DFS Alerts
Bottom of the order Catchers may offer some cheap power tonight
Players looking to save salary tonight should probably be looking to punt Catcher more than any other position and that makes Robinson Chirinos a really interesting name despite the fact that he’s batting eighth. The upside against a pitcher who allows so much hard contact (37.1% vs RHBs since 2015) may be high enough to overcome lineup spot for the cost ($3.1K DK/$2.6K FD) Chirinos has a 135 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP since 2015 and hits in a great park in Texas tonight. Cameron Rupp (144 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another bat low in the order that could provide some cheap ($2.4K FD) power behind the dish. He and Willson Contreras (116 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) are both $3.3K on DK. Michael Conforto ($3.2K DK) and Seth Smith ($2.8K) are two very affordable, though not incredibly cheap leadoff options. Players are much less likely to want to go cheap at First Base, but Kennys Vargas mashes lefties (220 wRC+, .388 ISO since last season) and costs just $2.4K on FanDuel, batting fifth against Cole Hamels, who hasn’t been himself this year. Delino DeShields costs just $2.2K on FanDuel out of the leadoff spot for Texas, but has just an 84 wRC+, .106 ISO vs LHP since 2015. The same can be said about Jaff Decker (88 wRC+, .085 ISO vs RHP) for $2.3K on FD, $2K on DK. Although it’s not confirmed yet, stay alert for the San Diego lineup, which has some potential for cheap bats up top in a great park.
Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Willson Contreras, Michael Conforto, Jaff Decker, Kennys Vargas, Seth Smith, Delino DeShields
No games worse than YELLOW in latest MLB weather forecast
The only game with real rain concern in this morning’s MLB weather forecast was the Blue Jays-Cardinals game and it has been postponed for several hours now at the time of this writing. The highest risk in the remaining games comes to us in the Yankees-Red Sox game, but Kevin Roth only has it classified as YELLOW due to some light rain in the area and the possibility of a late start. However, the game is fully expected to play through. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Dylan Bundy, James Paxton expected to be most popular pitchers tonight
Dylan Bundy and James Paxton are now expected to be the chalk on DraftKings tonight after losing a couple of top of the board pitchers off the slate. Things appear to be more spread out on FanDuel tonight where it may not be necessary to fade any arm due to ownership concerns. Trevor Cahill and Sean Manaea each have a projected ownership rate of less than 8% on either side and each have a SwStr rate above 14% this year. Coors bats rule the board again from the offensive side, but Third Base might be a great spot to differentiate with Miguel Sano and Maikel Franco both having platoon advantages and projected to be in less than 8% of lineups on either site tonight. At First Base, Kennys Vargas is a cheap bat who smashes LHP potentially at a very low expected ownership rate. Premium subscribers can find use our Projected Ownership page to view projections for all players tonight.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: James Paxton, Trevor Cahill, Sean Manaea, Miguel Sano, Maikel Franco, Kennys Vargas Joey Gallo, Kennys Vargas have best long ball chances via RotoGrinders HR Predictor
Three batters are projected to have a projected HR rate higher than 7% according to the RotoGrinders HR Predictor. Joey Gallo is in a lefty on lefty situation, but the pitcher he is facing does allow a lot of hard contact. Gallo doesn’t often make contact, but when he does, he makes sure the ball knows who it was that punished it. He has a .237 ISO vs LHP in limited major league opportunities and hits in a great park. The number two man on the list is Kennys Vargas, who gets to hit in the same park. Cole Hamels is just a shell of his former self at this point in the season and Vargas has a career 180 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP. Austin Hedges is third on the list, another surprise. He was originally scheduled to face Taijuan Walker, but projections can only go up against Zach Godley. He has a .271 ISO vs RHP since last season. Fourth place on the list is where we see our first expected name with Nelson Cruz carrying a 6.84% projected HR rate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Joey Gallo, Austin Hedges, Nelson Cruz Favorable pitching conditions in Detroit may further enhance Paxton,
Everything was already lining up for James Paxton to be one of the top pitchers on the slate, but Kevin has also noted in his forecast winds blowing in from left-center around 10-15 mph. With the Tigers lining up entirely right-handed that could hold up a few fly balls off their bats. Yes, this may also present a bit of an issue for Nelson Cruz, but he’s still likely strong enough to overcome the breeze. Citi Field may also offer favorable conditions for Robert Gsellman and Julio Teheran with temperatures around 60 and a light breeze (5 mph) blowing in from left. Fenway is supposed to be in the 50s with a light wind blowing in (7 mph) from center, which could make it a bit less hitter friendly tonight. Texas does have a wind blowing out to right-center, but temperatures are only in the 60s and with both pitchers going from the left-hand side, it’s likely that lineups will feature more RHBs. There don’t appear to be any parks with weather conditions favoring hitters beyond original park factors tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Julio Teheran, Robert Gsellman Dylan Bundy, Texas bats project as top values via RotoGrinders Player Projections
Coors bats reign supreme atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections in terms of raw point projections. Paul Goldschmidt (141 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Mike Trout (179 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the first two non-Coors bats you’ll find. Both have interesting matchups tonight against two of the the top three SwStr rates on the board (both above 14%) tonight, though both Cahill and Manaea will occasionally allow a lot of hard contact. More troubling for Goldy is that he has just a 32.7 FB% against RHPs while Cahill has kept RHBs on the ground around 60% of the time. On FanDuel, Rangers RHBs appear the top values with DeShields ($2.2K batting leadoff), Rua ($2.1K) and Napoli (129 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP since 2015) all projecting well against Hector Santiago (.323 wOBA, 37.1 Hard% vs LHBs since 2015) in Texas tonight. On the pitching side, Dylan Bundy now projects as a top two overall pitcher and value on either site after losing Martinez and Syndergaard from the slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Ryan Rua, Delino DeShields, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout Are Braves hitters priced at a "Thor discount" in play versus Robert Gsellman?
Outside of one bad start against the Miami Marlins, Robert Gsellman, who is starting in place of Noah Syndergaard tonight, has been fairly consistent to this point in the season. He’s allowed three runs and struck out seven in each of his other two outings and may even have been a little unlucky to allow that many runs, evidenced by his .327 BABIP, 51.7% LOB% and 3.17 SIERA. This isn’t a great strikeout matchup with the Atlanta Braves, but Gsellman still possesses some solid upside for his price tag, especially on DraftKings for $6.7K, given his solid 25.3% strikeout rate and manageable 7.6% walk rate. Although, on the other hand, all the Braves hitters are priced to face Syndergaard, so they can be rostered at a significant discount in what is still obviously a much better matchup than they were originally projected. It’s tough to buy-in to any of Gsellman’s early signs of being a reverse splits starting pitcher given the limited sample size, which means that Freddie Freeman (165 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is still firmly in play as a contrarian one-off option in tournaments. However, rostering Gsellman still looks to be the optimal way to approach this matchup
Other tagged players: Robert Gsellman Trevor Cahill is now projected for the second highest strikeout total on the night slate
The RotoGrinders K Predictor loses two of its top four to a rain out and scratch tonight with another going on the day slate. That leaves James Paxton (7.2) with the top strikeout prediction on the slate and that might look even better considering the lineup the Tigers just submitted. They’ve gone entirely right-handed, while Paxton has generated a .282 wOBA against RHBs since 2015 (.357 vs LHBs). An incredibly interesting name below him is Trevor Cahill, now projected for the second highest strikeout total on the slate (6.64) and this is no mistake. He’s struck out at least six in all three starts and his 15.0 SwStr% is currently fifth highest in the majors. Best of all, he costs just $4.2K on DraftKings! Lower on the board, players can certainly consider Sean Manaea (27.4 K%, 14.3 SwStr%) against the Angels, who are striking out a bit more this year (19.9% vs LHP) and Dylan Bundy, who has just 12.1 SwStr% despite facing the Red Sox twice (16.2 K% vs RHP). He now faces an offense with 25.8 K% vs RHP (Rays). Late replacement Robert Gsellman also has a 25.3 K% at a low price.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: James Paxton, Dylan Bundy, Sean Manaea, Robert Gsellman Justin Turner has a 94.2 mph aEV (14 BBE) against Johnny Cueto
Jacoby Ellsbury has homered four times (34 PA) against Rick Porcello. While there is some out-dated information there, he does have a 90.6 mph aEV on 10 Statcast recorded BBE in this matchup. Porcello has allowed five HRs this season, but four were in one start. He has struck out Ellsbury just three times. No other batter on the night slate has homered more than twice against the pitcher they oppose tonight. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE, Justin Turner has the highest exit velocity (94.2 mph aEV – 14 BBE) against Johnny Cueto. He has one HR and two doubles in the matchup, striking out just two times in 22 PA. Players aren’t otherwise going to get a lot of help out of BvP information today.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Johnny Cueto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Rick Porcello Outfield bats rule the wRC+ leaderboard over the last week among projected starters
Outfielders rule the week’s hottest hitters list on tonight’s slate. Giancarlo Stanton is the hottest bat on the slate (373 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%, 4 HRs over the last week). He’s in a boom or bust spot against a sometimes dominant arm, who also occasionally has control (14.5 BB% this season) and long ball (13.3 career HR/FB) issues in Vince Velasquez. He’s followed by Bryce Harper (319 wRC+, 38.9 Hard%, 3 HRs) and Nelson Cruz (317 wRC+, 38.9 Hard%, 2 HRs) as the only other projected starters on the slate with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. Both are in nice spots with the former in Coors and the latter facing a lefty tonight. With a couple of high priced pitchers already off the board, players should be able to afford all three in their OF tonight. Outfielders claim the fourth (Justin Upton 293 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%, 2 HRs), fifth (Charlie Blackmon 277 wRC+, 54.2 Hard%, 4 HRs) and sixth (David Peralta 272 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, 1 HR) spots on the wRC+ leaderboard over the last week too. Only Upton can be considered in a poor spot tonight, facing James Paxton, who has better career numbers against RHBs than LHBs.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Charlie Blackmon, David Peralta Despite the two highest implied run lines, there are alternatives to Coors bats tonight
The night slate has already been thrown into chaos, down two top pitchers in Syndergaard and Martinez, and though Coors houses the two highest implied run lines tonight (Col 5.82 – Was 5.68) players must consider how to handle a ground baller (Chatwood 56.6 GB% last two calendar years) and weak contact generator (Roark 25.3 Hard% last two calendar years). While this isn’t a recommendation to fade Coors bats, it does look at a few alternatives for those who choose to do so. Outfield appears to offer the top alternatives. Nelson Cruz faces a mediocre lefty (185 wRC+, .331 ISO since 2015), which immediately makes him a strong candidate in any park, where as Detroit is fairly neutral. Michael Conforto (133 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP career) will hopefully remain in the leadoff spot. Julio Teheran is walking more batters and striking out fewer and has struggled against LHBs for a long time (.360 wOBA since 2015). Mike Trout (179 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015) faces an up and coming southpaw, but one who has struggled with hard contact occasionally (RHBs 32.7 Hard%, 17 HRs since Manaea’s call-up). Chris Davis (140 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a pitcher who has been torched by LHBs (.486 wOBA) since returning from Tommy John surgery after the Tampa Bay bullpen was worn out last night. Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .194 ISO ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a cheaper bat that should be atop that same lineup. Miguel Sano (131 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP career), Kennys Vargas (180 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP career) and Brian Dozier (121 wRC+, .251 ISO vs LHP since 2015) face a southpaw who has forgotten how to miss bats (Hamels 7.9 SwStr%) in Texas.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Seth Smith, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier Mets will not start Noah Syndergaard tonight; Robert Gsellman will get the nod
Originally the Mets were going to skip Gsellman and go to the top of their rotation with Syndergaard but they have had a change of plans and Gsellman will instead make his scheduled start tonight for the Mets. It removes one of the top pitching options from the slate – adjust your player pools accordingly with both him and Carlos Martinez not available options tonight.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo on Twitter Other tagged players: Robert Gsellman
Blue Jays-Cardinals game postponed due to expected rain storms in area
The weather forecast has led to a postponement of today’s Toronto at St. Louis game. Make sure to not roster any players from either team! They’ll make up the game on Thursday (tomorrow).
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed Royals and White Sox game should be low-scoring affair
While the Reds/Brewers game should be one targeted for offensive production on this small slate, this game is one where we will want to look to either Nathan Karns of the Royals or Jose Quintana of the White Sox as pitching options. The White Sox bring a dreadful lineup to the table and Karns has an above average K rate of nearly 25%. He is a definite GPP play as a result and is also viable as a SP2 in cash games. Quintana, on the other hand, is clearly the top arm on the slate as a sizable favorite facing one of the worst offenses in baseball this year in Kansas City. Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain are the only bats worth a look from the Royals side with Jose Abreu the only viable bat from the woeful White Sox lineup.
As reported by: Chicago White Sox official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Nate Karns, Lorenzo Cain, Jose Abreu Eric Thames and the Brewers get another crack at the visiting Reds today
With only three games in the afternoon slate, the Reds at Brewers game should be one to target in regards to bats as neither pitcher (Rookie Davis or Wily Peralta) provides much of a threat of being a shut down pitcher and the game has a run total approaching ten. Eric Thames will look to continue his impressive hot streak as he has absolutely owned the Reds thus far this season and he will be a heavily-owned option on this small slate. The rest of the top five for the Brewers order (Villar, Braun, Shaw, and Perez) are all viable options either by themselves or as part of a team stack. For the Reds, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Adam Duvall are elite options facing Peralta with Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, and Scott Schebler excellent secondary/stack options.
As reported by: Milwaukee Brewers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Joey Votto