DFS Alerts
Good Course Fit, Bad Course History
I’ll start with the negatives — Finau has missed three straight cuts at this event. Given how consistent of a golfer he has become, that’s pretty wild. On paper, this is a perfect venue for Finau. He gains a ton of strokes off the tee and he makes a ton of birdies. Perhaps his laid back nature doesn’t jive well with the massive crowds. Many will talk themselves out of playing Finau this week, but I see an elite golfer that has a win coming soon. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 45 since last June and he’s coming off of a solid effort at Torrey Pines, posting a T13 despite losing three strokes putting. This level of consistency is unmatched by golfers at his price range, so I will bank on the talent and hope that he can finally get a good start at TPC Scottsdale.
Elite Course History
The Waste Management Open had to change its name from the Matsuyama Classic last year after he withdrew with a wrist injury. In his previous four starts here, he finished fourth, second, first, and first. He got off to a nice start on Thursday, but was ultimately forced to withdraw. He basically struggled the rest of the year, but is finally starting to flash that elite form that we have come to expect from Matsuyama. He’s one of those golfers that dominates when his irons are hot and he’s gained at least four strokes on approaches in five of his last seven events. He was in contention last week and now gets to play an event that has clearly suited his game over the years. He’s my pick to win and my favorite stud for DFS.
Anders Albertson looks to bounce back from a missed cut
PGA Tour rookie Anders Albertson has quickly gained a following in the DFS community. With one win and a third-place finish in the overall year-end Web.com Standings, Albertson asserted himself as a player to take notice of this season. Albertson wasted no time to post a top ten or better finish this season as he was able to post a top 5 in The Sanderson Farms during the wrap-around fall schedule. Ball striking stats like strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained approach will be popular metrics to use this week, and Albertson has shown early in his career the ability to thrive in those areas. Priced down due to his recent missed cut, Albertson, has the skill set needed to play well this week and stands out as a great play in terms of Pt/$/K in our projections model.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool
Talor Gooch continues to make the most of his opportunities
Sometimes the hardest part about making it on The PGA Tour is actually gaining a spot to play. For former Oklahoma State standout Talor Gooch the ability to get on tour and then play in events can be a bigger struggle than most of us realize. From his conditional status starts would be hard to come by, so much that Gooch had to Monday qualify into the Sony Open. Gooch did not let a missed cut damper his spirits and was able to play well enough in his next start at The Dessert Classic to earn a start in The Farmers. Fast forward to this week and Gooch is in the field again via a top ten at The Farmers. Currently ranked inside the top 30 in The FedEx Cup race, Gooch is working his way into earning a full-time role on the PGA Tour. Playing for his third week in a row due to an excellent finish from the previous start, Gooch is clearly a hot golfer worth targeting in GPP’s for the week. Over his last two starts, Gooch has gained 7.5 shots tee to green which is a very useful trend to pay attention to at TPC Scottsdale.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Matthew Wolff set to make PGA Tour debut
Regarded as one of the best amateur players in the world, Oklahoma State Cowboy Matthew Wolff will compete in this week’s WMPO on a sponsor’s invite. Coming off a freshman season in which he claimed first team all American honors, Wolff already has three wins to start his sophomore season. Wolff has a very unusual golf swing, but many in the golf world feel like he will be a player who can transition to the next level. The tournament committee thought enough of this young star to give him the first sponsors invite for the event this year. While it’s hard to put much stock in a college sophomore playing in this event as an amateur, it will be fun to see how Wolff fares this week and at a bottom of the barrel price he could make his way onto some big field GPP teams.
As reported by: WMPO Site Kevin Na set to return from injury
If you are new to DFS golf then tread lightly on players such as Kevin Na. This PGA Tour veteran started off his 2019 campaign by not reporting an injury prior to The Sentry Tournament of Champions and withdrew after lineups had locked leaving many in the dark and down one player for the week. Na proceeded to try and play through the injury at The Sony Open but withdrew lat on Wednesday. With no further updates on his injured finger, it appears that Na is planning to play this week. If he does go then Na will be super low owned and has a decent course history at TPC Scottsdale. Na has made 12 of 13 cuts at this event including 4 top tens. It always seems like Na trolls the DFS community, and playing well at low ownership would not be a surprise this week, but it’s worth noting that there has been no official status update on his finger.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Trending Upward
If you are looking for a cheap value option this week, Dahmen fits that bill for me. He ranks inside the top 40 in both strokes gained off the tee and ball striking so far this year, and he grades out much better than most of his peers in this price range. In addition, Dahmen has played in eight events since the start of the fall swing and has a total of zero missed cuts. His results have also gotten progressively better in each of the last five starts (69-41-37-22-9). The top ten finish last week is nice icing on the cake, and Dahmen is a no brainer as a value pick this week.
A Great Mid-Range Option
While I remain somewhat concerned about the caddie change with Zach Johnson, this will be his third start with his new looper, and the price tag is cheap enough to where I think we need to take notice. TPC Scottsdale offers a lot of opportunities to use short irons and wedges, which is where we all know ZJ specializes. He finished a respectable 28th in his last start at the Desert Classic two weeks ago, and he has made the cut in four consecutive years at this event. That stretch includes three solid top 15’s, and Johnson feels just a bit too cheap given those circumstances. I’ll happily use him as a middle tier option in GPP formats on any site this weekend.
Looking For A Rebound
It may not seem prudent to select Fowler after a poor showing at Torrey Pines last week, but that has become the norm for him. Over the last six years, Fowler has four missed cuts and two finishes of 60th or worse at that venue. He just doesn’t play well there. That hasn’t seem to affect him the following week in Phoenix, though, as he has a nice history of bouncing back for this tournament. He’s finished 2nd, 4th, and 11th in the last three editions of the Phoenix Open, and he probably should have won one of those. The price tag is very fair for a golfer of his caliber, and he ranks well above average in most statistical metrics despite a “down” start to the year. He ranked 11th on Tour in ball striking last year, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds his way to a victory again. He’s a polarizing player, and many think that he is overrated, but he’s becoming a bargain at his current price point. This is a great spot to buy low.
Simply Dominating
It’s borderline foolish to look to anyone else as the top play on the board at this point. Rahm is LOCKED in with three straight top eight finishes in the month of January, and he has finished 16th or better in all three of his previous trips to this event. He currently ranks 4th in strokes gained off the tee, and he’s well above average in virtually any metric you look at — especially the ones that are relevant to success at TPC Scottsdale. Simply put, there’s little reason to expect a letdown at a venue that he clearly likes, and the only rationale behind not playing him is a high salary and potentially high ownership. I’m not going to be the one to boldly fade him when he’s locked in and playing with confidence.
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over fifteen minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Perfect weather for golf the next few days so no need to stack tee time waves. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Weather update for The Farmers Insurance Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report is up for this week’s tour event, and it appears that weather can be eliminated from a roster build perspective this week. It looks like perfect weather on the west coast, which should lead to plenty of great golf. If you are looking to gain an edge in GPP’s, you could look at exploring the idea of stacking course draws. Over the first two rounds, golfers will play one round each on both the North and the South courses at Torrey Pines. Historically the south course yields lower scores and 8 out of the last nine winners of this event have started out the week on the South course.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Rickie Fowler set to make his 2019 debut
Rickie Fowler will tee it up for the first time in 2019 at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open. As a lead member of the Farmers Insurance team, this week has to be a very busy one for Fowler. With three straight missed cuts at Torrey Pines, Fowler is a golfer that seems to be off the radar of many in the industry. Week in and week out there are not many courses where Fowler does not pop in terms of a statistical fit. On paper, Torrey Pines should be a course that he plays well year in and year out, but with four missed cuts and only one top ten in seven starts, this tournament does not appear to suit Fowler’s game. A deeper look at why Fowler has played bad at Torrey Pines reveals that he has lost shots on the green in all but two of the years that he has played this tournament. To put that in perspective Fowler has gained at least a stroke putting in his last 100 tour starts, but at this event, he loses on average -.85 shots on the putting green per tournament. Cleary one of the best tee to green players in the game Fowler is a type of player that can easily contend here if he gets hot with the putter. Trending at a low ownership number for the week, Fowler has historically proven there is enough talent to take a shot on him in a GPP despite his poor course history at Torrey Pines.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Justin Rose is flying under the radar
With the perhaps the best field of this young PGA Tour season, ownership projections for The Farmers Open reflect the difficult roster choices gamers face this week. One such player who appears to be criminally low owned for the week is the world’s number one player Justin Rose. Playing in his second start of the season, Rose is currently projected to garnish an ownership south of 10%. With so many big names in this week’s field, it’s natural to see ownership spread out, and with Tiger Woods having such big ownership pull it’s easy to see how someone like Rose can get lost in the shuffle. From a game theory perspective, a pivot from other popular players in the same price range makes a ton of sense. This number one ranked player in the world has posted back to back top ten’s in this event, and without a doubt has both the course fit and game to play well this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Hideki Matsuyama stands out as a great mid tier play
International superstar Hideki Matsuyama is set to make his 2019 debut this week at Torrey Pines. Even though he was winless in 2018, Matsuyama was able to finish inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings for the fifth straight season. Fueled by three straight top five or better finishes to close out the season, Matsuyama was able to turn what could have been a down year into a positive one. Priced down in this week’s strong field, Matsuyama is gaining steam as a top player in our mid-tier DraftKings rankings for the week. Looking to improve a solid T12 at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open this 33 ranked player in the world sticks out as a miss-priced golfer on DraftKings and has historically shown an ability to crush both ceiling and floor at this price.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings