DFS Alerts
Risk in SF-STL game decreased to YELLOW in Saturday's latest MLB weather forecast
The rain delay risk in St. Louis for the game between the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals has been decreased to YELLOW from the YELLOW/ORANGE listed in Kevin Roth’s afternoon weather update. In fact, Kevin is fairly confident this contest plays through without a delay but is leaving the game classified as YELLOW for the small possibility of a pop-up shower during the game, though rain is not expected until later in the evening. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Mike Pelfrey owns a -3.3% K-BB% versus LHB through five starts this season
Mike Pelfrey has yet to have that signature blowup outing to begin his 2017 campaign but has consistently giving up runs and issuing free passes, evidenced by his inability to make it out the fifth inning in all but one start. Pelfrey strikes out hitters from both sides of the plate at a sub-10% rate, putting everyone in the Seattle Mariners lineup in play, though lefties are the preferred targets, as Pelfrey typically does an above-average job at keeping the ball on the ground (59.2% GB% in 2016) and limiting hard contact (26.3% HH%) to right-handed batters. However, last season against lefties, Pelfrey registered groundballs at a 45.3% rate with a 35.9% hard hit rate. Basically, Pelfrey cannot strike out left-handed batters and allows them to crush the baseball on a consistent basis. With Robinson Cano on the disabled list, Ben Gamel (168 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .191 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (140 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are the clear top targets in this Seattle lineup, while Nelson Cruz (159 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP) can always get ahold of one against any pitcher, let alone a starting pitcher of Pelfrey’s caliber. Outside of that, hitters like Guillermo Heredia and Mike Freeman can be considered as salary-saving options to round out a Mariners stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ben Gamel, Nelson Cruz, Guillermo Heredia, Mike Freeman, Mike Pelfrey Zack Wheeler poised for positive regression to his 16.1% K% vs RHB in matchup with righty-heavy Angels lineup
Zack Wheeler is in search of his third consecutive quality start as he faces off with an exploitable Los Angeles Angels lineup this evening. Wheeler has picked up right where he left off in his last full season in the Majors against right-handed batters, although his strikeout rate is much lower than you’d expect, but his 55.1% groundball and 29.0% hard hit rates fall right in line with his career numbers. The low 16.1% strikeout rate to righties in 2017 is likely just fluky due to the small sample size, as Wheeler owns a 22.8% career strikeout right versus right-handed batters. A big issue for Wheeler has always been left-handed batters, but his strikeout rate has ballooned to 29.9% thus far this season, though this is also likely fluky due to sample size, and his 9.7% walk rate, below-average 42.5% groundball rate, and high 45.0% hard hit rate do not indicate that type of success against lefties going forward. The good news for Wheeler is that he only has to deal with three left-handed bats in this Angels lineup, and one of them being Cliff Pennington, who remains nothing more than an end of the bench utility player that lacks any type of hitting skills we need to be overly concerned about. Wheeler’s upside is not massive, but the matchup and price tag across the industry are more than fair. Considering the Angels rank 24th in wOBA and 25th in ISO versus right-handed pitching, Wheeler is a good bet for a solid outing Saturday night at home.
As reported by: FanGraphs Only minor rain concerns in Saturday's latest MLB weather forecast following MIL-CHC and KC-MIN postponements
The team officials in both Chicago and Minnesota made our lives that much easier by postponing their games this afternoon with plenty of advanced notice. With these two aforementioned contests already being called due to rain, there is very little to worry about in the remaining games on the Early slate. The highest risk in any particular game comes to us in the matchups between the Colorado Rockies-Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals-Atlanta Braves with each game currently classified as YELLOW. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Saturday's game between KC-MIN postponed due to rain
This afternoon’s game between the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins has officially been postponed due to rain. The teams have already scheduled a traditional doubleheader for tomorrow to make up for the aforementioned canceled game. Obviously, it is imperative to remove any and all Royals and Twins players from your daily fantasy lineups, as they will not accrue fantasy points today.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Minnesota Twins Saturday's game between MIL-CHC postponed due to rain
This afternoon’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs has officially been postponed due to rain. There has yet to be a makeup date announced for the aforementioned canceled game. Obviously, it is imperative to remove any and all Brewers and Cubs players from your daily fantasy lineups, as they will not accrue fantasy points today.
As reported by: Carrie Muskat Most of the best cheap bats appear in top projected lineups
If players are looking for cheap bats tonight, and you may be with some expensive pitching out there, there’s not a lot of good news because the least expensive, competent bats with decent lineup spots appear in the top projected offenses tonight. Consider that players stacking Diamondbacks against Jered Weaver are likely already going to have some Gregor Blanco ($3K DK, $2.4K FD) and David Peralta ($3.7K DK, $2.7K FD). Tyler Collins ($3.2K DK, $2.6 FD) and Alex Avila ($3.2K DK, $3K FD) are projected to be among the most popular bats of the night and have the weather to worry about too. Perhaps some RH Dodger bats may provide some salary relief when that lineup comes out, but daily fantasy players appear to have their work cut out for them in terms of staying within the salary cap.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, Tyler Collins, Alex Avila
Several spots appear risky in Kevin's evening update
Kevin leads with ORANGE in his updates for both Baltimore (vs Toronto) and St Louis (vs San Francisco) in his evening update. Baltimore is more likely to be a bit of a mess throughout, while St Louis may be able to start and then have to race against the incoming threat. Cincinnati (vs Colorado) could be another trouble spot where radar and forecasts don’t agree. There’s also some lingering rain risk in Detroit (vs Texas) and potential for a late start in Pittsburgh (vs Philadelphia). It might be near impossible to avoid all of these spots, but players should at least be aware of the risk and be very cautious with pitchers in these games at the very least. Read Kevin’s full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on this very busy night.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Detroit bats becoming more popular with ownership projection update
Ownership projections have updated (as they do throughout the evening) and Detroit bats appear to be gaining in popularity, with Alex Avila (batting cleanup) and Tyler Collins (batting second) now projected to be among the most popular bats on the slate. Pitcher projections are now available as well. There’s no surprise there with Chris Sale and Alex Wood likely to be in more lineups than any other pitcher. Guys with 30 to 40% strikeout rates are popular, but there are also competent arms like Luis Severino and Charlie Morton with strikeout upside, who may now go under-owned. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Tyler Collins, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Alex Wood, Luis Severino Chris Sale aims to tie MLB record with his eighth consecutive double-digit strikeout game
If looking at results and advanced metrics, Chris Sale has been the best pitcher in Major League Baseball this season by a wide margin. Tonight he’ll take the mound in search of his eighth consecutive start with double-digit strikeouts against an Oakland Athletics squad that ranks sixth-worst in the Majors with a 23.7% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching. While the Athletics possess some power and are basically an average offense against southpaws outside of the strikeouts, it’s tough to find any reason to dislike Sale this evening. He remains in a class of his own and has exhibited almost no weakness in any aspect of his game this season, evidenced by a 2.18 SIERA, 38.8% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, and 16.1% swinging strike rate. Clearly, Sale brings dominant upside to the mound each and every start and has managed to pitch past the seventh inning in all but one start this season, including at least eight innings in three of his last five outings. There isn’t much of case to be made for fading Sale tonight, even on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings, in a matchup where he receives the added benefit of facing off against the team that has struck out the sixth-most against southpaws this season. Sale clearly stands far and above as the top pitching option on the entire slate, meaning he is highly likely to post the highest pitching score on the night, and even with the high ownership he’ll absorb, it still probably won’t be as high as it truly should be in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs No single batter projected to be in more than 15% of lineups tonight.
Without an overwhelmingly highly projected offense tonight (no game at Coors) ownership projections are fairly varied tonight. No single batter has an expectation of more than 15% of lineups on either site. Three of the four who are potentially even that popular reside in the Arizona lineup (Goldschmidt, Lamb, and Peralta) with Jay Bruce invading the top of the board on DraftKings as well. Detroit bats may be popular as well against Nick Martinez, but there doesn’t appear to be any particular batter players should be concerned about fading due to popularity. If looking for a potential contrarian play, Jose Bautista has some great numbers against Chris Tillman (4 HRs, high aEV) and is projected for just 5% of lineups on either site tonight. Premium subscribers can see potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, David Peralta Conditions in Minnesota (cold, wind blowing in) could favor pitching
As the rest of the country heats up, Detroit and MInnesota are left behind in a chill. Temperatures in both parks are expected to remain the mid-50’s throughout the games, but the game between Royals and Twins adds an additional element with a bit of a breeze blowing in from CF at 10 mph. It’s not a massive game changer and probably not enough to keep Miguel Sano in the park if he gets a hold of one, but could hinder the carry for two pitchers (Nate Karns and Hector Santiago) who have had issues with hard contact and HRs. The favorable conditions make Karns especially attractive with a career low walk rate (7.7%) and coming off 22 strikeouts (48 BF) over his last two starts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Hector Santiago, Miguel Sano RotoGrinders Player Projections top value bat is David Peralta tonight
Without a game at Coors tonight and only one offense projected for more than five runs it’s not a single offense that dominates the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but the stronger or middle parts of several lineups in favorable spots tonight. That includes Washington (Harper, Murphy vs Dickey), Arizona (Lamb, Goldschmidt, Peralta vs Weaver) and Colorado (Blackmon, Arenado vs Bonilla) with top overall projected bats tonight. Peralta, if healthy (he’s missed the last few games), also projects as a clear top value on either site (2.71 Pt/$/K on DraftKings, 4.81 Pt/$/K on FanDuel). Chris Sale is projections as the clear to arm tonight, though Alex Wood and Jacob deGrom also forecast strongly. Wood may also be the top value on FanDuel (4.68 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Alex Wood, Jacob deGrom, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy Alex Wood has a 62.8 GB% this year in addition to 33.1 K%.
Alex Wood is making news because of his tremendous 33.1 K%. While his 12.1 SwStr% is a career high for a pitcher never in double-digits, it may not support such a strikeout spike. That said, he could lose a full touchdown off that strikeout rate and still exceed expectations, partially because many of the batters he isn’t striking out are pounding it into the ground. His 62.8 GB% is also a career high with a career low 22.1 Hard%. He’s ceding what Statcast calls Barrels on just 1.4% of PAs. While the Marlins are proficient against LHP (20.3 HR/FB) and both Stanton (186 wRC+, .427 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Ozuna (144 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since 2015) can be interesting plays tonight, the Marlins further have an 85 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers, a bottom third mark in the league. Again, Ozuna (229 sOPS+, six HRs) and Stanton (208 sOPS+, four HRs) have been the only proficient bats against ground ball pitchers. J.T. Realmuto (107 sOPS+) is the only other Marlin with an sOPS+ above 86 against heavy ground ball pitchers.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna Rays are likely to get into bullpen early and play matchups against Yankees
Erasmo Ramirez has done a fine job (15.6 K-BB%) mostly out of the pen this year. He’s started just one game, almost exactly a month ago, in which he threw 66 pitches. Expect no more than five innings, at best, tonight. This means the Yankees are likely to face a lot of the Tampa Bay bullpen. This is not necessarily a bad thing as the Rays’ relievers are middle of the road (4.02 ERA, 3.84 FIP). Former Yankee Chase Whitley (16.9 K%) appears to be the longer outing guy and has held LHBs to a .182 wOBA. The key point is that the Rays will likely be playing for advantageous matchups early in this game. Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP) is still a high upside bat, regardless.
Other tagged players: Erasmo Ramirez, Chase Whitley