DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth is expecting heavy winds for the Redskins-Ravens game in Baltimore, up to 35-40 mph gusts. This type of weather generally has a negative impact on the passing game, especially on deep balls, and on kickers. Miami will also experience some winds when they host the Titans, but not as severe. Check out Roth’s weather for a complete forecast.

Antonio Gates fully expected to play, will be limited

Per Ian Rapoport, Gates is going to suit up today against the Raiders. The veteran tight end will be limited as he’s still rehabbing a hamstring injury. He’s not a strong play given his anticipated volume, and unfortunately, this downgrades Hunter Henry. Henry has been excellent in Gates’ absence, catching 9 balls for 133 yards and a touchdown. Although he should still see a high snap count, his target numbers will be harder to predict now that Gates is back in the mix.

Broncos will start Paxton Lynch at QB; Trevor Siemian is out

Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Broncos will start Paxton Lynch at QB on Sunday. Trevor Siemian had hoped to play but his shoulder “just isn’t there yet” per Rapoport.

Todd Gurley to get more involved in passing game

It’s about time. Los Angeles has been pretty terrible on offense this year. Opposing defenses stuff the box, because they can, prohibiting Gurley from getting much going on the ground. Clearly, the second-year running back is the best player on the team by a mile and the Rams need to get him the ball with space to work. Gurley had two or more receptions six times last season. In those games he scored six touchdowns while accruing 99 or more total yards in all but one of them. Although none of his scores were through the air, having some semblance of an air attack forces defenses to respect the passing game, opening up running room. Buffalo is on a bit of a hot streak, defeating the Cardinals at home and shutting out the Brady-less Patriots in Foxborough, but they’re allowing 3.96 adjusted line yards per carry, 22nd in the league. If Gurley gets himself involved in the passing game, not only will he pick up some extra fantasy points through the air, but he should find himself able to make more plays running the ball. Based on the game’s low total of 39.5 points and recency bias among fantasy players, Gurley should be low owned. Since those factors have also suppressed his price tag, he actually makes for a solid contrarian option in a nice “get right” spot this weekend.

Delanie Walker removed from injury report

He played through a hamstring injury last week against the tough Texans defense, catching two balls for 34 yards. Apparently, he’s fully healthy now and ready to take on a much weaker Dolphins defense. Miami is extremely inefficient against tight ends, ranking 30th in the league in DVOA against the position. To say Tennessee is dysfunctional in the passing game is an understatement. Walker, even after missing a complete game, is third in receiving yards. The team’s leader, Rishard Matthews, has been benched in favor of old-man Andre Johnson. DeMarco Murray, a running back, leads the team in receptions. Rookie Tajae Shape hasn’t lived up to the hype yet and Kendall Wright is just working his way back into the lineup. Delanie Walker should remain Mariota’s favorite target while he’s healthy, providing him a solid workload this weekend. With Gronk still hobbled up, Jordan Reed in a tough matchup (Baltimore ranks 3rd in DVOA against tight ends), and Greg Olsen off the main slate, Walker has a legitimate shot to be the TE1 on Sunday.

Will Tye to be New York's primary tight end against Packers

The Giants normally run with both he and Larry Donnell at tight end, but with Donnell out due to a concussion, it will be Tye’s game in Green Bay. As mentioned earlier, there are two likely options for this matchup: a shootout, or Giants throwing a lot while coming from behind. Both defenses are pretty similar: they both do well against the run and struggle to defend passing attacks. Green Bay has the best rushing defense in the league, which will likely force Eli Manning to sling the rock all night. Anticipated game flow paired with Tye’s expected snap count — he should see at least 80%, if not more — makes him an intriguing play this weekend. In the five games Donnell missed last season where Manning threw more than 34 times, Tye had at least five receptions and 50 yards in four of them, plus a touchdown in two. Green Bay is allowing 7.7 catches and 73.7 yards to opposing tight ends on the season. It appears as though Tye, who is very affordable across the industry, will have a nice floor Sunday night with touchdown upside.

Rashad Jennings not expected to play against Packers

Orleans Darkwa will take on the bulk of the work again, he had 66% of the carries last week against the Vikings. Minnesota has a tough defense, but Green Bay has the best rushing defense in the league this season. The Packers have allowed just 42.7 yards per game of the ground. Football Outsiders ranks their adjusted line yards at the very top with an incredibly impressive 2.01 yards per rush. On the other hand, they rank 22nd in passing DVOA. Similarly, the Giants rank 5th in rushing DVOA, but 23rd in the passing game. With a 48-point total, this game has shootout written all over it. The primary concern is that Vegas has the Packers as 7-point favorites, which may prevent both passing offenses from racking up fantasy points. Eli, OBJ, and company will likely be throwing quite a bit though. After all the criticism Beckham has faced the past couple of weeks there isn’t a better spot for him to lock in and show the country who he is; he’ll be under the Sunday Night lights as a road underdog.

Charles Sims doubtful, Jacquizz Rodgers likely to start

Sims hasn’t practiced all week so he’s not expected to play against the Panthers this weekend. With fellow running back, Doug Martin, also out, Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start along with a big workload. Unfortunately for Rodgers, Carolina has the 5th-lowest adjusted line yards on run plays this season at 3.04, per Football Outsiders. Given their poor pass defense thus far, Jameis Winston will probably be throwing quite a bit. In the six career games Winston has thrown the ball 39 times he’s tossed a collective 14 interceptions (and at least one in each game). Winston has been sacked 2.5 times per game and fumbled three total times already. People may be afraid to roster the Panthers defense after last weekend, but they have a good chance at forcing some sacks, turnovers, and possibly a pick-six.

Cam Newton ruled OUT against Buccaneers

This leaves Derek Anderson as the starter for Carolina. After entering the game in the fourth quarter last week against the Falcons he threw for 173 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks. The situation helped inflate his stats, as Carolina was in catch-up mode at that point. Anderson didn’t play too much last season, but he started two games in 2014, averaging 253.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per start without throwing an interception. Tampa Bay utilizes a pass-funnel defense, ranking 27th in passing DVOA and 11th in rushing DVOA. They’ve allowed 9 touchdowns through the air. This is a good spot for Anderson to start and he’s just $500 above the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Bilal Powell is a sneaky GPP option against Steelers

Powell, the backup running back on the New York Jets, hasn’t received a lot of buzz heading into the weekend, but he makes for an intriguing high risk/high reward play in GPPs that’s worth attention. In each of the last two games he’s had exactly six receptions and at least 70 total yards. He currently leads all running backs in red zone targets with six and is tied for 9th in the entire NFL. New York is relying on him in the passing game, especially when they’re down. Powell’s snap count has increased each week since Week 2, from 17 to 28 to 37, as the Jets battled from behind against the Chiefs and Seahawks. In Week 4 he actually out-snapped Matt Forte, who had 34. Although the coaching staff said they wouldn’t cut back on Forte’s workload, he’s already banged up and they may not have a choice if they want the aging, often injured running back to make it through the whole season. Forte’s touches peaked in Week 2 at 32, and have since gone down to 17 and 16 the past two weeks. Powell has had 10 touches each of the past two games as he’s been given just four carries in both. Despite the difference in rush attempts, Powell has looked like a very strong runner, much more powerful than Forte. If the Jets start providing him more red zone rushing work, which would be wise, he could be a very dangerous fantasy player at his price point. Even if they don’t, he’s a weapon in the passing game and the Jets are likely to spend most of Sunday playing catch-up. Although the Chiefs couldn’t capitalize on this last week, the Steelers are allowing 8.7 receptions and 73.6 yards per game to receiving running backs. Since much of the attention will be on Quincy Enunwa, taking a flier on Powell could pay dividends, especially in full PPR formats. He’ll likely see a healthy dose of targets and with his red zone usage he has solid touchdown potential.

Cameron Meredith should be on your GPP radar

Even if Eddie Royal (calf) can play, Meredith is an excellent value option now that Kevin White is out. White had been Brian Hoyer’s favorite target over his two starts, throwing to him a team-high 23 times. Meredith has a very similar build at 6’3” 207lbs, and can be used in a lot of the same ways. Alshon Jeffery is less than 100%, according to reports discussing his lack of production thus far, and will still attract most of the attention from the Colts defense. In particular, he’ll draw Vontae Davis quite a bit as they both line up on the same side the majority of their snaps. That leaves Darius Butler and Patrick Robinson on Meredith, who score 55.4 and 47.9 respectively, per PFF. In just 26 snaps last week — he played every snap after White went down — he accumulated five targets and four receptions. For comparison, Alshon saw an equivalent number of looks and one less catch in 56 snaps. Hoyer seems to like Meredith a lot and they have a great matchup this week against the very bad Colts defense that ranks 29th in passing DVOA. The best part is that he costs the minimum across the industry and will likely be low-owned (we project just 3.5% on FanDuel).

Trevor Siemian not expected to play against Falcons

He managed to get through limited practices this week, but it looks like he won’t play against the Falcons this weekend. Instead, rookie Paxton Lynch will get his first NFL start. Last week against Tampa Bay, Lynch was decent, going 14-24 for 170 yards and a touchdown. He couldn’t ask for a better spot to start, Denver is at home against one of the worst pass defenses in football; Atlanta has allowed 317 passing yards and 3.25 passing touchdowns per game. Despite this, as 4.5-point home favorites, game flow and a rookie quarterback may drop the fantasy value of both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas a bit. If the Broncos D is strong, they may not need to test Lynch too much. Instead, they might simply feed the rock to C.J. Anderson and let him rack up fantasy points; Atlanta ranks 25th in rushing DVOA.

Antonio Gates expected to be on snap count against Raiders

This is pretty frustrating news as it diminishes the value of both Gates and Hunter Henry. The rookie Henry had gone 9/133/1 in the two games Gates missed. This weekend they have a beautiful matchup with the Raiders, who rank 28th in passing DVOA. Unfortunately, it seems like neither player will be a strong option at this point. We’ll update you as we gain clarity on the situation.

Doug Martin ruled out for Week 6

According to Jeremy Fowler, Martin will need at least another week to heal before he can get back to action. Charles Sims missed practice today and also seems unlikely to play. If Sims can’t go, Jacquizz Rogers will pick up the bulk of the work. He’s averaged 5.3 yards per rush this season, although if you take away his lone rush above 20 yards, that rate drops to 3.7. Rogers has never been a big fantasy play, scoring 5 touchdowns in 71 games over the course of his career. More than anything, this might benefit Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and the passing game as the their run-to-pass ratio figures to skew heavily in favor of passing. Plus, they’re playing a Carolina team that was embarrassed by Julio Jones and Matt Ryan a week ago.

Colin Kaepernick expected to start for 49ers next week

Jason Cole of Bleacher Report reported that Kaepernick is expected to start against the Bills Week 6. Earlier today, Chip Kelly said he’d be evaluating the whole starting lineup in the wake of their Thursday night loss to the Cardinals and their backup quarterback, Drew Stanton. Kelly has apparently been waiting for Kaepernick to be 100% as he’s been dealing with a “dead arm.” Blaine Gabbert has been pretty awful, averaging 170 yards per game while posting a 69.6 rating, and San Francisco finds themselves 1-4; they don’t have much to lose by making the switch if Kaepernick’s arm is healthy. It’s definitely too early to tell if this will be an upgrade for the 49ers skill players. We’ll keep an eye on this story as it develops.