DFS Alerts
Only two pitchers have allowed more HRs than Jered Weaver (32)
Only two pitchers have allowed more HRs than Jered Weaver’s 32 this season, but he’s allowed just one to Oakland in 19.2 innings, partially because of the negative power environment in both parks, but also because the A’s have just an 88 wRC+ and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP. Those numbers become even worse at home (82 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB) and even worse than that over the last week (22 wRC+, 0.0 HR/FB – no HRs!). None the less, if forced to choose a side here, it will be with the offense. Batters from either side have a wOBA just above .350 against Weaver since last season, while RHBs have actually hit the ball hard more often (34.9%). That’s perfect because the batter we want is Khris Davis (122 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is RH and also their top hitter vs RHP. He’s also the most expensive bat in this lineup by far. Everyone else is below $3.5K on Draftkings or $3K or less on FanDuel, bringing some value to most every bat in this lineup and making for an interesting stacking opportunity for an offense projected for 4.7 runs. Danny Valencia and Stephen Vogt both have two career HRs off of Weaver, but both have been perfectly league average hitters with league average power against RHP this season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Danny Valencia, Jered Weaver
Drew Pomeranz returns to Petco having struck out 19 of his last 53 batters
Drew Pomeranz returns to the place he was dealt from after breaking out this season. While his BABIP and HR rate have increased significantly, as expected both due to the trade and standard regression, he has struck out 19 of his last 53 batters and now has a 25.4 K% with the Red Sox that is still pretty impressive considering the league switch. The Padres are not what they were against LHP prior to the trade deadline. It’s a great spot against an offense that strikes out 24.1% of the time at home and 25.2% vs LHP. Along with a significant park upgrade that allowed Pomeranz to dominate through the first half of the season, he’s a very strong option on either site, but perhaps has a bit more value on Fanduel for just over $9K, while his price shoots up to $12K on Draftkings. Projected for just 3.2 runs, there’s no interest in the San Diego lineup.
Braves have worst match up of the day against Max Scherzer
The analysis for this game is short and simple. Fade the Braves. They have the lowest run total (2.63) and are the biggest dogs (+256) on today’s slate. Facing the hottest pitcher in Max Scherzer and a powerful lineup against a RHP, Ryan Weber, making his first start of the season, there is no reason to roster a single Brave. Don’t even think about trying to be “contrarian” in this one.
As reported by: Atlanta Braves official Twitter feed
Royals in a fine matchup against the inexperienced Jose Berrios
While Jose Berrios figures to be a mainstay in this Minnesota rotation in upcoming years, he’s really struggled at the MLB level thus far and now owns an ugly 9.24 ERA after his first nine starts. The Royals offense has been largely disappointing this season, but they’ve heated up and Berrios has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. Lorenzo Cain remains out of the lineup today, but the top six of this lineup can all be targeted as you see fit. Eric Hosmer has racked up 10 RBI’s in his last nine games and owns a .349 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, making him the #1 option.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain
Hot hitting Twins face homer prone Ian Kennedy
The Twins have been mashing of late and get to face Ian Kennedy of the Royals today. Kennedy gives up a lot of fly balls, which leads to a lot of long balls (60 HR’s in his last 57 starts). A hot hitting Twins team is loaded with hitters we can look at in our DFS lineups today led by the likes of Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. Trevor Plouffe and Eddie Rosario are also worth consideration, especially if making a team stack. Jose Berrios gets the start for the Twins and is an easy fade as Vegas has him projected as a underdog giving up five runs.
As reported by: Rhett Bollinger on Twitter Other tagged players: Miguel Sano Mets take on Phillies in what should be high scoring game
Vegas has given the Mets-Phillies game a run total of nine meaning there should be some runs scored. The visiting Mets are slight favorites with Bartolo Colon on the mound. Colon’s ERA numbers are excellent (3.35 on the season, 2.87 over last month) but his SIERA of 4.38 indicates that he’s been the beneficiary of some luck. He’s allowed a hard contact rate of 35.3% and pitching in a homer friendly park makes him a risky option. The Mets offense is in a better spot facing Robert Stephenson as they should be able to put up some runs against him. Alejandro De Aza leads off and at his price point is an excellent value option in your lineups. Jay Bruce is the top option from the Mets lineup with Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, and Kelly Johnson secondary options.
As reported by: Adam Rubin on Twitter Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon The Brewers an easy fade today against Henricks and his 2.09 ERA
With one of the lowest expected run totals on the board today (3.35), there’s not much to like from Milwaukee this afternoon. Ryan Braun owns a team high .362 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season making him the top option, while Chris Carter delivered a pair of monster performances over the weekend. Hernan Perez is out of the lineup today.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Hernan Perez Marlins LH bats are excellent DFS options today
Going against Phillies RHP Jerad Eickoff and with a run total topping four, the Marlins LH bats are excellent options in your DFS lineups today. In the last two seasons, Eickhoff has allowed a .348 wOBA and 18 home runs to LH hitters. Dee Gordon and Ichiro Suzuki are two of the Marlins LH bats but they don’t necessarily have the power you are looking for when looking for DFS upside. Gordon changes that with his speed somewhat and is worth consideration just for that fact alone. Christian Yelich is the top option for the Marlins batting clean up and the other LH bat, Derek Dietrich, is a secondary option batting sixth. Jake Esch makes his second major league start for the Marlins and while he is pitching for a home favorite, there’s just too much risk involved to utilize him in all but the most contrarian of lineups today.
As reported by: Tim B. Healey on Twitter Other tagged players: Dee Strange-Gordon Troy Tulowitzki out as the Blue Jays battle Masahiro Tanaka at Yankee Stadium
The Blue Jays have been common targets this season in DFS baseball, but they’re met with a tough matchup today as Masahiro Tanaka has held both left and right-handed batters under a .272 wOBA. With that said, if you’re a believer in BvsP splits, Edwin Encarnacion should be on your radar as he’s gone 8 for 19 with a pair of doubles and a home run against Tanaka. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista remain fine GPP targets and Devon Travis sees a significant fantasy boost as he slides into the leadoff spot. Troy Tulowitzki is out of the lineup this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Devon Travis Logan Forsythe and Matt Duffy both out today against Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched better lately, but will still enter today’s game owning an ugly 6.46 ERA on the season. Kevin Cash will look to take advantage of the fact that Ubaldo’s been hammered for a .423 wOBA as he’s loaded up with left-handers today. With Logan Forsythe out of action today, Nick Franklin gets a rare crack at the leadoff spot and, with a team best .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching, he becomes a terrific value play at second base. Meanwhile, Logan Morrison slides up a spot in the order today and has had success off of Ubaldo in their brief history (4 for 6 with a pair of doubles).
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Matt Duffy, Logan Morrison Orioles have good, but not great, match up against Matt Andriese and the Rays today
Playing in a somewhat pitcher-friendly park in Tampa, Vegas is not expecting an outburst from the Orioles today as they have them as slight underdogs and projected to score just 4.17 runs. Matt Andriese is the SP for the Rays and he’s been solid, but unspectacular, this season. The two through five hitters for the O’s, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo are all secondary options in today’s slate. Ubaldo Jiminez is a high-risk option for the Orioles today. There is some upside facing a Rays team that has a 23.6% K rate against RHP but probably not enough to consider utilizing him as the Rays also are 3rd best in ISO against RHP.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko on Twitter Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez Cubs substantial favorites in Milwaukee this afternoon
With a run total of over 4 1/2 runs and a solid -185 favorite, there’s a lot to like about the Cubs today as they take on the host Brewers. Kyle Hendricks is in an excellent spot facing a Brewers team that have the highest strikeout rate (25.7%) in the majors against RHP. He’s also in great form with a ERA below two and a 25.6% K rate over his last five starts. He’s a better play on FanDuel due to his price and the win bonus. The Cubs bats get a favorable match up in terms of the pitcher they are facing (Zach Davies) and playing at Miller Park. Dexter Fowler would have been an elite option but he’s sitting this one out (along with Ben Zobrist). Tommy La Stella leads off and is dirt cheap making him an option for both cash and GPP’s. Anthony Rizzo is the top option along with Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella Yankees look to square up R.A. Dickey's Knuckleball
R.A. Dickey has been for more successful on the road this season, but with an implied run total of 4.50, the Yankees look like fine targets today. Dickey has posted an ugly 5.28 xFIP and 39.4 fly-ball percentage against left-handed pitching this season, increasing the appeal of both Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner at the top of the order. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez has cooled off recently, but does own a .552 wOBA against right-handed pitching and continues to hit out of the #3 spot. Both Brian McCann and Mark Teixeria are out of the lineup today.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez Phillies face SP making second start in majors; bats may be worth a look
The Phillies and their 29th ranked wOBA against RHP are typically not a team we want to target in MLB DFS but they are facing Jacob Esch, a rookie SP making just his second start for the Miami Marlins. Esch was just average in the minors so you can either look at a couple of Phillies bats as one off additions to your lineups or go with a team stack that will likely be under owned. Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard, and Odubel Herrera are the three top targets but you can also look at Cesar Hernandez (leading off), Cameron Rupp (batting fifth), and Aaron Altherr (batting sixth) as secondary options. Jerad Eickhoff takes the mound for the Phillies – he has little upside as a road underdog and is not worth rostering.
As reported by: Jim Salisbury on Twitter Other tagged players: Ryan Howard Joey Votto an excellent option against Bartolo Colon and the Mets
The Reds come in as underdogs to the Mets and Bartolo Colon and while their SP Robert Stephenson is an easy fade, we’ll want to look at LH bats from their lineup as they face Bartolo Colon. Joey Votto is the top option with a .423 wOBA and .241 ISO against RHP. Scott Schebler is the only LH bat worth mentioning from the Reds and he’s a secondary option with some upside (.204 ISO against RHP). We can also target Adam Duvall from the right side of the plate as he has the kind of pop (.285 ISO) against RHP that we like to see when putting together GPP lineups.
As reported by: C. Trent Rosecrans on Twitter Other tagged players: Adam Duvall