10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 4-30-2016
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, April 30, 2016.
1. Ryan Braun has a career .298 ISO against fly ball pitchers; that’s the third-best mark among active hitters, behind only Giancarlo Stanton (.314) and David Ortiz (.301). He also ranks third among active hitters in ISO against LHP with a .292 mark, this time behind Stanton (.328) and Josh Donaldson (.308). On Saturday, he’ll face Marlins’ lefty Wei-Yin Chen. Two things we know about Chen: he’s a lefty with some serious platoon splits, and he’s a fly ball pitcher. Neither of these two facts bode well for him on Saturday against the Brewers. Oh, and he gives up the long ball – since the start of 2015, Chen’s 29 homers allowed to righties is second-most in MLB. In Miller Park, he’ll take on a Brewers team loaded with righty power bats, with Braun leading the charge. Given the size of the slate and the volume of gas cannery taking the hill (Holland, Simon, Rusin), the Brewers make for an interesting, potentially low-owned stack.
2. Even in a game with a high run total, even when he has the platoon advantage, even in a great hitting environment…it’s getting harder and harder to roster Albert Pujols. He has 14 hits in the month of April, and barring a three-hit performance on Saturday, he’ll set a career low for hits in April. His wOBA of .261 is ranked 173rd in MLB, tying him with Nick Ahmed. And perhaps most alarmingly, he has a 31.0% hard contact rate, the seventh-highest in MLB and just a few ticks below guys like Billy Burns and and Alcides Escobar.
3. On the other side of the same game, Rougned Odor is in a prime spot, especially if he’s leading off against Angels’ righty Matt Shoemaker as expected. Shoemaker has one of the highest fly ball rates in the majors, and Odor crushes fly ball pitchers to the tune of a .303 ISO since the start of 2015 (in a fairly decent sample of 192 PAs). That mark ranks 13th in MLB during that span, tying him with Jose Bautista and placing him ahead of guys like Joey Votto, Miguel Sano, Alex Rodriguez, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado, and Kris Bryant.
4. Jacob deGrom has allowed just two home runs at CitiField in 101 innings of work dating back to the start of 2015. That’s the lowest total for any pitcher who threw more than 90 innings in his home park. It’s also the fewest HRs allowed in a season by any pitcher in CitiField history (minimum 60 IP).
5. After missing his last start with a blister, Joe Ross makes another start for the Nationals, and while it’s tempting to view him as a mid-range option given his relative consistency (in his career, he’s only given up 3+ earned runs on three occasions), he’s a dangerous play against a Cardinals team that leads MLB in wRC+ (129), wOBA (.372), and ISO (.233) against RHP this year. One more note about the Cardinals: they’ve scored 10+ runs on six different occasions this year. The only other team to do that more than three times is the Rockies.
6. Zack Greinke has allowed seven earned runs in two of his three home starts this season (and the other was no picnic either, as he allowed four earned to the Cubs). Prior to this year, he hadn’t allowed seven earned in a start since May 26, 2012.
7. David Wright has added a lot more swing-and-miss to his game in 2016. He’s only making contact with 25.0% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is the worst mark in MLB. That’s partially responsible for his 34.6 K% – only Justin Upton (40.0%), Trevor Story (37.0%), and Mike Napoli (37.6%) are fanning at a higher rate than Wright. It may not matter on Saturday, as Wright takes on Matt Cain and his 16.8 K%, but it’s certainly something to monitor moving forward.
8. Jaime Garcia hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a home game since June 20, 2014. That’s a streak of 12 consecutive starts. He’s not exactly Clayton Kershaw in the strikeout department, but he’s not Mark Buehrle, either; Garcia sees a slight boost in strikeouts at home, and during that 13-game home streak, he’s fanning a more-than-respectable 9.3 batters per nine.
9. It could be a monster day for Cubs lefties. Not only does Julio Teheran get hit hard by righties (.388 wOBA, 1.92 HR/9, 34.2% hard contact rate), but he can’t strike them out, either; his 14.9 K% is fourth-worst among SPs on Saturday’s slate. It can be tough to fit all the Cubs into your lineup, but if Tommy La Stella is manning the hot corner on Saturday (and he should be against the right-handed Teheran), with nine hits in 24 at-bats against RHPs this year, he’s a viable salary saver in a potent lineup.
10. Chris Archer returned to form in his last start, striking out 10 Orioles without issuing any free passes. The last time he made a start without allowing any walks was on July 29, 2015. Despite the positive turn for Archer, he’s still fifth-worst in MLB average exit velocity (96.57). Sure, the amount of predictive value in exit velocity (especially in such a small sample) is up for debate. But when you see your $10K pitcher in close proximity to Bud Norris, Mike Leake, and Wily Peralta on any list, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence (and those three are only slightly worse than Archer in average exit velo). And then there’s the whole Blue Jays thing. For me, Archer’s risk is too great to rely on him in anything more than a deep GPP.