or less and pitched into at least the seventh inning in each start. Tonight, he’ll receive the added benefit of facing a Mike Trout-less Los Angeles Angels squad on the road at a pitchers’ ballpark. The Angels are a lineup with very little power, evidenced by the fifth-worst ISO in the Majors versus left-handed pitching, a ranking that was achieved even with known lefty-masher and the best player in baseball, Mike Trout, available to give them some sort of pop against southpaws. Simply, there is no one in the Angels lineup that should give us much worry in rostering opposing starting pitchers. Garcia is not a pitcher that brings any sort of elite all-around skillset or strikeout upside to the table, but he does own a 54.2% groundball rate and does a good job of limiting hard contact (28.1% HH%), which really limits the damage opposing offenses can rack up against him. As mentioned previously, Garcia doesn’t have massive strikeout ability, but can occasionally achieve a strikeout per inning if he has his stuff working, which makes him a viable SP2 on DraftKings for all formats, especially if looking to pay up for either Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Small change to Red Sox lineup: Bradley now hits ahead of Rutledge
The Sox have flipped Jackie Bradley Jr. and Josh Rutledge in the order, which leads to Bradley hitting 5th and Rutledge batting 6th.
As reported by: Tim Britton Other tagged players: Josh Rutledge Chris Archer is in search of his fifth double-digit K performance in last six starts
Chris Archer finally managed to put together a great start away from Tropicana Field his last time out, limiting the Minnesota Twins to just two earned runs and striking out 11 batters in 7.2 innings pitched. This is good to see, as Archer has had pretty significant home/road splits dating back to last season in both his advanced stats and surface results, primarily in the strikeout department. His strikeout rates of 25.4% in 2016 and 23.0% on the road this season are still more than respectable, but they are nowhere near the elite 35.2% strikeout rate Archer has notched at the Trop through 40 innings pitched to start the year. However, it’s always tough to give too much credence to the noise associated with home/road splits, and this may be spot to hop on Archer at lower ownership than the likes of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in large field tournaments and hope that his splits continue to regress to the mean for a second consecutive road start. All in all, this is a tough spot for Archer heading to a hitters’ park in Texas where it is supposed to be 90 degrees tonight, but this Rangers squad does offer a good amount of strikeout upside, although they possess a good amount of power as well. Clearly, there is more risk associated with rostering Archer than Scherzer or deGrom, but game theory states that we should always consider taking a similar upside arm at a severely lower projected ownership.
As reported by: FanGraphs Rays set to face 32-year-old rookie Austin Bibens-Dirkx tonight
It’ll be Bibens-Dirkx first Big League start and he’s in for a tough matchup with an offense that’s posted a .198 ISO against RHP this season, the highest ISO on the slate based on handedness splits. Bibens-Dirkx has pitched 11.1 innings as a reliever this season and faced 46 batters – not a large sample size. He may have a 3.97 ERA during that stretch and a 4.18 SIERA but his peripherals suggest those numbers could’ve been a lot worse. His 30.3% GB% is the lowest on the slate while his 51.5% FB% is the highest. He has a Hard% of 36.4% and an F-Strike% of just 47.8%, suggesting his 6.5% BB% will rise. His BABIP, which was between .282 and .450 in his last six triple-a stops, is just .193 so far. In addition to a high ISO against RHP, Tampa Bay has a .336 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 37.8% FB%, 17.7% HR/FB, and a 36.4% Hard%. Although they have the highest K% in split tonight (26.2%) and Bibens-Dirkz has a respectable 19.6% K%, Vegas seems to be on the hitters’ side, providing them a 5.03 projected run total, the second-highest on the slate. If their projected lineup holds, they’ll have three lefties available that have been crushing RHP – Logan Morrison (45.9% FB%, 42.9% Hard%, .301 ISO, .366 wOBA), Corey Dickerson (42,6% FB%, 40.0% Hard%, .299 ISO, .416 wOBA), and Colby Rasmus (45.0% FB%, 41.5% Hard%, .268 ISO, .335 wOBA) stand out as the top targets against the old rookie.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Colby Rasmus, Austin Bibens-Dirkx Junior Guerra's SwStr% is up to 15.2% this year
Guerra, who has a 25.7% K%, has only made two starts this season and pitched a total of 8.2 innings as he’s been on the DL since straining his calf on opening day. He made his second start against Arizona last Friday and picked up five strikeouts and allowed just one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. On a slate filled with big strikeout pitchers, Guerra should come with very low ownership in tournaments, but he may be worth a shot in GPPs on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings at his low price tag – he’s $5.9k on DK. His $8.1k salary on FanDuel appears to be too high, especially for a one-pitcher site as there are too many elite options available. Although we have a small sample of 35 batters faced this season, he’s done very well, limiting them to a 67.2% Contact%, 27.3% Soft%, and 22.7% Hard%. All three of those figures are the best on the slate. If we consider the last two seasons, those numbers rise to 76.0%, 20.4%, and 33.2%, respectively. However, his 2.83 ERA since 2016 is the lowest among available pitchers tonight. His SIERA is towards the back of the pack (4.37) and his BABIP has been .242 during the stretch. This season, it’s a measly .100, so he is in danger of seeing his numbers rise. However, if he can keep his SwStr% and Soft% numbers up, he could still deliver a nice value tonight. That may be a tall order as the Mets K% against RHP is just 19.1% this season and their lineup is loaded with strong LHB, who have combined for a 35.0% Hard% against righties. Choosing Guerra is undoubtedly a high-risk play, but he allows stronger bats and he’s been effective so far this season. Guerra currently projects fourth in terms of points-per-dollar on DK.
Bryce Harper to begin serving his three game suspension tonight
Harper won’t be in the lineup tonight and won’t rejoin the lineup until the weekend. The Nationals don’t get rolling until 10:15 ET tonight, so we may not have a confirmed lineup out for them until shortly before 7 PM ET, but either Adam Lind (who made a start in LF on Sunday) or Brian Goodwin is likely to replace Harper.
As reported by: Mike Stanton Other tagged players: Adam Lind, Brian Goodwin Bryce Harper's suspension reduced to three games
Harper’s appeal has resulted in his suspension being shortened by one game, so it’s a win. It still remains to be seen whether or not he’ll begin serving the suspension tonight.
As reported by: Ken Rosenthal