DFS Alerts
New OAK lineup: Canha, Vogt, Lowrie, K. Davis, Alonso, Healy, Phegely, Joyce, Rosales
After previously confirming their lineup for today’s game against the New York Yankees earlier this morning, the Oakland Athletics have decided to completely reshuffle their batting order, which can be seen above or on the RotoGrinders Starting Lineups Page. The primary difference of note beside the actual batting order is that Trevor Plouffe is no longer in the Athletics lineup and has been replaced by Stephen Vogt.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Starting Lineups Page
STL-COL the only noteworthy game in Saturday's evening weather forecast
It’s ultimately a great night for baseball across the Majors for Saturday’s late 5-game slate. The only game of note comes to us in the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, where the weather risk is currently classified as YELLOW/GREEN for the slight chance of a delay from storms currently clearing out in the area. Pitchers at Coors Field should typically be avoided regardless of weather, but obviously, hitters from this contest remain firmly in play since there is no risk of a postponement. Be sure to check out David’s (our fantastic occasional weekend fill-in meteorologist) full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow David Wolter on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @DavidWolter1.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
The Astros' implied team total of 4.8 runs checks-in as the highest team total outside of Coors Field
After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has begun to come back down to earth in his last few outings, pitching past the fifth inning just once in his last five starts. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a naturally righty-heavy Houston Astros squad that have several lefty mashers to its name. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 21.9%, a substantial decrease after his unsustainable start to the year, while his walk rate has ballooned to 14.0% in no time. Miley’s 50.4% groundball rate versus righties is still above-average but is not enough to deter us from Astros bats considering he is allowing a 23.9% line drive rate and hard contact 34.5% of the time. The Houston hitters are easily the top place to look for offense outside of Coors Field, with essentially every right-handed hitter in play this evening. George Springer (150 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .282 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Jose Altuve (138 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .203 ISO vs LHP since 2016), and Evan Gattis (129 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) own the best overall skill sets in the Astros lineup versus left-handed pitching, while Marwin Gonzalez (.195 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Carlos Correa should not go overlooked, even with Correa’s less than stellar surface numbers against southpaws the past two seasons. He is due for serious positive regression in those categories given his batted ball profile and 18.8% strikeout rate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Correa, Wade Miley Dallas Keuchel has notched a career-high 10.5% SwStr% through nine starts
Outside of one or two subpar outings, Dallas Keuchel has looked like his former Cy Young self, sporting a 1.84 ERA and a 2.99 SIERA, which ranks seventh-best in the Majors. Even though there is more than a full run difference between Keuchel’s ERA and SIERA (typically a cause for concern), it’s important to note that hard-hit numbers are not factored into SIERA, which explains why his ERA can be expected to remain substantially lower if he is able to maintain anywhere near a 20.8% hard hit rate through the remainder of the season. Keuchel’s 16.0% hard hit rate to left-handed batters and 21.7% hard hit rate versus righties are remarkably elite numbers, so it’s not all that surprising that he is outperforming his SIERA by more than run. Tonight, Keuchel is set to face off with with a Baltimore Orioles squad that strike out 24.0% of the time and lack any significant power against left-handed pitching, with a middling .152 ISO. Clearly, the upside and safety are present for Keuchel in this matchup at home, and even if Keuchel allows a home run or two, which seems like more of an issue than it really is given his high 19.4% HR/FB rate, he should still be able to post a strong outing. Additionally, his fantastic 67.1% groundball rate enables him to limit potential damage and pitch deeper into games, effectively raising his floor and ceiling, and puts him firmly in line as the top starting pitching option on tonight’s slate. Despite high ownership, Keuchel should be the primary target for our lineups in both cash games and tournaments alike.
As reported by: FanGraphs Danny Salazar's 32.9% K% checks-in as the highest among SP on the early slate
Danny Salazar comes into this afternoon’s home matchup with the Kansas City Royals in less than ideal form, allowing five earned runs in two of his last three outings. However, the matchup he draws today against Kansas City could not be much better, as they rank 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching and own a non-threatening .151 ISO as a team that is complemented by an exploitable 21.7% strikeout rate. More importantly, the Royals have a low 6.6% walk rate on the year which should, theoretically, allow Salazar to pitch deeper into the game if is control is even partially on point, something he has struggled with recently. This evidenced by his longest individual outing lasting just 6.1 innings through nine starts in the 2017 campaign. The walks and ability to pitch deep into games are always the primary concerns when considering rostering Salazar, but the control issues should be somewhat mitigated by this free-swinging Royals lineup, making him the most intriguing high-end starting pitching option on the early slate once you bring projected ownership into the equation. Salazar clearly possesses just as much upside, if not more, than any other pitcher on the mound Saturday afternoon, and he may fall to fourth or even fifth behind Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and Marco Estrada in terms of ownership. Considering matchup and strikeout upside, that is enough to bring Salazar into the conversation for large field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs SD-WAS the only noteworthy game in Saturday's early weather forecast
It’s ultimately a great afternoon for baseball across the Majors for Saturday’s early 10-game slate (8-game slate on FanDuel for some unknown reason). The only game of note comes to us in the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals, where the weather risk is currently classified as YELLOW/GREEN for the slight chance of a delay from scattered showers in the area. Obviously, hitters from this contest remain firmly in play, but if in search of additional reasons to fade Stephen Strasburg on the early slate, a slight chance of a mid-game delay seems reasonable enough. Be sure to check out David’s (our fantastic occasional weekend fill-in meteorologist) full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow David Wolter on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @DavidWolter1.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Michael Fulmer and Tyler Danish will start Game 1 of DET-CHW doubleheader, Buck Farmer and Derek Holland start Game 2
The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox will have their second crack in as many days to complete a day-night doubleheader they previously had scheduled to be completed on Friday, but due to more rain, were unable to do so. Additionally, the teams have shuffled around their starting pitchers, as Michael Fulmer and Tyler Danish will face off in Game 1 and Buck Farmer and Derek Holland go head-to-head in Game 2. This will Danish’s 2017 debut and Vegas has taken notice, currently projecting the Tigers for an implied team total of 5 runs, tied for the third-highest on the early slate.
As reported by: Dan Hayes Other tagged players: Tyler Danish, Derek Holland Three top of the order middle infielders for less than $3K on either site help player save salary tonight
While Tim Beckham might be the most popular bat on the slate because you can’t ask for much more than a $2.8K SS batting leadoff when that hitter has a 102 wRC+ against LHP since last season and that lefty has allowed RHBs a 37.5 Hard% since last season. He’s not the cheap middle infield bat in the leadoff spot though. Players would have to be a bit more bold to roster Allen Cordoba against Max Scherzer, but the San Diego leadoff man is both SS and OF eligible on DraftKings and $500 less than Beckham on either site. He does have a 141 wRC+ against RHP so far and the Washington bullpen has had some issues this year. It wouldn’t take much for him to pay off. Andres Blanco (105 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is in an even better spot against Tim Adleman (LHBs .349 wOBA career). He’s batting second and is SS eligible on FanDuel for the absolute minimum, but plays at both Second and Third Base for $700 more on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Tim Beckham, Allen Cordoba
No major weather concerns on Friday night
The first game of the Detroit/Chicago double-header was postponed, but the rain is expected to clear out for the second game (which would now be the first and only one). David, who is in for Kevin this weekend, doesn’t see any other issues aside from the slight possibility of a short delay in Boston (vs Seattle). All other games are graded GREEN tonight with no significantly abnormal wind issues either. Read the full report on the Weather page and follow David on Twitter (@DavidWolter1) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Tonight's most popular hitter may be a cheap SS in the leadoff spot
With several expensive pitchers on the board and several offenses projected for at least five runs, including a game at Coors, maybe it’s not a surprise that Tim Beckham is projected to be the most popular batters on the slate. He costs just $2.8K on either site and is batting leadoff against a pitcher who allows a ton of hard contact (Hector Santiago). In fact, it’s a smart play and probably not one players should be overly concerned about fading. Joey Votto grabs a high Contrarian Rating (ContR) on both sites. First Base is generally loaded and Votto (168 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a solid pitcher (Aaron Nola) in a spot where players would likely only be using him as a one off and might prefer their First Baseman as part of a middle of the order stack. On the mound, Max Scherzer (32.2 K%) is expected to be in twice as many lineups as any other pitcher and it’s a tough fade when he’s facing the Padres, especially considering that St Louis bats are not priced up so much for Coors that you may even be able to fit a few of them in the same lineup with the top pitcher. However, there are several starting pitchers with elite strikeout rates tonight and Scherzer doesn’t even have the top rate on the board. That belongs to Jacob deGrom (32.3 K%). Eduardo Rodriguez has a 21.1 K-BB% over the last month and is projected for just 5% ownership on FanDuel. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, Eduardo Rodriguez Khris Davis leads the majors with 25 Barrels, RHBs have a .440 wOBA against Tanaka this year
While everybody was talking about Aaron Judge (22 Barrels, 52 BBEs above 95 mph), Miguel Sano (20 Barrels, 53 BBEs above 95 mph) and Ryan Zimmerman (21 Barrels, 67 BBEs above 95 mph), it’s actually Khris Davis who has taken over the major league lead in Barrels this season. His 25 Barrels are three more than any other player at this point with 55.9% (65) of his batted balls over 95 mph (fifth). It may be a negative offensive and power environment in Oakland that keeps him in relative obscurity, but he transitions to one of the most power friendly parks in baseball tonight. Though Yankee Stadium favors LH power extensively, RH power still has an advantage in that park to most areas. Davis may be in a better spot than players realize tonight. He’s been better against same handed pitching (126 wRC+, .283 ISO since 2015), while Masahiro Tanaka has allowed RHBs a .440 wOBA with seven HRs already this season and has shown little platoon split throughout his career.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka Eduardo Rodriguez (21.1 K-BB% last 30 days) could be under-appreciated in a decent spot tonight
Eduardo Rodriguez has been striking out batters all season. He’s gone six straight starts with at least six innings (eight in his last start) with no more than three runs. His 27.8 K% probably has some stealth on this board. He’s also done tremendous work on his walk rate. After walking 12 of his first 70 batters, he’s walked just six of his last 122 (4.9%), giving him a 21.1 K-BB% over the last 30 days (tied for 10th in baseball). The 32 GB% in Fenway might be a concern, but he’s handled contact well (26.8 Hard%, 86.6 mph aEV). Seattle has been surprisingly awful. They now have a bottom five wRC+ against LHP (73) despite a 7.7 K-BB% due to poor contact quality (5.5 HR/FB, 4.4 Hard-Soft%). They are also last in wRC+ (41) as a team over the last week (16.5 K-BB%, 6.0 HR/FB). Additionally, they are 21st in sOPS+ (96) against fly ball pitchers, while the forecast calls for another chilly night in Boston with temperatures not expected to reach 60 degrees during the game.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits RotoGrinders Player Projections top bats spread out among several teams tonight
Despite the game at Coors tonight, the top seven overall projected batters reside on seven different teams according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. It’s no surprise that Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top overall bat on either site with the two best players in the game (Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) following. Michael Conforto and Charlie Blackmon trade the fourth and fifth spots on either site. Carpenter is actually the least expensive of these bats on either site, also making the top projected value on DraftKings (2.56 Pt/$/K), while Evan Longoria and Justin Upton share that honor on FanDuel (3.79 Pt/$/K). For players who want to save money and go more contrarian with their pitcher, Aaron Nola projects as a top three value on either site for around $8K against a surprisingly average Cincinnati offense (99 wRC+ on the road, 102 wRC+ vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Charlie Blackmon, Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, Aaron Nola LH Cleveland & RH Chicago bats have high exit velocities against Kennedy & Boyd
The top BvP HR totals come against Matt Cain, whom Matt Kemp has homered four times off of and Brandon Phillips has taken deep three times. This information is so far out-dated though that Statcast has only recorded a total of three BBEs against Cain for both batters combined. All three players were once perennial All-Stars, while only Matt Kemp shows occasional glimpses of the player he once was (at least offensively). In a power suppressing park in San Francisco (though worse for LHBs), this information doesn’t do players much good tonight. There is some interesting exit velocity information tonight, especially against Ian Kennedy and Matt Boyd. For Cleveland, Jason Kipnis (95.2), Jose Ramirez (93) and Carlos Santana (99.5) all have high aEVs against Ian Kennedy with at least 10 BBEs. Jose Abreu (97), Todd Frazier (94.8), and Avisail Garcia (94.2) all exceed a 94 mph aEV on at least 10 BBEs against Matt Boyd.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Avisail Garcia, Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Matt Cain, Matthew Boyd, Ian Kennedy Max Scherzer nearly breaks the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor with a 10.08 projection tonight
Max Scherzer (32.2 K%) should be a beast against the Padres (84 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs RHP) tonight. Not only is he the top overall projected arm tonight according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but he also checks in as the fourth best projected value on either site. His 10.08 strikeout projection is one of the highest rates the Daily K Predictor has ever spit out, dwarfing an 8.96 K projection for Chris Archer that would be the lead on almost any other night. Jacob deGrom also checks in at a health 7.53 Ks. His 32.3 K% very slightly edges Scherzer overall, but could suffer a bit against the Pirates, who have a league low 17.9 K% vs RHP. There are a number of elite strikeout rates on the board tonight, as players could even go cheaper with Alex Wood (29.9 K% vs the Cubs) or Eduardo Rodriguez (27.8 K% vs the Mariners). While Wood has also dominated contact with a 67.6 GB% to go along with a 20.4 Hard% (1.1% Barrels/PA), Eduardo Rodriguez has lowered his walk rate to generate a 21.1 K-BB% over the last 30 days, tied for the 10th best mark in the majors with Clayton Kershaw.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Chris Archer, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jacob deGrom, Alex Wood