DFS Alerts
Great Driver of the Golf Ball
RCB didn’t have the greatest Saturday last week, but he was seven under in the other three rounds. Before the Northern Trust, he posted three straight top 20 finishes in some talented fields. He’s one of the best total drivers of the golf ball in the world, meaning he has above-average distance and accuracy. That’s a lethal combination on a driver-heavy course like TPC Boston. For whatever reason, he isn’t getting much buzz this week. As you will see in my model video, he grades out as the second best point-per-dollar play on the board (at least on DraftKings). His game is trending and in his lone appearance at this event, he finished inside the top 20.
Best Point-Per-Dollar Play in my Model
How many of you had Keegan last week? For those of you that said yes, how many of you are going back to the well? He had one of the worst Sundays of the season for someone that was in the final group. He was a mess off the tee and he couldn’t make a putt. If we didn’t see him fall apart in his final round, we probably would have been happy with a T34 finish. I always like to look at the big picture in these situations. Keegan has been in good form recently, he’s a great fit for the course, and he’s from the area. He has made five straight cuts at this event with four top 25 finishes during that stretch. Be willing to overlook his one bad round last week and you’ll see him as a great value for the Dell Technologies Championship.
20 Birdies Last Week.. Could be Trending
Casey has been in terrible form over the last couple of months. He mentioned that he was fighting his swing before the PGA Championship and rather than listen, I decided to play him anyway. Whenever we have a golfer that is trying to work his way back into form, I look at two things in particular — ball striking and birdies. Casey was solid off the tee and with his approaches and he made 20 birdies last week at the Northern Trust. He is trending at the perfect time, as his price and projected ownership are both low. I’m not only going to be overweight, I’m considering the lock button. If that happens, I’ll have 100% exposure to both Casey and Tiger. That doesn’t sound like a terrible idea, especially since Casey has finished fourth and second here the last two seasons.
A+ Hair Game, A- Golf Game
Over the last couple of months, it has felt like we’ve had to overpay for Fleetwood. Even his Vegas odds seemed inflated for a while. I’m a huge Fleetwood fan, so I’ve been willing to pay a premium every now and then, especially on driver-heavy courses. This week he finally feels cheap. I plan to load up in both cash games and tournaments. Yes, most of the golfers that I like are going to be chalky, but you can differentiate with your last couple of lineup spots. Fleetwood hits the ball long and straight and he can string together birdies. He always seems to have that one blowup round, but he’ll put together four solid rounds sooner or later. When he does, he could pick up his first win on the PGA Tour.
Getting so Close to that Next Win
Finau should be extremely chalky this week. Well actually, Finau should be extremely chalky every week. I was a little worried about his driving accuracy heading into last week’s tournament, but once again, he proved that he can play well on any type of golf course. TPC Boston certainly sets up better for the bombers, as the fairways are wide and the rough is short (at least shorter than last week). Finau is ranked third in this field in birdie or better percentage and first in par five scoring. He loves playing in strong field events, as evidenced by his record in the majors, WGCs, and FedExCup events. At $8,800, we should be overweight on Finau compared to the field.
Happy Feet
Cantlay is so solid in all parts of his game that even when he has a bad week with the putter or around the greens, the rest of his game is good enough that he can still make cuts and post high finishes. Golfers that rely on one specific part of their game for their success are more volatile in nature. I also owe Cantlay, as he made a 25-foot putt on his final hole. This not only gave him birdie points and moved him up the leaderboard, but it also secured the all four rounds under 70 bonus. It was a solid $10k swing for yours truly in the FGWC. Cantlay is a little more expensive this season, but we’ve been expecting him to add another win to his resume and this course sets up really well for him. In his tournament debut last season, he finished in a tie for 13th.
The Ricky Bobby of Golf
Rahm had one of the worst putting performances that we’ve seen from him in quite some time. I believe he lost five strokes putting on Thursday alone and at the point, he just threw in the towel. We shouldn’t be surprised, as he’s been one of the most boom or bust fantasy options all season. TPC Boston sets up much better for him, as the fairways are wider and the rough is shorter. We’ve seen bombers fare well each and every year at this course and it clearly fit Rahm’s eye, as he finished T4 in his debut here last season. With around 25 golfers missing the cut this week, we should like Rahm’s chances to play the weekend. When he plays four rounds, he tends to finish in the top ten. This is a good spot to buy low on Rahm in terms of both ownership and price.
Winner Winner, Tiger Dinner
Welcome to Tiger week, everyone. We’ve been culminating toward a Tiger win all season. He nearly got it done at the Valspar, he had the lead on the back nine at the Open Championship, and he finished solo second at the PGA Championship. His biggest weakness this season has been his driver, but we saw some encouraging signs last week at the Northern Trust. Tiger not only hit a bunch of drivers, but he was peppering the fairways. It looked like he let off the throttle a little, which gave him better control of his swing. If that continues this week, he’s going to be holding up that trophy on Monday (tournament starts on Friday). His irons have been amazing all year, his proximity looks great, and he’s due for a bounce-back after a poor outing with his putter last week. I don’t hit the lock button often in PGA DFS, but Woods will be in 100% of my lineups this week.
Dustin Johnson continues to pile up birdies
Dustin Johnson is one of the few players on tour who could win a PGA Tour event despite having a few big numbers on his scorecard. Johnson finished last week in a tie for 11th despite having two triple bogies and one double bogey during the event. With 23 birdies for the week, Johnson was able to post his 10th tournament of the year with at least 20 or more birdies. Currently ranked in the number one spot in birdie or better percentage, Johnson continues to crush DFS scoring and should be a major GPP consideration this week. With 98 players participating this week, and the top 70 and ties making the cut, there is a strong argument to consider a stars and scrubs roster construction for the week. With such a large percentage of players potentially making the cut, there should be plenty of value to lessen the cost burden associated with adding Johnson to your roster. Like many other top players in the game, Johnson is motivated to finish the season strong and should be in a good spot to contend for a win this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
FanDuel Golf is back in Texas
Big news in the world of DFS this week, as FanDuel announces that it will once again offer paid contest in the lone star state. While the timing of this news is certainly great for NFL, there is still a few good weeks of DFS golf left in the season. With only three weeks left in the FedEx Cup race, golfers head into this week with plenty to play for in terms of making it to the Tour Championship. Currently ranked in the 11th position in the FedEx Cup standings, Patrick Cantlay has more than making it to East Lake on his mind as he prepares for The Dell Technologies Championship. Cantlay has to be considered on the short list of potential Captian’s picks for The Ryder Cup later this fall, and last week’s solid T8 showing should have only helped his chance of making the team. Priced at $10,000 on FanDuel, Cantlay ranks near the top in terms of Pt/$/K in our projections this week. For those who are new to building lineups on FanDuel, it’s not uncommon to see a higher priced player ranked near the top spot in terms of value. Cantlay has only finished outside the top 15 once in his last six starts and will tee it up in this event looking to improve on a T13 in his first try at The TPC Boston. The combination of an affordable price and clear-cut upside makes Cantlay a great option for all formats this week.
As reported by: FanDuel PGA Projection Tool Stanley the Steady Striker
The noted ball-striker lived up to his reputation last week when he gained 5.8 strokes tee-to-green but lost 2.2 strokes putting. Tee-to-Green is the staple of his game as he’s gained strokes in that department in 12 of his last 13 starts. Here at TPC Boston he is 3-for-4 with a T10 and T25 the highlights. He arrives with very similar form to 2011 which was the year he posted the T10 here (not great form the other three years). The thing that makes Stanley more steady is his precision off the tee. He’s posted better driving accuracy numbers compared to the field in all but four starts since the beginning of the 2017 calendar year. TPC Boston is a course that is going to allow you to get in attack mode as long as you stay in the generous fairways. That plays well for Stanley who is extremely accurate but also longer than average in the distance department.
Putting Prayers
Chappy is never going to light up the putting greens but his recent run of putting is very poor, even by his standards. Luckily, we are heading to a course where he’s seen some putts drop. Chappell has been inside the top 12 after 8 of his last 12 rounds here at TPC Boston. He gained 1.8 strokes putting in 2015 and another 3.8 strokes in 2016. That 3.8 week falls inside his top-10 putting performances since 2012. If there is ever a time to trust the ball-striking and hope for a decent putting week, this looks like a strong spot for that. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in all but two starts this season which gives him a relatively high floor for a golfer in this price range.
Go-Low Capabilities
The Oklahoma product has posted a “2018 go-low rate” that ranks 35th in this week’s field. That means his low rounds are really strong. Compare that to his salary which ranks outside the top 75 across the industry this week. Perhaps his long-term stats are weighing him down a bit but he’s much more comfortable during his second go-round on the PGA TOUR. He’s still a little unpolished when it comes to competing in these big events but the upside is there. Adding to his appeal, he had this to say en route to a top 10 at TPC Potomac this year, “I love bent greens and these ones are really good and they roll real true, so just sticking to the process. I feel like I read the greens really well and today it obviously paid off and I’m just going to keep doing the same thing.” A birdie machine that is playing on his preferred putting surface equals a high-upside GPP option.
Quietly Rolling Along
Cantlay continues to quietly play solid golf, as he racked up another ho-hum top ten finish a week ago in New Jersey. He’s not winning events, which is keeping his national notoriety on the down low, but he’s playing great golf. Eight of his last ten events have resulted in finishes of 27th or better, and his game is solid all around. He ranks 15th on Tour in ball striking and 23rd in birdie or better percentage, and his game should translate very well to this course. He finished 13th in his debut here a year ago, and perhaps this is the week that he could find that elusive winner’s circle. He’s been paying off his salary nearly every week, and I wouldn’t expect that to change. A top 20 is very likely, and there’s upside for a lot more than that.
A Week to Pop at Low Ownership and a Reasonable Price
The X Man generally abides by the Ricky Bobby theory that “If you ain’t first, you’re last” as it seems like Schauffele is either contending for wins or missing cuts. That kind of upside is what we want to seek in a field that is more limited this week, and his odds of making the cut are better with 70+ out of 98 golfers making the weekend. He’s not going to be popular because of his recent performance, but he is capable of making birdies with the best of them when he is on, and I think he pops this week. His statistical profile is average to above average all around, but that’s largely because of his wide range of outcomes. His best weeks are better than most, and targeting him when he is going to go largely ignored and when he comes at an affordable price can be a profitable strategy. Give him a long look in your GPP roster builds for the Dell Technologies.