DFS Alerts
Biggest Pricing Error of the Week
The final play is arguably the most mis-priced golfer in the field this week. Pricing was released before last week’s tournament ended, so it doesn’t factor in RCB’s T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He now has six straight top 25s on tour. So we have a red-hot golfer that is underpriced. He also checks the course history box, posting finishes of T4 and T17 here the last two years. His statistics all look solid and his preferred putting surface is bermuda. While anyone is susceptible to a bad week in golf, it’s hard not to load up on RCB at this price point, even at high ownership.
Safety with Upside (Part Two)
Poulter was one of my favorite plays last week and he’s one of my favorite plays again this week. I love him in DFS as a play in all formats and I love him has an outright bet at 50/1. He lives in Florida and is in as good of form as nearly any golfer on the planet. He finished with a T23 last week and had four top six finishes worldwide before the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Poulter is gaining strokes in all facets of his game (which is always a big plus) and he has made the cut here in five straight years. He’s a grinder with upside, much like Kuchar in that regard.
Safety with Upside (Part One)
Kuchar is one of those golfers that never gets the ownership that he deserves. His consistency often makes him a secondary tournament play because people want to chase upside. However, Kuchar offers safety WITH upside. He has two wins over the last six months and is one of the best golfers in the world on Pete Dye courses. He has won this event in the past and his statistics all look solid. He’s ranked in the top 30 in every key statistic other than proximity (which his short game more than makes up for).
Seven Straight Cuts at TPC Sawgrass is a Rarity
Scott has been extremely hit or miss here in the first part of the year. His first five events resulted in a MC, T2, T60, T7, and MC. While I don’t believe in the predictive power of alternating good and bad finishes, this week at least fits the pattern nicely. The real reason to like Scott is that he has made seven straight cuts at this event, which as mentioned above, is the second best cut streak in the field. He has gained strokes putting in all five events this year, which can be taken one of two ways — either his ball striking will pick up and he’ll potentially get a win if he continues putting this well… or if his ball striking stays the same and his putting dips, he could have a bad week. I’m a glass half-full type of guy, so I’ll side with the former.
One Decent Putting Week Away
Matsuyama was a bit of a disappointment last week, finishing in a tie for 33rd. While that doesn’t look all that promising on paper, a deeper dive into the statistics shows that he lost over eight strokes putting. We know that he’s a bad putter, but he’s not THAT bad. His tee to green game is arguably the best in the field right now, as he has gained over 45 strokes on his competition in his last five events. If he can put together a decent week of putting, he will find himself in the top ten and hopefully in contention on Sunday. He’s made four of his last five cuts here with four top 25 finishes.
Perfect Stage for a Breakthrough Win
Fleetwood was featured in the picks last week and many of us were hoping for him to run away with the tournament after holding the 36-hole lead. He got the bad end of the weather draw on Saturday and his irons didn’t cooperate. Luckily, he bounced back in a big way on Sunday and managed to finish in a tie for third. He’s a great driver of the golf ball, he’s one of the best long iron players around, and he avoids bogeys with the best of them. He has played here two times, posting finishes of T41 and T7. He’s just as safe as the super elites this week and it’s only a matter of time before he wins a big event.
Winning Upside at Potentially Low Ownership
My hope this week is that Xander slips through the cracks. There are so many big names priced right around him. I plan to load up on Xander either way, but obviously prefer him to be lower owned. With top 15 finishes in five of his last six events, he has quietly moved into the top 10 in the Official Golf World Rankings. I always like golfers that do everything well, as they can make up for a bad week of putting, chipping, or ball striking. Xander gains strokes in all four facets of the game, he is in tremendous form, and he finished in a tie for second here last season.
Longest Made Cut Streak at TPC Sawgrass
It feels strange having Sergio headline my picks this week given how many elites are teeing it up this week, but he’s the only golfer in the field that has made every single cut here in the last 10 years. The next longest streak belongs to Adam Scott at seven straight cuts. Garcia went through that poor stretch of golf last season, but turned it around overseas and has brought that over to North America. In his three starts on this side of the pond, he has gained 20 strokes on his approaches. Despite losing strokes putting during that stretch, he has managed to post two top ten finishes.
Pat Perez is no longer in the field
Pat Perez and Whee Kim are no longer in the field for The Players Championship. Dominic Bozzelli and Wyndham Clark are now both in the field as alternates. It remains to be seen if either player will make their way into DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Whee Kim, Dominic Bozzelli, Wyndham Clark
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over fifteen minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Outside of Talor Gooch and Charl Schwartzel withdrawing earlier in the week, there has been no player movement to report. Weather looks to be pretty much perfect for the week, so there is no need to stack a tee time wave in order to gain an advantage. ResultsDB will be up and running within 10 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Charl Schwartzel Nate Lashley looks to make the most of his medical exemption
With only two starts left on his medical exemption, Nate Lashley chose to miss last week’s Honda Classic. Only needing 22 FEC points to fulfill the requirements of that medical exemption, Lashley turns his sites to Bay Hill as he prepares to play in his first Arnold Palmer Invitational. Highlighted by an 8th place finish at The Puerto Rico Open, Lashley has played well in his previous six starts this season and should have a great chance to earn his playing status moving forward. Motivation is always an intriguing part of the narrative, and Lashley is without a doubt lacking no such motivation to play well this week. Gaining steam in terms of projected ownership, Lashley is trending as one of the biggest ownership risers of the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Phil Mickelson returns to The Arnold Palmer Invitational first first time in five years
With two wins in the last thirteen months, Phil Mickelson has reasserted himself as a player worthy of our attention. Playing in his first Arnold Palmer Invitational since the 2013 season, Mickelson is flying under the radar in terms of popularity for the week. Currently projected to garnish an ownership level lower than 6%, this former API champion could end up being a super strong leverage play for the week. In 14 career starts at this event Mickelson has 6 top 25 or better finishes with 4 of those 6 coming inside the top 5. The long absence from this event has definitely impacted the interest in Mickelson creating a great spot to buy low on a golfer who has both great current form and outstanding course history.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Zach Johnson looks to build on a great course history
With the early season adjustment of having a new caddy on the bag, Zach Johnson appears to have his game back on track ahead of this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Johnson heads into this week having made three straight cuts. despite poor putting at The Honda Johnson still managed to gain almost 8 strokes tee to green for the week. Historically a good putter, we can assume that Johnson has a great chance to brush off last week’s performance on the greens. As the owner of 8 straight cuts at Bay Hill, including three top 15 or better finishes, Johnson seems to always play well at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Priced down due to a slow start to the season, Johnson stands out as a great play in both cash games and GPP’s. In his last six starts at Bay Hill, Johnson has gained strokes all but one time.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Talor Gooch is no longer in the field
Promising PGA Tour rookie and potential value play Talor Gooch has withdrawn from The Arnold Palmer Invitational with a thumb injury. Hopefully the injury will not keep Gooch out of action too long, but if you had him in your player pool for the week, please remove him now. Gooch has been replaced by Chris Stroud.
Luke List looks to bounce back from a missed cut
Luke List is a player that often frustrates those who pay close attention to strokes gained metrics. A very talented ball striker, List often gains strokes in all of the ball striking metrics despite struggling with the flat stick. At last week’s Honda Classic, List gained strokes in all of the ball striking metrics but lost 5 strokes on the putting greens. His recent erratic play has created a nice value spot for List this week. In addition, to be a great ball striker, List is a long hitter and The Arnold Palmer Invitational tends to favor players that can move it off the tee. List has two consecutive top 20 or better finishes in his first two tournaments at Bay Hill. It’s hard to putt worse than he did last week, so if he can make a few putts then List is in a great spot as a value play with a ton of upside.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown