DFS Alerts
Ian Kennedy has posted a 49.6% FB% and 36.8% Hard% this season
Both numbers represent career-highs for Kennedy, who’s facing a dangerous Detroit offense tonight. If the Tigers’ projected lineup holds, they’ll offer six batters who have Hard% of at least 42.7% vs RHP this year, three of whom have FB% of 44,7% or higher – J.D. Martinez (50.0% Hard%, 44,7% FB%, .358 ISO, .394 wOBA), Alex Avila (63.6% Hard%, 47.3% FB%, .318 ISO, .467 wOBA), Justin Upton (42.7% Hard%, 47.2% FB%, .221 ISO, .334 wOBA), Miguel Cabrera (47.2% Hard%, 31.5% FB%, .169 ISO, .317 wOBA), Nick Castellanos (46.0% Hard%, 32.4% FB%, .124 ISO, .276 wOBA), Victor Martinez (45.8% Hard%, 37.6% FB%, .116 ISO, .294 wOBA). Their strengths line up well with Kennedy’s weaknesses. Despite being a righty, Kennedy has fared worse against RHB this season, allowing a .243 ISO, 34.6% Hard%, and 51.9% FB%. His wOBA is currently .293 after facing 79 batters, but it should rise considering his peripherals and his low .149 BABIP. LHB have only posted a .132 ISO against him, however, he’s allowing a 38.5% hard contact rate and a 47.7% FB% with a .226 BABIP. Kennedy has the fifth-highest SIERA on the slate (4.84) and the highest BB% (11.5%). Despite the favorable matchup – Detroit’s projected run total of 4.35 is ninth tonight, which means they could potentially sneak by with lower ownership than they deserve. There are some weather concerns here as the game is currently considered YELLOW; it’ll be important to take a look at the afternoon weather update.
Other tagged players: Victor Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton
Astros own the highest projected run total on the early slate
Vegas currently provides Houston a 5.2 implied total for this afternoon’s matchup with the Twins. They’ll be facing Hector Santiago, who holds the second-highest SIERA (5.15) and Contact% (82.3%), the lowest GB% (32.4%), and the highest Hard% (37.6%). He’s posted atrocious numbers again lefties this season – .648 wOBA, .485 ISO, 55.2% Hard%, 45.5% HR/FB, 7.94 HR/9 – although he’s only faced 42 total LHB and his .500 BABIP indicates he’s been unlucky, although the Hard% certainly helped inflate that number. Conversely, he has a .222 BABIP against 201 RHB, which has limited righties to a .249 wOBA and .092 ISO, despite a 34.6% Hard% and 50.3% FB%. Eventually, those BABIP numbers will move towards his career averages of .286 vs. LHB and .260 vs. RHB, although there’s a good chance they both end up above those rates given the level of hard contact and fly balls he’s allowing. Over the course of his career, he has been better against lefties – 28.6% Hard%, 44.1% GB%, .115 ISO – and worse against righties – 34.2% Hard%, 29.6% GB%, .188 ISO – but with the way he’s pitching, it seems either type of bat is in play today. Houston offers four hitters with at least a .211 ISO, .385 wOBA, and 147 wRC+ against LHP this season – Springer (.298 ISO, .394 wOBA, 153 wRC+), Altuve (.286 ISO, .406 wOBA, 162 wRC+), Gonzalez (.257 ISO, .385 wOBA, 147 wRC+), Bregman (.211 ISO, .417 wOBA, 169 wRC+). Gattis is batting cleanup today; he’s posted a 50.0% FB%, .200 ISO, and .272 wOBA vs. LHP this year, while his BABIP is just .143. Correa has managed a 34.3% Hard%, although his GB% is a sky-high 62.9% so far – as mentioned, he has a favorable matchup to do better this afternoon. This seems like a great spot to target but their ownership will likely be high in GPPs given their high total.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa Wednesday morning forecast mostly clear, contains a few spots to monitor
The primary problem areas are on the main slate – Brewers-Mets and Tigers-Royals are both considered YELLOW as some storms are expected in both areas. The Yankees-Orioles game is concerned YELLOW/GREEN for similar reasons, but Kevin Roth is expecting the coverage to be lower in the area. All three games will require an afternoon update so be sure to check back for Roth’s afternoon forecast. As of now, the game in Kansas City is at the highest risk of issues. On the early slate, the Diamondbacks-Pirates game has been labeled GREEN/YELLOW as there will be some precipitation before and after the game – it should be fine, but there is a slight possibility of a delay if the first batch doesn’t clear in time. In terms of favorable conditions, we should see winds up to 15 mph blowing out to right in the Astros-Twins matchup. Normally this ballpark limits dingers in right field, so the winds could help a bit. Out in Arlington, it’s expected to be 87 degrees at first pitch for the Rays-Rangers meeting – it’s the only game with temperatures forecasted above 80. As always, check out our weather page for complete details and don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Miguel Sano scratched from Twins lineup Tuesday night
Sano has officially been scratched from the Minnesota Twins lineup for tonight’s game against the Houston Astros due to an illness. Ehire Adrianza will replace him at third base and bat ninth. This news will also force Joe Mauer and Robbie Grossman swap spots from the original lineup, with Mauer now hitting second and Grossman third. The remaining Twins batters outside of Brian Dozier all move up one spot in the order with Adrianza sliding into the nine-hole.
As reported by: Jake Kaplan
Players can look towards the middle infield or behind the plate for cheap bats tonight
With Chris Sale on the mound and a game at Coors tonight featuring one vulnerable lefty, players are going to need spots to save salary. The best spot for that may be at SS. Allen Cordoba (125 wRC+ vs RHP) is hitting leadoff. Eddie Butler sometimes gets ground balls, but not a lot of strikeouts and Cordoba is $2.6K or less on either site. Though he bats further down in the order tonight. Tim Beckham is another option at SS for $3K or less on either site in Texas against Nick Martinez. For FanDuel players, Catcher is another spot to save with Chris Herrmann costing $2.2K ($1.5K more on DraftKings). He bats in the lower half of the order as well, but has a .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and Pittsburgh is more forgiving to LH power than RH. Dixon Machado is another middle infield bat leading off for $2.7K on DraftKings and the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He has just a 78 career wRC+ against LHP though and faces a debuting LHP in Eric Skoglund. Competent cheap bats in decent spots are becoming more difficult to find as we get deeper into the season.
Other tagged players: Tim Beckham, Dixon Machado, Chris Herrmann
Clarifying Bryce Harper's situation; he is appealing his suspension and is still available to play tonight
Just to clarify for those that may have been confused by Harper’s suspension – Harper has been suspended four games, but he’s appealing the suspension which means he’ll be able to play until his case is heard. Stay tuned for the Nationals confirmed lineup.
Bryce Harper suspended four games, Hunter Strickland receives a six game suspension
Both players are appealing the suspension so both will be able to take the field tonight, but we’re still waiting on confirmed lineups from both teams. It’s likely that Harper is in the starting lineup.
As reported by: Joel Sherman Adam Jones scratched, Joey Rickard will replace him
Adam Jones has been scratched from the Baltimore lineup with Joey Rickard replacing him and batting eighth. Jonathan Schoop will move up to second against Luis Severino
As reported by: Roch Kubatko Other tagged players: Joey Rickard, Luis Severino, Jonathan Schoop Concern about the Yankees & Orioles in Kevin's' late forecast
The Yankees & Orioles have some significant weather concerns tonight. Kevin has graded it ORANGE/YELLOW with substantial rain in the area. It may eventually clear up, but this is a divisional, which could make it easier to be rescheduled. At the very least, it may take Luis Severino off the board. There are still several high strikeout pivots from Chris Sale remaining, but his ownership rate will likely increase with this report. Speaking of Sale, his return to Chicago is another area where we may see some rain potential, but Kevin doesn’t expect a major impact either here or in New York where the Mets face the Brewers. Be sure to read the entire report on our Weather page, where Kevin mentions no less than 10 games tonight, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Chris Sale Mets LHB should go overlooked in home matchup with Zach Davies
Zach Davies is coming off of three consecutive middling performances in which he failed to strikeout more than three batters and allowed three earned runs or more in two of those three aforementioned outings. Tonight, he’ll take the mound against a Mets squad that will roll out seven left-handed hitters, several of which possess elite skill versus right-handed pitching. Davies doesn’t have any extreme splits to worry about, meaning Travis d’Arnaud can still be considered despite being the only righty in the Mets lineup, though not recommended unless trying to differentiate a Mets stack in tournaments. With that said, Davies is essentially a slightly below-average starting pitcher at the Major League level, with no individually bad metrics that particularly stand out, though he has notched an 18.3% strikeout rate to left-handed batters, which is actually significantly higher than 14.5% whiff rate to righties. His batted ball profile is also nothing to write home about, so we can defer to the Mets skills versus right-handed pitching and not need to focus on Davies’ strengths and weaknesses. Michael Conforto (173 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .323 ISO vs RHP) and Jay Bruce (158 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .336 ISO vs RHP) are the clear top options in this Mets order, while Lucas Duda (140 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .256 ISO vs RHP) has been hot, homering three times in the last five games. Asdrubal Cabrera (113 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Neil Walker (107 wRC+, .329 wOBA, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are struggling a bit more at the plate against righties than normal in the first two months of the season, but are perfectly viable as part of a Mets stack in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, Zach Davies Coors RHBs and Chris Sale expected to dominate ownership rates tonight
Coors RHBs dominate the the top 10 spots on the Projected Ownership page on either site with a couple of Blue Jays scattered in. These offenses have the top three implied runs lines this evening. With Chris Sale expected to be the most popular pitcher, it’s going to be a bit difficult for players to have it both ways. Players could look to the fourth team projected for five runs tonight, Tampa Bay. Not a single Ray is projected to be in more than 10% of lineups on either site. Colby Rasmus or Steven Souza are most likely to be omitted from Rays stacks as there are four outfield eligible bats, but have a wRC+ above 200 with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. There are a number of pitchers with big strikeout potential tonight with Vince Velasquez projecting for potentially the lowest ownership rate among them. Premium subscribers can find projected ownership rates for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, Steven Souza, Vince Velasquez Houston has the top offense on the road, vs RHP and last seven days via wRC+ and most HRs vs fly ball pitchers
Jose Berrios has 18 strikeouts over his last 52 batters and perhaps just as importantly has only walked only three. Players may want to proceed with caution in this particular matchup though because he faces the best offense in baseball. The Astros are the top road offense (121 wRC+), best against RHP (123 wRC+) and the hottest team in over the last week (151 wRC+). They are not the best in ever area though. Jose Berrios has just a 37.6 GB% and Houston is merely second with a 117 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. They are tied for the most HRs against fly ball pitchers though (43). Marwin Gonzalez has been the key culprit with a seven HRs and a 198 sOPS+. He doesn’t often play against RHPs, but if he’s in there, players now know why. In fact, every regular on the team has at least a 107 sOPS+ and three HRs against fly ball pitchers except Carlos Beltran (64 sOPS+, 3 HRs) and Alex Bregman (79 sOPS+, 1 HR).
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Alex Bregman, Jose Berrios Jedd Gyorko scratched Tuesday
Gyorko has been scratched from Tuesday’s lineup. Paul DeJong will play 2nd base with Jhonny Peralta manning the hot corner. Neither offense in this contest is appealing on a full slate.
As reported by: @Cardinals Coors RHBs against LHPs top the RotoGrinders Player Projections
Nelson Cruz is the top overall batter via RotoGrinders Player Projections, not surprise at all considering he’s facing a lefty in Coors, but players might want to think twice about paying the high cost because that LHP is having a fantastic May with a 25.0 K-BB%, 58.9 GB% and -11.6 Hard-Soft%. Nolan Arenado (140 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP since last season) as the second highest projected bat gets less of an argument. Ariel Miranda has allowed nine HRs to RHBs this season on top of 20 last year. Danny Valencia (152 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP since 2016) merits a look in the two hole as a potential top value on DraftKings for just $3.6K despite the month Tyler Anderson is having. Eric Thames may be the top value on FanDuel (4.15 Pt/$/K) for just $3.1K against Tyler Pill (4.8 K-BB% at AAA this season).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, Danny Valencia, Eric Thames, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Pill Arizona has the second best sOPS+ (126) against ground ball pitchers
Ivan Nova is just one of two pitchers with a ground ball rate above 50% this year and his 50.2 GB% just barely qualifies. Unfortunately, he combines that with a 13.2 K% that makes him difficult to roster even if he has gone at least six innings in every start. Arizona has just a 74 wRC+ on the road, but a 107 wRC+ against RHP. They’ve also been the second best offense against GB pitchers according to Baseball-Reference with a 126 sOPS+. A lot of that is BABIP related (.362), but they also have a major league high .465 SLG against ground ballers. Despite being a ground ball hitter himself, Paul Goldschmidt has been the top hitter with a 279 sOPS+ and four HRs. Chris Herrmann, David Peralta and Brandon Drury all have an sOPS+ above 150 as well against worm burning pitchers.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Ivan Nova, Chris Herrmann, David Peralta, Brandon Drury