DFS Alerts
Greg Olsen isn't practicing Wednesday
Olsen re-aggravated his foot injury on Sunday and hasn’t practiced yet this week. He’s starting to trend towards the doubtful side of things but it’s possible the Panthers are monitoring his reps, we’ll have to see if he can return for tomorrow’s session. If he ends up playing, he’ll likely be limited again as the Panthers will continue to be cautious with him – he only played 38% of the snaps in Week 12. That makes him a very risky bet with limited upside when the Panthers visit the Saints this weekend. He saw four targets against the Jets and only hauled in one for ten scoreless yards, although he could’ve had a bigger day if Newton didn’t sail one over his head while he was wide open in the end zone. Devin Funchess will likely remain Newton’s go-to receiver and he’ll target Christian McCaffrey plenty. Funchess could have a great spot if Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are out again but both returned to practice yesterday. If those corners play, Newton will likely need to lean Christian McCaffrey a ton. New Orleans is allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs and Christian McCaffrey went off on them back in Week 3 for 101 receiving yards on nine catches.
Rishard Matthews didn't practice Wednesday
It’s not a great start to the week for the receiver. He’s currently dealing with a hamstring issued that kept him sidelined last Sunday. At this point he’s questionable for Week 13, we’ll have to see if he can return tomorrow or Friday. Corey Davis only saw four targets without Matthews last game which was second on the team but still disappointing in what appeared to be a great spot against the Colts. As a team, the Titans are running the fifth-fewest passing plays per game (31.7) and the ninth-fewest plays overall (61.5/g), which has limited the upside of the receivers. If Matthews is out again, Davis should be one of Marcus Mariota’s go-to targets. They’ll have another nice spot against the Texans, whose defense is allowing the sixth-most PPR points to WRs this season. If they can get the offense clicking a little better, Davis should be able to produce. Vegas believes they can, providing them the seventh-highest implied total on the board (25.25 points). Davis will primarily match up with Kevin Johnson, who’s allowing the most fantasy points per route defended among CBs playing in Week 13 (0.41, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Corey Davis This Wide Receiver Is One Of The Best Values Of The Week
In the last three games in which Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Seth Roberts took the field together, the three combined for an average of 24.67 targets per game. This week – in a winnable matchup against the Giants – Crabtree is suspended, and Cooper is unlikely to play with a concussion. This will leave Roberts as the only trustworthy wide receiver for Carr – which makes him extraordinarily underpriced for his workload expectation.
This Perpetually-Overlooked RB Is A Great Tourney Value Again
The Chargers have been excellent against wide receivers this year, allowing the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL to the position. What they take away from wide receivers, however, they give back to running backs, as no team has allowed more running back receptions than the Chargers, and only three teams have allowed more receiving yards to the position. As the Browns fall behind in this game, they will have to pass. And while Kizer will surely force plenty of throws to Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman, Duke should see a slightly elevated aerial workload in this spot – and he will continue to go overlooked by the masses.
Update: Chris Hogan collected a DNP Wednesday
Although he officially didn’t practice today, Hogan was present with his helmet, which is a good sign for this weekend. The receiver has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury. If he’s able to suit up, it would likely take away targets from Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Despite the absence, Hogan remains second on the team in red zone targets (11) and he’s tied with Gronk for a team-high seven looks inside the ten-yard line.
Amari Cooper isn't expected to play Week 13
Cooper is dealing with a concussion and a sprained ankle which will likely keep him out of Week 13’s game against the Giants, who just sent their best corner, Janoris Jenkins (ankle), to the IR. The Raiders will also be without Michael Crabtree (suspension), setting up nice spots for Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton on the outside. Jared Cook flopped last week against the Broncos but he should see a nice target boost in one of the best matchups a tight end could ask for. Seth Roberts will be the de facto number one receiver but he’ll have the tougher spot against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who’s surrendering the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.84, per PFF). Despite both Crabtree and Cooper leaving Week 12 early, Roberts only saw three targets in a tough matchup with Chris Harris.
Sterling Shepard will play Week 13
Shepard said he’s “back to normal” after dealing with migraines that’s held him out of the past two games. Shepard racked up 22 targets over his past two games and will operate as the Giants WR1 this weekend against the Raiders. Of course, those looks came from Eli Manning and he’ll have Geno Smith throwing to his this weekend. It’s not yet clear whether Smith and Shepard have any chemistry but there aren’t many other options to throw to. Shepard will have a great spot against an Oakland pass defense currently dead last in DVOA and 31st against WR1s specifically.
This RB Thrives When His Team Is Behind. His Team's Behind Often.
For some reason, people don’t seem to realize that Duke Johnson is one of the more consistent RBs for fantasy purposes. So far on the season, Johnson has had nine games of over 10 DK points and five of 14 of more points. Johnson is someone that is heavily involved in the passing game, and due to this, he is in for a big game every time the Browns get down big. This week, they have their highest spread of the season (13.5-point underdogs) and are facing a team that has an outstanding secondary in the Chargers. Casey Hayward has one of the lowest target rates of any CB in the league, so whichever WR he lines up against (either Gordon or Coleman) on any given play is probably not going to get the ball thrown his way often. In addition, with the Chargers’ two elite DEs, you can expect Kizer to be under pressure all game, which will likely lead to a bunch of dump-offs to Duke Johnson late in the game. Johnson has a high floor and ceiling at his price tag and should come in at low ownership. Side note: Hue Jackson recently said he wanted to get Johnson more heavily involved in the offense last week, and it didn’t come to fruition, so there’s a high likelihood that this is the week it takes place, as they should be down most of the game.
Pick Me And You Can Get A Team's Top WR AND RB
Hyde has gotten a crazy amount of work lately and has yet to really get the ownership he deserves. So far on the season, Hyde has only 11 less targets than Christian McCaffrey, and he is still the main option running the ball for the 49ers. He gets a mediocre matchup this week against the Bears, who rank in the middle of the pack for both run DVOA and DVOA vs. receiving backs. Last week, Hyde saw a career-high 14 targets, and he has had 8+ in four of the last five weeks. This game is one of the few ones in which the 49ers are expected to keep it close, and with a new QB in the offense, you can expect them to rely even more on their star RB. If all this wasn’t enough to convince you, Hyde has the fourth-most carries inside the 10 and the second-most inside the five. By selecting Hyde this week, you have the offense’s top receiving threat, red-zone threat, and rushing threat. He is the safest play on the entire slate because of how many different areas of the offense he is the focal point of.
Target Share For This WR Is Through The Roof
Westbrook has only played two games this season, yet he is already being used heavily in this offense. Playing only half the snaps in his first game, he had six targets, and he had 10 in his last game. Westbrook has the highest target rate of any WR in the offense since he’s started playing, and he is going up against a Colts pass D that ranks 28th in pass DVOA and is missing their top two CBs. At only $4,100, Westbrook should see a whole lot less ownership this week considering the -9.5 spread for the Jags this week and the fact that Josh Gordon is the same price. This guy lit it up in college and in the preseason, and he is the exact type of WR that is perfect for Bortles’ skill set. The Jags offense focuses on short, highly efficient passes, and with his speed, he has a chance to take any of them to the house. Get in early while his price is low, because it’s not going to be this low for long.
Quite Possibly The Best Point-Per-Dollar Play On The Slate
This is the perfect situation for Cordarrelle Patterson this week. He gets a matchup against a 23rd-ranked DVOA pass defense that is hindered by injury, and both of the top two WRs in the Raiders offense should be out of the game this week. His price tag over on DK is just $400 more than the minimum, and he should see 6-8 targets in this matchup, considering Carr has to throw the ball to someone. Patterson has game-breaking speed (which is evident by his huge runs early on in the season), and with the likely 5-6 catches he should see in this game, he is pretty much guaranteed 4x value in this matchup. While I do like both Holton and Seth Roberts to get a pretty strong workload too, neither of them have the ability to take the ball for a huge gain like Patterson does. He is the best low-priced option on a slate that is likely to feature a chalky Josh Gordon.
His QB Is Back Under Center
It has already been confirmed that Winston will play this week, and the guy that news gives the biggest upgrade to is Brate. So far this season, when Winston has played a full game, Brate has only failed to reach double-digit DK points once. Going back to halfway through last season, Brate has been the most consistent TE in the league with Winston in the game. After several weeks with Fitz at the helm, Brate has failed to reach double-digit points, and with his price the lowest it’s been since last year, you can still expect Brate to come in at low ownership. If you’re worried about his timeshare lately with O.J. Howard, don’t be. Howard is the superior blocker and has been in there to help protect Fitz in recent weeks, but with Winston coming back, the Bucs’ game plan should revert to their old, familiar ways.
Positive Touchdown Regression Is Coming This Guy's Way
Walker is in for a huge game this week. A lot of people still think that HOU is a defense that is one to be reckoned with. They are wrong! The Texans are very attackable in the pass game (which is evident by their 17th0ranked pass DVOA) and are especially attackable with opposing TEs. On the season, HOU ranks in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the TE (16th overall) position, but they have the highest share of targets to opposing TEs (25.63% of opposing team targets go to the TE). Walker has been consistent in recent weeks, not scoring less than 12 DK points in the last five weeks, yet he still has only one TD this season. He has eight red-zone targets on the year, and if last season is any indication of what’s to come, he should have many more TDs coming his way. Be on the lookout for a large workload this week for Delanie, and if he happens to fall into the end zone, expect a 20+ DK point week.
Adrian Peterson didn't practice Wednesday
Peterson is dealing with a neck injury. Head coach Bruce Arians said he has “no clue” what his backfield will look like this weekend, so it sounds like Peterson is questionable for this weekend and he wasn’t just taking a vet day. We’ll learn more when the Cardinals practice tomorrow.
Update: LB Clay Matthews, DT Kenny Clark, and Aaron Jones practicing Wednesday
Ty Montgomery and CB Kevin King were sidelined. Jones has been dealing with a knee injury he suffered in Week 10. If he’s able to make his return this weekend without limitations, he should resume his starting role. While Jamaal Williams had a very nice game against the Steelers with 135 total yards and two TDs, he’s been an inefficient runner, averaging 3.4 yards per carry or less in all three starts this season. Although he’s been a little up and down, Jones has flashed some serious upside, posting 125 or more rushing yards in two of the four games he’s picked up double-digit carries. The Packers backfield is certainly one to monitor this week.
Other tagged players: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams