DFS Alerts
Harris English has sneaky value this week
If you have played DFS golf over the last few years the thought of adding Harris English to your roster builds is not exactly a comforting idea. Over the last few years, English has been in a prolonged slump. An often inaccurate driver has been a burden for English over the last few seasons, but with decent play of late, this is the type of player we can look to for value at this venue. Much will be made this week about how it’s important to hit fairways at Torrey Pines, but the truth of the matter is that course setup really allows bombers to gouge it out of the rough placing less importance on accuracy and more on raw distance. With six career made cuts at this event including a top 10 last season English has the ability to play this style of golf. Value priced across the industry English has both the course fit and history needed in order to consider him as GPP option for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Charles Howell looks to build on an excellent course history
Charles Howell is a player we tend to target early and often on the West Coast swing. For whatever reason, this PGA Tour veteran typically plays well this time of the year and unlike seasons past, Howell has a recent win to help bolster his confidence. The course history debate is often a hot topic amongst many in the DFS community, and if you are a believer in a player’s past performance at a venue, then Howell is a golfer you want to target this week. Plas paying in 17th Farmers Insurance Open, Howell has a perfect cut record including 8 top 10 or better finishes. Still priced up due to his solid start to the season, many could stray away from Howell in favor of other big names in the field, but Howell has a strong floor and ceiling combo that makes him a great play in all formats this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Tony Finau set to make his 2019 season debut
Coming off his best season to date, Tony Finau has quickly asserted himself as one of the stronger talents on tour. Currently ranked in the 10th position in the world, Finau has amassed 33 top 25 or better finishes in his last 60 starts on tour. With 20 of those 33 finishes inside the top 10 or better, Fianu only lacks wins to truly put him in a class of the best players in the game. With a skill set that seemingly fits into every course on tour, it’s no surprise to see Finau trending as a popular pick for the week. Looking to improve on 4 consecutive top 25 or better finishes at this event Finau makes for a great play in all formats for this year’s Farmers Open.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Jordan Spieth continues to fight through a long slump
Making his 4th career start at The Farmers Open and his first since the 2015 season, Jordan Spieth enters this week with hopes of ending a prolonged slump. Not only was Spieth winless during the 2018 season, but he also failed to make it to the Tour Championship for the first time in his career. After missing the cut at The Sony Open, Spieth has fallen to the 20th place in the world golf rankings. The price of $8,900 on DraftKings would normally scream value with a player of Spieth’s caliber, but our early week ownership projections show a very weak interest in this former number one player in the world. In what is shaping up to be a very strong field, there is a better than average chance that Spieth even at a discount will trend towards a low ownership number. You would have to think that Spieth is too talented for this type of slump to go on for much longer, and for those who are more risk tolerant the combination of price and ownership could prove too good to pass up.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Tiger Woods to make season debut with new equipment
As The PGA Tour heads into the second week of its famed west coast swing, much of the pre-tournament talk will center around Tiger Woods making his season debut. In what is already a very strong field, Woods at a course in which he plays extremely well should easily garnish a ton of media coverage for the week. Not only is Woods making his season debut, but this seven-time Farmer Open Champion will also put into a new set of irons this week. Woods has been playing a prototype of this iron for the better part of a year, so this finished product should not be an issue. Like we have seen with other players making equipment modifications during the offseason, the timing of this type of move does not tend to affect play. Woods now one year removed from starting his comeback to the game of golf will look to start off his 2019 season at a venue that seems to always get some of his best golf.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Chesson Hadley looks to bounce back from a missed cut
At this point, last season Chesson Hadley was in a position to get his PGA Tour career back on track. Hadley had to earn his way back on tour via The Web.Com tour and with a solid 2018 campaign, he can now focus on playing well in the new year. Currently ranked inside the top 30 in this year’s FedEx Cup standings, Hadley enters this week looking to bounce back from a missed cut at last week’s Desert Classic. With 15 top 25 or better finishes in his last 36 PGA Tour starts, Hadley has shown the ability to compete with the best in the game. Priced down a bit this week, Hadley has the talent and ability to make him one of the top players in terms of Pt/$/K in our projections for the week. Strokes gained tee to green will be a popular metric used for Torrey Pines and Hadley finished inside the top 40 in that category last season making him a player who should pop in some models this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Cut Maker with Upside
Stanley is going to be a popular value play this week, but that doesn’t mean that he is bad chalk. In my eyes, bad chalk is when everyone congregates around a volatile golfer that is really cheap. Stanley is consistent, he’s a solid fit for the course, he is coming off of a T22 at the Sony Open, and he has made four straight cuts at this event. Even though his putting can take him out of contention from time to time, he has an underrated around the green game. I love his chances to make the cut this week and his price is more than reasonable across the industry.
Elite Talent at a Discount
Matsuyama is looking to bounce back in a big way this season. After being forced to withdraw from the Waste Management Open last season, he hasn’t looked the same. When he’s at his best, he’s hitting fairways and throwing darts into the greens. His recent form hasn’t been amazing, but it’s worth noting that he has gained at least seven strokes on his approaches four times in his last six events that had ShotLink data. If the good Hideki shows up this week, he’s an absolute steal on DraftKings at $8,000. While he has missed two cuts here in the last five years, both were right on the number.
Solid All-Around Game
Grillo has not missed a cut since the Open Championship in July. Since then, he has posted four top 15 finishes, including two in his last three events. Grillo is one of those players that seems to do everything well. He’s a good total driver of the golf ball, his approach numbers are solid, and he’s really improved on the greens. He’s ranked 37th in strokes gained putting in this field over the last 50 rounds. He’s a good fit for the course, he’s in good form, and he’s posted finishes of T33 and T12 here the last two years. He’s a very safe cash game play with some upside.
A Win on Home Soil?
Cantlay shook off the rust last week at the Desert Classic. He finished inside the top ten, despite losing four strokes putting on his two rounds at the Stadium Course. Much like Tony Finau, Cantlay has been incredibly consistent over the last two years. He’s been a top ten and top 25 machine and something tells me he is going to pick up a win during this West Coast swing. Cantlay is a California native, so he will feel right at home on these poa annua greens (on the South Course). While his T51 here last year isn’t all that promising, he lost six strokes putting that week. His ball striking is as good as anyone’s on tour right now, so if the putter shows up, he’s going to be in the mix on Sunday.
Highest Floor of any Golfer in the Field?
Finau is eventually going to pick up a better win than the Puerto Rico Open. He has been one of the most consistent golfers on tour over the last year of play and is up to sixth in the Official World Golf Rankings. He’s great off the tee, he’s great with approaches, and he’s ranked first in this field in birdie or better percentage. Many golfers need a certain type of course to play well, but Finau seems to play well everywhere. He’s played the Farmers Insurance Open four times, posting four top 25 finishes and back-to-back top six finishes. He arguably has the highest floor of any golfer in the field, yet he’s considerably cheaper than the other elite golfers in the field.
King of Torrey Pines
Tiger is set to make his 2019 debut at the Farmers Insurance Open, which has been a regular stop in his career. His results at Torrey Pines have been mixed over the last six years (T23, MC, WD, MC, win), but from 1998-2008, he shot a combined -159 at Torrey Pines with seven wins during that stretch. The next lowest score in relation to par was Phil Mickelson at -57. This was the first event that he played last season and he narrowly made the cut and put together a strong weekend to finish T23. His driver really picked it up toward the end of last season and we know his approach play is as good as anyone’s. If he can avoid the slow start (took him out of so many tournaments last year), we could see Tiger in contention early this year.
Value Priced
If you want more of a boom/bust pick compared to Spaun, give my man Keith Mitchell a look. Most of you know how much I love his “all systems go” game, and he will absolutely fire after some birdies on the par fives on these courses. Mitchell scores fantasy points in bunches, as he showed with his ace-birdie-eagle stretch to end the second round at the Sony Open two weeks ago. His distance off the tee should play well here, and I like the fact that he got more experience on the South Course with a made cut (albeit a 63rd place finish) a year ago. At this value price tag, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Mitchell end up as one of the top scoring values of the week — particularly on FD & FDRAFT where his price tag is extremely cheap on a comparative basis.
Bounce Back Spot At Lower Ownership
Along with Luke List, here is Exhibit #2 of 2 on players who let people down last week, and it’s even more mouth-watering with Niemann. The stars are aligning after his relative disappointment a week ago. He won’t be nearly as highly owned as he was for the Desert Classic, especially since the masses will look and see that he has no PGA Tour course history at this event. However, Niemann just happened to win the Junior World Championships here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’s no stranger to Torrey Pines. He’s on record that he obviously likes the course, and he is a fantastic play at his current DFS price tags, which are much cheaper than we have seen for him recently. This is a great spot to buy low on a golfer who still ranks around the top 50 in driving distance and ball striking despite a relatively underwhelming fall swing. Don’t be surprised if he’s a sneaky contender come Sunday.
Take A Trip To The ATM
Yes it’s weird to see Howell sitting with price tags in his current range, but he has done everything he can (and then some) to earn that price level. Once again, he will be playing on a set of courses where he has played well in the past, as he has made the cut all 16 times he has played here. Eight of those 16 trips have resulted in top ten finishes, and that includes four straight top 20’s. This is nothing to scoff at or take lightly. He hammered greens in regulation with ease again last week, and his combination of floor and ceiling are very evident at this point. Howell isn’t the same type of chalky play like he was in the days where he was priced about $1,500 to $2,000 cheaper on all the sites, and that actually makes him more appealing for GPP formats. He’s an ATM who does nothing but print money (for us and for himself!) in these winter events.