DFS Alerts

Andrew Toles batting 7th; Howie Kendrick moves up to 6th

The Dodgers released an updated lineup and Andrew Toles will now bat 7th and Howie Kendrick will bat 6th.

Josh Reddick scratched; Andrew Toles to replace him and bat 6th

Josh Reddick was scratched due to a jammed middle finger. Andrew Toles takes over his spot in the batting order.

Stacking Brewers today is a viable strategy for the late slate

The Brewers should be a low-owned stack and will be facing a pitcher who has performed horribly in recent outings. Ariel Miranda has only been able to strike out 9% of batters of the last two weeks, while allowing a ridiculously high 53% fly ball percentage. This 14 inning sample size should not be taken too seriously, but in a sport with enough inherent variance already, stacking right-handed Brewers is a pragmatic enough strategy for DFS players creating a handful of lineups. Of the weak-hitting Brewers, the trio of Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, and Chris Carter all make for a solid core in any variations of a Brewers stack.

Jorge Soler is scratched, Szczur in his place batting 8th

Analysis coming soon.

Analysis coming soon.

Didi Gregorius looks to take advantage of a plus matchup

Analysis coming soon.Jhoulys Chacin is one of the pitchers that DFS players do not have to research before targeting. It has become common knowledge that Chacin struggles against LHBs and this assumption are backed up by his 5.11 xFIP this year against LHBs. Over his last couple of outings, his k% has reached levels that supersede the likes of Martin Perez, as Chacin is only striking out batters 6% of the time in the last two weeks. The statistics are begging DFS players to stack LHBs on the Yankees, beginning with Didi Gregorius. Gregorius has sported a wRC+ of 149 over the last seven days, with a silly high ISO of 0.423. While his power is sure to regress back to his season long levels and soon, Didi is worth using until he shows he is done seeing beach balls at the plate.

3 Reasons to play RHBs against Joel De La Cruz, a right-handed pitcher

Reason #1: De La Cruz has an xFIP of 5.74 against RHBs and a 1.33 HR/9.
Reason #2: De La Cruz is letting RHBs get the ball in the air 43% of the time, with a 32% hard contact percentage. Meanwhile, his K% is 12%, so righties are getting an opportunity to hit these fly balls frequently.
Reason #3: Turner Field is known to be a pitchers’ park and it while it may not be a hitters’ park, the left-field fence (RHB’s power side) is rated 1.04 on the RG park factors tool, indicating that it is slightly better than average for home run power.

Most notable Nationals bats to consider: Trea Turner (wRC+ vs. RHP of 156) and Wilson Ramos (wRC+ VS. RHP of 131)

In limited innings, Zach Neal has shown that he will be allowing contact to LHBs

Neal has only logged 18 innings of at-bats versus LHBs but has shown that he will have trouble racking up strikeouts. In those 18 innings, Neal has a k% of 1% versus LHBs. This fact alone makes Adam Eaton a high floor play, considering Eaton’s wRC+ versus RHPs sits at 111, and his OBP has been 0.353 with an 18% strikeout rate. If we assume that Eaton is 20% more likely to put the ball in play, he is a no-brainer cash game play in the outfield today.

A day to go shopping at the J.D. Mart with Henry Owens taking the mound for Boston

Henry Owens has struggled against both LHBs and RHBs in his career. His xFIP of 6.81 versus LHBs points towards Detroit Tigers LHBs being sneaky good options today. However, the Tigers lack any LHBs of note, and Victor Martinez will be batting right-handed today against Henry. Owen’s xFIP is still worth targeting with any one of the Tiger’s RHBs, beginning with J.D. Martinez and his wRC+ of 157 versus lefties.

Roth's weather report is out, noting that the STL/PHI game is worth monitoring

Roth’s weather report has fewer weather issues today, with only STL @ PHI receiving an ORANGE/YELLOW rating. Check out Roth’s full report for details.

Christian Yelich is one of the few lefties for the fish who will face Ryan Vogelsong today

Ryan Vogelsong had a few solid starts with respectable peripherals before quickly regressing back into the pitcher he has been over the last two years. In his last couple of starts, Vogelsong is only striking out opponents 12% of the time and is giving up an inflated 40% fly ball percentage. His peripherals have led to an xFIP of 5.42 over this period, pointing towards an all out stack of the Marlins. The only number that points towards using some caution when using Marlins is Vogelsong’s hard hit percentage, standing at a meager 18%. On the season, Vogelsong’s hard hit percentage versus LHBs is 33%, greater than his respectable 24% allowed to RHBs. Even with Vogelsong’s recent struggles, after considering his 18% hard hit percentage in recent starts, stacking Marlins RHBs may be reserved for the bravest GPP lineups. As a singular play, look to Christian Yelich who will be batting third for the fish.

The Astros, a team who has been winning DFS players GPPs all weekend, now face Yovani Gallardo

While targeting Yovani Gallardo may not seem like an art, his xFIP has varied, ranging from 5.74 in April to 4.94 in August. Over the last two weeks, Gallardo has an xFIP of 5.75 and a k percentage of 17%, indicating at a minimum that Gallardo is not in peak form. When Gallardo lacks his best stuff, LHBs are a good place to begin when targeting him with opposing batters. Gallardo’s season long 31% hard contact and 44% fly ball percentage allowed to LHBs has led to a 1.42 HR/9 that is as legitimate at HR/9 can be. We already know Altuve and Springer are good plays on most nights, but look to A.J. Reed at 1B today, since he will be batting from the left side against Gallardo in a hitters park.

Marcus Stroman has been great in recent starts, making the Indians LHBs less stackable

In a matchup involving the Blue Jays and Indians, Corey Kluber is likely to get more attention than the man who will be taking the mound on the other side, Marcus Stroman. Stroman has a tough matchup but has been pitching well in recent weeks, holding a strikeout percentage of 25%, and limiting his fly ball percentage to 27%. However, over that same period, Stroman has a hard hit percentage of 40%, leaving DFS player reason to pause before unleashing Stroman on an Indians lineup full of LHBs. Even with an xFIP of 3.16 over the last two weeks, Stroman’s 40% hard hit total points towards possibly using Tyler Naquin who has a wRC+ of 275 over the last week. Other than Naquin, the Indians bats have cooled off somewhat, and stacking against pitchers with xFIPs of 3.16 is not the best idea. For DFS players determined to target Stroman, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez are also worth consideration.

Drew Smyly has had trouble missing bats while giving up an above average amount of fly balls

Over the last two weeks, Smyly has a strikeout rate of 12%, coupled with a fly ball percentage of 54%. On the season, Smyly is striking out lefties 10% more than righties, pointing us towards using RHBs to target his recent struggles. Adrian Beltre is the epitome of a high floor/high ceiling play, striking out 12% of the time versus LHP, while still holding a robust 0.250 ISO.

Eduardo Rodriguez out today, Henry Owens will replace him

Analysis coming soon.