DFS Alerts
Fantastic Risk/Reward GPP Value
Shhhhhh. Palmer has quietly made his last five cuts on Tour, and he has book-ended those five starts with a pair of top tens. He is playing with somewhat of house money at this point, as he moved from right on the borderline of moving on in the playoffs (ranked 100th prior to last week) into the top 50 with his big performance last week. Palmer carries an above average ball striking rank on Tour, ranks 15th in birdie or better percentage, and has made his last three cuts at TPC Boston in 2014, 2015, and 2016. He’s my favorite dirt cheap value option of the week, as he gives you more upside than his compatriots in this price range.
Ready to Roar
Tiger Woods struggled to a 40th place finish last week, but it wasn’t because of his game of the tee. He was rock solid in almost every aspect of his game… except with the putter. He lost 4.92 strokes putting last week, meaning if he just would have putted at field average, he would have finished inside the top 15. I will call one mishap more of an aberration than a trend, and this is a perfect spot to jump aboard the ship. There’s winning upside if his tee-to-green game matches what he did last week. Yes, you are reading my article and not Notorious’ here. I’m big on Tiger Woods this week, and all he needs is for that putter to cooperate for a chance to contend. He looked great with the driver last week, and he is up to 8th on Tour in strokes gained from tee to green this year. A win is coming soon. I hope it happens in Boston, as Woods will be my highest owned player in all formats.
Ten minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Ten minutes until roster lock and as expected it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Paul Casey looks to bounce back from a rare missed cut
To the surprise of many Paul Casey played very poorly at this year’s PGA. Currently ranked inside the top 20 in both the world rankings and The FedEx Cup standings, Casey is in the middle of having another terrific season. In sixteen starts this season Casey has posted 11 top 25 or better finishes including a win at The Valspar Championship in March. Heading into the final stretch of the season Casey will not only prepare to make a strong run at The FedEx Cup but will also look forward to The Ryder Cup later this fall. Currently projected to have a low ownership this week, Casey represents a great opportunity to pivot off other popular golfers in his price range. At half the projected ownership of Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay, Casey could make for a great pivot in almost any format this week. His poor play at The PGA creates a great opportunity to buy low on a talented golfer having a great season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Sticking to the Man Crush
Since this profiles as a course where short game play stands out, many DFS players will likely shy away from Keith Mitchell this week. That is especially true since he was 5-7% owned last week despite being projected as a chalkier option. However, I am not going to run for the hills. Mitchell scores fantasy points and should get plenty of scoring chances on the easier holes on this course. He ranks inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour this year in birdie or better percentage, which is nothing to scoff at. Even though he finished in the middle of the pack at 41st last week, he ranked very highly with 21 birdies. He’s priced at an extremely dirt cheap tag for this event and is one of my favorite value plays on the board. Let’s go Keith!
Fine GPP Upside
One of the best statistical fits for this course that seems to be going over-looked is Bryson DeChambeau. Some are worried about the withdrawal at the John Deere Classic in July, but that was the week before the Open Championship. He clearly wasn’t seriously injured. Some are worried about his lapse in judgment with a handshake after he blew a potential win over in Europe. Some are worried about his missed cut at the PGA Championship. It’s the perfect storm for recency bias to lead to low ownership, and that missed cut at the PGA was only thanks to a bogey on his last hole (he missed the cut by one). He ranks 14th on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 43rd in scrambling, and 34th in ball striking — and his DFS price is sitting below the average price we have to spend per golfer on all sites. Sign me up.
A Nice Combination of Floor and Upside
Cantlay has quietly had a rock solid season, and here are his results since the month of June: 4th, 45th, 15th, 12th, 6th, 27th. That’s remarkable consistency, especially when you consider that a lot of those results have come in high profile events. His tee-to-green game is among the best on Tour, and he ranks 14th in ball striking this season. He’s proven his mettle on the top stages, and the playoffs should provide him another chance to shine. He’s a nice pivot away from the next golfer I am going to discuss, if you are looking to shy away from hefty ownership.
Top Play on the Board
While he struggled a bit at the PGA Championship, his previous two starts before that one resulted in a win and a third place finish, and this is the type of golf course that he can overpower when he’s on his game. There are plenty of nice value plays on the board this week, making it easier to fit DJ into lineups, too. While he is naturally known for his bombing ability off the tee, that’s not his only skill set. He ranks 20th on Tour in scrambling, 25th in ball striking, and he leads the circuit in birdie or better percentage this year. He is a lock for cash games, and I’ll try to get around 50% exposure to him in my multi-entry GPP contests.
Patrick Cantlay gaining steam amongst our experts
Up and coming PGA star Patrick Cantlay comes into the final stretch of the season with plenty of motivation to play well. Looking to make his second straight Tour Championship, Cantlay has to be on the short list of potential Ryder Cup captain’s picks. As steady as they come on Tour, Cantlay has posted 12 top 25 or better finishes in his 19 starts this season. With a win at The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Cantlay also proved he has what it takes to win on the biggest stage in golf. Reasonably priced across the industry Cantaly’s steady play makes him an easy choice as one of the best value plays in our expert rankings this week. Much like Ryan Moore from two years ago, Cantlay can force his way on to the team with a win and or solid play over the next few weeks. Underpriced in comparison to his consistency and upside, Cantlay makes a great play in all formats this week.
As reported by: FanDuel PGA Rankings Bryson DeChambeau a value to look at for GPP's
Time is the great equalizer in the evaluation of player performance. When Bryson DeChambeau burst onto the scene with a great performance as an amateur in the Masters a few years ago, everyone in the DFS community fell in love with his game. As DeCambeau began to struggle once turning pro, many players began to jump ship on his game only to return once his play improved. With a win in the last two seasons and surging world ranking, DeCambeau has once again become a person worth looking at in both the real world of golf and in the land of DFS. Poor play of late and increased scrutiny of his behavior in defeat has some in the golf world doubting if DeCambeau is worthy of a Ryder Cup spot later this fall. A missed cut at the year’s last major has lead to a decrease in price for DeChambeau at this week’s Northern Trust. Priced way too cheap across the industry, DeChambeau is gaining steam as a GPP option for the week. Statistically a great course fit for Ridgewood, you can make a case that DeCambeau at a discount is also an amazing value play for cash games. Prior to missing the cut at The PGA, DeChambeau had made 12 straight cuts including a win and five additional top 10 finishes. The only negative it appears for DeChambeau is that he has a lot to play for over the next few weeks, and there is a bit of doubt about how this young unproven player will handle the extra pressure of playing well with a potential Ryder Cup birth at stake.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Stewart Cink playing his best golf at the right time
Poised and ready to make his deepest run into the FedEx Cup race since winning the 2010 British Open, Stewart Cink is clearly playing his best golf of the season at the right time. Cink enters this week having made six straight cuts including 3 top five or better finishes. Priced down in due to the strength of the field, Cink is standing out as a strong value play for The Northern Trust. Even though the course routing will be different than it has been in the past, Cink has two top 15 or better finishes in his three tries at Ridgewood C.C., so one would assume he likes what he sees in this traditional golf course. In what is shaping up to be a ball strikers course, Cink has the game deserving of a consideration as a value play with upside for the Northern Trust.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Chris Kirk continues to out perform his price
Only a handful of players in this week’s field, understand the pressure of actually having a chance to win the FedEx Cup. Multiple PGA Tour winner Chris Kirk finished off his career-best 2014 season by narrowly missing out on the coveted FedEx Cup trophy, and enters this week playing some of his best golf since that time. Owner of 11 straight made cuts and 9 top 25 or better finishes, Kirk is once again priced too low in comparison to his play. While his solid play has not gone unnoticed by many in the community, there is no reason to really look for a fade of Kirk in cash games this week. Even at high ownership, the combination of his play with a reduced price makes it easy to plug Kirk in as the first option in your cash builds for the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. As always there is merit for fading a high owned player such as Kirk in tournaments, but even at a discount, it might be easier to pivot in other spots.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Cut Maker at a Cheap Price
Kirk was the extreme chalk last week at the Wyndham Championship and I’m expecting more of the same again this week. He’s only $6,800 on DraftKings, despite making 11 straight cuts, including four top 11 finishes during that stretch. He’s not the longest off the tee, but he’s very good with his irons and he can score on the par fours. When we dip down into this price range, we are really just looking for golfers that can make the cut. Anything on top of that is just gravy.
He's a Head Case, but he's Cheap
Bryson is a price play more than anything. He broke many hearts at the PGA Championship, missing a four-footer on his final hole to miss the cut on the number. Even though I was on the wrong side of it, that was a great example of why the cut sweat on Friday is so great. I’m expecting a nice bounce-back from Bryson, as he still has plenty to play for. There is a lot of money at stake and he’s still looking to become a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup. Bryson is another one of those golfers that doesn’t really have a major weakness in his game and we’ve seen him play well on a lot of difficult golf courses.
Tee to Green Game is Firing on All Cylinders
After his win at the Waste Management Open (which I was at by the way), we didn’t see much from Woodland over the next few months. There is a natural let-down after a win. He finally seems to be rounding into form again. While his short game isn’t exactly up to snuff, he can be an elite ball striker when he’s on. In his last three tournaments (two were elite fields), he has gained nine, seven, and eight strokes tee to green. He’s a great driver of the ball and he’s one of the best when it comes to long irons. This seems like a perfect fit for Woodland, as long as he doesn’t bleed too many strokes away on and around the greens.