DFS Alerts
Gary Sanchez has a 242 wRC+ and .417 ISO vs RHP so far, still costs just $2.9K on FanDuel
Cody Martin has just a 16.9 K% through 45 career innings, mostly out of the bullpen (10 of 14 innings this year). An injection of youth has actually made this Yankees offense more potent. Though he’s been better against just 37 RHBs this year (.238 wOBA), batters from either side have a wOBA above .380 since his callup last year, which is still a fairly small sample. The issue is that in a negative run environment, the Yankees don’t have any real above average bats against RHP. Among those not just recently called up, Brian McCann leads with both a 105 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs RHP since last season. With the bullpen likely to play a big part fairly early in this one, there’s only spot that stands out in this lineup and it’s likely the one everyone is looking at. Gary Sanchez has a 242 wRC+ and .417 ISO vs RHP in his young career and still costs just $2.9K on FanDuel, but is probably the top option at a weak position on DraftKings for $4.3K too. Our Projected Ownership page predicts upwards of 20% popularity on either site right now.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Cody Martin
Pineda brings his slate-best 14.0% SwStr% on the road to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field
Michael Pineda is another pitcher who is much better than his stats would indicate, as his 4.89 ERA is largely the result of a .334 BABIP and 16.7% HR/FB rate. His 3.46 SIERA continues to suggest massive improvement, and his 26.3% strikeout rate is among the highest on the slate. The only negative here is the matchup, as he has to face a tough Seattle lineup that has excelled against right-handed pitching The Mariners are rolling out a lefty-heavy heavy lineup, as they usually do, which isn’t necessarily a knock on Pineda, as he has been basically splits-neutral this season. Pineda is a good pitcher, despite what the surface stats tell us, and he’s a great mid-range pitching option in all formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Jace Peterson scratched, Chase d'Arnaud to take over at 2B
Peterson has been scratched Monday and will be replaced by Chase d’Arnaud at 2B and in the #7 spot in the lineup. This doesn’t change much from a DFS perspective but is a very slight bump for Zach Godley, who is one of the few playable options at SP on the low end of the salary chart.
As reported by: @Braves Other tagged players: Chase d'Arnaud
Cubs projected for third best 4.8 runs in a tough park against Edwin Jackson tonight
The Cubs have a current 4.8 run projection that’s third highest on the slate, likely because Petco is the toughest run environment in play tonight. Edwin Jackson may be the worst pitcher on the slate at this point in his career, but it’s probably more due to a 3.9 K-BB% than exceptionally hard contact. RHBs only have a .313 wOBA with a 27.9 Hard% against him since last season and that’s been slightly his worse side. While walks aren’t very valuable on their own from a daily fantasy sense, it may mean lots of base runners for the middle of the lineup, but that’s an expensive top half of the lineup in a pitcher’s park. Bryant (144 wRC+, .230 ISO career vs RHP) and Rizzo (151 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are great if they fit in your lineup, but something like Ben Zobrist (116 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the best value in the cleanup spot for $3.4K on FanDuel. The other interesting bat might be Addison Russell (103 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2015) batting fifth for just $3K in a spot where he should have some RBI opportunities. Another interesting option is a Cubs stack tonight with a spend down on pitching as the expectation is that they should play well off one another and rack up the fantasy points as a group. It’s a lineup our Projected Ownership page expects to be quite popular tonight though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Edwin Jackson, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell Godley could be a godly starting pitching option in tournaments
Zack Godley has pitched fairly well since his long relief appearance in Boston a couple weeks ago. Godley has owns a respectable 4.19 SIERA to go along with a great 53.0% ground ball rate and is only surrendering a low 28.1% hard contact rate, which is below league average. Godley has one of the largest SwStr% (11.7%) to strikeout rate (17.4%) discrepancies you will find, and we have to assume there is massive regression coming for him in that regard. The sample size is small but he hasn’t dropped below an 8.8% SwStr% in any start this season. Even with Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .272 ISO vs RHP) returning to the Braves lineup tonight, Godley still finds himself in a great spot in this matchup, as the Braves lineup really lacks any sort of punch outside of Freeman. Godley is cheap around the industry, though we would prefer to target him on sites that require us to roster multiple pitchers.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Mike Foltynewicz is inducing a 51.0% GB% and 25.2% Hard% against RHP, making the Diamondbacks stack an interesting fade candidate
The Diamondbacks draw the second-highest projected implied run total of the slate as they on Mike Foltynewicz at Chase Field. His overall pitching profile is actually not terrible, except that Foltynewicz allows a ton of fly balls (47.7%) and hard contact to lefties (34.2%). Foltynewicz has a 4.34 SIERA that is only slightly higher than league average but is a significant road underdog due to the park downgrade and perceived bad matchup. That is enough information to make Foltynewicz an easy fade, even in tournaments. As mentioned previously, throughout his career, he has struggled much more with left-handed batters. That’s not great when it comes to targeting Arizona hitters, but Jake Lamb (141 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .298 ISO vs RHP) is an elite play in this matchup. Despite the high total, we should look to avoid the full Arizona stack in tournaments. They will be highly owned, and Foltynewicz has actually been great versus right-handed hitters this season (14.3% K-BB%).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Foltynewicz Astros (23.6 HR/FB last seven days) face Jameson Taillon in Pittsburgh park that kills RH power
Jameson Taillon has consistently gone exactly six innings in seven of his 11 starts and eight innings twice. His 19.8 K% is just average, but he has just a 3.4 BB% along with an uncomfortable 33.3 Hard%. However, a 53.8 GB% and great home park (especially against RH power) mitigates the contact issues a bit. That’s important in this matchup because the Astros are a red hot (23.6 HR/FB last seven days) and powerful offense, but most of that power comes from the right-side and in fact, they have just two LHBs in tonight’s lineup. Houston also has a 23.8 K% vs RHP. The park has allowed Taillon to maintain a .263 wOBA against RHBs despite a 36.7 Hard%. He also jumps up to a 20.4 K-BB% against them. There’s a large separation in his price tag between the sites with FanDuel ($7.5K) looking like the more favorable spot for exposure. With all three of Houston’s more potent bats being right-handed and fairly expensive tonight, there’s little interest in them in a tough spot. They’re one of just four offenses projected for fewer than four runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Jimmy Nelson owns a pitiful 3.0% K-BB% against LHB
Jimmy Nelson has not been great this season, accumulating a 4.87 SIERA, a 33.3% hard hit rate, and a 10.5% walk rate for the year. These struggles are even more exaggerated when we take his splits against left-handed batters into account, where his walk rate inflates to 13.3% and his hard contact rate increases to 37.3%. The wOBA splits of Nelson are basically neutral, but that only implies he has been fortunate with BABIP against lefties. We should be targeting any and all left-handed bats against him. Colorado is rolling out five lefties tonight, with Carlos Gonzalez (131 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .229 ISO vs RHP) and David Dahl (137 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) being the most obvious plays. Gerardo Parra (.151 ISO vs RHP) is back and is certainly in play given his reasonable price around the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: David Dahl, Gerardo Parra, Jimmy Nelson Orioles bats receive solid bump as A.J. Cole replaces Stephen Strasburg for Nationals
A.J. Cole will be replacing Stephen Strasburg tonight in a matchup against Baltimore. Cole has spent the entire season in AAA so we don’t really have any recent major league stats to analyze. In his last four starts in the minors, Cole has gone no fewer than seven innings, though he has given up seven home runs over that stretch as well. His 4.26 ERA in AAA this season is also uninspiring. There is definitely a solid chance that Orioles can get to him in this spot. Manny Machado (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (137 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .285 ISO vs RHP), Adam Jones (120 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .216 ISO vs RHP) are the top one off options and are a crucial part of Baltimore stacks in tournaments. We can honestly consider any other Orioles hitters to round out stacks, as their entire lineup hits right-handed pitching well.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, A.J. Cole RHBs have a career .368 wOBA against Chad Bettis, Keon Broxton has a 207 wRC+ & 64.3 Hard% last seven days
Chad Bettis has occasionally garnered some consideration outside of Colorado and despite still being in one of the most hitter friendly environments tonight, looks to be in a strong spot against an offense with a 25.5 K% vs RHP. However, his own strikeout rate has cratered in recent starts, exceeding three in just one of his last five starts with a 9.2 BB%. He’s also a reverse split guy (RHBs .368 career wOBA) and though we have to take Coors into consideration there, he’s facing an offense that leans predominantly right-handed even if the Brewers are playing Gennett and Nieuwenhuis tonight. The Brewers only have two above average bats against RHP in Braun (125 wRC+, .218 ISO since 2015) and Villar (111 wRC+ since 2015), but do have two red hot RHBs who might be interesting tonight. Chris Carter (96 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015) his HRs in bunches and has a 175 wRC+ over the last week. Keon Broxton might be the sneaky name out of the second slot tonight. He has just an 85 RC+ and .176 ISO in just 85 career PAs vs RHP. He has also stolen 17 bases this season and has a 207 wRC+ with a 64.3 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Chad Bettis, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Scooter Gennett Washington bats high priced in trip to Baltimore to face Bundy (10.9 K% last two starts)
Dylan Bundy has shown some of the upside that made him an elite prospect not very long ago, but also has just a .228 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% in seven starts since joining the rotation, while striking out just five of his last 46 batters, albeit against the Giants and Red Sox. Though he’s also flashed an 18.8 K-BB% in those seven starts, the Orioles have been cautious, maxing him out an 92 pitches. Though he costs just around $7K, that’s a concern when facing a neutral offense in a difficult park in Baltimore. While he may still be able to surpass a $6.6K price tag on DraftKings, $7.2K for a five to six inning pitcher in a pick’em game here is a bit more of a risk. The top Washington bats are really expensive tonight on either site with the exception of Anthony Rendon, who is now up to a 113 wRC+ and .189 ISO vs RHP this season and costs $3.3K on FanDuel. Murphy and Turner both have a 150 or better wRC+ with an ISO just above .270 vs RHP this season, which is a bit better than Bryce Harper’s 131 wRC+ and .215 ISO, but he’s been the hottest of the three (227 wRC+ over the last week). All three cost at least $5K on DraftKings and $4K on FanDuel though.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Dylan Bundy Bradley OUT as Chris Young returns for Red Sox in against Blake Snell in Tampa Bay
Blake Snell has generated a 24% strikeout rate, but has also walked 11.7% of batters and has failed to get through more than 5.1 innings in eight of 12 starts. He’s also facing one of the top offenses in the league in the Red Sox (106 wRC+ on the road, 113 wRC+ vs LHP). They’re projected for just 4.1 runs with many of their high priced batters being a bit less potent, but still above average against LHP. Perhaps this is a spot to take advantage of some of their cheaper bats with strong splits this season. While nobody would argue Hanley Ramirez (178 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP this season) or even David Ortiz (135 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP this season and 310 wRC+ over the last week), both carry a significant price tag on either site. Batting seventh with Jackie Bradley Jr taking a seat tonight, is the returning Chris Young (165 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since 2015), costing $3.5K or less on either site, while Sandy Leon (242 wRC+, .348 ISO vs LHP this season) is an affordable ($3.3K or less) lefty-mashing catcher this year.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Sandy Leon, Blake Snell Price has a 11.9% SwStr% on the season thus far, equaling his career high
David Price isn’t having a great year by his standards, but his advanced metrics continue to indicate that he has been extremely unlucky for the better part of the season. Price has allowed a .327 BABIP, the highest mark of his career. He has also fallen victim to a 13.8% HR/FB rate, again, the highest of his career. His 3.54 SIERA isn’t outstanding but is still more than respectable, though the elevated hard hit rate (35.3%) he has surrendered this season is a bit of a concern. There is plenty of upside in a matchup against the Rays, who strike out more than any other team in the league against LHP at 25.5%. Clearly, the 24% strikeout rate of Price should play well against the free-swinging Rays, and he beat himself by walking too many batters, either. Price is firmly in play as one of the top starting pitcher options on the slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Doug Fister has some extreme splits this year and faces a predominantly RH lineup in Pittsburgh
The Pirates send their usual compliment of six RHBs up against a pitcher with extreme platoon splits this season. RHBs have just a .254 wOBA with a 56.9 GB% and 22.4 Hard% against Doug Fister. He should benefit even further from a park that destroys RH power in Pittsburgh. However a strikeout rate below 17% against batters from either side probably keeps him out of serious daily fantasy consideration as we look at his numbers against LHBs for some offensive potential in two spots. They’ve hammed him for a .369 wOBA and 14 of 18 HRs with a GB rate 19.8 points lower plus a 36.8 Hard%. Gregory Polanco (119 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) may still cost a bit much on DraftKings ($4.9K), but is a more reasonable $3.2K on FanDuel. Josh Bell is the new bat in the lineup. He’s only been to the plate nine times, but has some amazing numbers at AAA (144 wRC+ this season, 174 last year) and cost $2.6K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Josh Bell, Doug Fister Stephen Strasburg scratched Monday, A.J. Cole to start in his place
Strasburg has been placed on the DL with a sore elbow and will therefore miss tonight’s start against the Orioles. A.J. Cole is expected to start in his place, which is great news for the Baltimore bats. They all should receive fairly large bumps in their projected point totals as a result of this news.
As reported by: Mark Zuckerman Other tagged players: A.J. Cole