DFS Alerts
Dark Horse to Win in Malaysia
Pan is my dark horse to win this week. He knocked on the door so many times last season, but ultimately couldn’t get the job done. He’s a golfer to watch in the swing season and I will be playing him every time he steps out onto the course. He’s ranked seventh in this field in good drive percentage, 18th in strokes gained approach, third in par four scoring, and seventh in bogey avoidance. His par five scoring is a small concern, but three of the four par fives on this course are reachable by the field. Pan played here last season, finishing in a tie for 17th.
Time to Mend our Rocky Relationship
Na is one of the most frustrating golfers on the planet. He plays slow, he is always yelling at his caddy, and he is incredibly inconsistent when it comes to DFS. I never seem to be on the right side of him (a lot like Chris Kirk, who missed the cut again last week). However, I’m trying to avoid be biased and will be trusting the numbers. Na is ranked second in this field in birdie or better percentage, fourth in par four scoring, and he always seems to flourish on shorter golf courses. His approach game is one of the best on tour, so we should always give him a boost on courses where strong iron play matters. He’s played here each of the last four years, posting finishes of T44, T29, T3, and T2.
Looking to Capitalize on a Strong Finish to Last Season
If you decide to fade Thomas and take more of a balanced route, Woodland is my favorite golfer to start with. He played great during the swing season last year, he picked up a win at the Waste Management Open, and then he fell off the map for a while. Luckily, he found his swing late in the season, gaining strokes off the tee in each of his last eight events and gaining strokes on approach in seven of those events. This course has four par fives, which places an importance on par five scoring. In this field, there isn’t a golfer that scores better on the par fives than Woodland. His last three years at this event haven’t been great, but he did post back-to-back second place finishes here in 2013 and 2014.
Safe to Say this Golfer is the Clear-Cut Favorite
If you find a reason to not like Thomas this week, I’d like to hear it. He’s clearly the most talented golfer in the field, as he is ranked fourth in the official world golf rankings. He clearly has the best course history (two wins and a T17 in the last three seasons). He’s also the best fit for the course, grading out as number one in my stat model. He’s ranked fifth in approach, first in birdie or better percentage, first in par four scoring, third in par five scoring, and fourth in bogey avoidance. We can’t even be concerned about his form, as he posted three top 12 finishes in his last four PGA Tour events. He’s 5-to-1 to win this event and since there isn’t a cut, we can easily take the stars and scrubs approach when building lineups.
Thailand's Finest
Making his first start as a PGA TOUR card-carrying member, this tournament will mean a lot to the Thai. He’s won’t be uncomfortable though, because this is a course he’s already played in competition, many times. In fact, he won here while playing a European Tour event. That same year he also finished T3 at the CIMB Classic, so this track certainly suits his eye. The change of grasses shouldn’t bother him because each of his four-best putting performances on the PGA TOUR have come on bermuda greens. That includes a +5.5 SGP performance at this year’s PLAYERS. TPC Kuala Lumpur now has idential grass types as THE PLAYERS. He doesn’t bring much form to the table but this is the type of event that should spark a run of form for the Big Thai.
GPP Upside
It’s scary to support Lahiri this week if you look at his current form but there is more to the story. Lahiri has a long history playing here at TPC Kuala Lumpur. He bagged a top 10 at the 2014 Malaysian Maybank and returned the following year to win the event. He’s also gone T21-T3-T10 over his last three appearances at the CIMB. On top of those top 10s here, he also posted a top 5 at THE CJ CUP last year. Lahiri grew up in Asia and played plenty plenty of golf around these parts. There is definitely a comfort factor when he comes back to Asia. Given his form, I would restrict this to GPPs only, but I like his chances to potentially pop this week and toss his name into the mix.
Short Game Gains
Sometimes it is the little things that make all the difference. For Kokrak, he’s found his short game over the last two months. From a long-time lens, he’s negative in the SG Around-the-Green and Putting departments. More recently, he’s gained strokes around-the-green in four of his last five starts and also gained strokes putting in four of his last six starts. Ball-striking is never a concern for him, so it looks like a good window to invest while his short game is still synced up.
Abraham Ancer set to return to action this week
Last week’s early withdrawal from The Safeway Open should keep the ownership numbers of Abraham Ancer down this week. With no apparent news regarding his injury, it appears that Ancer is ready to return to action this week. With a commitment to play in the Australian Open announced last week one would assume Ancer’s absence last week to be more precautionary than anything else. Prior to the news of his injury, Ancer finished the 2018 season on a very strong note. With three top 10 finishes in his last 8 starts, Ancer is a golfer worth taking notice of as a player trending in the right direction. Playing in his first CIMB Classic Ancer has a great opportunity to jump-start his 2019 PGA Tour campaign in this limited field event. Motivated to keep his card for the second straight year, events like The CIMB Classic are very important to Ancer at this point in his career. Currently projected at a very low ownership number, the addition of Ancer to your roster builds offers both uniqueness and a potential of upside for the CIMB Classic.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership
Bombs Away!
We haven’t seen him much on the PGA Tour lately, but this course is a nice fit for a bomber like Pieters. His risk/reward nature should benefit him, and the fact that this is a no-cut event also helps the outlook. He got some experience here last year and should fare much better in his second trip. He has the most top ten upside out of all the value-priced golfers this week.
A Young Golfer With Many Positive Trends
Ryder is a super talented young golfer who already appears to be making big strides toward a solid PGA Tour season. He was rock solid last week at the Safeway Open with a fourth place finish that included 17 birdies and two eagles. He grades out above average statistically in every metric I am looking at for this event, and I expect improvement on those metrics in 2019. The price tag remains very reasonable, and he’s one of the cheapest options on the FanDuel board. Fire him up with confidence in GPP formats this week, with the only real negative being his lack of experience on this course.
A Fine Play Despite the Elevated Price
The price tag is a bit of a sticker shock with Cabrera-Bello, as well, but hopefully that serves to keep his GPP ownership in check. He’s a fine tee to green player with an arrow pointing in the right direction, with four top 20 finishes in his last six PGA Tour events. He has also finished exactly 10th in each of his two prior trips to this very event, so it is clear that he can handle the heat and humidity of playing in this part of the world. An underrated angle might be the fact that Cabrera-Bello also had finishes of 4th, 3rd, and 22nd here from playing this course in previous European Tour events (from 2011 to 2013). Any way you slice it, it’s clear that he likes this place, and he’s one of my favorite GPP options of the week.
Top Play on the Board
Thomas is the clear-cut class of this field, and it isn’t even close. It’s hard to quantify just how large the talent gap is from Thomas to the rest of the field. You don’t see gaps like this is most PGA Tour events. I don’t care what his projected ownership is going to be; I will be prioritizing Thomas in a ton of lineup builds. He is long off the tee, is a birdie-maker, and loves this place. He has finished 1st, 1st, and 17th in three trips to TPC Kuala Lumpur, and that’s no small feat. Don’t be surprised if he makes it three in four trips. I will likely put him in about 50% of my GPP builds this week.
One hour and fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over an hour until roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front this morning. Outside of the Abraham Ancer withdrawal from earlier in the week, there is no news to report ahead of the first round. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. Golf ownership numbers will be up and running within five minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out Results DB to see how your percentages stack up vs the field.
Peter Uihlein flying under the radar
Peter Uihlein arrives at Silverado Country Club with a year of PGA Tour experience under his belt. After starting his 2018 season with a missed cut at this event Uihlein posted 8 top 25 or better finishes in 16 made cuts. Regarded in many circles a talented young player on tour, Uihlein has the game to be a winner on tour. With a ton of buzz going the way of new players on tour, Uihlein represents a great opportunity to buy low on a very talented golfer. Ranked inside the top 70 in both the official world ranking and last year’s final FedEx Cup race Uihlein makes for a great tournament play at low predicted ownership. With many in the industry using the stars and scrubs lineup approach for the week, players in the mid-range like Uihlein will simply garnish lower ownership in spite of potential upside. Uihlein is a player that many expect to win on tour, and as we have seen in the past few seasons, the wraparound season is a great place for a young player to take a big step in their career.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Weather update for The Safeway Open
Kevin Roth’s weather report for the first PGA Tour event of the new season is up in the main forum. For now, it looks like the moderate windy weather in the forecast should be in play for both tee time waves. Each of the first two days Roth calls for winds to increase as the day progresses with gust possibly reaching 20 mph. With no real advantage apparent in either wave, it looks like we can cross weather off our list in preparation for The Safeway Open.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report