DFS Alerts
Strikeouts are available (Scherzer 31.4 K%, deGrom 31.7 K%), but cost a premium tonight
Friday’s slate offers a board deep in pitching choices, though the cream of the crop clearly resides in Washington tonight, where Max Scherzer (31.4 K%, 15.9 SwStr%) faces off against Jacob deGrom (31.7 K%, 18.0 SwStr%). The latter has generated an unprecedented 50 swings and misses in his last two starts and actually out-paces Scherzer for the top spot on the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor today (8.36 to 7.21). Another great spot to look for strikeouts tonight is in San Francisco where Jeff Samardzija takes his 7.40 ERA up against the Padres (26.0 K% vs RHP). Samardzija has pitched in Arizona and Colorado in his two road starts, where he’s allowed four HRs. He has still generated a 27.5 K% (11.7 SwStr%) and should have more success at home against a poor offense. Players looking for a cheaper SP2 to pair with their expensive strikeout upside may have to look to below average pitchers in great matchups like Kyle Gibson ( Kansas City) or Luis Perdomo ( San Francisco), both whom keep the ball on the ground and generate a reasonable amount of swinging strike, but if it’s strikeouts you want, that’s a luxory you’ll be paying up for tonight.
Casey Lawrence has more walks than Ks, but a 63.3 GB% in eight major league innings
Casey Lawrence is a 29 year-old rookie who has walked more the 45 batters he’s faces (eight) than he’s struck out (six). He has generated a 63.3 GB% with just a 16.1 Hard% in his eight innings of work though. Theoretically, the Cardinals should punish him, as they have the second highest implied run line (4.9) on the slate, but unfamiliarity can sometimes work in the pitcher’s favor and the profile gives us confidence in not much more than walks. Regardless, virtually all St Louis bats should be in play on the small slate. The second game of a double-header necessitates a few lineup omissions, Molina, Gyorko and Diaz in this case, but also some opportunities to save salary. Greg Garcia (113 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) should make a nice infield punt play ($2.8K DK/$2.2K FD) for Chris Sale owners. Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top bat in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Greg Garcia, Casey Lawrence Will Jered Weaver's luck finally run out tonight at Chase Field?
The magician known as Jered Weaver has somehow continued to string together quality starts despite allowing an astronomical 2.74 HR/9 through his first four outings. He’s set to take the mound on the road against a powerful Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that is littered with power and speed from both sides of the plate up and down the lineup. Despite a solid ERA to this point in the season, the dreaded regression monster is bound to catch up to Weaver and his .182 BABIP and 91.6% LOB% through four starts. At this stage of his career, Weaver is nothing more than a low strikeout pitcher (13.4% K% in 2016) that allows a ton of flyballs (48.2% FB% in 2016) which, in turn, leads to well above average home run rates (1.87 HR/9 in 2016). The Diamondbacks are the clear top offense to target on tonight’s microscopic 4-game slate, evidenced by their 6.2 runs implied team total. This should lead to some massive ownership and begs the question whether they are worth a fade in tournaments in hopes Weaver is able to keep the magic going for at least one more start. Ownership concerns aside, there are several hitters from this Arizona squad that are elite options for all formats, headlined by Jake Lamb (132 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Paul Goldschmidt (129 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and A.J. Pollock (111 wRC+, .348 wOBA vs RHP since 2016). They are closely followed by teammates David Peralta (108 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Chris Herrmann (.199 ISO vs RHP since 2016) if in need of a salary-saving option at the catcher position.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Chris Herrmann, Jered Weaver
Kendall Graveman throwing sinker 90% of time, generated just two swings and misses last start
Kendall Graveman generated some excitement with a March boost in velocity, but has dropped nearly a half mile per hour in each start since his first, generating just two swinging strikes in his last start. He’s throwing his sinker 90% of the time, but his once strong ground ball rate (above 50%) is now down around league average (44%). Despite hard contact at a 36% rate this year, he’s stranded 100% of his runners with a .204 BABIP, which has kept his ERA more than two runs below his estimators. He has virtually no platoon split, so as usual with the Angels, it’s Mike Trout (172 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or nothing. In 21 career PAs though, Trout has just an 84.2 mph aEV (one HR) on 19 BBE against Graveman. Kole Calhoun (112 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 95.5 mph aEV on 15 BBE.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun Taijuan Walker is projected for second highest point and strikeout total on the night slate
Players not paying for Chris Sale tonight may see Taijuan Walker as their next best option. He’s struggled a bit early on because he’s had issues throwing strike one (53.6 F-Strike%). All of his starts have come against the Dodgers (great against RHP) and Giants (tough to strike out), but while the park remains a big negative, at least he gets to face the Padres (25.2 K% vs RHP). As an added bonus, the San Diego lineup does not appear to be at full strength tonight. Walker has the second overall projected point total on the night slate according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections and also second in the Daily K Predictor as well (6.26). If not using Walker, he has a slight reverse split since 2015 (RHBs .328 wOBA – LHBs .310 wOBA), which could favor Hunter Renfroe (117 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP career), who is also a solid bargain ($3.6K DK/$2.8K FD), and Wil Myers (116 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 68.8 Hard% over the last week. Despite the favorable hitting environment, Walker is not the most attractive target to attack with hitters tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers Delay potential in Cleveland, but no rain risk for night slate in Kevin's update
Kevin’s updated forecast does not include rain related risk for any of the four games in the night slate, though the earlier game in Cleveland (vs Houston) could see a late start. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Khris Davis (129 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2015) faces a RHP with a reverse platoon split (RHBs .348 wOBA)
Ricky Nolasco has walked just three batters this year, affording him a 14.9 K-BB% even with a below average K%, but his GB rate has dropped nearly 10 points (0.67 GB/FB) off his career rate with a 34.2 Hard%. That’s a lot of hard contact in the air and in fact, his 10 Barrels allowed this season are tied for second most in the majors. He also has a fairly significant reverse platoon split (RHBs .348 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% – LHBs .310 wOBA, 31.9 Hard% since 2015), which might explain the absence of Stephen Vogt tonight in favor of Josh Phegley. Khris Davis (129 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top rated bat in this lineup with a bit of a reverse platoon himself. He’s also one of the top projected values on DraftKings tonight ($2.7K), along with Matt Joyce (125 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since last season), who costs near the minimum on either site. Sale owners might also consider Yonder Alonso, who has been red hot over the last week (200 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%) and costs around $2.5K on either site.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Josh Phegley, Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso, Ricky Nolasco Chris Sale has dominated in a Boston uniform (38.9 K%, 15.8 SwStr%) with at least seven IP in every start
Chris Sale has been absolutely dominant in a Boston uniform. Gone are the days of pitching to contact and by missing bats at an elite rate again (38.9 K%, 15.8 SwStr%), he’s actually accomplished his originally intended goal of consistently going deeper into games. He’s gone at least seven in every start with at least 10 Ks in each of his last three. The weather is cool (mid-50s) with a slight breeze blowing in from right (8 mph), about as favorable pitching conditions as you’ll see in Boston. The Yankees have the lowest implied run line on the slate (3.0) by over half a run. Sale has the top strikeout projection on either slate (8.25) on the RotoGrinder’s Daily K Predictor, along with being the top overall projected pitcher on either site as well. Aside from ownership considerations, with the potential to be upwards of half of all lineups, there’s really no legitimate performance related reason to consider fading him or choosing any Yankee bat. Chase Headley does have two career HRs in 14 PAs against him, but with just an 85.5 mph aEV on eight BBE.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Chase Headley Benintendi, Moreland project as potential top DK values on small night slate against Tanaka
The Red Sox are right in the middle of the board, projected for almost exactly four runs tonight against Masahiro Tanaka, who has settled down over his last two outings (20.4 K%, 7.4 BB%, 59.6 GB%), after struggling through his first two. The upside isn’t what you’d like from a $9K pitcher against the Red Sox (16.2 K% vs RHP), but he may be the top overall pitcher on the board behind Sale tonight. Mookie Betts (144 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the top overall bat in the lineup against a pitcher with virtually no platoon split, though Andrew Benintendi (153 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP career) projects well, priced at just $3.7K on DraftKings and Mitch Moreland (110 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be a top DK value ($3.1K) as well, according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Several Boston bats have piled up 20 or more PAs against Tanaka over the last few years, but none have more than a single HR or three extra-base hits against him. Conditions in Boston are still expected to be very cool (mid-50s) with a bit of a breeze blowing in from RF (8 mph).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Masahiro Tanaka, Mookie Betts Dodgers and Giants game looks as though it will be a low-scoring affair
Two pitchers with significant upside in Matt Moore of the Giants and Jose Urias of the Dodgers take the mound today in San Francisco in a game that has a low run total of 7 1/2 runs. Urias has all the upside in the world with a high K rate but his problem is he will likely be limited in terms of how long he will pitch thus making him a risky option. Moore has struggled this season but has shown upside in the past. Facing a Dodgers team that struggles against southpaws though he makes for an intriguing GPP option, especially with most players likely targeting the other pitcher in this game, Carlos Martinez, or Justin Verlander. While the bats from both offenses are better left alone, you could make a case for using the right-handed bats of Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, and Yasiel Puig from the Dodgers and the right-handed bats of Hunter Pence, Christian Arroyo, and Buster Posey (especially at a particularly thin catcher position) from the Giants.
As reported by: Alex Pavlovic on Twitter Other tagged players: Julio Urias, Buster Posey, Justin Turner
Cardinals offense and Carlos Martinez top options for afternoon slate
With Noah Syndergaard scratched again, Carlos Martinez becomes the clear cut top option at SP for the early slate of games facing a weak Toronto Blue Jays offense. He’ll likely be a highly-owned option and carries a certain amount of risk as he has been highly inconsistent so there is a ton of merit to fading him. That said, the Blue Jays have a 23.9% strikeout rate and just a .124 ISO and .274 wOBA against RHP and without a DH in a NL park could be even worse. The opposing pitcher, Mat Latos, is simply put terrible and is an easy fade and an even easier target in terms of opposing hitters to utilize. Fade the Blue Jays bats and look to Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko from the Cardinals top of the order as a great way to pivot off the Coors Field game.
As reported by: Toronto Blue Jays official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko Tarp coming onto field in Detroit; delay likely but Kevin Roth believes game will play out
The tarp has come on the field in Detroit and a delay is likely. RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth believes there is not a PPD worry since they have all day to play and the rain will clear by mid-afternoon but he has upgraded the risk to ORANGE/YELLOW with strong wind gusts blowing right to left for the most part. Justin Verlander and Hisashi Iwakuma are both risks given the delay likelihood and the Seattle and Detroit offenses become a bit more appealing if the teams are going to have to go to their bullpens early and often.
As reported by: Chris McCosky on Twitter Matt Harvey gets nod in favor of Syndergaard as Mets host the Braves
As previously alerted, the Mets have scratched Noah Syndergaard and replaced him with Matt Harvey who becomes a viable SP option for the afternoon slate of games facing a weak Braves offense. There’s not a lot of strikeout upside, however, so he’s probably best utilized as a SP2 on pitchers that require two SP’s. The Braves are countering with R.A. Dickey who is much too inconsistent to be trusted and is an easy fade in all formats. Dickey is vulnerable to left-handed power bats putting Michael Conforto (leading off), Asdrubal Cabrera (2nd), Jay Bruce (4th), Neil Walker (5th), and Curtis Granderson (6th) in play as viable DFS options today either on their own or as part of a Mets stack. Conforto and Bruce are the top options of that group and Yoenis Cespedes batting 3rd is also in play despite being the lone RH bat at the top of the Mets order. With Syndergaard out, the once completely fade worthy Braves lineup does at least have one option in Freddie Freeman as he is a masher against RHP to the tune of a .422 wOBA and .306 ISO.
As reported by: New York Mets official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce Odubel Herrera top option as Phillies hosts the Marlins
Philadelphia will play at home against Miami today in a game that appears lackluster on the surface in terms of viable fantasy options. Neither pitcher jumps off the charts as a good option with Edinson Volquez on the mound for the Marlins and Jeremy Hellickson starting for the Phillies. That said, they are also not pitchers that give up a lot of fantasy goodness in most games. Hellickson is an outstanding control pitcher but he has shown a tendency to give up more fly balls this season. There is the potential for some long balls from the Marlins side which makes Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour all viable options. Volquez on the other hand has some K upside (nearly 25% this season) but it’s hard to believe that he’ll be able to maintain that. He is a ground ball type pitcher that doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact and often limits damage against him. Cesar Hernandez is getting the day off for the Phillies with Daniel Nava leading off. Nava is an intriguing option along with Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco but it’s Odubel Herrera that is the top option as he has the team’s highest wOBA against RHP at .355.
As reported by: Clark Spencer on Twitter Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Edinson Volquez Noah Syndergaard scratched for Mets today with a tired arm; Matt Harvey will start in his place
One day after getting pushed back for a supposed misunderstanding, the Mets ace has been scratched for what is being called a tired arm. Matt Harvey will get the spot start. He’s an intriguing option on the early slate but there are better options out there now that the chalk that was Thor is not on the mound.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo on Twitter Other tagged players: Matt Harvey