DFS Alerts
Bill Haas looks to build on a good week
Although he did not win the Dean & Deluca Invitational, Bill Haas provided us another example of a player performing well despite poor recent form. Poor play and missed cuts were very much the theme for the winners of the Players Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson. Golf is hard, and PGA tour golf is even harder. Sometimes it’s just a little spark that gets a slumping player back on track, and while it’s hard to predict when and how that momentum will take place, it’s still very important to look past current game logs when rostering a player. Wins are never easy to predict, and the recent form of both Si Woo Kim and Billy Horschel would have never lead anyone to believe that they were close to winning a PGA tour event.When you take a look at over all pedigree of a player, you have the opportunity to compare recent form with that player’s potential. Both Horschel and Kim have displayed the ability to not only compete, but win at the highest level. Kim’s 2016 campaign featured a win and sixteen top 25 or better finishes. Horschel is not only a multiple PGA tour winner, but he is also a past FedEx Cup Champion. Both players had struggled to find form in 2017. Both players’ wins came with little or no DFS ownership or fanfare. Getting in the habit of looking past the recent box scores is a great way to really sharpen your research skills. Bill Haas is also multiple PGA tour wins and is a past FedEx Cup Champion. Up until last week, Haas had missed three straight cuts. Recent form has driven his price down to a very respectable level. Haas looks to carry over the momentum from the Dean & Deluca Invitational to this week’s Memorial Tournament. In 11 starts at the Memorial Haas has only missed two cuts and has posted 3 top 20 or better finishes. His very affordable salary makes Haas and excellent option in a stars and scrubs roster build.
As reported by: RotoGrinders
Charl Schwartzel set to return from wrist injury
Charl Schwartzel was forced to withdraw from the Byron Nelson due to the effects of a lingering wrist injury. The South African had the unfortunate experience of having a pro-am partner hit an errant tee shot that ricocheted off a tree hitting him in the wrist. Schwartzel sat out last week’s Dean & Deluca to rest the injured wrist. With his status for this week still up in the air, Schwartzel took to social media to report his intent to play this week. He posted a picture of his wrist with a bag of ice on it, and claimed that he is doing better and that he is looking forward to this special week. In nine attempts at Memorial, Schwartzel has a very impressive five top 25 or better finishes. Reasonably priced across the industry, Schwartzel could make for a very low owned GPP flyer. The threat of a nagging wrist injury could keep his ownership levels down, and this past major winner still offers a ton of upside. We will continue to monitor his injury status up until roster lock.
As reported by: Charl Schwartzel via Twitter FanDuel Golf is back
The new FanDuel golf scoring system and pricing came out today. To the delight of many in the community FanDuel removed the round specific roster requirements. The new golf product will now feature picking a team of 8 golfers. Points are rewarded for both scoring and finishing positions. Much like other golf products, the scoring system looks to favor golfers who make a ton of birdies and or eagles. FanDuel has differentiated its product by penalizing golfers for higher scores. A golfer who makes a double bogey or worse will loose almost as many points as he gains for making a birdie. With the removal of round requirements all golfers will now receive finishing points. The increase of rosters spots from six to eight will give FanDuel’s golf product a different feel than other sites. Getting a full team of six golfers through to the weekend is already a very hard task, so the addition of two players to the mix should provide for a very interesting scoring system. Picking a team of golfers that fits under the $60,000 salary could put more of an emphasis on identifying site specific value. Creating a roster that fits in the desired top-tiered players will force gamers to spend a bit more time finding the value plays for the week. This week Kevin Chappell looks to be an early favorite for such value. At $6,900 on FanDuel this 29th ranked player in the world accounts for 11.5 percent of the salary cap. At first glance this might not seem like much, but Chappell’s $7,800 price on DraftKings will cost you 15.6% of your cap. The almost five precent difference is one of the greater values in this price range. With one win already this season, Chappell appears to have found the form that put him in contention for much of last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Jordan Spieth putter update
Jordan Spieth’s putter change only lasted a week. During his time with the media on Wednesday, Spieth reveled that he has decided to make the change back to his trusty 009 putter. Spieth sited a setup issues with his old putter as a reason for the change. After a missed cut at the Byron Nelson, Spieth was able to put in some extra work on the weekend and began to putt well with his old friend. The mallet style putter used at the Byron Nelson helped Spieth fix his putter alignment issues. The defending Colonial champion will have his old putter in the bag as he prepares to get his game back on track. It’s worth noting that Spieth’s tee time falls in the late Thursday/Early Friday tee time wave. If the forecast holds then Spieth will have to play in a bit tougher conditions.
As reported by: Golf World Kevin Roth's official weather report for The Dean & Deluca
The first two rounds of the Dean & Deluca Invitational will feature warm spring winds. Roth predicts that first round wind speeds will start off at a very nice 10mph, but they will climb through the morning reaching a sustained 20mph by noon. Thursday afternoon will feature a steady dose of sustained wind speed near 25 mph. Predicted wind gust for late Thursday could end up in the 35 mph range. Friday will continue to be a very windy day. Players will start round two with a 15 to 20mph wind speed. The afternoon tee time wave will face winds in the 20mph range with a chance for gust around 30mph. Friday’s temp should also reach 100 degrees by late afternoon. Overall the players will have to deal with a lot of wind, and the best move might be to favor the Thursday AM/ Friday PM draw. If the forecast holds true then those players will play in the least amount of wind.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Jordan Spieth’s new putter
The fickle nature of golf can drive the best players in the world to make drastic changes. Last week Jordan Spieth took the traditional Anser style putter used in all of his PGA tour victories out of the bag and replaced it with a very different mallet style blade. Players will make changes for a variety of reasons, but almost always the change comes out of a desire to improve a struggling element of play. Spieth’s inconsistent putter play lead to this change, and even though he missed the cut at last week’s Byron Nelson it is still too early to make a judgment call on the equipment change. A few poor driver swings on the 16th hole resulted in Spieth’s missed cut at the Byron Nelson. As the defending champion of the Dean & Deluca Spieth will need to find all elements of this game in order to prevent his third missed cut in a row. Colonial Country Club could be the elixir needed to get Spieth back on track. In his four attempts at the Dean & Deluca Invitational Spieth has a very impressive scoring average of 67.35. In those four years, he has also never finished outside the top 15. Ownership levels are dropping on this defending champion, and this looks to be a great buy low spot for Spieth.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Dean & Deluca Weather Update
Spring time weather in Texas can be very unpredictable. Last week’s prediction of rainy playing conditions never really materialized. The Byron Nelson only had one small delay due to rain. The wind forecast for the week held true, and players from both tee time waves played in pretty much the same conditions. This week’s Dean & Deluca Invitational can expect a very similar wind pattern. The major difference this week is that the temperatures will rise, and with the exception of Sunday there should be very little rain. The first two rounds of the tournament will be very warm and windy, and at this time there appears to be no tee time wave advantage. Weather will update again prior to the start of the first round.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Zach Johnson's Inflated Price
Zach Johnson came out of nowhere to win the 2015 Open Championship at St. Andrews. His style of play seems to thrive in the underdog role. Johnson will never overpower a golf course; he instead relies on a solid short game and very timely putter. The hangover from winning The Open Championship has carried over for almost two years. Winless since the 2015 Open, Johnson has struggled with an inconsistent putter. For a player of Johnson’s caliber slumps are measured in wins. His 7 top 10 finishes in the last two years are nice for the bank account, but the true measure of success lies in tournament titles. Johnson is the sixth highest ranked golfer in terms of price for the Dean & Deluca. The combination of an elevated price and his less than desirable recent form makes Johnson a very popular fade. The fact that Johnson has probably the overall best course history and fit at Colonial will still not provide enough incentive for the community to roster him. Early ownership levels on Johnson are extremely low. Johnson is in the underdog role again, and he loves Colonial Country Club. Regardless of his form, this two-time Dean & Deluca champion always plays his best golf at Colonial. Johnson’s higher than normal price tag has created a great opportunity for an exceptional leverage play.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership A win on his home course
Ryan Palmer and his caddie James Edmonson have a unique relationship. They have a friendship forged from an early high school and collegiate battles. When Palmer turned pro out of college he chose to have Edmonson join him as a caddie. Over the years the two have paired for a very successful career. Both caddie and player are members of Colonial Country Club, and Edmonson holds the title of four-time club champion. Colonial week is a special time for both players, and even though Edmonson enjoys hearing the story of how he has more wins than his boss, there would be nothing sweeter than having Palmer win at his home course. Playing at his home course can bring extra pressure, but that has not stopped him before. Palmer has three top five finishes in this event, and he is coming into this week in pretty good form. Life has a funny way of putting things into perspective, and for a tour player, it’s often hard to put golf on the back burner. When his wife Jennifer was diagnosed with breast cancer last July Palmer took an extended break to be by her side. Palmer’s game was rusty when he returned to the tour, but as Jennifer’s health improved, so did his game. The Palmers report that Jennifer is doing great, and both life and golf are back to normal. After having to learn to deal with the stress of caring for a sick loved one, the stress of playing at your home course could seem a little less important.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Tony Finau emerges as a popular play
For the second week in a row Tony Finau looks to be one of the highest owned players in the field. Finau’s excellent Friday through Sunday play provided a great sense of relief to those who chose to roster him. At an ownership level of almost 21% Finau’s first round of 75 could have really endangered a large number of lineups for the Byron Nelson. This week’s early projections show that people comfortable backing Finau yet again. This very talented young player is having a great season, and his style of play produces a ton of DraftKings points. To win a GPP you often have to look at making the tough choice of fading a hot player. Popular plays are always a good place to start, and Finau’s ownership levels are somewhat over inflated. Last week is a perfect example of how a fade could have worked. Had Finau missed the cut, then a fifth of the field is drawing dead. His ability to rebound from an opening 75 only strengthened the Finau hype train. If you are looking to make a leverage play for the Dean & Deluca then I would suggest thinking about making a fade on the popular Finau. While his talent level is high, it’s not yet to the level of his projected ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Past Champion returns to the Dean & Deluca
Planning a PGA tour schedule has to be somewhat of a logistical nightmare. Players walk the fine line of trying to compete at all of the courses they like, all the while making sure they have enough time for family and rest. Barring an injury or some unforeseen issue, past champions typically return to the site of a victory. This week’s Dean & Deluca celebrates the return of a very popular two-time Champion Phil Mickelson. Lefty’s last visit to Colonial Country club took place in 2010. As 2009 champ Mickelson returned to defend his title, but poor play leads to a missed cut. As a 42 time winner on the PGA tour, it can be very hard to pick and choose the events you play in each year. For whatever reason Mickelson has decided to not play in this event for the last seven years. Motivation could stem from the desire to make it back into the winner’s circle. Mickelson’s last win came at The Open Championship in 2013. The 2017 season has seen a resurgence in his game, and Mickelson appears ready to win again on tour. In twelve events this season, Mickelson has a perfect cut record and a very respectable 8 top 25 finishes. This two-time Dean & Deluca champion returns to a venue where he knows how to win. Reasonably priced this week, Mickelson makes an excellent play in all formats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Field Update At The Dean & Deluca Invitational
Charl Schwartzel’s troublesome wrist injury forced him to withdraw during the third round of the AT&T Byron Nelson. The injury accrued earlier in the year when a Pro-Am partner’s tee shot bounced off a tree hitting Schwartzel in the wrist. The South African will miss this week’s Dean & Deluca Invitational, and his injury is worth monitoring moving forward. Schwartzel announced his withdrawal prior to DraftKings pricing, and his replacement in the field Xander Schauffele has been added to the list of available players. The Dean & Deluca is an Invitational tournament, and as of Monday evening, only 121players are scheduled to compete. The top 70 and ties will compete on the weekend, and due to the smaller size of the field, we could see a higher percentage of 6/6 lineups in play. Roster construction should always hinge on trying to pick the best players, but there often comes a time when we rationalize a certain player by just having the ability to make the cut. The smaller field and potential higher number of players making the cut lowers the value of just making it to the weekend. Gain an edge this week by using extra discretion during the roster building process.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weekend tee times adjusted for the Byron Nelson
Third round tee times for the AT&T Byron Nelson have been altered in order to miss morning storms. In order to fit the T.V schedule, players will play in threesomes starting at 10:00 A.M with play starting on both the first and tenth holes. Seventy six players made the cut this weekend, so the MDF rule will not come into play this weekend. Jason Kokrak second round 62 has him five shots clear of the field. In search of his first tour win, Kokrak hopes to continue the hot play over the weekend. Kokrak lack of experience in this situation could provide for a weekend of compelling golf. Winning on the PGA tour is never easy, and the world’s number one player Dustin Johnson leads a group of golfers ready to challenge Kokrak.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Updated Byron Nelson Weather report
Kevin Roth’s final weather forecast is now available in the RotoGrinders’s main forum. It looks like we are in for a wet and windy week of golf. Roth predicts that the same weather pattern for both Thursday and Friday. Both days should start off with winds in the 10-15 mph range, and as the day progresses the chance of storms and stronger winds should prevail. The timing of rain for Thursday and Friday could vary, but we should see storms on both days. Saturday and Sunday’s rounds will also feature breezy and wet conditions. Overall it looks that there is not much of an edge to stacking a tee time wave. If the weather gets bad, then you could give a slight bump to players that perform well in windy conditions.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Brooks Koepka recent sucess
The 2017 season has been very much a mixed bag for Brooks Koepka. A successful Ryder Cup can often serve as a great source of momentum for a player. Koepka absolutely crushed the Ryder Cup last fall and he was able to carry over that momentum into an early season second place finish. As the wrap around season moved into a new calendar year, Koepka’s form took a 180 degree turn for the worse. Like a few of his other fellow Nike staff members, Koepka struggled to find form with new equipment. This very talented player missed 4 out of six cuts to start the season, and poor iron play seemed to be the blame for his sluggish start. In 2016 Koepka finished the year as the 59th ranked player in the greens in regulation category. This year’s poor iron play has seen Koepka’s green in regulation percentage drop almost 4 points from 2016, leaving him in the 166th position in that category. A look at Koepka’s recent game log revels that he is starting to play better golf, but in this game looks are not everything. Koepka is still struggling to hit greens in regulation, but his putter is starting to really heat up. Two out of his last three events he has hit less than 60% of greens in regulation and he is still managing to compete at a high level. The thing that makes Koepka dangerous is that he can get hot and go low, and he is so long off the tee that he does not need to hit a bunch of greens in order to compete. Koepka’s second place finish showed what can happen when he keeps the ball in play and finds the green in regulation. That week he hit 75% of the greens in regulation and narrowly missed out on a victory. His erratic form and immense upside make Koepka an interesting GPP play for Byron Nelson. As his ownership levels rise during the week, it could be best to try match the potential predicted ownership levels. While a fade could certainly be in play, Koepka has enough upside to merit some exposure for the multiple roster player.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership