DFS Alerts
A Great Course Fit
I am very intrigued by Lucas Glover for this tournament. His missed cut last week combined with a healthier than normal price tag will keep him flying under the radar, and I am a big fan of Glover in GPP formats this weekend. Glover currently leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, his game is a great fit for this course, and he has made the cut in three of the last four editions of this event. Combine that course fit with generally solid 2019 form that included three straight top ten finishes prior to the missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, and you have all the ingredients for success at ownership that will almost certainly be lower than it should be.
Always Underappreciated
Webb Simpson doesn’t get the same attention as some of the other top golfers on the PGA Tour, but he has a very complete game now that he is no longer a liability with the flat stick. His putter has been average so far this year, but he’s still in the upper half of the Tour — which is much better than we could have said a few years ago. Outside of that, he ranks 4th in bogey avoidance, 10th in scrambling, and 24th in strokes gained tee to green. He’s one of the only top end options that has played in each of the last three editions, and his results have gotten progressively better in those three trips (from MC to 41st to 8th). I’m happy to fire up Simpson in any contest format here.
MDF Rule in play for The Players Championship
The cut line sweat on Friday was a fun one to watch. A few big named players struggled over the last few holes late on Friday pushing the cut from -2 to -1. Eighty golfers will now tee off in the third round of The Players Championship, but due to the MDF rule only around 70 players will compete in Sunday’s final round. The MDF rule comes into play when more than 78 players make the cut. In order to speed up play for network television, the PGA tour will make another cut on Sunday closer to the top 70 and ties. When making roster choices for the weekend slate, keep in mind that only seventy or so players will participate in Sunday’s final round. When players tee off in twosomes on Saturday it’s important to take note that 42 golfers currently reside between three under par and the cut line of one under par.
Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
With a little over ten minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Outside of Pat Perez and Whee Kim withdrawing earlier in the week, there has been no player movement to report. ResultsDB will be up and running within 10 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Whee Kim Chesson Hadley is a great risk reward option for The Players Championship
Almost two years removed from having to earn his way back to the PGA Tour via the Web.com Tour, Chesson Hadley enters this week with a bit of momentum. Despite his fair share of water balls at last week’s API, Hadley recorded his second straight top 20 or better finish. Currently ranked inside the top 40 in the FedEx Cup race, Hadley has only made six cuts this season but has played well enough to finish inside the top 25 in five of those events. Truly a boom or bust option at this point of the season, Hadley’s record at TPC Sawgrass mirrors his recent play. Hadley is 2 for 4 in cuts made over the last five years at The Players, with his two cuts resulting in a top 25 or better finish. While his inconsistent play might scare those who are a little risk tolerant, Hadley has all the makings of a great value play for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Jason Day claims he is ready to go after missing last week
Just a few hours after lock, Jason Day left the DFS Golf world in a bit of a negative frenzy after he withdrew less than nine holes into The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Injuries are part of the game, but many in the community were upset that Day kept the nature of his pre-tournament form out of the public eye. Day claimed to hurt his back while working on his game the week before The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rested and ready to go this week, Day claims that the nature of his injury was overblown and he is ready to go ahead of The Players Championship. Much like Tiger, Day is gaining some steam in our projected ownership model for the week. With many in the community still not sure if they trust Day, there is a chance to get him at less than 10% ownership for the week. As a past champion of this event, Day without a doubt has the skills needed to once again compete for another title. As we have seen in the past, there is a real chance that Day pulls out with a bad back, but his talent and potential ownership makes this an excellent spot to buy low.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Weather update for The Players Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report for The Players Championship is up in the main forum. According to Roth we can a pretty decent weather week for golf. Much has been made about the switch of this event from May to March and what impact if any that move will have. Even though the week looks pretty decent for golf, Roth predicts that golfers will face a bit of wind the first two days. As always trying to calculate which tee time wave will have a weather advantage is not the easiest task. With winds forecasted to reach around 15 mph per day the best way to take advantage of the forecast is to either pick players who you like as a wind specialist or perhaps stack a few GPP lineups to favor one tee time wave over another in case, the weather turns notably worse for one of the draws.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Adam Scott looks to build on past success at TPC Sawgrass
The case for success for Adam Scott often boils down to how well he putts. Always known as one of the better ball strikers on tour, Scott has flashed a few times early this season when his putter gets hot. Toying with different methods over the past few years, Scott has recently gone to the armlock method made popular by Matt Kuchar. As a former champion of this event, Scott typically putts well at TPC Sawgrass making him a player worth roster consideration for the week. Over the last nine starts at TPC Sawgrass, Scott is 39 under par with five top 20 or better finishes. There are really very few bad putters on tour, and as a former Masters winner, it’s hard to say that Scott lacks the ability to putt well. The bottom line is that Scott typically excels tee to green and when he putts well there is a better than average chance that he will contend. Priced down in this strong field, Scott stands out as a great source of salary relief in all formats for the week.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Tiger Woods is ready to go after missing last week with an injury
Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was not without its fair share of big injury news. Tiger Woods withdrew prior to the tournament with a neck issue. In his pre-tournament interview prior to this week’s Players Championship Woods revealed that he is ready to go and that last week’s absence was to ensure that the neck had enough rest to heal. Woods will have to pay attention to his body more than in the past, so it would not be a surprise if we see him take time off as needed this season. Woods is in no position to push things and it’s no secret that he will build his schedule around the biggest events of the season. With the news of his health improving, Woods is one of the biggest risers in early week ownership projection numbers. WIth a ton of past success at this venue, a healthy Woods has both the current form and past success at TPC Sawgrass to gain trust as an excellent play for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Jason Kokrak continues to show improved play
PGA Tour Veteran Jason Kokrak heads into this week’s Player Championship in the midst of playing some of the best golf of his career. Since July of last season, Kokrak has made 21 straight cuts including 9 top 25 or better finishes. Fueled by an improvement in his ball striking skills, the long-hitting Kokrak ranks inside the top 20 in all the major strokes gained ball striking categories. Facing a poor course history at TPC Sawgrass, the major debate around the choice to roster Kokrak is whether current form trumps poor past results. Prior to his 46th showing at last year’s Players Championship, Kokrak had missed 4 straight cuts at TPC Sawgrass. Faced with a similar poor course history vs current form scenario at this year’s Honda Classic, Kokrak posted a top 10 en route to being one the better value plays on the week. Priced down in this very strong field, Kokrak is once again a player that could easily crush his value given his current form. Kokrak has appeared to turn the corner on his game and remains a strong GPP play despite a poor track record at this event.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Rafael Cabrera-Bello looks to keep the momentum going
For the second straight week, Rafael Cabrera-Bello stands out as one of the better bargain plays on DraftKings. Pricing for this week’s Players Championship was released prior to a 3rd place finish at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Even without his high finish from last week, there is a strong argument that Cabrera-Bello’s recent play deserves a bit more respect in terms of pricing. With six straight top 25 or better finishes in his last six starts including a pair of 3rd place showings, Cabrera-Bello game is in excellent form ahead of the unofficial fifth major. The combination of his great play and low price has Cabrera-Bello once again at the top of our DraftKings projections in terms of Pt/$/K. Looking to build off back to back top 20 or better outings at TPC Sawgrass, Cabrera-Bello will be one of the more popular value plays for the week. With such great recent form, it’s really hard to make a case for fading Cabrera-Bello at such a low price.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Flying Under The Radar
In terms of media exposure, you could make the case that Schauffele is perhaps the most under-rated “elite” golfer on the PGA Tour. He currently ranks 21st in ball striking and 11th in strokes gained on approach, and he is currently riding a streak of seven consecutive top 25 finishes. That’s nothing to sneeze at. He waltzed his way to a tie for second place in his debut here a year ago, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s winning golf tournaments like this one. Fire him up with confidence, especially in GPP formats where his ownership is bound to be lower than it should be.
A Bounce Back Spot
If you like good players that have really been struggling with the putter, this pick is for you! There is no doubt that the flat stick has been absolutely abysmal for Grillo so far this year, and the masses are starting to get annoyed with him. All we need is for him to be respectable with that club in order to make him a contender, and hopefully he can get back on track at Sawgrass. The other positives are there. Grillo still ranks 8th on Tour in strokes gained on approach this season, he ranks 9th in ball striking, he now comes a lot cheaper than we have seen in the past, and he’s made his last two cuts at this event. I like the bounce back potential in GPP formats.
Ready To Finish Off A Win?
Are people really coming off Rory because he didn’t bring his “A” game on Sunday at Bay Hill? Yes, he’s struggled in the final round on multiple occasions of late, but there is also the flip side that he is consistently putting himself in position to win golf tournaments. He has now played in five PGA Tour events in 2019, and he’s finished in the top SIX in EVERY event. Let’s not get carried away with one poor round. He ranks inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in ball striking and strokes gained approach, and the Sunday fade is literally the only question mark with his game right now. Don’t be surprised if he comes out and dominates this week.
Familiarity Card
If you want to play the “familiar with the course in March” narrative, then give a bump to Webb Simpson. His caddie, Paul Tesori, is from the area and has played the course a ton during this time of year. Simpson has said that he will lean on that knowledge this week, and that is likely a very important factor. Simpson should also be playing with confidence after winning this event a year ago. While I generally shy away from defending champions, this is a unique case. I can’t ignore Webb in this spot.