DFS Alerts
Weather update for The RBC Canadian Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report is now up in the main forum, and it looks like players could have to deal with wind and or rain over the first two days. When looking at the weather, the potential for rain when it’s of the scattered thunderstorm variety has less effect on golfers than that of the wind. Even though there is a chance of the Thursday afternoon wave having to deal with rain the wind forecast for both days appears to be pretty much the same negating any true edge used by looking at the weather. As always we will keep an eye on the weather and update any news as needed before lock, but for now, it appears safe to play golfers in either tee time wave.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report
Charley Hoffman looks to build on a solid course history
In what is most likely the last tour event at Glen Abbey G.C. Charley Hoffman heads into the week with a very strong course history. In addition to his runner-up finish at last year’s RBC Canadian Open, Hoffman has 4 top 30 or better finishes in 8 tries at this event. The mid-tier pricing for this week leaves a lot to be desired, but Hoffman stands out as the clear-cut top-end option amongst experts this week. Always known for his ability to get hot and make a ton of birdies, Hoffman is 33 under par over his last 12 rounds at Glen Abbey G.C. With three straight top 20 or better finishes in his last three starts, Hoffman comes into this week in what appears to be very good form. Roster construction could force many in the industry to overlook the mid-tier pricing range this week, but Hoffman has both the current form and course history worthy of a look in a wide variety of builds for this year’s RBC Candian Open.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Sergio Garcia in need of a good week
International superstar Sergio Garcia is in the middle of an awful slump. In danger of falling out of the top 20 in the world for this first time since the 2010 season, Garcia heads into this week having missed three straight cuts in major championships this season. With the Ryder Cup just around the corner, Garcia has a ton of work to do if he wants to make the team on his own accord. Currently ranked in the 12th position in the World Ryder Cup standings, Garcia will need a few strong weeks if he hopes to avoid needing one of the 4 available captains picks to make this year’s Ryder Cup squad. Never known as a crowd favorite amongst American fans, it’s no surprise that Garcia with poor form is trending towards a very low ownership number for this week’s RBC Canadian Open. Garcia was close to making the cut at last week’s British Open, and we saw that with Justin Rose those who made the cut last week still had a chance to play their way up the leaderboard on the weekend. Prior to the missed cut last week, Garcia had posted an 8th and 12th place finish in his last two starts, so there is an argument that his form is better than most would credit. While most will take the wait and see approach with Garcia, the predicted low ownership number makes this a great spot to buy low on what is still a very capable golfer. With extra motivation in place to salvage his season and earn a spot on the Ryder Cup team, Garcia becomes a great player to target over the final few weeks of the season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Stewart Cink looks to keep up his solid form
Six-time PGA Tour winner and past major champion Stewart Cink heads into this week’s RBC Canadian Open with a bit of momentum by his side. Currently ranked in the 66th position in the FedEx Cup standings, Cink last four starts on tour have resulted in a 2nd, 4th, 23rd and 24th place finish. With plenty to play for at this point in the season, Cink stands out as a great source of value for The RBC Canadian Open. Making his fifth consecutive start at Glen Abbey G.C. Cink has 3 made cuts including a T5 in 2015. With other younger players in the same price range gaining a ton of traction this week, Cink makes for an interesting pivot play in almost any format this week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Back to Where it All Started
Dahmen and I haven’t gotten along that well this season. The first time I rostered him was at the St. Jude Classic. He missed the cut that week and followed it with another missed cut at the Travelers. Sandwiched in between those two missed cuts are seven top 25 finishes. His tee to green game has been spectacular, gaining 13, 9, and 12 strokes in his last three events. He did miss the cut here last year, but he’s obviously a much better golfer at this point of his career. He started his career on the Mackenzie Tour and Tweeted that he’s excited to be back playing in Canada where it all started. I’m trusting the recent form and his ability to score on the par fives. Let’s mend this relationship, Mr. Bucket Hat.
This Big Hitter is Flying Under the Radar
Woodland hasn’t been in great form since taking down the Waste Management Open. The good news is that his off the tee game has been strong ever since and his irons are finally starting to show some signs of life. He gained five strokes on approaches at the Memorial and then gained a half stroke at the Quicken Loans. He should easily reach these four par fives in two, which will give him plenty of eagle chances. He finished in a tie for fourth here last year, despite losing three strokes on the greens. If he has an average putting week, I like his chances to contend. The best part is that we currently have him projected to be less than 10% owned, which makes him an appealing play in tournaments.
Time for this Bomber to Claim his Second PGA Tour Win
With the Barbasol Championship ending on Monday, the Vegas odds weren’t released until after the salaries came out. Odds are typically a big part of the pricing algorithm, especially on DraftKings. Something tells me that Finau would have been priced up if the odds would have been released earlier. He’s 15 to 1 to win the tournament and he’s coming into the week in great form. In fact, Finau now has a top ten at every major so far this season. There are few that hit the ball farther than Finau and he’s ranked third or better in this field in birdie or better percentage, par five scoring, and greens in regulation. He clearly has an eye for the course, as he has made the cut here all three times with a T5 here last season. He’s been knocking on the door all season, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through with another win.
Running Away from the Field
Johnson missed the cut at the Open Championship and ruined many DFS lineups in the process. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. If he would have just bogeyed number 18 on both Thursday and Friday, he would have been around on the weekend and at that point, who knows what could have happened (we all saw what Justin Rose was able to do). Before that, Johnson hadn’t finished outside of the top 20 since last September. That’s as consistent as any golfer on tour. In this field, DJ is ranked fourth off the tee, third in approach, and first in birdie or better percentage. He has yet to pick up a win here, but he has three top ten finishes in his last three tries, including two seconds. We all know his father in law is Canadian (Wayne Gretzky), so maybe DJ will have a little extra motivation in this one. This is a great week to take a stars and scrubs approach with lineups, as there are a lot of good cheap plays available.
Just Too Cheap
The price tag is surprisingly cheap here, and Varner is one of my favorite value picks of the week. He is a bomb-and-gouge player off the tee who just wants to grip it and rip it out there. He is coming off back to back top ten finishes and is playing the best golf of his PGA Tour career. The $7,100 price tag on DraftKings is an absolute steal. He’s long off the tee (17th in driving distance) and also well above average in ball striking, so the tee to green game plays well, especially with his improved current form. Varner is playing much better now than what his full season statistics will show. Buy low while you still can.
On the Cusp of a Big Performance
BOMBS AWAY. When I went to the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago, I was following Keith Mitchell’s group around for a couple of rounds. Mitchell couldn’t decide whether he wanted to hit an iron or a driver off the tee on a short-ish par four, and eventually he landed on “Let’s just bomb it.” That was the quote to his caddie. I love that attitude, especially on a course like this one. He can make birdies in bunches and is coming off a 7th place finish at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. Mitchell’s price is very reasonable compared to the other golfers in this range, as he ranks 7th on Tour in driving distance and 18th in par five scoring this year. Fire him up for a lot of upside in GPP formats.
Rocketing Up the Leaderboards
How about this kid? He doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify, but, if he did, he would rank inside the top ten in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach. That would result in some pretty darn good tee-to-green metrics. Niemann is quickly growing into one of the top young stars in the game, and he has five top 25 finishes in his last six starts. Like the aforementioned Finau, he also racks up the fantasy points. Over his last three events, Niemann has made 59 birdies, which averages out to almost 20 per tournament! That’s incredible, especially since he is playing most of these layouts for the first time competitively. A shootout suits him well, and this week should be no different. Continue to ride him until he cools down, which I wouldn’t expect to happen anytime soon unless fatigue sets in. Given that he was able to rest and relax a week ago without an Open invite, he should be all systems go this week.
One of the Top Point Per Dollar Options
If you want to eat some chalk on the high end, there’s little reason to doubt Tony Finau at this point. He ranks 3rd on the Tour in driving distance and 2nd in par five scoring this year, and he has become a top 25 machine on a weekly basis. He is coming off an impressive showing at The Open Championship last week and also came inside the top five here a year ago. He’s a perfect fir for this course and is a good bet to rack up a few eagles on these reachable par fives. Finau scores fantasy points in bunches, and this type of event is great for him. He will be popular, but I’ll gladly grab some shares and differentiate my lineups in other spots — especially on DK & FDRAFT where his price tag comes at a significant discount from the other top names.
Loving a Non-Winner
He didn’t peg it last week so he’s fresh. He also arrives with cuts made in 13 of his last 14 starts. He ranks 10th in this week’s field in terms of strokes gained tee-to-green (L36 and L50 rounds). On top of his consistent play, he’s also a good fit at this course that features easy par 5s. IF we look at his nine best finishes on TOUR, four of them have come on courses where the eagle rate is inside the top 10 of all PGA TOUR courses. Glen Abbey also fits that bill. Looking recently, he’s beat the field average on par 5s in 10 of his last 12 starts. He also has winning pedigree on the Web Tour so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him finally grab a win.
Patience with Pedigree
Missed Cut. Missed Cut. Missed Cut. Not the way the PANDA was expecting to open his PGA TOUR career. He was a prolific winner as an amateur and that skill is not one you can easily teach. Looking at his stats, he’s lapping the field when it comes to driving distance. That should play well this week on a course where you can typically air it out. Second, he’s posted better GIR numbers in two of his three starts. That is another stat I’m looking at closely this week since the course has some smaller greens. Lastly, he’s beat the field average on par 5s in all three of his starts. This week’s layout has four par 5s on the scorecard and all of them are scoreable. That should lead to plenty of fantasy goodness from Xiong. As long as he plays the weekend, he should easily shatter this price. A good option to sprinkle in GPPs.
Eagle-Eye Cherry Bomb
When looking for correlated events this week, most of the tournaments that popped up were events that are played on courses with feastable par 5s. I then dove into scoring at those events and Harkins is one that stood out near the top. He grabbed two eagles at the Sony Open, picked up another two at the CareerBuilder, and two more at the Farmers. Those were three events that graded out as possible pointers for me. On top of that, he also has two other starts this season where he’s grabbed two eagles on the week. That is the kind of scoring upside that will lead to crushing this salary as long as he makes it to the weekend.