DFS Alerts
Even with a likely pitch count, Joe Biagini is still too cheap on DraftKings
Joe Biagini set to make just his fourth start of the season as he takes on a boom-or-bust Milwaukee Brewers lineup on the road tonight. Biagini will be looking to bounce back after being roughed up in his previous start against the Atlanta Braves, allowing six runs, five of them earned, in just four innings pitched. The good news is the Biagini’s skills he exhibited in bullpen held up well through his first two starts, pitching a combined nine scoreless innings. Most pitchers moving from the bullpen to the rotation will typically see some sort of regression to their advanced stats, but a 22.0% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate, and 56.8% groundball rate are extremely appealing at his minuscule $4.6K salary on DraftKings this evening. The one drawback with Biagini is that his innings are likely to be limited once again after throwing just 52, 68, and 67 pitches in his first three starts. However, if he can work his way through five or six innings, that should be plenty to pay off his ridiculously low salary. While innings are an obvious risk for Biagini, the matchup with a Brewers squad that ranks third in ISO against right-handed pitching and third-worst in strikeout rate is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward tournament play. However, Biagini’s groundball ability should help counteract the Brewers power to some extent and puts him in perfect position to be paired with likes of Clayton Kershaw as an SP2 in tournaments while still being able to afford some quality bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Astros set to shine against Jordan Zimmermann
It’s not often that we’ll be aiming to stack against a pitcher on a $110 million dollar deal, but Jordan Zimmermann’s struggles with the Tigers make him a prime candidate to pick on if you’re trying to swerve slightly away from chalk this evening. The Diamondbacks and Red Sox are arguably in better spots, but they’ll also carry higher ownership percentages with similar expectations in terms of overall upside. Zimmermann hasn’t had success against hitters from either side of the plate – he’s allowing a .396 wOBA to LHs and a .389 mark to RHs, with a HR/9 rate over 2.00 against hitters from both sides. His GB% sits under 30% against hitters from both sides and he’s been getting absolutely crushed by lefties to start the year with an absurdly high 39.4 Hd-Sft% (20.0 Hd-Sft% vs. RHs). Zimmermann is actually allowing far more line drives to lefties than ground balls, which isn’t a good method for success. Add in the fact that Zimmermann simply can’t miss bats (14.0 K%) and you have a very nice recipe for underowned upside with the Astros. Houston’s top two bats – Springer and Altuve – are both right-handed, but both are top plays at their respective positions even without the platoon advantage. Given Zimmermann’s poor batted ball data when facing lefties, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran and Marwin Gonzalez are all very strong dollar per point targets and all three can be utilized in Houston stacks with one (or more) of the RH bats attached.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Jordan Zimmermann, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez
Taylor Motter replaces Danny Valencia in the Mariners lineup
Motter is replacing Valencia at first base and in the batting order. Valencia is dealing with a wrist issue that must have flared up this afternoon – it’s still unclear whether it will cause him to miss any time beyond today.
As reported by: Bob Dutton Other tagged players: Danny Valencia Andrew Cashner somehow sports a 2.45 ERA, despite a -1.2% K-BB% and 5.94 SIERA
Andrew Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Boston Red Sox in search of his fifth straight quality start, which is absurd to think about given his terrible 5.94 SIERA on the season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are the low 11.5% strikeout rate and high 12.7% walk rate, which are a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 2.45 ERA that is mostly driven by a low BABIP and his ability to limit hard contact to the tune of a 28.2% rate. It’s obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, it’s an even greater guarantee that his success against left-handed hitters will not continue. He still has the low strikeouts, high line drive (23.4% LD%) and fly ball rates (42.2% FB%), an average 31.3% hard hit rate, and just a .230 BABIP. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous streak of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to break down, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Mitch Moreland (114 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (114 wRC+, .346 wOBA vs RHP) the top two Red Sox lefties to target. Meanwhile, Jackie Bradley Jr. (120 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2016) appears to be breaking out of his early-season slump and is worth a look in tournaments or part of a stack. The trickier side of this matchup is the Boston right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 60.0% groundball rate and just a 25.0% hard hit rate to right-handed hitters, which are skills he’s exhibited in the past and may actually be sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the possibility of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to the Red Sox right-handed hitters, outside of Mookie Betts (135 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP) of course, to just tournaments on Tuesday’s slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Andrew Cashner The struggle is real for Matt Harvey
Harvey’s success in 2013 and 2015 (he missed all of 2014) seems like a distant memory. He’s fallen off a cliff this season and hasn’t shown much to suggest that a turnaround may be on the way. Through 45.1 IP, Harvey has already allowed 11 HRs on the year – five to lefties and six to righties – and his strikeout numbers have really fallen off, as his K% against hitters from both sides sits below 18%. Harvey has his lowest K% of his career this season along with his highest BB% (11.0%), and his 6.41 FIP is far and away the highest mark he’s had to date (his 3.47 FIP last season was the worst of his career up until 2017). The one area where Harvey may be getting a little unlucky is in the HR department – he owns a HR/FB ratio over 20% against both right and left-handed hitters. He also isn’t doing a great job of limiting hard contact, but his batted ball data isn’t much different than last season – the main difference between the two seasons is the decreased strikeout numbers and increasing control problems. The Padres aren’t going to be a popular stack this evening, but they do have appeal as a contrarian option on a full slate and the cheap bats towards the top of the order can be utilized as one-offs or salary saving plays. Given that Harvey has been dealing with HR issues and Wil Myers has already blasted 10 long balls off RHP (.307 ISO vs. RHP on the year), he’s a very nice against-the-grain play at a loaded 1B spot. Speaking of HR upside, Ryan Schimpf is a nightly threat to leave the yard against RHP, as that is where he pulls the large majority of his fantasy value (.253 ISO vs. RHP with a 33.3% K-rate). Manuel Margot, Yangervis Solarte and Hunter Renfroe also have GPP appeal.
Other tagged players: Matt Harvey, Ryan Schimpf, Yangervis Solarte, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe 15 game MLB slate on tap on Tuesday. It's Clayton Kershaw Day!
There is a full 15 game slate for MLB DFS players to attack today with Clayton Kershaw the obvious top pitching option facing the St. Louis Cardinals. The game has the lowest run total of the day by far (7) and the Dodgers are substantial (-255 as of time of this alert) favorites. He’s expensive but should be well worth it. Other top pitching options to consider on the slate are Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers while Danny Duffy gets another chance at taking on the Yankees after dominating them last week. Rick Porcello is in play and usually Jon Lester would be as well (he still might be) but concerns of winds at Wrigley make that risky.
That game in Wrigley would usually be one to focus lineups on with the winds potentially blowing out but with two top pitchers in Lester and Johnny Cueto on the mound, you can make a very strong case for fading (and Lester is a strong contrarian option at pitcher). The teams to target appear to be the Diamondbacks at home against Dylan Covey and the Red Sox at home against Andrew Cashner. Games with stacking potential and high Vegas run totals of nine or better include the Twins at Orioles, Pirates at Braves, and Blue Jays at Brewers.
Risk lowered in PIT-ATL game to ORANGE/YELLOW in Monday's latest MLB weather forecast
The overall postponement risk in the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves looks to have seen some improvement from the earlier forecast, but Kevin Roth still believes that a rain delay is likely to occur. Pitching immediately carries some extra risk for the threat of a mid-game delay, though it hasn’t been confirmed, it does look as if the game will begin in a delay since it is already raining in Atlanta. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Wind blowing out at Wrigley Field (yet again) vaults the Cubs to the top offense on Monday's slate
Ty Blach is actually coming off of back-to-back solid performances in his previous two outings, allowing two earned runs or less and going at least seven innings in each start. However, this is not a trend we should expect from Blach going forward, as he is still a pitcher that owns a ridiculously low 7.6% strikeout rate on the season and just a 10.2% strikeout rate for his career. He is managing to get by with a 4.15 ERA by limiting hard contact (27.9% HH%) but a 5.63 SIERA proves that negative regression in that category is virtually guaranteed. With the wind blowing out of Wrigley Field again tonight, a matchup with a dangerous Chicago Cubs offense may just be the spot for this aforementioned regression to begin. Blach has managed a 53.8% groundball rate to left-handed batters so far in his career, but just average groundballs (46.8% GB%) and fly balls (36.9% FB%) to righties combined with the previously mentioned low strikeouts against hitters from both sides of the plate. His career sample size remains small, so it’s tough to put too much stock in his 25.2% hard hit rate to right-handed batters, but if searching for a reason to fade the Cubs bats in tournaments, that would be it, albeit flimsy. Kris Bryant (192 wRC+, .464 wOBA, .362 ISO) easily stands out as the top play from this Chicago lineup, as he has recorded a 41.3% hard hit rate versus left-handed pitching dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season. Meanwhile, Albert Almora (153 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Ben Zobrist (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP since 2016), Wilson Contreras (123 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .179 ISO vs LHP since 2016),and Addison Russell (110 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .234 ISO vs LHP since 2016) are the logical righties to accompany Bryant in a Cubs tournament stack, though don’t be afraid to go contrarian and include Anthony Rizzo (119 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2016), who traditionally hits southpaws well despite sacrificing the platoon advantage.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Ty Blach Gerrit Cole aims for his ninth consecutive quality start in matchup with Atlanta
Gerrit Cole continues to look more and more like the pitcher he was back in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, as he is set to take on a Freddie Freeman-less Atlanta Braves squad tonight on the road in search of his ninth consecutive quality start. Cole seems to be fully healthy with his fastball velocity at a career-high thus far and pitching consistent innings, putting his injury-riddled 2016 campaign far in the rear-view mirror. Cole has never been an elite strikeout pitcher but his 22.2% strikeout rate is accompanied by a 5.3% walk rate and 50.3% groundball rate that can be considered in elite territory. His groundball rate is even higher against right-handed batters while limiting hard contact to just a 24.1% rate that sets up well for this Braves offense that suddenly lacks any significant power from the left side of the plate Even though his strikeout rate leaves a bit to be desired, Cole has managed to flash strikeout-per-inning upside already this season, notching at least seven punchouts during a four-start stretch through the end of April and beginning of May. While Cole may not possess the same upside as Michael Pineda or Zack Greinke, in a matchup with a Braves lineups that will be without their best player and former MVP candidate, Cole’s floor for cash games could not be much higher, making him an ideal SP2 on DraftKings or a salary-saving option in cash games on FanDuel.
As reported by: FanGraphs Small nine-game slate in MLB tonight along with perhaps the last NBA contests of the year
It’s Monday, May 22nd and it’ll be a relatively calm night in DFS-land as only nine MLB games are scheduled to get underway with two clear choices as the top pitching options of the night in Michael Pineda of the Yankees as they host the Royals and Zack Greinke and Arizona hosting the hapless White Sox. The biggest run total of the day is in Baltimore where the Orioles will host the Twins but that could be surpassed by the Cubs game in Wrigley if the wind is blowing out as the odds makers have not yet given that game a total. Keep your eye out on that one as it’ll surely be popular if the wind is blowing out like it did last week. Gerrit Cole will also be in play facing an Atlanta team that is without their best player in Freddie Freeman.
With the conference championships winding down in the NBA (although Boston extended the series last night against Cleveland with a clutch win), tonight could be your last opportunity to enter a NBA two-game playoff slate as Golden State looks to eliminate the Spurs in Game 4 of their series. With Kawhi Leonard out for the Spurs, they’ll be hard pressed to match the high-powered Warriors who are prohibitive double-digit favorites, even on the road. That said you’re going to want to target some of the players from this game, especially if San Antonio can manage to keep it close. The usual suspects for the Warriors will be in play but be highly-owned while LaMarcus Aldridge should be the focal point of the Spurs attack.
Blustery conditions at Wrigley Field have the Cubs implied total up to 6.3 runs
After a hot start to the season, Chase Anderson has come back down to earth of late, allowing four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Anderson does own an above-average strikeout rate to left-handed batters (23.5% K%), but he induces groundballs at just a 30.4% rate while allowing hard contact 43.8% of the time. Conversely, what Anderson sacrifices in strikeout rate against right-handed batters (18.7% K%), he makes up for slightly in a 38.3% groundball and 33.3% hard hit rates. With the wind at Wrigley Field blowing out strongly to right field (gusts up to 30 MPH), this is a tremendous place look for offense on Sunday’s main slate, particularly the Chicago Cubs left-handed bats considering Anderson’s splits and direction of the wind. Anthony Rizzo (142 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .251 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the definitive top hitting option the Cubs order, while lefties like Ben Zobrist (120 wRC+, .354 wOBA vs RHP since 2016) and Kyle Schwarber (career 126 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP) find themselves in great spots as well. Additionally, rookie Ian Happ (208 wRC+, .496 wOBA, .389 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Heyward (114 wRC+, .350 wOBA vs RHP) are off to fantastic starts against righties this season, putting them firmly in play as part of a stack or even as a one-off, in Happ’s case, given his power upside. The Cubs are clearly a strong place to look for offense in cash games but in tournaments, they will likely be highly owned, giving us an opportunity to search for the same upside at lower ownership in other matchups. However, with strong winds at Wrigley, against a mediocre, fly ball pitcher, it’s tough to find the exact same upside anywhere else. Although, it’s not totally impossible to land on an offense with similar upside and matchup as Chicago this afternoon but will definitely be suboptimal.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Chase Anderson ICYMI: Jonathan Villar is batting first for Milwaukee, not Eric Sogard
Clarifying an earlier confirmed lineup error, Eric Sogard is, in fact, not in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Instead, Jonathan Villar is leading off and playing his normal second base position. Be sure to remove Sogard from your lineups.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Milwaukee Brewers
ORANGE/RED in PHI-PIT game headlines Sunday's MLB weather forecast
The game in Pittsburgh between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates is easily the game with the most weather risk, checking-in with a classification of ORANGE/RED. This means that a rain delay is all but guaranteed and a postponement is firmly in play as well. Starting pitchers should be avoided entirely, while hitters from both teams carry substantial risk anytime a RED classification is issued for a particular matchup. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jose Reyes (ribs) scratched from Mets lineup; Matt Reynolds replaces
Reyes has officially been scratched from the New York Mets lineup for today’s game against the Los Angeles Angels due to tightness on the left side of his rib cage. Matt Reynolds will now start at shortstop and bat eighth. This lineup change will bump Wilmer Flores up from the sixth spot in the order up to the two-hole, while Lucas Duda and Kevin Plawecki each slide up one spot in the lineup to sixth and seventh respectively.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo Other tagged players: Matt Reynolds Jake Junis will start for the Royals in first game of DH
Jake Junis has officially been announced as the starting pitcher for the Kansas City Royals in the first game of their standard doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins this afternoon. Junis is a right-handed pitcher with just two innings of Major League experience, so daily fantasy projections for the Twins batters are relatively unaffected, though a stack may now be more appealing in tournaments.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd