DFS Alerts
Tyler Anderson has a 16.7 K-BB% and 54.1 GB% at Coors this year
Interesting would be one word to describe the Dodgers lineup tonight in Coors. The team opened with a projection of 5.8 runs and now are down to 5.1 runs, which is a very low total for Coors. Carlos Ruiz (143 wRC+, .152 ISO) is the only above average hitter against LHP in the lineup tonight, though Kike Hernandez (98 wRC+) still has a .193 ISO vs LHP. It’s shocking in a fairly low priced lineup (only Turner is above $4K on Coors) that there aren’t many bats to like. Part of the reason for that is Tyler Anderson, who has struck out 18 of his last 49 batters. He has a 16.7 K-BB% home and road with a 54.1 GB% and 7.1 Hard-Soft% at home. That’s quite an accomplishment in that park. He’s had success in this park and the Dodgers now have a 76 wRC+ against LHP since being nearly no-hit by Matt Moore last week. It’s not really a terrible spot despite the park and he costs $6.2K on either site. Tyler Anderson is very playable tonight and expected to be owned less than 3% according to our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, Carlos Ruiz
Several minor weather concerns in Roth's evening update
Tonight’s largest weather concern comes from Chicago where Kevin has assessed the risk as YELLOW/ORANGE. Read Kevin Roth’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Brandon Moss OUT in Milwaukee against Wily Peralta
Wily Peralta has just a 3.52 ERA over the last month with a much increased strikeout rate (18.1%), but still just an 8.5 K-BB% and estimators a run above his ERA due to an 81.4 LOB%. The Cardinals are still an offense that punishes RHP (111 wRC+), though they are down another key bat tonight in Brandon Moss. Both RHBs and LHBs have a wOBA above .370 against him since last season and both have a 34% hard hit rate against him this season. This is a lineup with several interesting bats, even lower in the order. Matt Carpenter (156 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top overall bat tonight with great success against Peralta, including three HRs and eight extra-base hits with just three Ks in 43 career PAs. Since the start of last season, he has a 97.4 mph aEV on 12 batted balls against him. Dropping down in the lineup a bit, we find the second and third best hitters vs RHP since last season in tonight’s lineup with Grichuk (126 wRC+, .277 ISO), who has a 207 wRC+ over the last week, and Pham (124 wRC+, .243 ISO) for just $2.6K on FanDuel. Kolten Wong (102 wRC+ vs RHP since last night) is coming off a big night last night and still costs the minimum on FD. There are some interesting stacks in this lineup even with Moss out.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Wily Peralta, Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Kolten Wong Reverse line movement in favor of the Rockies make their RHB all that more intriguing
Rich Hill has been excellent this season with a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 2.09 ERA (3.51 SIERA), but he relies heavily on his curveball, which could be a problem at Coors Field. Hill has been an extreme ground ball pitcher to left-handed batters (67.2%) along with a 20.3% hard hit rate, so it’s difficult to get excited about the Rockies left-handed outfielders. Hill’s batted ball profile is average to right-handed batters, as he is going for strikeouts with a high 30.9% strikeout rate, but this shouldn’t be too much of an issue for a hitter with the type of elite skills Nolan Arenado (118 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .258 ISO vs LHP) brings to the table. Nick Hundley (111 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .224 ISO vs LHP) and D.J. LeMahieu (.191 ISO vs LHP) are less intriguing names, but they are both hitting the ball well against left-handed pitching. LeMahieu has a .421 wOBA with more walks than strikeouts and Hundley has a 42.4% hard hit rate against lefties.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Nick Hundley, Rich Hill Fowler, Zobrist OUT against Chad Kuhl at Wrigley
The Cubs were originally projected for five runs against a pitcher with a 9.0 K-BB% that’s been reliant on a low BABIP for a 3.50 ERA more than a run below his estimators over his first eight major league starts, but the absence of two key cogs in the top half of that lineup (Fowlers & Zobrist) could reduce expectations somewhat. Without them, Bryant (146 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (150 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are still beasts, but also actually the only above average hitters in the lineup vs RHP, though Jorge Soler (95 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) draws some interest behind them in the cleanup spot for just $2.8K on FanDuel. Leadoff man Javier Baez has been a pure strikeout machine with a career K-BB approaching 30% vs RHP with an 80 wRC+ and .145 ISO.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl, Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez Nelson Cruz OUT in Texas against Cole Hamels tonight
Cole Hamels has struck out 18 of his last 53 batters, walking just two with one run allowed over his last 15.1 innings, but still has an 83.9 LOB% holding his 2.67 ERA well over a run below his estimators, which have now at least settled in below four with a 15.1 K-BB%. While there may have still been some consideration in fading an erratic arm with the second highest price on the board in a bit of a dangerous spot hosting the Mariners (17.0 HR/FB vs LHP), it’s about as big of a bump an unexpected bump as a pitcher can get when Nelson Cruz sits against a lefty and he has to clearly be considered one of the top arms tonight, though still well behind Scherzer. Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since 2015), now in the cleanup spot, is the lone offensive consideration here for $3.1K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez Brewers strikeout at a major league-worst 25.7% clip versus RHP
Adam Wainwright has only allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last six starts. On the surface, it seems that part of this is attributable to the fact that Wainwright has “pitched much better at home” this year, though his advanced stats are actually pretty similar between his home starts and his road starts. This leads us to believe that his poor road performances have been more bad luck than anything else (.343 BABIP, 64.1% LOB%), and it should also leave us considering him as a solid option against the Brewers. Milwaukee is an offense that strikes out against right-handed pitching more than any other team in baseball. Wainwright is more in play on DraftKings where he is only $6.9K. Obviously, our goal is to build a competitive tourney roster, and with DK’s tight pricing, we will almost certainly need to find some value at pitcher.
As reported by: FanGraphs Gary Sanchez (241 wRC+, .528 ISO vs RHP) was shut down last night, faces another hittable arm tonight in Volquez
Edinson Volquez is no longer a usable pitcher from a daily fantasy perspective with a strikeout rate of 16.5% now and an ERA with estimators well above four and a half over the last month. The Yankees are one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week (136 wRC+), but have basically been a one man wrecking crew. Gary “Babe” Sanchez (241 wRC+, .528 ISO vs RHP) was shut down last night, but still has a 287 wRC+ with a 42.1 Hard% over the last week and is facing a poor pitcher with no real platoon split tonight. Expectations are that he’ll still be a very popular play, though our Projected Ownership page has him at under 15% on either site, half what he was projected for last night. Didi Gregorius may be the other bat of interest tonight. He’s just a league average bat against RHP, but that puts him in the cleanup spot tonight with a 142 wRC+ over the last week and two career HRs (10 PAs) against Volquez.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Didi Gregorius, Edinson Volquez Pearce leads off, Alvarez bats second as Jones remains OUT against J.A. Happ
Steve Pearce has a 187 wRC+ and .310 ISO vs LHP this season with four career HRs in 30 PAs against J.A. Happ. He includes just three strikeouts and another two extra base hits. There’s some justification in leading him off and getting him as many opportunities against Happ as possible. Pedro Alvarez also has a HR in 12 career PAs against Happ with one other extra base hit. He also has just a 78 wRC+ with a .151 ISO vs LHP. The Orioles only have a couple of formidable bats against LHP, hence the 78 wRC+, but it would seem there have to be better options. Going back to their performance against LHP, it actually puts in Happ in a better spot in a dangerous park (O’s 17.5 HR/FB at home). Since he begin throwing 80% fastballs like he did in Pittsburgh a couple of months back, Happ has been on fire. He has a 32.2 K% over the last month that’s tops on the board even with Scherzer on the mound tonight. He might be an undervalued play at $9.3K on either site considering Baltimore’s lack of production against pitchers from his side. Mark Trumbo may have a .252 ISO against southpaws, but just a 60 wRC+ this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Steve Pearce, Pedro Alvarez Paxton has exhibited reverse splits in his career, naturally Texas trots out eight RHB tonight
We typically get excited when the Rangers are at home facing a left-handed pitcher, but this is a matchup where we may want to pump the brakes. James Paxton induces above average strikeouts (22.9%) with low walks (4.0%) to right-handed batters, and high ground balls to left-handed batters (52.8%), making it tough to really to attack him with hitters. The Rangers lineup is loaded enough that we can certainly find a reason to use someone like Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .243 ISO vs LHP), Carlos Beltran (160 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .257 ISO vs LHP), Jonathan Lucroy (43.9% hard hits vs LHP) or Ian Desmond (134 wRC+, .377 wOBA, .185 ISO vs LHP), but there are much worse pitchers out there to pick on tonight.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Desmond Masahiro Tanaka has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts with at least eight Ks in three of four
Masahiro Tanaka has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts, not allowing a run over the last two, striking out at least eight in three of the last four. On the season, he allows a bit too much hard contact (33.4%), but has strangely decreased his HR rate this season (10.7 HR/FB). Either way, it should be less of a problem in the big park in Kansas City that actually isn’t really a worse overall run environment than Yankee Stadium, but do have just a 9.4 HR/FB and 83 wRC+ vs RHP. Tanaka is pitching some of his best baseball of the season this month with a price increase that is justified in what seems to be a really nice spot. He’s a usable top end arm, who is still just the sixth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings despite the Royals having the fourth lowest run projection (3.45).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Tim Anderson is an affordable SS batting second with a 148 wRC+ vs LHP
Daniel Norris has an 81.0 LOB% that’s keeping his 3.63 ERA nearly a run below his estimators and further complicates issues with just a 5.2 K-BB% in August. While the White Sox are an average offense against LHP (102 wRC+), projected for just four runs tonight, there are not a lot of great spots in this lineup, but Tim Anderson (148 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP) is actually an interesting SS batting second. He has a 51.9 Hard% over the last week and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. While RHBs have a .314 wOBA against him in his career, Norris actually has a significant reverse platoon split. LHBs have a .376 wOBA and 33.3 Hard%. Eaton and Morneau have been near league average bats vs LHP, but with little power.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Morneau, Adam Eaton, Daniel Norris Blue Jays find themselves in a plus matchup for the umpteenth slate in a row
Ubaldo Jimenez can always be stacked against with his wildness and inconsistency, and Toronto can always be stacked with their huge power. Combine the two together and we can really get excited about this matchup. Jimenez has below average strikeouts (19.0%), high walks (12.3%), average batted balls to batters from both sides of the plate, and a 4.98 SIERA on the season. If there’s any reason for caution, it would be that Jimenez has never been a pitcher that allows a ton of home runs (11.3% HR/FB). He has only allowed more than one home run in just one start all season, although that was to this same Blue Jays squad. With that said, we should be a little hesitant to use Blue Jays bats like Josh Donaldson (160 wRC+, 410 wOBA, .292 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .384 wOBA, .283 ISO vs RHP), and Jose Bautista (.222 ISO vs RHP) as one offs, but a full Toronto stack is certainly viable, as things could easily go south quickly for Jimenez. Michael Saunders (.208 ISO vs RHP) and Troy Tulowitzki (.220 ISO vs RHP) are the other bats we would want to target, as Saunders is their best left-handed hitter, and Tulowitzki remains reasonably priced remains reasonably priced at a tough shortstop position.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki, Ubaldo Jimenez Josh Tomlin has allowed a major league high 34 HRs this season
Josh Tomlin has allowed a major league high 34 HRs and at least one in each of his last 15 starts. He also has a reverse split. RHBs have a .363 wOBA and 33.9 Hard% against him since last season. LHBs have hit him just as hard with quite a few HRs as well, but have a wOBA 100 points less. That’s fine for the Twins as most of the power lies in RHBs Dozier (109 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Sano (126 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP career). Sano has a HR against Tomlin (in nine PAs) and has an impressive 93.6 mph aEV with a 253 foot average distance on batted balls overall this year. Tomlin doesn’t walk anyone though and the Twins strike out 24% of the time on the road, so he may not be completely out of the question as an SP2 for $5.2K on DraftKings, where he can allow a couple of HRs and still cover his cost.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Josh Tomlin, Brian Dozier Max Scherzer has double digit strikeouts in 11 of his last 20 starts, gets the Phillies tonight
Max Scherzer two hit the Orioles for eight innings in his last start, striking out 10, his 11th time in double digits in his last 20 starts. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board (32%) and has held it through the last month with the top swinging strike rate in baseball (15.2%). He might be in the overall top spot in Philly, against the worst home offense in baseball (73 wRC+) and one of the coldest over the last week (46 wRC+). The drawbacks are projected ownership above 25% on either site and that he costs $2K more than any other pitcher on DraftKings, but it could work if pairing him with someone like Lugo. He’s easily the top arm on the board tonight.