DFS Alerts
Bomber's Paradise in Hawaii
Woodland finally broke out and picked up a win last year at the Waste Management Open. It was long overdue, so it was no surprise to see him lose some motivation in the months following. We see this happen all the time on the PGA Tour. Toward the end of last season, he started playing great golf again, posting a bunch of top ten finishes. He’s ranked third in this field in strokes gained off the tee and first in par five scoring. He should be able to take advantage of the four par fives and of the drivable par fours. All it will take for him to find the winner’s circle again is a decent week with the flatstick.
Public Dislike for a Golfer can Create Low Ownership
Reed is one of the most hated players on the PGA Tour. When you combine that with his poor statistics, he generally flies under the radar when it comes to DFS. He’s burned many bridges in the past, so many DFS players just automatically exclude him from their player pools. That could be a big mistake this week, as he clearly has an eye for the this course. In his last three trips here, he has finishes of first, second, and sixth. He’s not an accurate driver of the golf ball, so these wide fairways give him a significant boost. He’s typically good with his irons when playing from the fairway and he has one of the strongest short games on tour.
Elite Golfer at a Discount
Whether you like DeChambeau or not, there is no denying that he’s a top ten golfer in the world (and arguably a top five golfer). His game translates anywhere — he is long and straight off the tee, he’s deadly accurate with his irons, and his putting took big strides forward last year. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see Bryson win a major this season and again, his game suits all types of courses. He is ranked sixth or better in this field in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, and par five scoring. He has nearly as much win equity as any golfer in the field, yet he’s considerably cheaper than Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka.
Bounce Back Season Ahead
Rahm is one of the most talented golfers in the world. Even though he had a great year by most golfer’s standards in 2018, it was a little disappointing given how many people projected him to be the top golfer on the planet. A down year might have been exactly what Rahm needed. The pressure is off and now he can come out and start winning tournaments again. Historically, he has played his best on easy golf courses and we have seen two golfers shoot 30-under par at this event in the past. Rahm is coming off of a win at the Hero World Challenge and should benefit from the wide fairways. While the shorter hitters can compete here, the edge clearly goes to the bombers this week.
Defending Champ with Something to Prove
How great is it to have DFS golf back in our lives? It’s actually nice that this is a short field event, as we don’t have to worry about a cut on Friday afternoon. We can ease our way back into things. The top play on the board this week is DJ, who dominates at this event each and every year. He’s the defending champion (won by eight strokes) and has finished inside the top ten in each of his last four appearances here. This is a course that features wide fairways, so it’s bombs away for golfers like Johnson. He should be able to feast on the four par fives and on the drivable par fours (he stuck a drive last year within a foot of the cup). While it’s hard to go wrong with any of the elite options, I’ll take DJ over Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas this week.
Ten minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over ten minutes until roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Outside of the Ben Martin withdrawal from earlier in the week, there is no news to report ahead of the first round. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Joaquin Niemann gaining steam amongst our experts
Just as some of the buzz around one of the tour’s popular young players was starting to wear off, Joaquin Niemann finds himself in a great spot for the last event of the wraparound season. Priced very reasonable across the industry Niemann sits as the over number one pick in our expert rankings for the second pricing tier on DraftKings for the week. While his game logs have not been exactly on fire to start the season it’s hard to find a reason to pay up for players like Lucas Glover or J.J. Spaun instead of the young and talented Niemann. Playing his opening round on the Plantation Course Niemann has a chance to get off to a fast start this week. The Plantation course typically plays almost a shot easier than the SeaSide course, so if you are playing the showdown slate there is some merit to stacking the easier of the two courses. Niemann has shown early in his PGA Tour career that he has what it takes to win on golf’s biggest stage, and in this somewhat weak field, few would be surprised if he held the trophy at weeks end.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Weather update for The RSM Classic
Rotogrinders own Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has the final weather report for the wrap around season up in the main forum. According to Roth, weather could give a small advantage to the Thursday AM/ Friday PM wave. While the advantage appears to be very small it’s worth noting that golfers in this wave will have softer conditions on Thursday and fewer winds than those golfers in the late Thursday early Friday wave. As always we will keep an eye on the weather up until lock so make sure to check back prior to the start of round one for any last minute news.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Chris Kirk looks to build on a strong course history
Priced up a bit higher than most would like to see, Chris Kirk is still a great option for The RSM Classic. Having lived in the area for over six years Kirk has a ton of experience playing both courses. Evident by his solid track record at this event Kirk feel comfortable playing this tournament. Playing in his ninth RSM classic this week, Kirk is 6 for 8 in cuts made with a win and two top tens. In a week where prices are off due to lack overall talent, it’s important to understand and adjust price based expectations. Trying to justify any play because of what we feel is a good or bad price in terms of past pricing history will be a bit harder this week. Lucas Glover just regained his PGA Tour card via PGA Tour school and is priced way higher than many would expect. From a cash game perspective, Kirk with a solid course history makes sense even if the price feels high. Low projected ownership could even make Kirk a great GPP option at a venue where he tends to play some of his best golf.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Ben Martin is no longer in the field
Ben Martin withdrew early today from The RSM Championship. At this time there is no injury news associated with his decision not to play. Stuart Appleby will take his place in the field, but will not be available for DFS pricing.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Webb Simpson clearly the number one option
The RSM Classic field leaves a lot to be desired in terms of big-name talent. With players like Lucas Glover and J.J. Spaun sitting inside the top five for pricing on the week it’s very easy to see why Webb Simpson is both the most popular and expensive golfer for the week. No offense to aforementioned Glover and Spaun, both of whom are more likely to fail than succeed in terms of performance vs price this week, but Simpson is clearly the class of this field. The current players champion withdrew from this event last season after two rounds ( tied for 7th) so he could be by the side of his dying father. Simpson both has the game and the course record worthy of the top player in terms of trust for the week. In his 22 rounds at this event, Simpson has only shot over 71 twice. While you certainly don’t have to pay up for anyone in this price range to take down a GPP, Simpson is clearly the best top end spend for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Bill Haas looks to get back on track
Multiple PGA Tour winner and former Presidents Cup Team member Bill Haas is playing this week’s tour event on a conditional PGA Tour status. Haas fell short of the money needed to gain full status for this season via his medical exemption last year, so he will not have the luxury of setting his schedule at this point in the season. Motivated to play well, Haas enters this week with a very solid course history to build on. In addition to his runner-up finish at the 2010 RSM Classic, Haas has posted top 25 or better finishes in two out of his last four trips to Sea Island. In three fall starts Haas has posted two top 15 or better finishes and appears ready to put the 2018 season behind him as he prepares to battle his way back to the PGA Tour. A motivated Haas at a discount stands out as a great source of value for the last event of the fall swing.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Great Iron Player
Im missed the cut on the number last week, burning nearly 20% of the field in the process. While he let us down, there is no reason to be scared to target him again. Throughout his career on the Web.com Tour, he almost always bounced back from a missed cut with a strong finish. We saw that a few weeks ago on the PGA Tour, after posting a T15 at the Shriners after missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms. He hits a ton of fairways and is ranked 14th in this field in proximity. One missed cut on the number shouldn’t dissuade us from playing a golfer with a ton of upside.
Elite Course History
Kirk is slightly overpriced this week, but I’m willing to pay a premium for him. He doesn’t come into the week in the best of form, missing two cuts in his last four events. Combine that with a hefty price tag and I doubt he ends up being more than 10% owned. Kirk is very familiar with St Simons Island, living there for six years. He has 300+ rounds under his belt at the two courses in rotation this week. He clearly likes the course, as evidenced by a win and two fourth place finishes here in the last five years.
Getting Close to a Breakout Win
Ryder is my darkhorse to compete this week. He has been up and down throughout his short PGA Tour career, but has top four finishes in two of his last four events. If he has a decent week with the putter, he could easily find himself in one of the final tee times on Sunday. He’s ranked first in this field in strokes gained approach, sixth in birdie or better percentage, and third in proximity. His statistics certainly align well on a course that requires strong iron play. It doesn’t hurt that Ryder played here last season, finishing in a tie for 61st.