DFS Alerts
Seamus Power needs to play well in order to keep his card
As the last official tournament prior to the FedEx Cup race, The Wyndham Championship represents a place to gain both valuable points in the season-long race and to also possibly secure a 2019 PGA Tour card. Currently ranked in the 123rd position in the FedEx Cup race, Seamus Power needs to make the cut this week if he has any hopes of retaining his card for next season. While Power has struggled to find consistent form this year he can build on his experiences from last season to hopefully gain confidence and play well this week. At this very point last year, Power entered the week needing to play well if he had any hopes of retaining his card. Unfortunately for Power, A made cut, but an MDF finish resulted in him finishing in the 130th position in the year-end standings. Power had to rely on a reshuffle to get into any and all tour starts this season, but if he plays well this week then 31-year-old Irishman will have the luxury of getting to set his schedule next season as well as getting a chance to play in his first ever FedEx Cup playoff event. Will no real standout value available this week, Power at a discount makes sense as a GPP flyer. A made cut with solid play on the weekend means a tour card for Power next season, and for the DFS community, that type of play would more than pay off his salary for the week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Side With the Talent
Watney doesn’t really pop statistically this week, but not a lot of the value plays do in a weak field event. As such, I’m more inclined to simply go off talent when we get this low, at Watney has plenty of that. He also ranks above average in this field in ball striking and strokes gained putting, so you could do worse at this price area. While he was cut last year at this event, his previous two trips to Sedgefield yielded a 31st and a 5th place finish. Watney is riding a streak of five current made cuts in a row and is 18-for-22 on the season, so there’s plenty of value in his dirt cheap price tag.
Mid-Range Upside at Reasonable Ownership
Here is my favorite GPP play of the week. Suri does not get the national attention he deserves, and he certainly doesn’t get as much attention as some of the other rising stars on the PGA Tour. Much of that can be easily attributed to the fact that Suri has more pedigree on the European Tour than on the PGA Tour. That same narrative might ring true with DFS players, as there are plenty that don’t really know that much about Suri. He’s more mature than some think (he is 27 years old; not a teenager), and he’s a pretty darn good golfer, too. Heck, even the PGA Championship leaderboard had him pegged wrong, as Suri posted a screenshot of a Jason Day photo that was shown next to Suri’s name on the leaderboard. This rising start finished inside the top 30 in each of the last two majors, and it would not be a surprise to see him contend this week in an ugly field. Shhhhhhhhh.
Warm Up That Flat Stick
If a tournament forecasts to be a birdie fest, I don’t mind grabbing some shares of Henley. He pops off the page for me statistically this week, with fantastic ranks in total driving (29th), ball striking (24th), and strokes gained putting (46th). He is always capable of heating up with the flat stick, and he rebounded with a couple decent rounds after a bad start at the PGA Championship last week. His lackluster performances in the majors might keep his ownership in check a bit, but this is the perfect time to pounce. There’s winning upside if his putter gets going, and I like him as a solid pick for a top ten this week.
He Named His Daughter Wyndham!
There’s pretty much no way around the fact that we have an awful field this week. Only ONE golfer ranked inside the top 25 in the FedEx Cup standings will be playing this week in Charlotte, making this one of the weakest field events we have seen in quite some time. On the high end, Simpson makes sense as the top play on the board. Even though he carries a high price tag, it’s hard to argue against him in this weak field. He is second on the all-time money list at this event and has six top 15 finishes in nine career starts here. He’s a local native and even has a daughter named Wyndham. Nobody in this field can top that. Top 20 finishes in the last two majors certainly cement his case, too. He’s here to stay.
They don't Call him T-Dunks for Nothing
Duncan is one of the worst putters in the field. Let me get that out of the way early, so that you are prepared for a lot of short misses on Shot Tracker. With that said, he also leads the field in strokes gained approach, so maybe he’ll just hit the ball close enough to where we don’t have to sweat those putts. We rarely see one of the best ball strikers in the field priced this low. Granted, most of Duncan’s success this season has come in weaker events, but that’s not really a knock on him this week. He’s going to give himself plenty of birdie looks this week, it will come down to whether or not he can capitalize on them.
He used to Rock a Mean Mustache
Wagner is not a big name in golf, so he should fly under the radar this week. There will be some (like myself) that peg him as a strong play. He has good course history (two top 25s in the last two seasons), he has good form (six straight cuts made with four top 35 finishes in a row), and he tends to play his best on these shorter courses where accuracy off the tee means more than distance. He’s one of the best putters in the field and the rest of his statistics are above-average in every single category. We currently have him projected at less than 10% ownership, which seems like a steal for a golfer that checks all of the boxes at such a cheap price point.
He's got those Big Eyes on the Prize
Kirk is another player that is far too cheap on DraftKings this week. I have him ranked as my 13th golfer overall, yet he’s the 30th most expensive golfer on DraftKings. I’m not complaining, but I am going to load up on Kirk in all formats. He’s been very consistent this season, especially with his irons. He’s ranked third in this field in strokes gained on approach and 15th in the key par four range (400-450 yards). Typically, when we get down into this price range, we are looking for golfers that can make the cut. Every once in a while, there is a golfer that could actually contend. Kirk is a safe bet to make the cut and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in one of the final few pairings on Sunday.
Who Says Old Men Can't Score?
Stricker is too cheap this week on DraftKings. He could easily be priced in the $9,000 range and still be a strong play. In fact, I have him ranked as my ninth best golfer of the week (which you will see in the video). He needs a strong week in order to qualify for the playoffs, as he currently sits in 141st in the FedEx Cup rankings. When we think of courses where accuracy off the tee is at a premium and where the scoring will come down to iron play and putting, how do we not like Stricker here? Especially a motivated one. Even though he’s getting up there in age, he can still score with these young bucks. He’s ranked 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage and 12th in DraftKings scoring.
Just Need a Little Moore from the Putter
Moore is my pick to win this week. We’ve had a rocky relationship so far this season, but hopefully we can reconcile and get back on the right path. He’s never been a terrible putter throughout his career, but he hasn’t gotten anything to fall this season. The good news is that his tee to green game has been impeccable. He has gained at least six strokes tee to green in six of his last ten events. He’s basically one good putting week away from breaking through. He’s always had the talent and he’s always fared well on these shorter courses where distance isn’t required to play well. He clearly has an eye for the course with three straight made cuts, highlighted by a T10 back in 2015.
Billy Ho is Finding some Form
Horschel isn’t my pick to win this week, but I do have him on my outright card. Earlier in the year when he had high finishes, it was all thanks to a red-hot putter. I tend to avoid golfers that are relying heavily on putting and instead target golfers that have a strong tee to green game that are only one decent putting week away from winning. The reason that I like Horschel so much this week is his iron play. Over his last five events on tour, he has gained 15 strokes on approaches. Off the tee game isn’t quite as important this week, so I like Horschel’s chances in a wedge and putting contest, especially since these are Bermuda greens (he’s from Florida). He clearly likes the course, as evidenced by his T5 here a few years back.
Joaquin the Dream
We have a bit of a letdown after the final major of the year, but we still have fantasy golf this week, so I’m certainly not complaining. I had Niemann pegged as a fade last week, but will be hopping back on the talented young golfer this week. I will continue playing him on easy courses, as he’s been one of the best ball strikers on tour this season. He’s ranked seventh in the field in strokes gained approach, first in birdie or better percentage, and third in DraftKings’ scoring. We know he has upside, as he has already posted three top eight finishes in his last eight events on tour. It’s only a matter of time before he picks up his first win and it would make sense for him to do it in a weaker field event where the winning score will likely be around 20-under par.
Harold Varner gaining steam despite the price bump
Currently ranked in the 105th position in the FedEx Cup race and looking to salvage what by all admissions has been a poor season, Harold Varner enters this week with a bit of positive play by his side. Varner will tee it up this week having made four straight cuts including two top six or better finishes. Varner flashed his upside at both The Greenbriar and The John Deere by playing his way near the lead late on Sunday. With his good play factored in, Varner has received a significant price bump for The Wyndham Championship. At $8,900 on DraftKings, Varner is $1,500 higher than any other point this season. Since the start of the 2017 season, Varner has only been priced above 8k once, so this week’s adjustment in price appears to be very big in terms of inflation. Early week ownership numbers show Varner to be one of the big gainers in terms of steam, so for now, it appears that many in the DFS community are behind the good play displayed by Varner over the last few weeks. While his game certainly appears to be trending in the right direction, inflated ownership at a significant price bump could create a great spot to avoid potential bad chalk.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership DraftKings projections are live and Brian Gay ranks as a top play
Multiple PGA Tour winner Brian Gay heads into this week’s Wyndham Championship with a chance to post his best season in quite some time. Riddled by injuries and inconsistent play, Gay will look to make his deepest run in the FedEx Cup race since the 2009 season. Currently ranked in the 53rd position in the FedEx Cup standings, Gay heads into this week with positive momentum by his side. Over his last nine starts, Gay has only missed one cut while posting 5 top 25 or better finishes. Always known for accuracy over distance, Gay should play well on a track that rewards accurate golf shot. At $7,100 the combination of price and recent performance has Gay listed as the number one overall player in terms of Pt/$/K on in projections for the week. In a weaker than normal field, Gay has a great opportunity to gain some valuable FedEx Cup points this week and increase his chance of making it to the Tour Championship in less than a month.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Grayson Murray set to return from injury
Twitter sensation and DFS darling Grayson Murray is set to return to the tour this week after missing two months with an injured shoulder. Murray was close to making his return in a title defense at The Baracuda Championship two weeks ago, so it’s not a big surprise to him in this week’s field. When healthy Murray can pile up DK birdie points with the best in the game. Long lay off’s are never an easy thing to handicap, and with a player like Murray, it’s ok to really take the wait and see approach in terms of using him in DFS. If anything this week, Murray should be considered as a deep sleeper in GPP’s. There is still a chance that Murray could decide to not play this week, but it’s worth noting that he did not pull his name out of the hat on Monday. Currently ranked inside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings, it appears that Murry will play this week with hopes of playing a few more events prior to the end of the season.