DFS Alerts

Brandon Crawford (quad) scratched Wednesday

Brandon Crawford (quad) scratched Wednesday

The start of Cubs-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Cubs-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

The start of Diamondbacks-Reds will be delayed Wednesday due to weather

Game update: The start of Diamondbacks-Reds will be delayed Wednesday due to weather

Brandon Drury (Achilles) scratched Wednesday

Brandon Drury (Achilles) scratched Wednesday

This Stack Projections for the Highest Smash and Value Percentages on the Slate

Current projections, which are fluid and often change throughout the day, expect the Cubs and Giants to be the most popular DraftKings stack tonight, each just above a 13 Own%. On FanDuel, the Giants are the only team to exceed a 10% ownership projection at this point in time and a lot of that (on both sites) is due to low cost, but also because the Giants smash the slate most often in simulations, despite being just tied for the second highest implied run line on the slate (5.13). It may not be Coors, but recent adjustments to the park in San Francisco have made it more hitter friendly in recent seasons and Antonio Senzatela has just an 8.5 K% and 91.7 mph EV this year. Somehow that’s resulted in just 5.6% Barrels/BBE because most of it has gone into a 31.4 LD% and .417 BABIP, but either will get the job done here and make for a great stack. Cubs and Angels project as the highest value stacks on DraftKings, partially because the absence of Mike Trout makes the latter team cheaper against the home run prone, but still quite effective Nathan Eovaldi. The Giants take the Value% crown on FanDuel too with only three bats in the projected lineup above $3K, led by Mike Yastrzemski (130 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2021). While Giants’ stacks win the projection triple crown on FanDuel, that doesn’t necessarily make them the top rated stack tonight. To find out who is, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections See Great Value in This Set of Cheap Bats Against Contact Prone Pitcher

You may not need a lot of value bats tonight, but they always make things a bit easier on lineup construction. On DraftKings, it’s strongly suggested by projections that those batters come from the lineup of the Chicago Cubs. Jordan Lyles hasn’t been terrible this year (12.9 K-BB%) and Camden has become more pitcher friendly with recent changes, but batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him in the last nearly season and a half of play. Jason Heyward (69 wRC+, .127 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings (and top five on FanDuel) on price and matchup alone, costing $2.1K on both sites. Rafael Ortega (129 wRC+, .176 ISO) is also a top projected value on either site for $3K or less, more on his own merit. Another batter DK PlateIQ projections like on matchup and price ($2.2K) is Nick Madrigal (75 wrRC+). Another on merit ($3.7K) is Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .211 ISO). If you’re counting along, four of the top 10 projected values on DraftKings are Cubs, though beware an ominous weather forecast tonight that could wipe out all of this if things break the wrong way.

Several groups of teammates appear among the top projected values on FanDuel, including the pair of previously mentioned Cubs. In fact, the top two projected value bats on FanDuel both come from the Boston lineup, against Reid Detmers. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .358 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career. Players may choose to stack Bobby Dalbec (125 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Christian Arroyo (100 wRC+, .180 ISO) for the minimum ($2K) with better overall projected bats Rafael Devers (116 wRC+, .147 ISO) and Trevor Story (145 wRC+, .324 ISO).

Joey Gallo (123 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Kyle Higashioka (42 wRC+) are another pair of cheap FanDuel top projected values that could form a wrap-around projection with the top overall projected bat on the board, Aaron Judge (167 wRC+, .284 ISO) against Chris Archer, who hands it over to a bullpen with a 4.74 FIP over the last 30 days after twice through the order.

FanDuel projections also love a set of Giants for $3K or less against Antonio Senzatela, who is generating neither ground balls (42.3%), nor strikeouts (8.5%), but is still limiting barrels (5.6%) with great control (4.8 BB%), despite a 91.7 mph EV. Most of the hard contact has gone into a 31.4 LD% and .417 BABIP. You may correctly expect regression, but will all that hard contact turn into grounders or barrels? There are estimators more than a run removed from his 5.40 ERA in either direction. Senzatela has completed six innings just once and hasn’t struck out more than three in any start. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .336 and .348 against him since last year. Here, projections favor some top half of the lineup average bats bats with above average power in Tommy La Stella (97 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Wilmer Flores (117 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Evan Longoria (100 wRC+, .197 ISO).

Left-Handed Power Gives This Lineup Multiple Top Projected Bats

A 10 game Wednesday night slate that fails to include many of the top run scoring environments in the league still serves us three offenses above five implied runs and two more above four and a half, as the overall run scoring environment has increased as the weather’s warmed up. As they also did last night, the Atlanta Braves sit atop the board (5.57 run team total), separated from the rest of the board by nearly half a run. They are also the only one of the top five offenses with any serious weather concern and are facing an almost complete unknown in 28 year-old Jared Koenig, making his major league debut, a third round pick in 2014 without a mention in a single Fangraphs article or even a prospect grade on his player page. He does have a 22.2 K-BB% over 53 AAA innings this year. Interestingly, Ronald Acuna Jr. (186 wRC+, .360 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the only Brave projected among the top 10 bats overall on either site tonight by PlateIQ currently (though projections are fluid and subject to change), despite running a predominantly right-handed lineup full of powerful bats against southpaws. In fact, Marcell Ozuna is the only projected Atlanta starter tonight below a 96 wRC+ or .190 ISO vs LHP since last year.

Offenses that place multiple batters inside the top 10 overall projected bats include only the Philadelphia Phillies (4.2). Adrian Houser is the weak link in the Milwaukee rotation and that’s mostly due to a large vulnerability to LHBs (.335 wOBA, .341 xwOBA since LY). The Phillies have two very dangerous ones in Bryce Harper (186 wRC+, .362 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Kyle Schwarber (145 wRC+, .338 ISO).

As mentioned, the Phillies are the only offense with multiple top 10 projected bats on both sites, but the Yankees do so on just FanDuel, while Giancarlo Stanton (137 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2021) just misses on DraftKings. Aaron Judge (167 wRC+, .284 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board (either site) against Chris Archer (RHBs .344 wOBA, .384 xwOBA since last year). Archer completed five innings for the first time this season last time out, but still only faced 18 batters and actually threw a season low 57 pitches. He’s not exceeded 20 batters or 80 pitches this season and has just a 13.5 K% over the last month. A 4.73 SIERA is his only estimator within a run of a 3.89 ERA. The Minnesota bullpen owns a 4.74 FIP over the last 30 days.

A pair of Red Sox also project as top 10 bats against Reid Detmers on DraftKings. Nine innings of BABIP magic, otherwise known as Detmers’ two strikeout no-hitter have otherwise skewed his season numbers, especially from a workload standpoint, as he’s only faced more than 20 batters or gone behind five innings just one other time. Not to mention the .194 BABIP that keeps his 4.20 ERA below all estimators with just a 9.5 K-BB%, though it nearly matches his 4.21 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .358 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career. PlateIQ projections like one from each side in Rafael Devers (116 wRC+, .147 ISO) and…hmm…Trevor Story (145 wRC+, .324 ISO).

Top Projected Value's Matchup Improves with Key Injury

A lot of your top projected values are also some of tonight’s highest priced and top projected arms overall, though there are a few exceptions. A top three projected value and top five projected overall arm on either site by PlateIQ, Nathan Eovaldi could be included in that expensive group, but does cost less than $9K on DraftKings. Oakland was certainly the cure for his home run problems, as he failed to allow one for only the second time this year last time out. Eovaldi’s 22.1 K-BB% is more than a full point improvement on last season, but he’s allowing barrels at twice the rate (12.2%) and has already surpassed his 2021 home run total with 16. His average exit velocity (91.4 mph) is up over three full miles per hour. An 88.2 LOB% means a 3.41 ERA is just a bit above contact neutral estimators, though the FIP and xERA both exceed four. The Angels will be a more difficult matchup (109 wRC+, 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP) and park than Oakland, but it does have some upside (25.1 K% vs RHP) and just got a lot easier with Mike Trout exiting last night’s game due to a leg injury.

The top projected point per dollar value for less than $7K on DraftKings and also a top five projected value for less than $8K on FanDuel is Ian Anderson, who struck out a season high nine of 27 Rockies at Coors his last time out, but perhaps more importantly, it came with just a single walk. Even with that performance, he holds just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season with a 45.1 GB% that’s more than three points below his career average, though it hasn’t affected the rate of barrels he’s allowed (4.9%). The bottom line is that because he continues to suppress barrels, a 3.83 xERA is well below additional estimators, which are all otherwise within half a run of his 4.70 ERA. So if it’s not his own performance or the park (Atlanta) that we like here, it must be the matchup. It certainly is, as the A’s own a 71 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP. Over the last week, they have a team 36 wRC+, 28.1 K% and 2.2 HR/FB.

Alex Wood ($7.3K) is the top projected value on FanDuel tonight, though just a middle of the board one for much more on DraftKings. He is producing the same mid-rotation quality work he did last year with a 16.6 K-BB% and just 6.9% Barrels/BBE with a small drop in ground ball rate (47.6%). Wood doesn’t have a Quality Start because of a .353 BABIP and also because the Giants haven’t allowed him to complete six innings yet, but every single estimator is more than half a run below his 4.66 ERA. However, the Rockies have a 109 wRC+ and 19.1 K% vs LHP this season and ran Carlos Rodon out of the game after just four innings last night by fouling off 33 of his 98 pitches.

Not projected particularly strongly, Chris Bassitt may be under-valued at just $8.2K on DraftKings. With seven home runs allowed on just eight barrels over his last four starts, Chris Bassitt is up to a 15.7 HR/FB on the season, but a 3.74 ERA well below his 4.45 FIP due to an 80.8 LOB%. He’s pretty much in line with additional estimators, ranging from a 3.42 DRA to a 3.78 xFIP with his usually solid peripherals (17.3 K-BB%). He has struggled against some of the better offenses in the league recently (Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals), but has allowed a total of seven runs to everyone else. The Padres are certainly not one of the better offenses in the league this year (86 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 6.6 HR/FB vs RHP).

Looking for a sub-$7K pitcher in your SP2 spot on DraftKings? As mentioned, Ian Anderson fits that bill, as do several other arms, but Dane Dunning, Jordan Lyles and Marcus Stroman all carry significant weather concern. Dunning has struck out at least five in eight straight starts and it’s not that his strikeout rate (24%) is increasing, but his workload certainly is. He’s completed six innings five times over his last seven starts, while maintaining the quality of work he produced last year in shorter starts with 51.7% of his contact on the ground and an exceptional 29.2 Z-O-Swing%. All estimators are below Dunning’s 4.11 ERA. Stroman has his season strikeout rate up to 22.7%, but with just a 9.3 SwStr% and career low 41.7 GB%. In fact, he’s never generated less than half his contact on the ground in a season, but has only generated more than that in one of his last eight starts. It makes sense, as he’s throwing a career low 32% sinkers. The end result, with a 91.3 mph EV, has been a 17.4 HR/FB, but the real problem has been a 25.2 LD%, though batters have just a .286 BABIP against him. The main culprit for his 5.32 ERA is a 57.7 LOB%. As one might expect, contact inclusive estimators exceed four, while contact neutral ones are below four. Lyles has allowed 23 runs over his last 36 innings, but only 18 earned. Add in a .351 BABIP and his 4.50 ERA for the season is above all estimators except for a 5.10 ERA with 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Striking out just six of his last 45 has dropped his strikeout rate to 19.9% (9.6 SwStr%), but a 12.9 K-BB% is competent enough for the Orioles to let him eat up innings for a team going nowhere with a lot of younger arms they’d rather conserve.

Not as Nasy as Surface Results Make Him Seem

If it seems like you’ve had to work a bit more for your daily fantasy lineups this week, you’re not mistaken. We’ve had issues with weather and the quality of pitching. Yesterday, a top pitcher was scratched…and still made the start! Unfortunately, things won’t get that much easier on tonight’s 10 game board, as no less than three games carry significant weather concern. While that does not include the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight, there are another set of issues there. Nestor Cortes has struck out at least seven and also completed at least three full trips through the lineup both in four of his last five starts, though his strikeout rate has actually dipped slightly over this span and now sits at 29.7%. With just a 10.0 SwStr%, this was to be expected and probably will regress a bit further, while a .239 BABIP, 88.6 LOB% and 6.6 HR/FB are all similarly unsustainable. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher, but not nearly as good as his 1.50 ERA and probably not as good as estimators that run only as high as a 3.07 xFIP either. In Minnesota, the Twins own a 114 wRC+ and 13 HR/FB with the expectation of getting Carlos Correa back tonight. Against LHP, they have a 110 wRC+ with just a 20.7 K%. While Cortes is still the second best projected pitcher by PlateIQ on this board, he is not among the top values. Adequately priced is the phrase that comes to mind. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, including the top projected arm and a top projected value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Tigers-Pirates will be delayed Tuesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Tigers-Pirates will be delayed Tuesday due to rain

Adam Duvall (triceps) scratched Tuesday

Adam Duvall (triceps) scratched Tuesday

Tarik Skubal (weather) scratched Tuesday; Wily Peralta will start in his place

Tarik Skubal (weather) scratched Tuesday; Wily Peralta will start in his place

RHBs Have a Nearly .500 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Early projections suggest the Chicago Cubs are the only stack that might reach double digit ownership on a 12 game slate, doing so DraftKings without any stack projected to be that popular on FanDuel. Baltimore is more of a pitchers’ park now and the Cubs carry a modest 4.25 implied run line, but good pitching is expensive and Chicago bats are cheap, while RHBs have a .498 wOBA and .447 xwOBA against Kyle Bradish this year. That includes seven home runs in just 79 RHBs faced. Imagine if they hadn’t pushed the left field wall back and up. The Altanta Braves own the top team total on the slate (5.59 runs) and they smash the slate most often in simulations, but only a bit more than eight percent. Where we start to see some separation from the rest of the board is in the Value% column where both the A’s (DraftKings) and Tigers (FanDuel) project for more than 50% more value than any other stack on those particular sites. We’re also talking about two of the worst offenses in the league though and stacking projections are very much fluid and often updated throughout the day. Which stack projects for the best rating on a slate without any overwhelming favorites? Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Tons of Value in One of the Top Offenses on the Board

Good pitching is expensive tonight and so is good hitting. There’s plenty of reasons players will want to seek out value bats on this slate and the great news is that both sites believe you can find several of them in one of the top offenses tonight. The Blue Jays are second on the board with a team total of 5.23 runs and PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) believe you’ll find plenty of value in Toronto stacks tonight. In fact, Cavan Biggio (158 wRC+ last 30 days) and Raimel Tapia (94 wRC+ last 30 days) are top three projected point per dollar values on either site for less than $5K against Brad Keller, who has walked at least three in four of his last six starts with a strikeout high of four over that span (1.9 K-BB%), which he accomplished just once. Exactly half his contact has been on the ground this season, which helps him keep the barrels down (5.5%), generating a 3.91 xERA that’s the only estimator below his 4.15 ERA. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him since last year, though RHBs have handled him pretty well too (.330 wOBA, .367 xwOBA), which is really bad news against this predominantly right-handed lineup. There are no less than five top 10 projected values in this Toronto lineup on FanDuel, all below $3K. Bradley Zimmer (141 wRC+ last 30 days) is the only other top 10 value on both sites, while Alejandro Kirk (196 wRC+ last 30 days) and Teoscar Hernandez (106 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since 2021) are much more expensive on DraftKings.

Several Paris of Teammates Dominate Hitter Projections on Tuesday

A 12 game slate that doesn’t really include any of the extremely positive run environments or extremely hitter friendly weather features just two teams above five implied runs (Braves 5.59, Blue Jays 5.23) and then just three more above four and a half (Astros 4.96, Giants 4.92, Yankees 4.63). Aaron Judge (166 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board on either site where we may find the most power friendly weather conditions in Minnesota. Cole Sands both walked and struck out four of 21 Tigers in a spot start last week and looks to be getting another here. Sands is only a marginally regarded prospect (40+ FV Fangraphs), but has had a K-BB exceeding 18% at every stop along his way to the majors. Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .248 ISO) is also a top 10 projected bat on FanDuel and just outside the top 10 on DraftKings.

The Braves and Red Sox (4.41) both place a pair of batters inside the top 10 on both sites. Cole Irvin has struck out exactly four in six of eight starts and just two in each of his other two. Even with good control (5.8 BB%), he has just a 9.0 K-BB% with all estimators above four. An 82 LOB% and the fact that just five of 17 barrels (11.4%) have the yard are doing much of the work on a 2.96 ERA. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against him since last year. Projections like Ronald Acuna Jr. (169 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Austin Riley (135 wRC+, .228 ISO) to do the most damage.

Nine innings of BABIP magic, otherwise known as Reid Detmers’ two strikeout no-hitter have otherwise skewed his season numbers, especially from a workload standpoint, as he’s only faced more than 20 batters or gone behind five innings just one other time. Not to mention the .194 BABIP that keeps his 4.20 ERA below all estimators with just a 9.5 K-BB%, though it nearly matches his 4.21 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career. Rafael Devers (117 wRC+, .148 ISO) and Trevor Story (144 wRC+, .324 ISO) are top projected Boston bats.

A pair of Phillies (4.25) find themselves among the top projected FanDuel bats. While Jason Alexander did complete seven innings in his major league debut, don’t expect the Summer of George to last long, as the 29 year-old struck out just three Cubs with as many walks, although 76.2% of his contact was on the ground with an 84.2 mph EV. Projections believe Bryce Harper (187 wRC+, .365 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .340 ISO) should be able to handle him.

Lastly, we find a pair of Astros among the top 10 projected on DraftKings. Chris Flexen can occasionally pop a few strikeouts and pitch deep into games, but actually only has one Quality Start over his last six and can’t be counted on for much of a floor with just a 16.7 K% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed multiple barrels in all but three starts this year and does not have an estimator below his 4.55 ERA. Flexen has a large reverse split (RHBs .346 wOBA since last year) with LHBs 60 points lower, but just above .300 by xwOBA (.304). Every batter in the Houston projected lineup exceeds a 110 wRC+ vs RHP since last season. PlateIQ projections like Jose Altuve (141 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (159 wRC+, .296 ISO) the most.