10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 5-9-2016
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, May 9, 2016.
1. In the 27 games leading up to the Nationals’ most recent series against the Cubs, Bryce Harper had been walked 17 times in 113 PAs. In that four-game series, Harper was walked 13 times (including six in yesterday’s 13-inning contest) in 18 PAs, raising his season walk rate by more than half, from 15.0% to 22.9%. Given that the Cubs swept the series, it’s hard to imagine other managers not following Joe Maddon’s lead, which could significantly lower Harper’s upside moving forward. Even in a plus matchup against a homer-prone pitcher in Anibal Sanchez, it’s hard to justify paying top dollar for Harper (especially in a Coors slate).
2. In four career starts against the Astros, Corey Kluber has exploited Houston’s strikeout tendencies (11.3 K/9 in those starts) while avoiding their home run power (just one home run allowed). The 1.48 ERA he’s posted against the Astros represents the lowest mark against any team Kluber has faced, excluding those teams he’s faced only one time. It’s always tough to pull the trigger on a pitcher against the Astros (particularly with 3-4 other aces all taking the hill), but it’s a bit more palatable given that Kluber, in his last start, tossed a complete game shutout against a similarly power-heavy, righty-heavy Detroit Tigers offense.
3. Aaron Sanchez has faced 321 right-handed batters in his career, and not one of them has managed to hit a home run off him. Sanchez’s 86.2 IP against righties represents the longest any pitcher in the history of MLB has lasted without giving up a homer to a RHB. The .193 wOBA, .384 OPS, and 17.5 Hard% aren’t bad, either. Against a Giants team that can load up on lefties, Sanchez isn’t in an ideal matchup on Monday. Still, his dominance against righties is reason enough to not use Buster Posey or Matt Duffy or Hunter Pence or Mac Williamson (just kidding) as a plus one.
4. Steven Matz is the only starter in MLB since the start of 2015 to maintain a strikeout rate north of 24% despite having a swinging strike rate below 8.0%. His 7.5 SwStr% this year is third-lowest on this slate – only Jon Niese and Tyler Wilson induce fewer swings and misses.
5. If you’re looking for a non-Coors pitcher to attack on Monday, look no further than Milwaukee’s Wily Peralta. Peralta is one of just two pitchers in MLB since the start of 2015 to allow a .400 wOBA to both LHB and RHB (minimum 40 IP against each handedness). The other is Jerome Williams (and if you played MLB DFS at all last year, you remember Jerome Williams). In his last start, against the same Miami team he’ll face today, Peralta somehow still earned a win despite giving up five earned runs and a career-high 13 hits. It was the first time since 2012 that a pitcher allowed 13+ hits and still earned the win – Roy Oswalt did it on June 27 of that year.
6. One of the many challenges Peralta will face on Monday (apart from the general lack of baseball acumen and this guy) is an improved Christian Yelich, who is a top-10 player in wOBA this year – his .427 mark ranks ahead of guys like Bryce Harper, Ryan Braun, David Ortiz, and Josh Donaldson. It’s worth noting, though, that there’s some luck involved – Yelich is riding a .392 BABIP this year, and 1577 PAs into his career, his .367 BABIP is the highest mark ever for a player with a minimum 1000 career PAs.
7. Anthony Rizzo remains one of the safest cash game options in baseball. Over the past 14 days, he leads MLB with a .577 wOBA, and he’s one of four players in MLB to have a wOBA north of .400 and a sub-10.0% strikeout rate. He joins Ben Zobrist (.458 wOBA, 8.9 K%), Jose Altuve (.458 wOBA, 7.1 K%), Albert Pujols (.407 wOBA, 5.9 K%), and Ryan Braun (.405 wOBA, 8.5 K%). In addition to the high floor, Rizzo’s got as much upside as anyone in baseball, holding a .473 ISO against RHP which leads MLB (and it’s not close – Chris Carter ranks a distant second with a .420 ISO in that split).
8. Since the start of 2014, Felix Hernandez is one of three qualified starters (if you throw out Robert Stephenson and his 18.0 IP) to have allowed a sub-.200 batting average at home. His .198 average allowed is only bettered by Jake Arrieta (.175 average at home) and Clayton Kershaw (.182). On Monday, he takes on a Rays team that strikes out at a 26.6% clip against righties, the worst mark in MLB. Still, it’s tough to go all in on Hernandez these days, given his propensity to walk batters (11.5 BB%, seventh-highest in MLB) coupled with the fact that the Rays have been stellar on the road in both the on-base department (.334 wOBA, ranks 8th in MLB) and the power department (.197 ISO, ranks 2nd).
9. We all know that Jon Lester can’t throw to first base (that is, unless he’s throwing a glove). But another pitcher on Monday’s slate, Kansas City’s Chris Young, has also been dreadful at holding runners. In fact, on a per-inning basis, he’s been nearly as bad. Since the start of 2015, Lester has allowed 47 steals in 245.0 IP (.19 SB/inning), while Young has allowed 23 in 153.0 IP (.15 SB/inning). Given that the Yankees run often and are successful doing so (23 steals in 28 attempts for an 82.14 SB%, ranked second in MLB), they make for an interesting under-the-radar stack on Monday.
10. One player on Monday’s slate represents the perfect confluence of DFS narratives. That player is Josh Reddick. For those who buy into hot streaks, Reddick’s your man – he’s recorded hits in his last eight at-bats. He’s got BvP in his favor, as well, going a career 4-for-9 with a home run against Clay Buchholz. And if you’re into revenge narratives, don’t forget that Reddick was traded from Boston to Oakland in 2012. I’m afraid to check if it’s Reddick’s birthday or not – if it is, it just might break RotoGrinders.