DFS Alerts
Wind and rain are in the forecast this week
The TPC Four Seasons will host the Byron Nelson for the last time. Months of preparation have gone into this event, and the early reports are that the golf course is in excellent shape. Weather always seems to play a role in this event, and early models indicate that we could once again have a golf tournament plagued by less than ideal conditions. Just two years ago it rained so hard that the course had to convert a par 4 hole into a par 3. Extreme weather does not appear to be a factor this week, but early models show that we could have wind and rain through out the week. For now it looks like there will be no favorable draw for the first two rounds, but those players who make the cut will most likely have rain to deal with on Saturday. Rounds one and two should both look to have winds in the upper teens, and a small chance of rain. Saturday the rain percentage increases to 90% with a chance for strong thunderstorms. Again as of now there is no apparent edge in favoring a particular tee time wave, and we will update the weather again prior to Thursday’s opening round.
As reported by: RotoGrinders
Kevin Tway is trending in the right direction
Being the son of a well known PGA tour golfer can be both a blessing and curse. Kevin had the privilege to grow up and learn the game of golf from inside the ropes of the PGA tour. His father Bob Tway played the tour for over 30 years. Kevin had the opportunity to watch his father play at the highest level of competitive golf. Kevin took to the game naturally and claimed his first major victory by winning the 2005 U.S. Junior Amateur. Tway’s junior resume helped him land a spot on the Oklahoma Sate golf team, and his continued growth in the game lead him to the ranks of professional golf. The hard part about having a famous last name is that people expect you to do things fast. Tway, who turned pro in 2011, has taken a bit of time to make it to the PGA tour. A web.com win year earned Tway a full time spot on the PGA tour in 2014, but like many before him this PGA tour rookie played poorly and was unable to keep his card. He played the next few seasons on the web.com tour and after an excellent 2016 season Tway earned another chance to prove he belongs on the PGA tour. After a slow start to the 2017 season, Tway has really started to play some of the best golf of his carer. Three straight top five finishes have vaulted Tway into the top 60 in the FedEx Cup standings. Tway has not shot over par in his last 12 rounds of PGA tour golf, and he looks to ride that momentum in this week’s AT&T Bryon Nelson. Reasonably priced across the industry, Tway’s current form does not fully reflect his level of play. This son of a PGA tour player is in a great spot to soon claim his first PGA tour victory, and he should be considered as a great GPP play for his price.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Despite a poor showing at the Players Championship, Matt Kuchar remains a great cash game option
TPC Sawgrass made many of the world’s best players look and feel like your average weekend golfer. Kuchar was not the only golfer to fall victim to the cruelty of the TPC at Sawgrass. A collection of the worlds best players managed to post 12 rounds of 80 or better during the event. Kuchar’s unfortunate third round of 81 forced him to miss the second cut line, leaving many in the golf world scratching their heads. Over the course of a season there will be plenty of bad rounds and when you have a course like Sawgrass there are ample opportunities for high scores. Box score watchers might use that bad third round as a reason to fade him this week, but in reality Kuchar is an excellent cash game play . A profitable cash game lineup will often hinge on the group of players making the cut. Known for his steady style of play, Kuchar is a master of making cuts. Since the 2013 season Kuchar has played in 109 PGA tour events, and during that time he has only missed 9 cuts. Making cuts is not the only factor we look at when selecting a lineup for our cash teams. In addition to the playing on the weekend, we also look to roster a player with upside. Finishing inside the top ten is a great result, but in all honestly getting a top 25 finish can go a long way to providing us upside. Over the span of his last 109 events Kuchar has 69 top 25 finishes. It helps to take some time to look at the overall body of work when making a selection to your lineups, and Kuchar’s body of work is very impressive. Kuchar’s course history for the Byron Nelson is very much in line with his overall PGA tour production. In nine attempts at the Byron Nelson he has 4 top 25 finishes and 0 missed cuts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Brandt Snedeker back from injury
Brandt Snedeker returns to the PGA tour after taking a month off to recover from a nagging wrist injury. Snedeker hurt his wrist during this year’s Masters, and the injury continued to bother him into the following week at the RBC Heritage. Snedeker managed to not only tough it out at The RBC, but he also finished inside the top fifteen. There appears to be no structural damage to his wrist, and the doctors describe the injury as tenosynivitis: which is the inflammation of a tendon. Snedeker was scheduled to make his return to play last week, but he opted for one more week of rest for the wrist. Threat of the injury should make it easy for many gamers to take the wait and see approach with Snedeker. Prior to his injury, this Ryder Cup Champion had not finished any worse than a T28 in his last four events. If the conventional wisdom of waiting to see how the injury plays out prevails, then Snedeker could make for a very risky low owned tournament flyer.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Jordan Spieth Returns To Texas
Spieth missed his second cut of the year last week, and he looks to rebound in his hometown state. For the next two weeks the PGA tour will nest it’s roots in the lone star state. For Spieth this is a chance to return home and play in front of friends and family. The week however will have a different feel than previous years. The Byron Nelson Tournament is changing venues next year, and this week should provide a time for reflection of the many great memories at the TPC Four Seasons. A favorite memory for many happened in 2010 when a 16 year old high school junior stole the headlines by playing his way up the leaderboard on the weekend. Jordan Spieth had not yet become an household name, but with solid play in his tour debut he made the world take notice. Playing well in your own backyard is never an easy thing, but Spieth managed to claim a win at last year’s Dean & DeLuca Invitational in Fort Worth. Even though there is only 30 miles between Fort Worth and Dallas, any native Texan will tell you there is a world of difference between the two cites. Jordan has yet to win in his hometown city of Dallas and he returns to the site of his PGA tour debut for a chance to win at the place where it all started. Narratives can often drive up ownership levels, and while Spieth is certainly one of the best players in the world, he does not exactly have an overwhelming event history. Last year’s T18 finish was Spieth’s best showing in this event since his debut in 2010. Fading a player of Spieth’s talent is usually not a sharp play, but if his ownership levels rise during the week, then it’s a play worth considering. A lack luster course history combined with the pressure of playing at home could be enough to keep Spieth from playing well this week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MDF Rule in play this weekend
Windy conditions aided in the movement of the cut line late on Friday afternoon. Eighty three golfers will tee off in the third round of The Players Championship, but due the MDF rule only around 70 players will compete in Sunday’s final round. The MDF rule comes into play when more than 78 players make the cut. In order to speed up play for network television, the PGA tour will make another cut on Sunday closer to the top 70 and ties. When making roster choices for the weekend slate, keep in mind that only seventy or so players will participate in Sunday’s final round. The cut line fell at +2, and there are currently 27 players between even par and two over par. With a somewhat condensed leaderboard, there should be plenty of opportunity for players to move both up and down the leaderboard on Saturday. Currently there is only a four shot difference between those golfers in the top 25, and those who just made it on the cut line. The weekend DFS golf scoring system does not reward points for a players finishing position. Typically we are looking to roster players who can make a ton of birdies on the weekend. Because of the MDF rule and the value offered in terms of weekend DK pricing , we could see many players choose to take a safe approach when building rosters. The lure of picking the safe play may provide comfort, but reality is we just need players who can make the most DK points for the weekend. In order to differentiate from the crowd, picking higher priced players closer to the cut line could provide you with the ultimate leverage play. In the end, we are still just looking to roster players who make birdies.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Pat Perez continues to outperform expectations
A very serious shoulder injury kept Pat Perez out for the majority of the 2016 season. Returning from an injury is never an easy task, and it often takes time for a player to regain a competitive edge. For this PGA tour veteran, the comeback has been nothing short of spectacular. In his third event back from injury Perez claimed his second career victory. It would have been easy for Perez to show some regression after his win, but his solid play has continued through the season. In 15 events this season Perez has posted an outstanding 9 top 25 finishes. Last week, with a strong closing round of 68, Perez finished one shot out of a potential playoff. When you look at how players perform in terms of making an optimal lineup, Perez has one of the highest percentages of the year. A sample of the top 500 optimal lineups each week revels the frequency players are used in roster construction. In 2017 Perez has been in the optimal data set 27% of the time. The price on Perez has finally caught up to his production, and he could make for an interesting pivot play in terms of roster construction.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Kevin Chappell returns to action
The PGA tour’s most recent first-time winner will tee it up for the first time since his win at the Valero Texas Open. After struggling to regain the form that saw him post four runner-up finishes in 2016, Chappell finally broke through for his first win. Like many of his fellow Nike staff players, Chappell struggled to find an equipment solution left by the now defunct club company. Prior the Masters, Chappell switched back to his old clubs and ball, and then preceded to post his first top ten of the season. Chappell kept his equipment change the same for his next event, and was rewarded with his first ever PGA tour win. With a second place finish in last year’s Players Championship and his resurgence in form, Chappell could be a great tournament play this week. Early ownership projections show Chappell at a very reasonable level, and if you are playing on both sites the price on FanDuel is much more appealing.
As reported by: PGA Projected Ownership TPC Sawgrass gets a small redesign
It’s not uncommon for a PGA tour venue to undergo a few small changes from the previous year. Golf course designers will try to change the playability of the hole by adding subtle features to the already existing layout. Often times the trick of adding a new tee box or a green side bunker will create enough change to improve hole. When small tweaks no longer work, then many golf courses will look to do a small redesign. This week TPC Sawgrass will have a few those changes in play. All 18 of the greens were rebuilt, and holes 6,7,& 12 all received a layout change. The Stadium course is all about theater, and true to form all of the changes made this year are designed to enhance the drama. The smaller of the changes takes place between the sixth and seventh holes. In true Pete Dye fashion a water hazard has been added in-between these two parallel holes. The most notable changes made this year come to the 12th hole. Dye took this medium length par 4 and reworked the layout to create a great risk reward short par 4. The drivable 301 yard 12 hole will now challenge players to make a choice off the tee. For what the hole lacks in length it makes up for in the approach shot. Water and bunkers now surround the 12th green, so regardless of your choice off the tee players will have to hit a good shot in order to take advantage of the 12th hole. With this change Dye took one of the least liked holes and has made it into possibly of being one of the more entertaining holes for the week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Dustin Johnson’s hot streak continues
The world’s number one ranked golfer returned to action last week. Prior to the Wells Fargo Championship there was some concern if Johnson’s month long back injury would affect his play. Unfortunately for his fellow PGA tour players, it appears even an ill timed pre tournament fall can do little to slow down this impressive season. In his return to competition, Johnson closed the weekend with consecutive 67’s and finished just one shot out of a playoff. It took an heroic birdie putt on the 72 hole from Brian Harmon to prevent Johnson from his fourth win of the season. Outside of a missed cut at the Farmers Championship, Johnson has not finished worst than a sixth in any event this year. The tour’s hottest golfer will look to keep this hot streak in tact as he plays in the tour’s fifth major. Standing in his way this week is a less than desirable course history. In his previous eight Players Championship’s Johnson has only recorded one top 30 finish. When a player is this hot, you simply have to put course history aside. Johnson’s dominant form should continue this week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders A past champion understands the value of a good start
Winning on the PGA tour is never an easy thing, and winning after a less than desirable start is something that all tour players look to avoid. Long known as the year’s fifth major championship, this week carries more pressure than a normal tour stop. The Players Championship will always have one of the strongest fields of the year and to win at TPC Sawgrass players must perform well in the first round. In the last ten years, the eventual winner has started no worse than 4 shots off the lead. Four times in the last ten years we have seen the eventual first round leader go on to win The Players Championship. Major weeks are all about pressure, and it’s important for players to start off well. Playing from too far behind can often be too much of a daunting task. We are looking to target players that have a decent history of playing well in the first round. In route to his 2014 Players Championship victory, Martin Kaymer posted an amazing opening round of 63. Exceptional rounds on tour are often outliers, and while it’s nice to shoot an opening round of 63, we can’t reasonably draw much from just one round. However, a study of the last ten years of the Players Championship reveals that Kaymer has one of the lower first round scoring averages. In eight attempts at TPC Sawgrass, this two-time major winner has a first-round scoring average of 69.3. When you factor in a somewhat predicted lower ownership and a reasonable price, Kaymer becomes a great play in all formats for the Players Championship.
As reported by: PGA Projected Ownership Course history returns for The Players Championship, Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy among top course horses
Last week, course history was non-existent as the Wells Fargo Championship was held at the Eagle Point Golf Club, a venue that had never hosted a PGA Tour event. But we have plenty of course history data this week. The Players Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course since 1982 and there have not been any significant course length revisions since 2007. Sergio Garcia is widely considered to be a top course horse, he’s finished in the top-10 at The Players four straight years from 2013 through 2015. Garcia stumbled to a T54 finish in 2016 but he is in great form having won his first major at The Masters four weeks ago. Rory McIlroy has also been a mainstay on The Players leaderboard, finishing T12-T8-T6-T8 the last four years at TPC Sawgrass. Both Garcia and McIlroy get DK salary hikes in light of their recent success at The Players and their impressive performances at The Masters. On the flip side, Phil Mickelson has struggled at TPC Sawgrass having missed the cut the last four years. This is obviously built into his DK salary, it’s been dropped to just $7,400 this week. It is the first time Mickelson’s salary has dipped below $8K this season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders
Wednesday line movement favoring Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, and Alexander Noren
Odds to win the Wells Fargo Championship notably improved for Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, and Alexander Noren on Wednesday. One of the leading narratives this week was the absence of course history, this being the first PGA Tour event hosted by Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, North Carolina. As it turns out, two of the golfers in the Wells Fargo Championship field are actually members of Eagle Point Golf Club: Webb Simpson and Carl Pettersson. While most golfers have little or no experience at Eagle Point, Simpson and Pettersson presumably play often there. Pettersson’s poor recent form should limit his GPP ownership, but Webb Simpson has had some bright moments this season cracking the top-15 three times including a T11 finish at the RBC Heritage three weeks ago. Simpson’s informal course history at Eagle Point seems priced in on some sites, DraftKings aggressively increased his salary from $7.2K to $9.7K this week. Another big story this week is the weather, heavy wind and rain is in the forecast. Shane Lowry and Alexander Noren are considered by many to be excellent players in windy conditions. Line movement can sometimes be an indicator of ownership trends in DFS golf. During a week when course history analysis is not available and recent form analysis is blurred by the Zurich Classic’s new team format, reliance on odds and line movement may be at higher levels than usual.
As reported by: RotoGrinders FantasyDraft launches new 6-of-7 scoring format
FantasyDraft launches its new 6-of-7 scoring format this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. An idea frequently requested by the DFS community, the new format simply drops the lowest scoring golfer’s points and accrues scoring for the remaining 6 rostered golfers. The new format should dramatically increase the percentage of rosters with six golfers actively accruing points throughout the weekend. It will also facilitate more aggressive roster construction, allowing DFS players to take more chances with volatile, boom-or-bust golfers. FantasyDraft GPP ownership for golfers such as Luke List and Harold Varner should increase while more conservative plays such as Stewart Cink or Lucas Glover could be reduced. However, FantasyDraft’s tight pricing persists and does limit aggressive exposures to the most expensive golfers, so balanced roster construction should still be prevalent. Luke List has a projected GPP ownership of near 20% this week on FantasyDraft. List has been extremely erratic over the last two weeks, posting a strong round paired with a terrible round and missing the cut in each of the last two tournaments. The upside for List is obvious, but an uncomfortable probability for imploding is unfortunately also present. FantasyDraft’s new 6-of-7 scoring format makes it easier to take chances on golfers like List.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Wells Fargo weather report (revised): Thursday AM / Friday PM wave to have at least slight advantage
Kevin Roth’s final weather report for the Wells Fargo Championship is now available in the RotoGrinders’ main forum. Kevin projects the heaviest rain to take place on Friday morning. Winds start at just 5 mph on Thursday but increase to 15-20mph by Thursday afternoon. The wind will be even stronger throughout Friday, staying around 15-20mph all day with gusts of 25mph+. This rationale points towards a clear advantage for the Thursday AM / Friday PM wave which includes JT Poston, Alexander Noren, Webb Simpson, and Dustin Johnson. However, rain delays are possible at anytime. If creating multiple rosters, it may be beneficial to create lineups targeting both waves. Isolated showers are next to impossible to predict and having exposure to both waves could be profitable. To review Kevin’s complete forecast, click on the link below.
As reported by: Kevin Roth on RotoGrinders