DFS Alerts
Cameron Champ looks to get back on track
In just a few months, Cameron Champ has experienced the highs and lows of being a PGA Tour player. Winning in only his second start as a PGA Tour member, Champ set the bar very high in terms of expectations. Like many other first time winners before him, Champ has struggled since that victory missing three out of his last five cuts. Known for his ability to absolutely crush the golf ball, Champ should find his first visit to Bay Hill to his liking. Historically a venue that favors par 5 scoring, Champ should have plenty of great scoring opportunities this week. Trending down in both price and ownership, Champ has shown more than enough upside to be considered a great GPP option on the week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Rafael Cabrera-Bello set to make his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut
The combination of The Players Championship moving back to March and The PGA Championship moving to May has created a different feel to the 2019 PGA Tour schedule. One of the biggest differences seen thus far this season is that many two tour players are spending more time on The PGA Tour earlier during the season. Due to such circumstances, players like Rafael Cabrera-Bello will add new events to their schedule. Cabrera-Bello will make his API debut this week and is trending as a popular value pick despite the lack of experience at Bay Hill. Since April of late year, Cabrera-Bello has made 16 straight cuts including 10 top 25 or better finishes. Priced down on a site like DraftKings, Cabrera-Bello is popping in our projections model as one of the top Pt/$/K plays for the week. The lack of course history could be a concern for some in the DFS community, but the combination of talent and a skill set that fits Bay Hill should provide a great opportunity for Cabrera-Bello to outperform his salary.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Home Game for Mr. Benny An
I was going back and forth between Benny An and RCB for my final pick of the week. I plan to have a lot of exposure to both, but I’m going to give the edge to Benny An. He tweeted that this is a home game for him, which breaks the tie given the fact that RCB has never played here before. An is ranked fourth in the field in strokes gained tee to green, but that’s flown under the radar given how poorly he has been on the greens lately. He has lost 10 strokes putting in his last two events alone. If he can even come close to field average, we could be looking at a top ten finish this week.
Number One Value in My Model
I didn’t expect to write up Hadwin this week. He wasn’t on my radar early in the week, but after running my model, he rates out as the top point-per-dollar play of the entire slate. Yeah, I thought that was a bit strange too. He had a bad weekend at the Genesis Open, but was in really solid form before that event. He has played here two times in his career, posting finishes of T6 and T36. Bermuda is his preferred putting surface, which is always a bonus. The two statistics that really stood out for Hadwin are his par five scoring (first in the field over the last 24 rounds) and his par three efficiency from 200-225 yards (fifth in the field). He’s currently projected with less than 10% ownership, so let’s keep this pick to ourselves.
Rare Opportunity to Target List at Low Ownership
All of the picks so far have been very safe. This one strays off the beaten path a little bit. List missed the cut by four strokes last week at the Honda Classic and burned many DFS players in the process. A deeper dive into the statistics shows that he gained strokes tee to green, but lost five strokes putting. He’s obviously not a good putter, but that was on the lower range of his potential outcomes. He’s ranked seventh in this field in tee to green and he clearly likes the course, posting finishes of T7 and T17 the last two years. This is a great time to hop back on List when his ownership is down.
Form, Course History, Course Fit, and he Lives in the Area
Poulter might be my favorite play of the week and that’s truly saying something given how rarely he is on my radar. He has four straight top six finishes worldwide (three of which were on the European Tour) and quietly rates out well in the key statistics. Many will be hesitant to pay this much for Poulter, but he has made eight straight cuts at this event and unknown to many, he lives in the area. Basically, he checks every single box this week — form, course history, and course fit. The icing on the cake is that bermuda is his preferred putting surface.
As Safe of a Play as you will Find
Fleetwood and cash games go together like peanut butter and jelly. He rarely misses cuts and is always a good bet to finish in the top 25. He has quietly played well in his first few events in North America and he has played well here in the past, posting finishes of T26 and T10. He’s one of the best total drivers of the golf ball and he’s ranked in the top 14 in this field in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. Much like Matsuyama, it will all come down to his putter. If he can be even with the field, he will put himself in good position to contend.
Great Play on a Course that Requires Long Iron Precision
Matsuyama has really turned it on since August. He hasn’t missed a cut in 15 events and has posted eight top 15 finishes during that stretch. When Hideki is at his best, he is striping his irons and he has certainly put on a show recently, gaining 19 strokes on approach over his last five events. He’s ranked second in this field in strokes gained tee to green and first in the field in par three efficiency from 200-225 yards (all four this week fall into that category). He has made the cut in all four of his appearances at Bay Hill, highlighted by a T6 in 2016. He is long overdue for a win, all it will take is a good week with the putter.
No Tiger? No Problem -- Just Play his Good Friend Bryson
While I was devastated after Tiger Woods withdrew earlier in the week, the pain quickly subsided. We still have DFS golf, so life is good. We can’t play Tiger, but we can play his good friend Bryson. This is really the event that kick-started his career. He came out of nowhere with a second place finish here last year and then went on that incredible run. He’s now one of the best golfers in the world. He doesn’t have a weak part of his game, which is always a bonus on a course that tests every aspect of golf. While he didn’t have the best finish at the WGC-Mexico, he lost over eight strokes on and around the greens. That’s not going to happen again anytime soon. We can easily forgive one bad week, especially since he’s typically very good when it comes to his short game.
Charl Schwartzel is no longer in the field
Charl Schwartzel has decided to take a pass on this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. At this time there is no injury news associated with this move. Scott Brown will take his place in the field, and is currently not available in terms of DFS pricing.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Solid Value
He’s yet another first timer in the list of GPP plays, but massive experience doesn’t seem to be a total prerequisite to success on this golf course. Poston has quietly been playing solid golf of late, and he showed some moxie last week to walk away with a top 40 finish after opening by being four over par through his first nine holes on Thursday. He quietly ranks 18th on Tour in par five scoring so far this year, and he has been efficient with his opportunities. The price tag is very passable on all the major sites this week, and Poston is a talented golfer who could be coming into his own. He has made six straight cuts with all of them going for top 40 finishes, and look for him to keep that rolling this week.
Elite GPP Upside At Low Ownership
Bombs away. If you want a massive risk/reward play this week, Champ is your man. His play has been a little hit or miss of late, but this sets up as a great spot to grab Champ at low ownership. He will have every opportunity to score on the par fives on this course, as Champ currently ranks 2nd on Tour in driving distance and 18th in par five scoring. The recent play combined with the fact that this is his debut at Bay Hill will almost certainly keep him flying under the radar, and I love the combination of low ownership and potential upside. He’s much more affordable than we have seen in recent weeks, too, and that only adds to the appeal.
Tough To Fade These Days
Poulter might be the hottest golfer in the world not named Rory McIlroy right now. His last four worldwide starts have all netted top six finishes, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. While he has never been known as the longest hitter, he ranks a solid 58th in driving distance and 15th in par five scoring this year, and he sits 4th in ball striking. I’m not the biggest fan of his personality, and I often let that cloud my DFS judgment of him. However, his recent play has certainly made a statement. He has made the cut in eight straight editions of this event, and I would be shocked if that streak ended given his current form. This is one of the best combinations of form and course history that you will find this week, and the price tag isn’t overly outrageous. He’s tough to fade right now.
The Clear-Cut Top Play
There are almost no red flags with McIlroy right now. He hasn’t hit the winner’s circle yet this year, but Rory seems rejuvenated with a few more stateside starts under his belt. He has logged four starts so far in 2019. His worst finish in those four starts? Fifth place. That’s even more impressive considering that he hasn’t been scoring as much as he usually does on the par fives. However, he still ranks 6th in driving distance so far this year, and he has finished 4th and 1st here over the last two years. Lock him in as an elite option in all formats. He remains one of the most likely golfers to contend every time he tees it up, and his game is obviously a great fit at Bay Hill.
Tiger Woods has withdrawn from the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tiger Woods will not play in this week’s API due to a strained neck. Woods posted the news on his Twitter account earlier today and does not expect the injury to be a factor in the long term. This is unfortunate news for Tiger as he typically plays some of his best golf at this event.
As reported by: Tiger Woods Twitter