DFS Alerts
Under the Radar is Right where we want him
Rodgers should fly under the radar this week because he never really pops in any of the statistical models. This tends to happen to good putters because us DFS players love the tee to green game. Putting is always the most volatile stat, so many choose to leave it out of their models completely. I like Rodgers for a number of reasons. He hired a new swing coach and has not missed a cut since, posting finishes of T8, T41, T26, and T53 over his last four events. He’s good off the tee and he’s one of the best putters in this field, which should be a lethal combination at this course. While he doesn’t have any high finishes at this event, he is 3-for-3 in cuts made.
Much Better Course Fit... Expecting a Nice Bounce-Back
Holmes burned a lot of bridges with his missed cut last week, but we shouldn’t be surprised. TPC Potomac requires you to be deadly accurate off the tee and that’s never been one of his strong suits. This week’s course (The Old White TPC) is much more open off the tee and every year is ranked near the top in terms of driving accuracy. His ability to bomb it out there will be a major advantage this week, especially if his wedge game continues to be dialed in. He’s good on par fours, he’s good on par fives, and he makes a lot of birdies. The one negative is his putting, but as we have seen a number of times this season, that can flip at any time. He clearly has an eye for the course, posting four straight top 30 finishes.
We have a Potential Breakthrough on our Hands
Niemann is my pick to win this week, although it’s clear that he’s becoming a trendy play both as an outright bet and for DFS. He’s going to be highly owned, which is a bit crazy considering the fact that he’s only made four cuts as a professional and he’s $9,700 on DraftKings. Niemann has already established himself as one of the best ball strikers on tour. When looking at this field alone, he’s ranked eighth in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach. His one weakness is his around the green game, but hopefully that won’t be an issue since these greens are easy to hit. Since he is a rookie, he has been seeing all of these courses for the first time, but he actually played here as an amateur last season and finished T29. This is the one stop where he actually has familiarity with the golf course.
Paying a Premium for Birdie Making
It’s hard to believe that Finau is the most expensive golfer this week. He’s never been the odds-on favorite to win a tournament, but that doesn’t mean that he’s a bad play. He’s a scorer, so even if he doesn’t end up winning, there is a good chance that he can still be one of the top fantasy producing plays of the week. Statistically, he’s a great fit for the course — he’s ranked 16th or better in this field in approach, birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, and par five scoring. When you include everything else, he grades out as the number one play in my model. The fact that he’s so expensive could help keep ownership reasonable, although I doubt it will dip below 15%. He has a good track record at this event, finishing T13 in 2015 and T7 here last season.
Brandon Hagy no longer in the field
Brandon Hagy withdrew from A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier early on Tuesday afternoon and will be replaced by Dicky Pride. Hagy had not yet played in a PGA Tour event yet this season as he is recovering from a wrist injury. Due to the timing of the move Pride will not be available in DFS pricing tools this week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Will MacKenzie no longer in the field
Having not played in a PGA Tour event in over a year Will MacKenzie should safely be off the radar this week. With only sporadic playing time on the Web.Com Tour this season, MacKenzie has all but disappeared from the professional golf scene. Apparently not ready to return to competitive action, MacKenzie has taken a pass on this week’s event and will be replaced by Brian Davis.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Five minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
Five minutes until roster lock and no major news to report.Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed.
Weather update for The Quicken Loans National
For the second straight week, it looks as though the weather will almost no effect in your roster selection process. RotoGrinders own Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has a forecast up in the main forum, and overall it looks like great weather for golf in Potomac, MD. With winds not expected to break the 10mph range at any point over the first two days and only a small chance of rain on Thursday morning, golfers in both tee time waves should see a very similar golf course. As always we will keep an eye on the weather up until lock but for now, you can pick freely between either tee time wave this week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Tiger Woods searching for answers on the green
The Tiger Woods comeback story has somewhat been slowed down by a baulky putter over the last month of the season. Currently ranked in the 175th position in putts made inside of five feet, Woods showed up at this week’s Quicken Loans National with a new look putter on Tuesday. Historically not a player that changes his putter much, Woods tired out new flat sticks last week in the Bahamas and is toying around with a new TaylorMade mallet putter ahead of this week’s event. While it is unlikely that Woods will ditch the putter he used to win 13 of his 14 majors, it is worth noting that this future hall of fame golfer is searching for answers. Woods feels like the new look putter allows for a bit more swing in his stroke, and sometimes all a good player needs is a different look from time to time. For now, I would bet that Woods uses his regular putter this week, but would not be surprised if a poor putting tournament forces a switch later down the road.
As reported by: PGA Tour Charles Howell ranks as a top value play amongst our experts
Charles Howell heads into this week with a bit of momentum. Having not missed a cut since the Honda Classic in February, Howell really stands out as a great play in all formats this week. With 12 top 25 or better finishes this season ( 7 since February), Howell is on pace for another great season. Currently ranked inside the top 40 in the FedEx Cup race, Howell will need to continue his good play if he hopes to make his first Tour Championship since the 2011 season. Value is always a premium, but in a week where DraftKings has bumped the price of many players, Howell stands out as both a great source of value and upside. Howell heads into this week with positive course history on his side, as he finished 2nd in this event last year.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Time for a Breakthrough?
Putnam isn’t going to stand out as a good play in any model that looks at long term form or statistics. He’s ranked 148th in the world, but he’s made a huge leap in those rankings over the last few months. Based on current form alone, there are only a handful of golfers with better form than Putnam. Get this — Putnam grades out as the top golfer in my model based on statistics alone. He’s ranked inside the top 20 in approach, ball striking, birdie or better, and par four scoring. The last time we saw him, he finished in solo second behind Dustin Johnson at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Maybe this is the week he can finally break through with a win.
Great Bounce-Back Spot
We’ve had some really bad chalk bust over the last couple of tournaments. We had Ben Crane and Joel Dahmen a few weeks ago (and yes I wrote up both) and we had Pan last week. Anytime a mediocre golfer becomes the chalk, it makes sense to fade them given the volatility of golf in general. Pan is in a great bounce-back spot this week and is a great pivot off of the chalky Adam Hadwin, whose tee to green game has been trending in the wrong direction. Pan is cheap, his statistics match the course nicely, and he’s seen this course before. The best time to hop on is when everyone else hops off.
Loads of Talent at a Cheap Price
Woodland feels way underpriced in this field, especially on DraftKings ($8,100). After his win at the Waste Management Open, his form fell off the face of the earth for the next few months. I’ve been waiting and waiting for his irons to come back around and it finally looks like we can fire him up with confidence again. At the Memorial, he gained five strokes on approaches and then posted a solid finish at the U.S. Open. While he didn’t play here last season, he’s a nice fit for the course. Over the course of his career, he has always played well on shorter tracks that require golfers to club down off the tee.
Feasting on a Weak Field
I’m on record of saying that Tiger is going to win this season and that when he does, I’m going to be there. He’s the one player that I can’t seem to get away from. Bias aside, he’s a strong play this week in all formats. He is ranked first in the field in strokes gained on approaches and we’ve seen him compete on shorter tracks all season where he doesn’t have to hit many drivers. He can hit his driving iron 280+, which is plenty long for most of these holes. The club that has been letting him down recently has been his putter, but he’s always been great on fast greens. These bentgrass greens at TPC Potomac are expected to run at a 13 on the stimpmeter. Tiger has winning upside in the weakest field he’s played in all season.
Stars and Scrubs Approach this Week
For the last couple of months, I’ve leaned toward the balanced approach for lineup building. That all changes this week. Even though I don’t feel great about the value plays, I don’t feel great about the mid-range either. With this being a difficult course, I want as much winning equity into my lineup as I can find and that leads me to a stars and scrubs approach. Fowler is the overwhelming favorite this week (6-to-1), he’s the class of the field, and he needs a win to kickstart his season. He’s still in search of his first major, so he’d love to head into the Open Championship with confidence. Fowler doesn’t have a weakness in his game and he tends to play difficult courses well. He played well here last season, finishing in a tie for third.