DFS Alerts

Manny Machado has three HRs against Luis Severino

Two players lead the PvB offerings with three HRs against the pitcher whom they are facing tonight. The less relevant information comes to us from the matchup between Alex Gordon and Justin Verlander. In 85 total PAs, just six BBEs have been recorded with an 84.7 mph aEV. Verlander has struck out Gordon 26 times! However, Manny Machado matches that HR total in 12 PAs against Luis Severino. This is a bit of a surprise as Severino has dominated RHBs, but Machado has a 96.5 mph aEV on five recorded BBEs. Eric Hosmer may have some more pertinent numbers against Verlander though. The extreme ground ball hitters meets the extreme fly ball pitcher with two HRs in 83 PAs, but eight extra-base hits (14 Ks) and a 94.4 mph aEV on 13 recorded BBEs. Christian Yelich has recorded a batted ball in all 11 of his encounters with Vince Velasquez (no Ks, no BBs) and has averaged a 93.4 mph aEV with two HRs.

Jeff Samardzija has the fourth highest K-BB in the majors (24.6%) with just one walk in May

Chris Sale is the top overall pitcher tonight by a wide margin according to RotoGrinders Player Projections. He also tops the Daily K Predictor with a projection of 7.87 against his old team tonight. However, those looking to fade the likely most popular arm against his old team tonight will probably note that the White Sox have a league leading 129 wRC+ against LHP this year and he’s not nearly the only arm one can turn to for strikeouts tonight. Jeff Samardzija has struck out at least eight in five straight starts and has pitched at least two outs into the seventh in six straight, allowing more than three runs just once. His 24.6 K-BB% is now fourth among qualified pitchers, while he’s walked just one batter in May! Although the Nationals are a tough assignment, the park in San Francisco may help to neutralize it. Luis Severino dropped seven Royals in eight shutout innings in his last start. His 21.3 K-BB% remains a top 10 mark in the majors. He faces a predominantly RH Baltimore lineup and has struck out 30.8% of RHBs faced this year. The Orioles are in a state of disarray offensively. They have a 24.4 K-BB%, higher than their 22.6 Hard% over the last week to go along with a 44 wRC+. They now have an 87 wRC+ at home and 93 wRC+ vs RHP. Vince Velasquez has a 20.2 K-BB% over his last four starts, a welcome improvement from the 9.6% he was running through his first five. He faces a Marlins offense with a 90 wRC+ both at home and against RHP. Robbie Ray has thrown seven shutout innings in each of his last two starts and has a 29.8 K% on the year. His third straight road start comes in a park perhaps tailor made for his skill set. Pittsburgh greatly reduces RH power and his hard hit rate is a bit more manageable on the road (36.1% since last season).

Three pitchers are making their first major league start tonight

It’s an unusual night in the majors as three pitchers are making their first major league starts. While none are considered big prospects, Eric Skoglund is probably the most highly regarded of the group and the only one making his actual major league debut. The lefty was the eighth ranked prospect in the organization via Fangraphs with a 45 grade, projecting him as a potential back of the rotation innings eater if all goes right. He’s ascended through the minors at about a level per year with a K-BB between 15% and 16.3% at virtually every stop, but the Detroit RHBs are hammering LHP this season (42.3 Hard%, 16.3 HR/FB). If you had told the Mets that Tyler Pill was going to even sniff the major league roster this year, they would have known trouble was afoot. Not even on the 40-man roster until a few days ago, the 27 year-old is minor league depth with a K-BB below 5% at AAA this season. This will likely be his only start as Steven Matz is nearing a return. Those considering stacking Brewers should consider the weather tonight, but it’s not a bad play otherwise. Parker Bridwell threw 3.1 innings in relief for the Orioles last year, but the Angels have recently turned him into a starter at AA/AAA this year (as they’ve successfully done with a couple of relievers this year). Results have been positive thus far as he’s stretched out to five innings or more in each of his three AAA starts (24.2 K%), but he does not appear to be available on either site against the Braves tonight. Additionally, Asher Wojciechowski is three years removed from his only three major league starts for the Astros. The now Cincinnati Red 28 year-old has turned in a 23.0 K-BB% at AAA with just a 25.4 GB%. In four relief innings in the majors this year, he has a 12.5 K-BB% with a 25 GB% in the majors. The strikeouts are interesting and he looks to have the top defense in the majors behind him, but how those five starts translate to the majors, especially a now healthy Toronto offense is a bit of an unknown.

Carlos Correa is one of two batters with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week

Carlos Correa is the hottest bat in the league according to wRC+. His 330 mark over the last week (10 PA min.) tops all players and comes with a 38.1 Hard% and two HRs. He has a tough matchup in Minnesota though, facing a rejuvenated Jose Berrios (18 strikeouts last 52 batters) with temperatures expected to be below 60 degrees. Whit Merrifield came up a single short of the cycle last night. He now has a 302 wRC+ (42.1 Hard%, two HRs) over the last week. Unfortunately, he fares much better against LHP (78 wRC+, .122 ISO vs RHP) and faces Justin Verlander tonight. Anthony Rendon (293 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, 4 HRs) also has a tough matchup in San Francisco against Jeff Samardzija (eight or more Ks in five straight starts). Finally, we come upon a batter with a quality matchup, as the fourth highest wRC+ over the last week, Steve Souza (284 wRC+, .57.9 Hard%, 3 HRs), has the highest hard hit rate of the group and faces Nick Martinez in Texas tonight. Souza has actually been better against RHP the last couple of years (118 wRC+, .183 ISO since 2015). Chris Iannetta has a 272 wRC+ (55.6 Hard%, 2 HRs) in just 12 PAs and is in a Pittsburgh park that greatly suppresses RH power tonight. Adam Duvall (272 wRC+, 47.6 Hard%, 5 HRs) could be an interesting and likely lightly owned prospect in Toronto against the returning J.A. Happ.

Rays projected to start seven with a .160+ ISO vs RHP since 2015 against Martinez in Texas tonight

With a lot of uncertainty on this slate due to no less than three pitchers making their major league start, while a fourth is making just his second and fifth is more than two years removed from his only three major league starts and then some potential east coast weather issues as well, players will likely flock to Chris Sale tonight. That means players will be unlikely to afford many of the bats on offenses projected for at least five runs tonight according to our Vegas Odds page (there are four of them). While Mariners bats aren’t entirely priced up for Coors, they’re facing a good pitcher in Tyler Anderson (25.0 K-BB%, 58.9 GB% and -11.6 Hard-Soft%) in May and with just a 69 wRC+ against LHP, Vegas may be too enthusiastic here. The Blue Jays are really a four man offense and you have to choose between the two more affordable bats in that group because they both play First Base. All of this potentially makes the Rays the team to target tonight against Nick Martinez in Texas. They have an implied run line of 5.06 and it’s projected to be in the mid-80’s in Texas tonight (the warmest spot on the board). While not particularly cheap, players will be able to choose between a number of stackable options with a few more affordable ones, as the majority of projected starts have been above average against RHP (100+ wRC+) with every one of the first seven projected batters in the lineup tonight (Starting Lineups page) carrying an ISO above .160 against RHP since 2015. This may be the lineup players should be focused on tonight.

Tuesday features a full slate of evening games in MLB

Outside of the Oakland at Cleveland game (once again starting an hour early), you’ll have the opportunity to pick a player from all of the MLB teams in Tuesday’s DFS slate. There is a game at Coors and a game featuring a run total of 10 not in Coors so there will be bats to choose from Chris Sale headlines the pitching options as the Red Sox visit the White Sox.

The aforementioned Sale is the clear top option at SP for the night and his price reflects that as he’s priced well ahead of the other arms taking the mound tonight. With a game at Coors, decisions will have to be made as to what direction you go with pitcher. Other options include Robbie Ray facing the Pirates, Ivan Nova facing the Diamondbacks, Jeff Samardzija facing the Nationals (that’s a scary proposition though), Trevor Bauer facing the A’s, Gio Gonzalez facing the Giants, and Kenta Maeda facing the Cardinals.

The Rockies host the Mariners and those two teams have the highest run totals of the day and are clearly the two teams to target (although Coors has been inconsistent in terms of offensive production of late so there is merit to fading). Other teams with run totals topping five are the Blue Jays and Rays and both are excellent pivots off of the Coors Field game. Texas, Minnesota, Cleveland, Miami, and the two New York teams also have plus match ups and all have totals topping 4 1/2 runs.

Julio Teheran costs more than $8K with a 4.88 ERA and 17.1 K%

Julio Teheran gets to face the Angels without Mike Trout. It’s still difficult to understand why a pitcher with a 4.88 ERA and even higher estimators costs more than $8K with just a 17.1 K%. That said, there don’t appear to be essential plays in the Los Angeles lineup either, though Teheran has suffered a .343 wOBA (34.7 Hard%) to LHBs since last season, potentially making Kole Calhoun (109 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Luis Valbuena (116 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2015). The lineup for the Angels has not been confirmed yet.

Chris Coghlan scratched, Ezequiel Carrera will bat ninth

Coghlan has officially been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays lineup for tonight’s game against the Cincinnati Reds due to an unspecified reason. Ezequiel Carrera will replace him in left field and bat ninth. Coghlan was originally slated to bat ninth, so the remainder of the Blue Jays batting order remains intact and can be deployed in daily fantasy lineups as originally planned.

Erasmo Ramirez (1 IP yesterday) will start in Texas, Jose DeLeon called up in reserve

Erasmo Ramirez finished last night’s marathon with Minnesota, but is still scheduled to start today. He threw 82 pitches in his last start, so perhaps the 12 yesterday keeps him around 80 again. He generally keeps the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time and misses enough bats to be useful, though he has struggled with hard contact this season (39.4%). The park enhances a marginal offense (97 wRC+ vs RHP). The Rangers do get Adrian Beltre tonight, but it’s important to note that the Rays have called up Jose DeLeon and have him in reserve tonight for a potential long relief outing. The Rangers do have an implied run line of 5.1 runs (second highest on the slate), so there should be some merit to some of those bats and if we’re basing it on the starter, Ramirez has held RHBs to a .289 wOBA since last season with LHBs getting to him for a .338 wOBA and 34 Hard%. LHBs Shin-Soo Choo (126 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Nomar Mazara (112 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP career), Rougned Odor (103 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Joey Gallo (103 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP since 2015) would all seem solid plays as the Rays don’t really have an arm that can come in and dominate LHBs in long relief.

No weather concerns in any of the evening MLB games

Kevin is on the move today, so the Weather page has not been updated for a late forecast, but he did recently tweet that there are “No weather concerns in any of the evening MLB games.”

Ricky Nolasco has allowed multiple HRs in seven of 10 starts with 12% Barrels/BBE

Ricky Nolasco has some great peripherals with a 23.8 K% over the last month that may lead some players in his direction, but he’s been a perennial under-performer, who allows way too much hard contact. Even with a pitcher’s park to call home, he’s allowed multiple HRs in seven of 10 starts. He has a 37.7 Hard%, his 89.4 mph aEV is second highest on the board, and his 12% Barrels/BBE is worst. That said, Atlanta’s 3.8 implied runs is second lowest on the slate. Without their top hitter, there’s really not a scary bat in this lineup, but Nolasco does have a reverse split (RHBs .338 wOBA, 36.1 Hard%), which could make Matt Kemp (110 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since last season) an interesting play tonight. Kemp is actually the only one of the first seven hitters with a wRC+ below 100 over the last week.

RH Rays offer affordable options against Martin Perez (RHBs .334 wOBA since 2016) in Texas

Martin Perez may pique some interest against a lineup with a 27.7 K% against LHP on this slate, but he has just 6.8 K-BB% on the season in a tough park, while RHBs have a .334 wOBA adn 33.1 Hard% against him since last season. What Tampa Bay offers is affordable bats with the platoon advantage as several positions where players may want to save salary. While it’s unfortunate seeing Tim Beckham (100 wRC+, .173 ISO vs LHP since 2015) batting seventh, he still offers value as SS for less than $3K on this slate. Steve Souza (90 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP since 2015) gains value in the leadoff spot and brings in a 254 wRC+ (fifth best in baseball) with a 46.7 Hard% with three HRs over the last week. Rickie Weeks (123 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be particularly useful as a third OF bat on FanDuel ($2.5K), but is below $3K on DraftKings as well, where he’s First Base eligible. Evan Longoria (118 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs around $1K less than Josh Donaldson on either site. If paying up for Stroman, an affordable RH stack of Rays could compliment a Toronto stack.

Lisalverto Bonilla has allowed five HRs in 23.1 innings, faces Toronto lineup at full strength

A full strength Toronto offense has the highest implied run line on the late slate (5.27) facing Lisavlerto Bonilla. After a SwStr above 14% in each of his first two starts, he dropped down to 3.8% in his most recent and has now allowed five HRs in 23.1 IP with 8.1% Barrels/BBE. While his hard hit rates are not that high (LHBs 30.4%, RHBs 25%), LHBs have hammered him for a .426 wOBA this year due to a 0.0 K-BB%. RHBs have just a .315 wOBA, but Josh Donaldson (152 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jose Bautista (140 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both top overall projected bats on the slate (RotoGrinders Player Projections) along with Kendrys Morales (114 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 206 wRC+ over the last week. Justin Smoak (104 wRC+ .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a viable pivot in stacks.

Jeremy Hellickson does not allow a lot of hard contact, but has just a 9.7 K% this year

Jeremy Hellickson has surpassed two strikeouts just twice this season with a high of five in 10 starts, making him unusable in a daily fantasy sense. His 4.28 is still well below his 5.59 SIERA due to a .22 BABIP. The issue in attacking him with offensive players is that he’s still managing contact fairly well, though LHBs are up to a 31% hard hit rate against him this season. With that much contact allowed (7.2 SwStr%), Giancarlo Stanton (117 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still probably one of your top OF options against a pitcher who struggles to strike batters out (9.7 K%). Justin Bour (125 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHPs since 2015) has been hammering the ball (194 wRC+, 56.3 Hard% last seven days), but has now seen his price rise significantly ($4.8K on DraftKings). With just 32.3 GB% against LHBs since last season, Christian Yelich (131 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP since 2015) becomes more viable as well. All three, along with Marcell Ozuna (96 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015) have the power to hit the ball out of a difficult park. The Marlins are projected for the third highest run total on the slate (4.96).

Tigers have just a 96 wRC+, but a major league leading 41.9 Hard% vs RHP

Jason Hammel did look decent last time out in Yankee Stadium of all places, he’s allowed seven HRs in his last five starts and did not strike out a single Yankee in Kansas City two starts back. He’s turned into more of an extreme fly ball pitcher this year (43%), which is fine in this large park, but it is not a negative overall run environment. The Tigers have been surprisingly below average against RHP (96 wRC+, 23.8 K%), but do have an impressive 10.3 BB% and 26.3 Hard% against them and have had some major players in and out of the lineup this year due to nagging injuries. Tonight, they’re minus just Ian Kinsler. While LHBs have a higher wOBA (.336 to .318) against Hammel since last season, batters from both sides have made hard contact on 32% of batted balls. Additionally, his 88.7 mph aEV is one of the highest marks on the slate tonight. J.D. Martinez (142 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is expensive, but may be the top bat in the Detroit lineup at this point. Miguel Cabrera (150 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains viable at one of the few strong positions on the slate. Alex Avila (141 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since last season) has the highest rate of contact above 95 mph (63.2%) in the league this year, but Andrew Romine (81 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) is the only batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 90 (131) over the last week among the first eight batters in the lineup tonight, though all three of the previously mentioned Tigers have a hard hit rate above 40% in that span, along with Victor Martinez and Justin Upton.