DFS Alerts
Kansas City has the second worst wRC+ (65) vs LHP with just a 9.6 HR/FB
Daniel Norris has a 19.3 K%. He has a walk issue (10.1%) and a major issue with hard contact (43%). It hasn’t shown up in his LD rate or HR/FB, but he does have a .342 BABIP. He’s somehow avoiding those perfect launch angles often enough right now and faces the second worst offense in baseball vs LHP (65 wRC+, 28.8 Hard%, 9.6 HR/FB). This is more than enough to garner him consideration on an incredibly weak pitching slate, especially on two pitcher sites. In fact, he’s one of only two pitchers the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor projects for at least five Ks (5.28). He’s had major issues with RHBs (.341 wOBA, 38.7 Hard% since 2016), making Lorenzo Cain (142 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP since 2015) a solid OF option and Whit Merrifield (140 wRC+, .127 ISO vs LHP career) a potentially strong value ($2.8K FD) at Second Base. Jorge Bonifacio has just a 75 wRC+ in limited opportunities against LHP, but carries a 196 wRC+ (53.3 Hard%, 3 HRs) over the last week into this game.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Bonifacio
Marcus Stroman (22.9 K% in May) is the top projected arm on the late slate by a wide margin
Marcus Stroman is the clear top arm on a rough late slate. He’s the top overall projected arm by a wide margin via RotoGrinders Player Projections (third best projected value on either site) and tops the Daily K Predictor too (5.38) for tonight’s slate. The good news is that he continues to be a ground ball machine (61%), who has increased his strikeout rate to right around average (19.7%) with a strong month (22.9%). His hard hit rate is around league average though and his BABIP tends to run high (.308 career). Cincinnati has been a quality offense this year (101 wRC+ on the road, 103 wRC+ vs RHP) and adds a 112 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (eighth best). Regardless, he’s a very difficult fade on this slate, especially on FanDuel, where a quality start counts for something extra. Stroman will serve up the occasional HR with similar ground ball and power numbers against batters from both sides, while LHBs do have a hard hit rate five points higher than RHBs since last year. Power bats in Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Adam Duvall (102 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2016) should be low owned and are reasonable options on the small slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Joey Votto Edinson Volquez is walking fewer batters, but his K% has dropped as well
The Phillies are facing Edinson Volquez. Over his last three starts, his walk rate has dropped to a manageable 9.2%, but his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff too (14.5% with a 7.7 SwStr%). LHBs (.358 wOBA, 36 Hard%) have been more successful than RHBs against him since last season (.337 wOBA, 29.2 Hard%). The Phillies don’t have any particularly good hitters against RHP, but Tommy Joseph is the only bat with an ISO above .200 against them since 2016 (102 wRC+, .205 ISO). Aaron Alther continues his hot streak (133 wRC+, 60 Hard%), giving more credit to the theory that his mis-adventures last season were more due to injury than talent. Cesar Hernandez (108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2016) and Michael Saunders (101 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP since 2016) can be useful bats as well, though no Philadelphia bat is deemed essential or of significant value with an implied run total of just four. .
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders, Edinson Volquez, Cesar Hernandez Matt Moore allowing a .528 wOBA to LHB this season
Despite being a LHP, Moore has posted some poor stats against 66 LHB this year – .435 ISO, 52.9% Hard%, 9.8% Soft%, 34.7% GB%, 26.3% HR/FB, and a 3.86 HR/9. This provides a better than expected outlook for lefties Murphy (.250 ISO, .372 wOBA this season vs. LHP) and Harper, who’s struggled with power (.154 ISO) and hard contact through 43 plate appearances against LHP this season (28.6%), although he’s posted a .423 wOBA. Moore has been better against RHB, but he still has hitter-friendly stats – .316 wOBA, .188 ISO, 42.7% Hard%, 39.7% GB%. That brings up guys like Rendon (.455 ISO, .561 wOBA vs LHP this season), Zimmerman (.424 ISO, .496 wOBA), Werth (.222 ISO, .465 wOBA), Weiters (.353 ISO, .516 wOBA), and Michael Taylor (.227 ISO, .454 wOBA) as targets. Although the Nationals’ bats offer small sample sizes this season against lefties, they’ve been very effective across the board and make for an interesting stack this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael A. Taylor
The Athletics implied team total of 3.5 runs is currently tied for the lowest on Monday's early slate
Carlos Carrasco is coming off of two consecutive subpar outings in which he allowed at least four earned runs each time out. However, among qualified starting pitchers on Monday afternoon’s main slate, his 26.0% strikeout rate and 11.7% swinging strike rate lead the remainder of the field significantly, as Carrasco is the only starting pitcher with any semblance of consistent strikeout ability. While his strikeout rate isn’t elite in general, it’s elite when compared to the strikeout ability of the other starting pitching options available on this slate. He also has a low 6.7% walk rate, above-average 46.2% groundball rate, and below-average 29.3% hard hit rate. Today, he’ll receive the added benefit of drawing a matchup with an Oakland Athletics squad that owns the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. The downside is that Carrasco struggles with home runs from time to time, and the Athletics surprisingly have the best ISO in the Majors versus right-handed pitching to go along with the high whiff rate. However, even with Carrasco’s recent struggles and the risk-reward matchup with Oakland, he still claims the title as the top pitching option on Monday’s slate, though if ownership warrants, it may not be the worst idea to seek other alternatives in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds
Tyler Chatwood's velocity and K% are on the rise
Chatwood’s velocity is up roughly 2 mph on all of his pitches from last season and it’s enabled him to increase his K% from 17.5% to 20.0% this year while his SwStr rate is up 1.7% to 9.5%. Last game Chatwood turned it up a notch, averaging over 95 mph on his fastball, well above his 92.0 average velocity with the pitch in 2016 – if he continues this type of performance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his SwStr% rise. He finished with eight strikeouts across 7.0 innings against the Phillies (21.9% K% vs. RHP) and he didn’t allow a run for the first time since April 15th. That’s the upside he can bring to the table, but he still struggled to control the ball, walking four batters. Another side effect of throwing harder has been a 2.2% increase in his BB% this season, bringing it to a very high 12.7%. Seattle hasn’t displayed a tremendous eye against RHP this season though, ranking 15th with a 8.7% BB%. They’re 13th in K% (20.7%) and wOBA (,324), and they’re 19th in ISO (.163). It’s not a terribly frightening matchup, yet because they’re playing this one at Coors Field, the Mariners have the fourth-highest implied total on the early slate (5.05). Although Chatwood has a 4.54 SIERA, he’s posted some solid peripheral stats such as a 56.8% GB% and 21.0% FB%, both of which are the best on the slate. At the same time, he has the highest HR/FB rate (26.5%) and he’s given up two dingers on four separate occasions, two of them at home. However, that rate should eventually decline considering he’s limiting batters to a 29.1% Hard% and a 23.0% Soft%. Plus, he hasn’t allowed a homer in four straight starts. Chatwood is shaping up as a high-risk high-reward GPP play that should come with low ownership. Although the free passes are a concern and have undoubtedly had a big effect on his ERA, he will come with a big strikeout ceiling on a slate lacking many high K% pitchers – if the Mariners can’t make contact and aren’t getting walked, they won’t be able to hit their projected total. It’s nice to see he’s one of the bigger favorites on the slate (-141), adding to the notion that he could offer some sneaky upside this afternoon.
Risk in HOU-MIN game lowered to YELLOW/ORANGE in Monday's afternoon MLB weather forecast
There are several games on Monday afternoon’s 9-game main slate that have the chance of rain, but the game with the highest delay risk comes to us in the matchup between the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins and is currently classified as YELLOW/ORANGE after previously being ORANGE/YELLOW. Despite the decrease in risk, a mid-game delay remains a possibility, which makes starting pitchers extra risky in this contest. Kevin Roth does believe that the game plays through, so hitters are obviously still viable options. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page David Holmberg owns a 0.6% K-BB% in his career
David Holmberg is set to make his first start of the year in today’s home matchup against the Boston Red Sox after making eight appearances out the Chicago White Sox bullpen this season. Since 2013, Holmberg has pitched just 72.1 career innings at the Major League level and has not seen great success, evidenced by his 5.55 SIERA, 11.9% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate. He typically hasn’t struggled that much with free passes in the Minors, but the low strikeout rate appears more real than not, as he has never been a strikeout pitcher at baseball’s lower levels. Holmberg has also lacked the ability to control batted balls in any way, making him a low strikeout pitcher with questionable control that is unable to influence groundballs or fly balls one way or another. As a left-handed pitcher, he also draws the unenvious task of facing a Red Sox lineup that will roll out eight right-handed hitters Monday afternoon. Hanley Ramirez (172 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .310 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Chris Young (140 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .219 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Xander Bogaerts (126 wRC+, .366 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), Dustin Pedroia (115 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), and Mookie Betts (.237 ISO vs LHP since 2016) all possess discernable skills versus left-handed pitching, while salary-saving options like Sam Travis and Christian Vasquez (119 wRC+, .355 wOBA vs LHP since 2016) can also be considered if looking to differentiate a Red Sox stack in tournaments. Although, it’s vital to keep in mind that the lefty-specialists like Young and Travis could be lifted for a pinch-hitter later in the game since the Red Sox are likely to see a good amount of the White Sox bullpen in this one.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Sam Travis, Christian Vazquez, David Holmberg Daniel Mengden to make 2017 debut Monday afternoon in Cleveland
Following Kendall Graveman’s move to the DL, Mengden has been called up from Triple-A to start against the Indians this afternoon. The right-handed pitcher will have a tough task facing a squad that is currently projected to have five of the first six batters hitting from the left side of the plate. Through 14 major league starts and 158 total LHB faced, all of which came in 2016, he posted a .356 wOBA and a .176 ISO to go along with a 35.6% GB% and a 32.6% Hard%. Although he had a fine K% of 21.4% overall and 21.5% against LHB, he had a high 9.9% BB% to all batters and an 11.4% BB% to lefties. He finished the season with a 6.5 ERA, although his 4.5 SIERA and .344 BABIP indicates he may have been a little unlucky. Still, it seems like a great pitcher to attack with a lefty-heavy team and Vegas agrees, providing the Indians with the second-highest projected run total on the slate (5.6). If the projected lineup holds, Cleveland will offer some solid fly ball hitters and five LHB with ISOs of at least .196 this season- Lindor (47.0% FB%, 14.9% HR/FB, .356 wOBA, 125 wRC+ vs RHP this season), Ramirez (50.0% FB%, 13.0% HR/FB, .369 wOBA, 135 wRC+), Santana (41.3% FB%, 7.9% HR/FB, .343 wOBA, 116 wRC+), and Brantley (33.7% FB%, 13.8% HR/FB, .383 wOBA, 146 wRC+) are the top targets. Rookie Bradley Zimmer has only made 25 plate appearances this season but he’s been hot with a .250 ISO, 45.5% FB%, 20.0% HR/FB, .459 wOBA, 197 wRC+, and a 41.7% Hard%. His .545 BABIP indicates he’s had luck on his side though. Even so, he’s an interesting option in a GPP stack. Jason Kipnis’ ISO is just .136 and his wOBA is .277 but he’s been putting the ball in the air with a 44.4% FB% and he’s posted a 33.3% Hard%. RHB Encarnacion (35.4% FB%, 25.0% HR/FB, .323 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 39.2% Hard%) is another solid target despite Mengden putting up slightly better numbers against RHB (.354 wOBA, .173 ISO, 43.1% FB%, 26.9% Hard%). Be sure to check out Cleveland’s official lineup when it’s released as this could be one of the better teams to target on the early slate.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer, Edwin Encarnacion Adam Jones scratched from Orioles lineup Monday; Caleb Joseph replaces
Jones has officially been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles lineup for this afternoon’s game against the New York Yankees due to a sore left ankle and hip. He will be replaced in the lineup by Caleb Joseph, who will play catcher and bat ninth. This pushes Welington Castillo into the designated hitter role and Mark Trumbo into the outfield. Chris Davis also jumps up into the two-hole in Jones’ absence, sliding the likes of Castillo, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop, and J.J. Hardy up one spot each in the new batting order.
As reported by: Jon Meoli Astros-Twins game has the highest risk in the morning forecast; considered ORANGE/YELLOW
It looks like it’ll be rainy and windy in Minneapolis today where the Twins host the Astros for a 2:10 pm EST game. Kevin is expecting scattered showers throughout the afternoon with winds out to right-center picking up to 15-20 mph. He’ll be posting an update prior to lock, so be sure to keep an eye on this one. Elsewhere, there aren’t too many major concerns – several games are considered YELLOW for patches of rain though. Most notably, Kevin Roth believes the Dodgers-Cardinals game has the biggest chance of a delay, although it doesn’t seem likely. In Chicago, where the White Sox host the Red Sox, there are winds of 15-20 mph blowing out to left, which sets up favorable home run conditions in a park that already sees an above average number of dingers in that direction. Boston has one of the highest projected run totals on the slate (5.4) – they’re currently expected to have eight guys batting from the right side of the plate against lefty David Holmberg, who’s posted a career .396 wOBA to RHB along with a .278 ISO, 44.4% FB rate and 35.3% Hard%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Lance McCullers takes his 31.3% K% versus RHB into matchup with righty-heavy Orioles lineup
Lance McCullers takes the mound this afternoon against the Baltimore Orioles in search of completing his fifth consecutive start without allowing an earned run. His price tag across the industry still remains far too low for a guy that sports a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 2.98 SIERA that doesn’t even factor in his elite 60.5% groundball rate. This matchup with Baltimore is a great one for McCullers, as the Orioles are only rolling out three left-handed hitters, and his stuff is much more effective versus right-handed batters, though still solid to lefties. McCullers has notched a 31.3% strikeout rate to righties, complemented by a 65.3% ground ball rate and a 24.0% hard-hit rate. On the other hand, to lefties, he sits at a 22.5% strikeout rate, with a 56.0% ground ball rate and 26.0% hard-hit rate. Getting back to the matchup, the Orioles have struck out at a 21.9% clip to righties this season with just a .315 wOBA and 6.9% walk rate, which should all but eliminate any outstanding concerns about McCullers’ control in this spot, though he has been much more efficient, to begin with, this year (7.1% BB%). Additionally, if looking at home/road splits, the Orioles offense has been much worse as a whole on the road and have seen their strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching balloon to 24.4%, albeit a limited sample.
As reported by: FanGraphs The start of Sunday's SD-WAS game will be delayed due to rain
The start time of this afternoon’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals has officially been delayed due to rain. The teams do not currently have a tentative time set to begin play, but the postponement risk is nearly non-existent, according to David Wolter’s weather forecast. Some risk still does remain for starting pitchers should a mid-game delay occur but hitters obviously remain entirely in play.
As reported by: Dennis Lin Several games classified as YELLOW/GREEN in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
There’s are a few games with some rain concerns on Sunday’s main 11-game slate. The game with the most risk looks to be in the matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians, where the weather risk is currently classified as YELLOW/GREEN for the chance of a delay from scattered rain and storms developing in the area during the game. Hitters from this contest remain firmly in play since there is very little risk of a postponement, but pitchers should be rostered with caution in case of a mid-game delay. Be sure to check out David’s (our fantastic occasional weekend fill-in meteorologist) full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow David Wolter on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @DavidWolter1.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page The 3.20 SIERA of Joe Biagini ranks third-best on Sunday's main slate
Joe Biagini is set to make his fifth start since beginning his transition from the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen to their starting rotation as he takes on the Texas Rangers at home this afternoon. Biagini is priced at a huge discount across the industry, especially on DraftKings at $4.8K, and could be the key to paying up for some of the expensive bats in plus matchups on today’s slate. The primary concern with Biagini is his pitch count, as he has yet to eclipse 77 pitches in any of his previous five outings, but has progressively increased his pitch count in recent starts and could realistically approach 90 pitches if he is pitching well this afternoon. Biagini does have a below-average 18.1% strikeout rate to right-handed batters in his career, though that issue should be neutralized by the fact two of the four righties in the Rangers lineup whiff at rates greater that 28.5% (Mike Napoli and Ryan Rua), but his 25.0% strikeout versus left-handed batters is well above-average, especially for a right-handed pitcher. He has also been able to limit lefties to a 26.8% hard hit rate while keeping the ball on the ground 59.2% of the time and is complemented by a 51.9% groundball rate and elite 21.7% hard hit rate versus righties. The aforementioned stats indicate that Biagini should be the beneficiary of much better results than he has been seeing. This is largely due to a low 60.8% LOB%, a luck metric that should typically stabilize around 70-75% over time. While the pitch count is a concern, Biagini has the advanced metrics and right matchup to put up a tournament-winning score for his price tag on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs