DFS Alerts
APS - Always Play Stricker
The final play of the week is one of the safest. Stricker hasn’t played this event (or any other PGA Tour event) much over the last few years, but it sounds like there is a Champions Tour event in Hawaii next week, so he’ll tee it up at Waialae. If we just look at his course history over the last five years, it’s not much — he has one 64th place finish and nothing else. However, he did finish eighth here in 2011 and third here in 2010. Stricker is always viable on shorter courses that require precision with your irons and good putting. While I’m not sure he provides winning type of upside, I would be shocked if he’s not around for the weekend.
Two-Time Winner of this Event
I really didn’t expect to be writing up Walker this week. Ever since he came down with Lyme disease, I’ve been rooting for him to make a comeback. He flashed some form last season, but I could never really get on board with playing him in DFS. For whatever reason, I’m extremely high on Walker this week. He’s made his last two cuts on tour (both in the Fall swing season) and he’s won this event two times. He’s played here the last two seasons, missing the cut on the number both times. Walker is wild off the tee, but good with his irons and a very streaky putter. Hopefully good memories will be flowing this week and he can put together four solid rounds.
Social Media Narrative
Narratives are often overblown in DFS. When a golfer Tweets that they are feeling good before a tournament, it will bump their ownership up across the industry. While we should be careful with narratives, it’s hard to overlook Piercy this week. He often does Q&A’s on Twitter and he goes out of his way to answer questions about his favorite course and his favorite tournament. He always answers with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. He has an excellent track record here and he comes into the week in great form, posting four straight top 20 finishes. He’s one of the worst putters on tour, but it’s worth noting that he loses fewer strokes per round on Bermuda than on any other grass type.
What a Nickname -- The Chezsticle
Reavie burned me so many times in the second half of 2018. He was a regular feature of my picks article in the early part of the year and he strung together some incredible finishes. As the summer approached, he kept missing cuts right on the number. I hope that’s a thing of the past, as he’s made six straight cuts on tour with no finish worse than T43. Much like the other golfers in this week’s picks, his biggest strengths are iron play and putting. He clearly has an eye for the course, posting finishes of 18th, 8th, 42nd, and 26th over the last four years.
The Most Hated Golfer in America
Poulter is my favorite sleeper play of the week. He’s not an easy guy to root for. He’s very brash and he doesn’t care much for Americans. It doesn’t help that he’s been our nemesis in the Ryder Cup for many years. This always helps lower his ownership in DFS, even though he’s a grinder that makes a ton of cuts on tour. He’s ranked 14th in this field in both strokes gained approach and in my proximity blend. His preferred putting surface is Bermuda where he gains around 0.4 strokes per round on the field. He played in last week’s Tournament of Champions and gained strokes off the tee, on his approaches, and around the greens. The putter held him back (-4 SGP), but I expect that to flip back the other way this week.
Don't you Love When People Say ATM Machine?
The way lineup builds are setting up for me this week are tricky — I want to play Thomas and I would like to play Kuchar and Johnson. However, that’s tough to do (at least on DraftKings), so I will likely end up making two lineups, one with Kuchar and one with Johnson. The two are similar players in that their strengths are with their irons and on the greens. It’s no surprise that they have both turned this event into a personal ATM. Johnson has finished inside the top 15 here in four of the last five years and has a win back in 2009. He’s ranked third in this field in my proximity blend, which should come in handy given the fact that everyone will be hitting these greens.
Strangely Flying Under the Radar
Kuchar didn’t have the best year in 2018, but he did pick up a win in Mexico at a course that correlates very well with this one. I always like to target Kuchar on courses that negate the advantage bombers have off the tee. There are plenty of less than driver holes on this course and the fairways are tough for everyone. The course requires a solid iron game and a good putter, which are two of Kuchar’s strengths. Many seem to be overlooking Kuchar’s course history here, even though he has posted finishes of 13th, 3rd, 8th, 5th, and 5th over his last five appearances. Kuchar is always a safe bet to make the cut and he has some winning equity in this less than stacked field.
Soft Pricing = Play the Favorite
I try to treat every tournament like their own unique puzzle when it comes to DFS. Given how many golfers I like in the mid-range and given how much I like JT in this tournament, it makes sense to load up on him for both cash games and tournaments. The time to fade the most expensive golfer is when he’s not in a great spot or when there aren’t enough values to build a solid lineup around him. That’s not the case this week. Thomas is the number one golfer in the world, he’s second in this field in strokes gained approach, and he’s a former winner of this event. Each of the last five winners of this tournament played the week before at the Tournament of Champions, so I like that JT played last week and finished in third place (he gained 11 strokes on approaches). This is a classic don’t overthink it spot — JT is clearly the top overall play of the week.
Kevin Na could be out for up to 4 weeks
To the dismay of the DFS community Kevin Na withdrew after roster lock but before his tee time last week. According to Rex Hoggard, Na was seen practicing this week on the putting green at The Sony Open but could be out for at least 4 weeks. Na has not withdrawn from the field as of yet, but it appears that he is not ready to play. We will update his status if the news becomes official before roster lock.
As reported by: Rex Hoggard Twitter
Grayson Murray is no longer in the field
Grayson Murray withdrew from The Sony Open this morning. At this time there is no injury news associated with this move. He was replaced in the field by Joey Garber. Murray has flashed upside at times over the last two years, so if you were using him this week please remove him from your builds. Garber will not be in DFS pricing for the week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter The Wily Veteran
The 51 year-old Stricker is still capable of delivering the goods on the PGA Tour. At this stage, the veteran doesn’t play in a ton of Tour events any more, but he picks his spots. Usually, those spots are courses that suit his game, and Waialae is no exception. He is always a threat on courses where distance isn’t a requirement. Course history proponents might also ignore him this week, since he has only played here once over the last five years. However, he does have plenty of career success at Waialae with just one missed cut in more than ten trips to the venue to go along with two third place finishes and a fourth place finish. Stricker will pepper the fairways and greens and give himself a lot of chances to score. Despite his plodding nature, he’s one of my favorite GPP options of the week.
No Brainer
On a points per dollar basis, this is a no brainer pick for me this week. Howell has teed it up here 17 times, and he has made the cut every time. He has six finishes of fourth place or better despite never winning the tournament (two 2nd’s, two 3rd’s, and two 4th’s). Regardless of whether or not you weigh course history a lot, it’s hard to ignore those results. It’s even more eye-opening when you consider that Howell has been playing some of the best golf of his career over the past 6-8 months. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in ball striking so far in the 2018-2019 season, and he kicked off some rust with a decent performance at the Tournament of Champions last week after a rough first round. He’s a stud on this course and needs to be a fixture in lineups this week. It surprises me that he’s not priced higher than he is on every site.
Low Ownership, Intriguing Upside
There is no doubt that Kisner had an underwhelming 2018 year on the PGA Tour. By his standards, his game was “miss” much more than it was “hit” and it led to Kisner disappointing his DFS owners quite often. A time also came where there weren’t many of those DFS owners for him to disappoint on a weekly basis. He will almost certainly be flying under the radar for this event, and this just might be the spot to pounce in GPP formats. He ranked well above average in ball striking and greens in regulation during the fall swing, and he finished the fall season with a top ten finish at the RSM Classic. He has finishes of 24-4-5 here over the last three editions of the Sony Open, as well, so the form and course history just might be coming together at the right time. Shhhhh. He’s a potential 5% owned gem in this spot.
Alone At The Top
In an event that doesn’t exactly feature a loaded field, the former champion of this event has to be considered a favorite once again. In addition to his 2017 victory at Waialae, Thomas has two other top 15’s on his resume in four total trips to the venue. Despite his reputation as a bomber, Thomas has a well-rounded game and ranks 13th in ball striking and 9th in greens in regulation during the 2018-2019 season to date. Despite his hefty price tag, I’ll be sure to grab plenty of Thomas exposure in my GPP lineups, and I hope the higher price tag scares some people away.
Curtis Luck is no longer in the field
Curtis Luck is no longer in this week’s field. Luck played his way on to the PGA Tour via the Web.com Tour last season, so it’s a bit of a surprise to not see him in this week’s field. At this time there is no injury news associated with his choice to not play this week. Will we update his status in terms of an injury as news becomes available.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter