DFS Alerts
Tampa aims to prolong Marco Estrada's recent pitching struggles
Overall, it’s been an impressive season for Marco Estrada, but he does appear to be running out of gas as we hit the last two weeks of the MLB season. Estrada has sputtered his way to an ugly 5.32 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break and has also been knocked around by this Tampa team in each of their two previous meetings this season. With right-handed batters owning an unsightly 36.8% hard-hit percentage and 1.53 HR/9 off of Estrada, Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe both see a nice fantasy boost this afternoon. Meanwhile, Kevin Kiermaier has turned it on offensively down the stretch and now owns a .362 average and 1.122 OPS thus far during the month of September.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier
Clayton Richard has just a 10.7 K-BB%, but a 68.5 GB% and -2.3 Hard-Soft% over five starts
Clayton Richard struck out eight of 28 Rockies last time out and has allowed just three ERs in 30 innings over five starts, two of them in his first. He has just a 10.7 K-BB%, but a 68.5 GB% and -2.3 Hard-Soft% in those starts. He’s probably not going to improve his peripherals here either. The Giants just a 6.8 K-BB% at home and a 17.9 K% vs LHP. The contact domination certainly plays in one of the most difficult run environments in baseball though, where the Giants have just a 26.5 Hard% and 7.4 HR/FB. We don’t even have to admit that Clayton Richard might be decent to see that just $4.7K on DraftKings is entirely too low in this spot. The Giants will sit Belt and Span tonight in an attempt to take advantage of Richard’s platoon split. RHBs have a .338 wOBA against him since last year with LHBs nearly 70 points lower, but they are not being replaced with formidable RHBs aside from perhaps Kelby Tomlinson (143 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015), who adds absolutely no power. Hunter Pence (120 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is on fire (312 wRC+ over the last week), but costs nearly $5K on DraftKings. There’s little interest in the Giants offense considering the environment and type of contact Richard has been generating.
Other tagged players: Kelby Tomlinson, Hunter Pence
Robbie Ray has the fifth highest K% in baseball, but also the 4th highest hart hit rate
Robbie Ray allows the fourth highest rate of hard contact in baseball (36.4%), which is a great concern in this park, but he’s countering that with the fifth highest strikeout rate (28.4%) in the majors. An 8.7 BB% keeps him the only one in the top eight with a K-BB below 20% though (19.7). While there’s still occasional hesitation to use him at home, this is one of the better spots he’ll find. The Rockies are a terrible road offense (85 wRC+) in a park that’s still a major downgrade from Coors and they strike out 22.6% of the time with an 87 wRC+ vs LHP. It’s not perfect, but a price tag around $8K is a bit too low for the potential upside in this spot. For the Rockies, because he does allow so much hard contact, players could look at Ryan Raburn (103 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP this season) and D.J. LeMahieu (133 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this season) at a reduced cost on DraftKings tonight. Nolan Arenado is slightly reduced as well, but has just a 91 wRC+ (.204 ISO) vs LHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Ryan Raburn, Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu Games in KC and Chicago could be a concern in Kevin's evening update
The biggest concern in Kevin’s late update is the game between the A’s and Royals in Kansas City, which is currently ORANGE. There’s a real threat of rain impacting this game, enough so that players may want to reconsider Danny Duffy and the promising rookie Jharel Cotton. There’s also a reasonable risk of a delay in the Indians White Sox game. Players will want to read Kevin's full report to further assess the risk of starting pitchers or even bats in those games. It can be found on our Weather Page, linked below. Be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) as well for further updates.
Matt Carpenter IN the lineup, Greg Garcia OUT
Matt Carpenter has been inserted into the starting lineup for the Cardinals with Greg Garcia being removed. This obviously hurts Jason Hammel, who becomes more of a marginal candidate on two pitcher sites, while also taking a top value out of the lineup. Garcia was just $2.1K on FanDuel. Carpenter is one of the top bats on the board if healthy, but we can’t be completely sure after being removed last night and his late insertion into the lineup tonight.
As reported by: St Louis Cardinals Other tagged players: Jason Hammel, Greg Garcia Diamondbacks are tied for the highest implied run total on the slate (5.4)
This Diamondbacks lineup is perfectly suited to face a below average left-handed pitcher like Jorge De La Rosa. He gets a good 49.2% ground ball rate to right-handed batters, but with below average strikeouts (16.8%) and high walks (9.7%), there is a lot of upside for the Diamondbacks bats in this spot. They have three hitters with hard hit rates above 40% against lefties, Paul Goldschmidt (176 wRC+, .443 wOBA, .236 ISO), Yasmany Tomas (184 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .336 ISO), and Welington Castillo (135 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .264 ISO). Add in Brandon Drury (.191 ISO, 33% hard hits) and there is a lot to like here, either as a stack or as one offs in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Brandon Drury, Jorge De La Rosa
Matt Carpenter OUT of the lineup, Jason Hammel becomes more interesting despite 42.3 Hard% last eight starts
Matt Carpenter left the game last night with a back issue and will sit tonight. He is by far the best hitter on the team vs RHP, one of the best in the league and his absence will greatly hurt a lineup that has been just league average at home this year 101 wRC+. We can no longer even call this a bad spot for Jason Hammel. Despite getting beat up by a hot Milwaukee offense last time out, he had an 18.6 SwStr% in that game. He now costs just $6.8K on DraftKings and should probably be considered on a two pitcher site at that cost. There are some concerns though. His hard hit rate is up to 42.3% over his last eight starts. Greg Garcia (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is a great bargain just above the minimum on FanDuel and Matt Adams (96 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $500 more, while both players are $3.5K or less on DraftKings as well. Brandon Moss has really hit the skids. He still has a 121 wRC+ and .309 ISO vs RHP this year, but a -73 wRC+ over the last week with a 35.1 K% in September.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Greg Garcia, Brandon Moss Athletics implied run total has decreased to 3.2 runs, giving them the lowest total on the slate
Danny Duffy has gotten his strikeouts back up over the last couple starts after a slow stretch in August. For the season he has a 26.7% strikeout rate with a low 5.1% walk rate and has shown the ability to really amp up the strikeouts at times, as he’s shown with 18 strikeouts in his last 12 innings pitched. Outside of a game at Fenway Park, Duffy hasn’t allowed four runs in a start since May and has 12 starts with two or fewer runs allowed in his last 18. As a fly ball pitcher (44.2%) in a good ballpark with low walks (5.1%), his only potential problem is home runs to right-handed batters. Duffy will have to battle his way through Danny Valencia (158 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .212 ISO vs LHP), Khris Davis (.258 ISO vs LHP), and Marcus Semien (.267 ISO vs LHP) but even with a home run or two, he should be worth this price. Duffy finds himself near the top of our list in all formats given his consistency and strikeout upside.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Marcus Semien LHBs have 17 HRs, a .409 wOBA and 44.7 Hard% vs Griffin this year, but they bat 7th, 8th and 9th for Astros
A.J. Griffin is a batting practice machine. He has allowed 22 HRs over his last 14 starts, including 14 in his last seven. He’s going to need a strikeout rate a lot higher than average to make that work. While players with lesser fastballs can elevate to generate whiffs, they can’t make as many mistakes as harder throwers. At least not in Texas. There is an issue here, however. LHBs have a .409 wOBA with 17 or his HRs and a 44.7 Hard%. The Astros have just three of them in the lineup, batting 7th, 8th and 9th. Of the three, only Jason Castro has been an above average hitter (111 wRC+) or hit for above average power (.204 ISO) against RHP this season, though Colby Rasmus (90 wRC+, .166 ISO) may be close enough at a low enough cost to be useful tonight. RHBs have just a .284 wOBA and 31.3 Hard% vs Griffin this year, so although the top four hit RHP well, there’s not enough of a break in cost to consider them any real bargain tonight. The exception may come in the fifth spot, where Yuri Gurriel has started his career strong (153 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) and still costs just $2.6K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Colby Rasmus, Yulieski Gurriel RHBs have hit the ball hard 35% of the time against Straily since last year
Dan Straily has walked 10 of his last 51 batters with 11 runs and five HRs over his last 13.1 innings. A .245 BABIP and 79.2 LOB% has kept his 3.88 ERA about a run below his estimators. RHBs have just a .311 wOBA, but a 35.0 Hard% against him over the last two years and that’s something daily fantasy players may be able to exploit with a hot lineup. Only Chris Carter, Kirk Niewenhuis and Orlando Arcia have a wRC+ below 120 or a hard hit rate below 35% over the last week. Ryan Braun (123 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a strong OF play tonight. While Keon Broxton (82 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP) is an interesting one on FanDuel for less than $3K. He has hit the ball hard most often over the last week (54.6%). Jonathan Villar (109 wRC+, .138 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been hitting for more power recently and is in a nice spot to add to his 53 SBs tonight.
Other tagged players: Chris Capuano, Orlando Arcia, Keon Broxton, Jonathan Villar, Dan Straily, Kirk Nieuwenhuis Nova draws great matchup despite park downgrade
Ivan Nova is one of the pitchers with a drastic pricing discrepancy between the two main sites. His combination of low walks (4.5%) and high ground balls (53.1%) make Nova a very safe option against a weak Phillies offense that ranks dead last in the league in runs scored over the past month and 29th in wOBA for the season against right-handed pitching. His peripherals over the past month are incredibly impressive with a 1.6% walk rate and a 58.3% ground ball rate. That has helped him surrender two or fewer runs in six of his last nine starts. Nova does not have big strikeout upside (17.9% K%), as that is not his game, and the lack of strikeouts keep him out of play on DraftKings at his price, but on FanDuel he is certainly cash game viable.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page A.J. Cole has an 18.8 K-BB% and -3.2 Hard-Soft% through four starts
A.J. Cole struck out eight batters for the second time in four starts last time, adding a -3.2 Hard-Soft% to an 18.8 K-BB% in 23.2 innings. There are some crazy kinks in his batted ball profile, such as more popups (eight) than line drives (six), but also six HRs despite all of the weak contact because he has such an extreme fly ball rate (0.4 GB/FB). Adjustments should occur along the way, but he’s shown some potential in a 10.6 SwStr% and costs just $6K on FanDuel. A 26% strikeout rate will play even with a price tag $2K higher on DraftKings, though the HR risk is more of a concern. Washington actually plays pitcher friendly for power even though it’s a more neutral overall run environment. Expensive Mets bats are not on the daily fantasy radar tonight, projected to score just four runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Dylan Bundy has a 13.2 BB% over his last four starts, has the worst matchup on the board at Fenway
Dylan Bundy has flashed potential at times this season, but his walk rate is up to 13.2% over his last four starts, while an 80.5 LOB% probably has his 3.82 ERA a bit lower than it should be. He’s in the only truly terrible spot on tonight’s board in Fenway against the Red Sox (123 wRC+ at home, 115 wRC+ vs RHP, 144 wRC+ last seven days). The Red Sox have the third highest run projection tonight (5.2). The most obvious bat is one of the top ones tonight. David Ortiz (170 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 193 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. Dustin Pedroia (121 wRC+, .135 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has similar numbers over the last week (194 wRC+, 48 Hard%) and may be one of the better second base plays tonight as RHBs actually have a higher .341 wOBA against Bundy this year. Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) joins Ortiz as one of tonight’s top projected players according to the BAT, but at the same exact elite cost on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders BAT Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Dylan Bundy, Dustin Pedroia Alec Asher went six shutout innings in his first start despite a horrendous 8.01 SIERA
It seems easy to overlook the Pirates offense on any given night and tonight is no different. Alec Asher somehow went six scoreless innings in his first start, despite zero strikeouts.He had just an 11.6% strikeout rate in 29 innings last season and even has below average strikeouts in the minors. Combined with the ballpark and the Phillies bullpen, there is a lot to like here for the Pirates. Gregory Polanco (.216 ISO, 38% hard hits vs RHP) is the top overall play, Josh Bell (146 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .175 ISO vs RHP) and his elite on base skills make him a cash game play, and Andrew McCutchen (.160 ISO vs RHP) and Jung-Ho Kang (143 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP) are tournament options. Matt Joyce has a .256 ISO against right-handed pitching and remains an option with Starling Marte out of the lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Matt Joyce, Alec Asher Gomez stays up top, Mazara bumps to 2nd with Lucroy and Desmond OUT vs Peacock
LHBs have a .361 wOBA and 33% hard hit rate against Brad Peacock in his career, while he’s been at least formidable against RHBs. Perhaps that’s why both Desmond and Lucroy sit tonight, but not why Carlos Gomez (70 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is still leading off. At least Nomar Mazara (107 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) moves back up to 2nd at a reasonable cost of $3.6K or less on either site. Rougned Odor (113 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Carlos Beltran (118 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both viable bats here, but perhaps the real bargain is Mitch Moreland (115 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $3.2K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gomez, Nomar Mazara, Brad Peacock