DFS Alerts
Progressively Better Results
Let me start by saying that Webb Simpson is an excellent play this week in all formats. He’s clearly the top overall play of the slate. However, I like my balanced lineup builds a bit more, so I will be starting with C.T. Pan instead. He has posted progressively better finishes in five straight events: 38th, 30th, 23rd, 22nd, and 16th. He fits the course perfectly, as his two biggest strengths are hitting fairways and his iron play. He clearly has an eye for the course, as he has finished in the top 15 at this event in each of the last two years. He’s my favorite play on the board and a golfer that I plan to hit the lock button on this week.
Jason Dufner is searching for answers on the greens
Jason Dufner has always been known as a great ball striker. Throughout his 13 years on tour, success from week to week often depends on Dufner’s ability to manage his often balky putter. This former major champion will play for the second time this year with a bit of a new look when it comes to his putting stroke. Dufner will go to both a new putter and a new stroke for The RSM Championship. Like last week’s winner Matt Kuchar, Dufner will go with a longer putter aligned along his left arm. The hope for Dufner is that this new stroke will remove his tendency to deloft the putter throughout the stroke. While it’s still a bit risky to consider this a permanent fit for Dufner we should keep an eye on him moving forward. Dufner has really struggled to find the form that allowed him to win during the 2017 season, but that could all change if this new putting stroke begins to take place.
As reported by: Golf Week
Henrik Norlander in this week's field on a sponsors invite
Thirty-one-year-old Swedish golfer Henrik Norlander will make his 2018-2019 PGA season debut at this week’s RSM Classic. In the field, via sponsor’s exemption, Norlander will look to carry over his solid play from earlier this year on the Web.com Tour. Norlander went 19 for 24 in cuts made while posting 10 top 25 or better finishes on the Web.com last season. Finishing in the 32nd place on the final Web.com standings, Norlander will need to play well early and often this season if he has any hopes of improving his reshuffle status moving forward. Playing in his fourth RSM Classic, Norlander does have a bit of previous success to build on for this week. Norlander is three for four in cuts made at The RSM Classic including a runner-up finish to Mackinze Hughes two years ago. The combination of his past success and steady play on The Web.com Tour has Norlander trending as a strong player in terms of Pt/$/k in this week’s projections.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Rolling With Some Solid Form
I wrote him up as my top value play last week and he produced a solid 29th place finish, which was his second consecutive top 30 outing. His statistical rankings in the early going aren’t super great, but it’s worth noting that we are still dealing with a very small sample size, and much of his rankings are attributable to the two missed cuts that he had out of the gate. His ball striking and approach play profile better than what his statistical rankings currently show, and he should head into this event with more confidence after two strong starts. He’s a Texas native who should also feel comfortable at this venue, and I like him as a value once again this week.
Ready For A Rebound Season
I absolutely love this spot for Bill Haas. Sea Island is a perfect layout for his golf game, and he had posted three straight top 35 finishes here prior to a missed cut last season. I will completely throw out last year’s result, as Haas was simply in poor form as a result of his fragile mental state after the tragic car accident that he was involved in. He seems to have turned a corner now, and he is 3/3 making cuts in the new season with a pair of top 15’s. After all, it was only a few years ago when Haas was the selection as Josh Culp’s “Searching for a Specialist” pick in his RotoGrinders article for this event. Now that his form is back in a positive state, Haas is a great contrarian pick. He’s a fine pick on these courses that don’t require distance off the tee, and he’s my dark horse for a top 20 this week.
He May Be Boring, But There's Potential Here
Furyk looks like a completely different golfer now with the Ryder Cup stuff in the rear view mirror, and this is the perfect type of course at which to target him. He finished sixth last week at Mayakoba with four straight sub-70 rounds, while finishing second in the field in greens in regulation. He also finished sixth here two years ago and has finished inside the top 12 in all three of his trips to this event. While he has a reputation as a golfer who makes a lot of pars, he has proven that he can score in shootouts in the past, and I feel like he will be lower owned than he should be at these DFS prices.
The Top Play By A Mile
The gap from Simpson to the rest of the field this week is HUGE. When you combine experience with talent, he simply laps this field. He has made the cut in every trip to this event since 2010, with results of 12-2-7-41-36-WD along the way – and the withdrawal last year was prior to the third round when he sat in 12th place. He withdrew to be with his dad before he passed away, and that’s obviously 100% understandable. By the way, Simpson is also currently riding a streak of three straight top 15 finishes. There’s literally nothing to find fault with in his current profile, and his putting is light years better than it was a couple years ago. Don’t get cute, and get some exposure to Webb this week.
Ten minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over ten minutes until roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Outside of the Bronson Burgoon withdrawal from earlier in the week, there is no news to report ahead of the first round. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Sungjae Im is a great source of value this week
Currently ranked inside the top 25 in the FedEx Cup race, PGA tour rookie Sunjae Im enters this week as a value play worthy of roster consideration. A key to playing well at El Camaleon is to hit fairways, and Im has shown early and often in his career that he is more than capable in that department. Last season on the Web.com Tour, Im finished 23rd in driving accuracy by hitting almost 70 percent of fairways. Playing his way near the lead in on a Sunday in his first start of the season put Im firmly in play as a rookie worth paying attention to this season. Coming off a very respectable T15 at last weeks Shiners Hospitals for Children Open, Im has both the skill set and the current form we are looking for in terms of a value play with the option for upside.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Zach Johnson set to make his season debut
Looking to bounce back from multiple winless seasons PGA Tour veteran Zach Johnson will make his 2018-2019 debut at The Mayakoba Classic. While Johnson has not won since the 2015 British Open, he is still one of the more consistent players on tour. Coming off a season in which he posted 14 top 25 or better finishes in 25 starts Johnson could use a good performance in a weaker field to get his game back on track. Priced up due to his name recognition and the lack of talent in this field Johnson is a player that could fly under the radar for the week. Currently projected to have an ownership of less than 8% Johnson makes for an intriguing GPP flyer in terms of a higher end spend. With much of the course fit buzz for the week pointing to accuracy over distance, Johnson should find this type of venue to suit his game. Playing in this event for the second time, Johnson will look to improve on his T23 showing in last season.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Anders Albertson ranks as a great value play yet again
Web.com Tour standout Anders Albertson heads into this week looking to build on the momentum gained from back to back successful starts on the PGA Tour. Like many other Web.com Tour graduates, Albertson knows that a hot start during the wraparound season can lead to a ton of momentum and valuable FedEx Cup points to start the season. In 23 starts on The Web.com Tour last season, Albertson amassed 14 top 25 or better finishes including a win at the Lincoln Land Championship. Still priced low in comparison to his recent play Albertson in the number one spot in terms of Pt/$/K in our FanDuel projections for the week. Albertson is quickly gaining popularity as a top value play early in the season, and if he can continue to play well at this price there is no reason to not plug this rookie into your builds for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Cameron Davis looks to build on a great course history
El Camaleon G.C. is a course that PGA Tour rookie Cameron Davis knows quite well. In addition to his T15 finish in last year’s Mayakoba Golf Classic Davis also has an amateur win under his belt at El Camaleon. During the 2016 World Amateur Team Championship, Davis as a member of the Australian Team won the individual scoring title for the week. That performance earned Davis a spot into last year’s Mayakoba Classic. Currently ranked in the 100th position in the world Davis has two worldwide wins under his belt in the last year and heads into this week as a solid source of value in all format. Playing on a course that appears to fit his game Davis makes for a great fit in all formats as he prepares to get his PGA rookie season off on the right foot.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Matt Kuchar looks to bounce back from a disappointing season
The 2017 PGA Tour season marked the first time in the last nine years that Matt Kuchar failed to crack the top 20 in the year-end FedEx Cup standings. The normally steady and consistent Kuchar did not play his best golf towards the end of last year and enters this week as a player who we can look to target at a discount. Kuchar did not putt well last week resulting in a T57 at The Shriners so there is hope that once the flat stick returns he can begin to show signs of life in his game. From a long-term standpoint, this is a great spot to invest in what in all likely hood is still a very talented player at a decent discount. Long considered a great building block for cash game lineups, Kuchar could end up being one of the safest plays, as well as being one of the stronger points per dollar plays by the end of the week. Kuchar has not played this event much in his career, which could point as a sign that he knows the importance of trying to get back on track in what is a normally a weaker field.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Good Fit and a High Floor
Pan has been a regular feature in my column during the swing season and while he doesn’t have any high finishes, he has yet to disappoint. He has four straight top 40 finishes on tour and he’s made the cut here in both of his attempts. Some will say that he lacks upside, but he nearly won the Wyndham a few months back. This course is a great fit for Pan, as he is ranked eighth in good drives gained, sixth in strokes gained approach, and tenth in par four scoring. He’s a safe bet to make the cut and I like his odds to finish inside the top ten this week.
Coming off of a Strong Ball Striking Week
It will be interesting to see how highly owned Kuchar will be this week. He’s cheap across the industry and he’s playing in a weak field. This is a classic Kuchar top ten spot. However, his form has been a concern over the last six months. Most people will see his T57 last week and the Shriners and think that he’s still in bad form. However, he gained two strokes off the tee and nearly five on approaches. He lost nearly eight strokes to the field on and around the greens. That’s typically his bread and butter. If the ball striking continues this week and his short game can turn around, he could be one of the best point-per-dollar plays of the slate.