DFS Alerts
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Outside of the news of Lee Westwood and Thomas Bjorn withdrawing from the tournament, it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Other tagged players: Thomas Bjorn
Weather update for The PGA Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report for the last major of the season is up in the main forum. While rain and soft conditions from the early week rains will have an overall effect on the course, it looks like this week we can cross a weather forecast off our list for handicapping purposes. With similar conditions for the first two days of the event, golfers from both tee time waves should see pretty similar conditions for the first two rounds of golf. As always good luck this week grinders, and we will update any weather news if needed prior to lock.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Thorbjorn Olesen ranks as a top value play amongst our experts
International player Thorbjorn Olesen enters the fourth major of the year with perhaps his best form in quite some time. Olesen was able to win his fifth career title on the European Tour earlier this summer ending a two-year drought of poor play. In addition to his win, Olesen has 4 top 15 or better finishes in his six international starts, including a third-place finish at last week’s WGC event. At $6,700 on DraftKings, Olesen makes sense as a high upside value play in terms of building a stars and scrubs roster. In a week where there is not a ton of standout value, Olesen is quickly gaining the trust of our experts for the final major of the season.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Jordan Spieth chasing history with very little fanfare
In what has been without a doubt a very disappointing year, multiple major champion Jordan Spieth enters this week with not only a chance to turn a season around, but he can also add his name to a select group in the history of golf. If Spieth were to put four rounds together at the PGA and take home the Wanamaker trophy he would become only the sixth golfer in the history of the game to have won all four majors in his career. Admitingly not playing the type of golf he is normally accustomed to, Spieth was almost able to defend his Open title last month. Trending at a very low ownership number for the third consecutive week, Spieth is one of the few players in this filed talented enough to win despite struggling for most of the season. Currently projected to have an ownership number less than 8 percent, Spieth certainly has the pedigree to make for an extremely high upside pivot play in large field GPP’s.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Thomas Bjorn is no longer in the field
Thomas Bjorn is no longer in the PGA field for this week and has been replaced by Kevin Streelman. No injury news has been associated with this move at the time of this report, and due to the timing of the move, Streelman will not be in DFS pricing this week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Stewart Cink heads into this week with momentum on his side
One time major champion and PGA Tour veteran Stewart Cink heads into the last major of the 2018 season looking to keep up his current solid form. Currently ranked inside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings, Cink will need to make a strong push towards the end of the season if he wants any chance to make a deep run in this year’s race. Having not played in the Tour Championship since his major-winning season of 2009, Cink has posted 17 top 25 better finishes in his last 48 starts on tour. Four of those seventeen top 25 or better finishes have come in his last five starts making Cink a value play worth looking at for The PGA Championship. Reasonably priced across the industry, Cink makes for a great option in stars and scrubs roster build for the final major of the 2018 season.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Tiger Woods looks to bounce back from a disappointing WGC
Tiger Woods play at last week’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational left many of his backers with a sour taste in their mouths. At a course in which he had dominated in the past, Woods struggled on the weekend to post a very unflattering T31 finish. Heading into the last major of the year, the Tiger buzz has dropped significantly. After leading the British Open for a half an hour on Sunday, many in the golf world who were not pro Woods prior to that week were quick to jump on the bandwagon moving forward. All things considered, Woods is having a better than expected year in terms of progressing through a return after a sizable layoff, and one off week should not deter your expected value in the long run. Projected ownership is low on Woods this week, and while the increase in price makes it hard to justify a roster spot in cash, this could end up being a great week to play him as a pivot play in GPP’s. Depending on the course setup Bellerive Country Club could end up being more of a second shot course and less of a track where players are forced to hit driver. The knock on Woods thus far this season is his inability to regularly hit the driver in play, but as we saw in the British Open, Tiger is not afraid to play less than driver off the tee if he feels that gives him the best opportunity to play well. With last week’s winner, Justin Thomas and current U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka eating up the large majority of shares in the sub $10,000 to $9,500 price range, Woods makes sense as a low owned high upside pivot for the final major of the season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Joaquin Niemann set to make his professional major debut
Budding PGA Tour star Joaquin Niemann is set to play in his first major championship as a professional. The former number one amateur golfer in the world turned pro after his year’s Master. With his solid play on tour, Niemann joins the rare group of successful recent amateur golfers( Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm) to bypass the Web.com Tour and earn a PGA Tour card while starting out the season with zero status on tour. Niemann gained entry into this week’s event via a special invite from the PGA and will look to build on what has already been a great season. In his 10 professional starts this season, Niemann has posted 6 top 25 or better finishes and has been in the mix to win multiple times late on the weekend. Priced down due to the talent level in this field, Niemann represents a great roster option for salary relief in GPP’s for the PGA Championship. While it’s still very early in terms of figuring out what type of player Niemann will eventually turn out to be, this young golfer has gained strokes on the field tee to green in every start this season and should fit this course well in terms of ball striking ability. Poor play around the greens and inconsistent putting has held Niemann back at times this season, but his excellent tee to green game should lead to the ability to more than pay off his salary.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Uh-Oh, Happy Learned how to Putt
Stanley the manley nearly won last week despite a very ugly four putt that the network decided to show over and over again. His game seems to be trending into form at just the right time. The majors are typically won by the elite golfers, but every once in a while, we will see a mid-tier golfer step up and take down a PGA Championship (Jason Dufner and Jimmy Walker have both won this event in the last five years). Stanley has always been known as an elite ball striker, but he’s actually been a decent putter this season. He’s currently ranked 55th in strokes gained putting, which is a massive jump from being ranked 159th last season. He’s a good bet to make the cut and unlike a lot of golfers in this price range, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the final page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Gary the Goat Visits the Land of Wood
Woodland was a DFS darling early in the season. He kept reeling off great finishes and he finally broke through with a win at the Waste Management Open. As we see so often, after his win there was a natural letdown. He took his foot off the pedal a bit and coasted for a few months, missing a number of cuts in the process. The off the tee game was still good, but his irons were losing strokes to the field in almost every tournament. He seems motivated once again and we are starting to see the stats trend in the right direction. Over his last four events that had ShotLink data, he’s gained 12 strokes on approaches and 21 strokes tee to green. If the course is playing soft, this could turn into a bomb and gouge type of deal and we know Woodland can get it out there nearly as far as anyone on tour.
This Mad Scientist has Burned Many Bridges
I listen to as many golf podcasts as possible throughout the week. When it comes to NFL, NBA, or MLB, I get burnt out pretty quickly listening to others break down a slate. But with golf, I never seem to get sick of the content. Despite listening to hours and hours of analysis and picks, I am still terrible at gauging ownership. I bring this up because we currently have DeChambeau at 7% ownership in our projections, which would be fantastic. I honestly thought it would be closer to 15%. I hope that I am wrong and that people’s hate for the mad golf scientist will help keep his ownership down. Despite his injury at the John Deere, despite his blowup on the range at the Open Championship, and despite his childish actions in Germany, he’s one of my favorite plays of the week. He was the only golfer in the WGC event last week to post progressively better finishes every round — 75, 69, 68, and 67. He’s an absolute grinder that doesn’t have a big weakness in his game. This course should really set up well for him, even if he can’t have a compass in his pocket.
Rinse, Repeat.
I haven’t seen the Simpsons in many years, but I always think of Bart writing on the chalkboard. For me, this is what I would write: Play Casey at majors. Play Casey at majors. Play Casey at majors. Over and over again. While he hasn’t won a major, he’s always a great bet to make the cut, he has numerous top ten and top 20 finishes, and he always seems underpriced given how deep the fields are in majors. He didn’t have the best finish at the Open Championship, but unlike many big names, he did make the cut. Plus, he has never had the best track record on links courses. He’s one of the best total drivers of the ball and he’s one of the best with long irons. Those two should really come in handy this week at Bellerive Country Club. He’s always a popular target in majors (for good reason), but he’s the good kind of chalk.
The Utah Connection
Finau is one of my favorite golfers on tour. Not only is he from my neck of the woods (not many famous athletes come from Utah), but he’s shown an ability to play well on any golf course. He can club down on the accuracy courses, he can play well overseas on links golf, and he obviously can bomb and gouge with the best of them. He has played in all three of the majors so far this season and has a top ten in every single one of them. He’s been knocking on the door of majors and regular PGA Tour events all season. A player that is ranked in the top 30 in the world needs his best win on tour to be something other than the Puerto Rico Classic. Even if Finau doesn’t win, he should be able to pay off this cheap price tag. He’s long off the tee, he’s a scorer, and he’s surprisingly ranked 12th in this field in bogey avoidance.
Iron Game is Finally Coming Around
I’m typically not a Day backer. He gains most of his strokes on and around the greens, which are the two most volatile statistics on a weekly basis. Anyone can make a few putts or chip in a few times throughout the course of a week, but you don’t see shorter hitters suddenly leading the field in driving distance. The reasoning behind the pick is that his tee to green game is starting to come around. He’s had a nice year off the tee, but his irons have given him fits. Last week at the WGC-Bridgestone, he gained over four strokes on approaches, which was his best mark of the year. We know he has distance and we know he’s going to be one of the best putters in the field, so if the irons are firing again this week, we could easily see Day win his third tournament of the year and his second PGA Championship in the last four seasons.
Noto's Pick to Win
Rahm is my pick to win this week. In fact, this is the first tournament all year that I’m willing to push most of my Rahm chips to the center of the table. I’ve been avoiding him at majors and at the Players because he’s such a hot head that when things don’t go his way, he tends to string together bogeys and doubles. We saw this at the U.S. Open and again at the Open Championship, where he was three under after Thursday’s round, but still managed to miss the cut. The PGA Championship seems like a great place for Rahm to break through with his first major. It typically requires length off the tee and it typically doesn’t play as hard as the other majors. I’ve read a number of course breakdowns this week and while there will be plenty of bogeys, I’m not sure we will see many big numbers that can take a golfer out of contention completely. This should play right into Rahm’s skill set. Despite losing six strokes putting last week at the WGC event, he still managed to finish in a tie for 17th. Something tells me that his putter isn’t going to stay cold for much longer.